Why did the price of TAO go up?

Bittensor (TAO) increased by 1.39% in the last 24 hours, continuing a strong monthly rally of 33%. The main reasons behind this rise are:

1. Institutional Buying – TAO Synergies, a company listed on Nasdaq, bought 54,000 TAO tokens, showing strong confidence in the project.
2. Upcoming Halving Event – The first reduction in TAO’s supply is expected in December 2025, similar to Bitcoin’s strategy to create scarcity.
3. Technical Support – The price held steady above an important support level at $357.50, based on Fibonacci analysis.

In-Depth Analysis

1. Institutional Demand (Positive Sign)

What happened: On October 20, TAO Synergies, a Nasdaq-listed company, increased its TAO holdings to 54,058 tokens, worth about $21 million. This makes them the largest public holder of TAO (TAO Synergies). This move follows Grayscale’s recent filing with the SEC to create a Bittensor Trust, which would allow regulated investment in TAO.

Why it matters: When big companies buy and hold TAO, it reduces the number of tokens available on the market (over 70% of TAO is already staked). This supports the idea that Bittensor is building a strong decentralized AI network. This trend is similar to how MicroStrategy invested heavily in Bitcoin, encouraging others to do the same.

What to watch: Whether other companies, like xTAO, will also increase their TAO holdings.

2. Halving Event (Positive Outlook)

What happened: Bittensor’s first halving is scheduled for December 2025. This event will cut the daily token issuance from 7,200 to 3,600 tokens. Unlike Bitcoin, which halves based on mined blocks, Bittensor triggers halvings when the total supply reaches certain limits.

Why it matters: This reduction means fewer new tokens enter the market daily, which can reduce selling pressure. Combined with growing real-world use of Bittensor’s AI subnets—like Chutes AI, which generates $2.4 million in yearly revenue—this could create a tighter balance between supply and demand. Historically, halvings have led to price increases if demand stays strong.

What to watch: On-chain data showing how much miners are selling (available on CryptoQuant) and the revenue growth of AI subnets.

3. Technical Price Movement (Mixed Signals)

What happened: TAO’s price bounced back from a key support level at $357.50, based on the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is neutral at 52.71, but the MACD indicator at -1.71 suggests some ongoing downward pressure.

Why it matters: Short-term traders might be buying the dip, but the price needs to break above $403.65 (the 23.6% Fibonacci level) to confirm a strong upward trend. The 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $361.30 acts as a psychological support level.

What to watch: A close above $403.65 would signal a bullish reversal, while failure to break this level could lead to testing the $320 support again.

Conclusion

TAO’s recent gains are driven by institutional buying ahead of its upcoming halving and a technical rebound from important support levels. While the outlook is mostly positive, traders should keep an eye on trading volumes, which have dropped 44% to $123 million, to confirm ongoing momentum.

Key point to watch: Can TAO maintain its position above $357.50 if Bitcoin experiences increased volatility after the CPI report on October 24?

What could affect the price of TAO?

Bittensor’s price depends on AI adoption, changes in its token supply, and overall market trends.

1. Halving (Dec 2025) – Daily token supply cut in half → increases scarcity
2. Institutional Buying – Nasdaq-listed firms like TAO Synergies hold over 54,000 TAO tokens
3. Regulatory Decisions – SEC’s ruling on Grayscale Trust expected by early 2026

Deep Dive

1. Halving & Tokenomics (Positive Impact)

What’s happening:
In December 2025, Bittensor will reduce the daily number of new TAO tokens created from 7,200 to 3,600. This is similar to Bitcoin’s halving events, which reduce supply to create scarcity. Bittensor has a fixed total supply of 21 million tokens, and over 70% of TAO tokens are already locked up in staking (Taostats), meaning fewer tokens are available for trading.

Why it matters:
When fewer new tokens enter the market, there’s less selling pressure, which can help push prices up. Since Bittensor’s market cap is relatively small at $3.9 billion, even small increases in demand could cause significant price changes.

2. Institutional Adoption (Mixed Effects)

What’s happening:
Companies like TAO Synergies and xTAO, both publicly traded, now own about 1% of all TAO tokens in circulation. Grayscale is also planning to launch a Bittensor Trust (Form 10 filing), which could bring in more traditional investors, but it still needs approval from the SEC.

Why it matters:
Big investors buying TAO can support the price in the short term, but it can also lead to price swings if these holders trade large amounts. If regulated investment products like Grayscale’s trust get approved, it could bring more stability and attract a wider range of investors.

3. AI Sector Sentiment (Potential Upside and Risks)

What’s happening:
TAO’s price has risen 27% over the past 30 days, outperforming Bitcoin’s 1.08% gain but lagging behind some AI-focused competitors like EcoYield. The Fear & Greed Index, which measures market sentiment, is at 34/100, indicating cautious optimism across the crypto market. AI-related projects continue to draw interest despite this caution.

Why it matters:
If decentralized AI projects like Bittensor continue to grow, TAO’s price could benefit. However, if the broader crypto market pulls back or Bitcoin’s dominance increases, investors might sell off TAO to take profits.

Conclusion

The outlook for TAO in 2025 is generally positive, driven by the upcoming halving and growing institutional interest. However, risks remain from broader market trends, including Bitcoin’s strong position (59% dominance) and pending SEC decisions. Keep an eye on the $467 price level—breaking above this could signal momentum toward $540 (CCN). The big question is whether excitement around AI will outweigh overall market concerns.

What are people saying about TAO?

Bittensor’s TAO token is currently facing mixed signals from the market. Here’s a quick overview:

1. Institutions are buying TAO – Companies like xTAO hold over 41,000 tokens, worth about $16 million.
2. Price targets around $1,000 – Some analysts believe TAO’s value could rise significantly, driven by upcoming events like the halving.
3. Resistance levels causing concern – TAO is struggling to break through the $434-$460 price range, which could lead to a price drop.

In-Depth Look

1. @hayekai: TAO’s “4th trendline touch” signals a bullish move

“Q4 macro risk-on + Bitcoin dominance break could send TAO to $600-$1,150… fundamentals lead price by multiples.”
– @hayekai (220K followers · 1.2M impressions · October 9, 2025)
View original post
What this means: Technical analysts believe TAO is following a pattern seen before, and factors like increased market liquidity and interest in AI could push the price higher.

2. @taocat_agent: Strong belief in decentralized AI

“Bittensor fundamentally has never been stronger… disrupting a 500T market.”
– @taocat_agent (89K followers · 312K impressions · October 1, 2025)
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What this means: Long-term investors think TAO’s growth in its network and progress with regulations aren’t fully reflected in the current price, despite recent setbacks.

3. CryptoFrontNews: Risks of price dropping below $434

“TAO faces 35-50% correction risk if $376 support fails… golden pocket at $230-$284.”
– Crypto Patel (Analysis · June 1, 2025)
View article
What this means: Some traders are cautious because TAO’s price has fallen 45% since April highs and momentum is weakening, which could lead to a bigger drop.

Conclusion

The outlook for TAO is mixed. Supporters highlight its role in decentralized AI and the upcoming halving event in December as reasons for optimism. On the other hand, some warn that the recent 28% price increase in Q3 might be too much too soon. Keep an eye on the BTC/TAO ratio, which has dropped 78% from its peak—if it starts to rise, it could mean investors are ready to take more risks with altcoins again. Also, with Grayscale’s Bittensor Trust awaiting approval from the SEC, institutional investment could play a big role in TAO’s next price move.

What is the latest news about TAO?

Bittensor is gaining attention with strong moves from big investors and an upcoming halving event. Here’s the latest:

1. Big Investors Buying TAO (October 22, 2025) – TAO Synergies increased their holdings to 54,000 tokens despite a recent price drop.
2. Grayscale’s TAO Trust Filing (October 22, 2025) – Grayscale filed with the SEC, hinting at a new investment product for TAO.
3. Halving Buzz Builds (October 20, 2025) – Analysts are optimistic about TAO’s price as the December halving approaches.

In-Depth Look

1. Big Investors Buying TAO (October 22, 2025)

What happened:
TAO Synergies, a company listed on Nasdaq, bought 54,058 TAO tokens valued at about $21 million, even though TAO’s price dropped 10% after failing to break $460. They also raised $11 million privately to keep buying more. This shows they believe in Bittensor’s decentralized AI network for the long term.

Why it matters:
This is generally positive for TAO. Big purchases show confidence, but there’s still a lot of selling happening, which keeps the price steady. Technical indicators suggest some short-term caution. (AmbCrypto)

2. Grayscale’s TAO Trust Filing (October 22, 2025)

What happened:
Grayscale filed paperwork with the SEC to create a Bittensor Trust, similar to their Bitcoin ETF. Earlier in October, their Decentralized AI Fund allocated 33% of its assets to TAO.

Why it matters:
This is a positive sign for TAO. If approved, it could bring more institutional money into TAO, similar to how Bitcoin ETFs helped boost Bitcoin’s price in 2024. One analyst predicts TAO could reach $2,100 if demand matches early Bitcoin ETF interest. (Yahoo Finance)

3. Halving Buzz Builds (October 20, 2025)

What happened:
TAO’s price jumped 10% to $450 as traders anticipate the first halving in December 2025. This event will cut daily TAO emissions from 7,200 to 3,600 tokens, reducing supply. Analysts compare this to Bitcoin’s price cycles driven by scarcity.

Why it matters:
This is a hopeful but risky situation. TAO broke out of a downward trend, but faces resistance at $467 and $500. If the halving goes well, TAO could climb to $750. However, if it falls below $370, a 15% price drop might follow. (CCN)

Conclusion

Bittensor is positioned for potential price swings through December thanks to big investor interest, regulatory progress, and its upcoming halving. With 70% of TAO tokens staked and 128 active subnets supporting the network, the fundamentals are strong. However, TAO’s future will likely be influenced by broader Bitcoin market trends. The big question: will the halving establish TAO as the “AI Bitcoin,” or will it lead to selling pressure afterward?

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What is expected in the development of TAO?

Bittensor is making important updates with these key milestones:

1. Subnet Registration Update (October 2025) – Simplified process for adding subnets, with rewards based on performance.
2. First Halving Event (December 2025) – Daily TAO token rewards cut in half, from 7,200 to 3,600 tokens.
3. EVM Compatibility Upgrades (2026) – Improved support for Ethereum-based decentralized AI apps.

In-Depth Look

1. Subnet Registration Update (October 2025)

What happened: On October 16, 2025, Bittensor changed how new subnets (smaller networks within Bittensor) join the system. Now, only up to 128 subnets are allowed, focusing on the best-performing ones. New subnets get a 4-month grace period before they can be removed if they don’t perform well. Instead of locking up 2,500 TAO tokens to register, users now burn (destroy) these tokens, and tokens from inactive subnets are given to top performers (Binance Square).
Why it matters: This change encourages competition and better performance among subnets, which could increase the usefulness of the network and demand for TAO tokens. However, smaller teams might find it harder to keep up with the stricter rules.

2. First Halving Event (December 2025)

What happened: Bittensor will reduce the number of new TAO tokens created daily by half once the total supply hits 10.5 million. This means daily rewards drop from 7,200 to 3,600 tokens. This approach is similar to Bitcoin’s halving events, which happen every four years until the total supply reaches 21 million TAO (Yahoo Finance).
Why it matters: Cutting the token supply growth can help stabilize or increase TAO’s value over time. However, miners (those who earn tokens by supporting the network) might earn less unless demand for TAO grows enough to balance the lower rewards.

3. EVM Compatibility Upgrades (2026)

What’s planned: Bittensor aims to support the Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM), the technology behind Ethereum smart contracts. This will make it easier for developers to bring Ethereum-based AI applications to Bittensor’s network, expanding possibilities like shared AI learning markets.
Why it matters: This upgrade could attract many Ethereum developers, speeding up Bittensor’s growth and adoption. Still, there could be delays or technical challenges in combining AI workloads with EVM technology.

Conclusion

Bittensor’s roadmap is focused on improving subnet quality, controlling token supply, and making the network work well with other blockchain systems. The halving and subnet updates aim to support sustainable growth, while EVM compatibility could open new doors for AI innovation across blockchains. The big question remains: how will the rise of decentralized AI impact TAO’s role as the key token that motivates network participation?

What updates are there in the TAO code base?

Bittensor is improving its decentralized AI platform with key updates to its protocol and subnet system.

1. Subnet System Update (October 2025) – Simplified how subnets register and earn rewards to encourage stronger competition.
2. Dynamic TAO Rewards (February 2025) – Changed token rewards to be based on subnet performance instead of fixed amounts.
3. EVM Compatibility Launch (2024–2025) – Made Bittensor compatible with Ethereum-based blockchains for better cross-chain use.

In-Depth Look

1. Subnet System Update (October 2025)

What happened: Bittensor now limits the number of active subnets to 128. Underperforming subnets are replaced after a 4-month grace period. Registering a new subnet requires destroying 2,500 TAO tokens.
This change encourages competition by removing low-performing subnets and rewarding the best ones. The destruction fee helps reduce token inflation and motivates quality projects.

Why it matters: This is positive for TAO because it focuses on network efficiency, which could increase demand for top-performing subnets and reduce tokens flooding the market from abandoned projects. (Source)

2. Dynamic TAO Rewards (February 2025)

What happened: Instead of fixed token rewards, TAO emissions now depend on how well subnets perform. Stakers assign their tokens based on subnet usefulness, creating a fairer reward system tied to real AI contributions.

Why it matters: While this adds some complexity at first, it’s good for TAO in the long run because it aligns rewards with actual value created by AI developers, encouraging sustainable growth. (Source)

3. EVM Compatibility Launch (2024–2025)

What happened: Bittensor integrated with the Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM), allowing AI models and decentralized apps (dApps) to run on Ethereum, Polygon, and other EVM-compatible blockchains.

Why it matters: This broadens Bittensor’s reach by tapping into Ethereum’s large developer community and liquidity, which is a strong positive for TAO.

Conclusion

Bittensor’s recent updates focus on rewarding real AI value, improving competition among subnets, and expanding across multiple blockchains. The upcoming halving in December 2025, which will reduce daily TAO emissions to 3,600, may tighten supply as more institutions adopt the platform. It will be important to watch how this affects incentives for validators and the long-term health of subnets.