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What could affect the price of TAO?

Bittensor’s price is influenced by a mix of reduced token supply from its upcoming halving and ongoing market challenges.

  1. Halving (Dec 2025) – The daily new tokens released will be cut in half, testing how supply and demand balance out.
  2. Institutional Interest – Big investors like Grayscale and some companies are buying in, but overall market uncertainty remains.
  3. Technical Signals – Chart patterns suggest a possible price rebound, but resistance near $378 could be tough to break.

Deep Dive

1. Halving & Supply Changes (Potentially Positive)

What’s happening:
On December 12, 2025, Bittensor will undergo its first halving event. This means the daily number of new TAO tokens created will drop from 7,200 to 3,600. This is similar to Bitcoin’s halving events, which reduce inflation and can increase scarcity. After the halving, the yearly inflation rate will fall to about 12.6%, down from 25.2%, assuming demand stays steady. Past examples like Bitcoin’s 2012 halving show this can lead to price increases, but because TAO’s market cap is smaller (around $3 billion), prices might be more volatile.

Why it matters:
With fewer new tokens entering the market, selling pressure from miners and validators may ease, potentially pushing prices up if buyers remain interested. However, new network subgroups (called subnets) might find it harder to get liquidity because their rewards (Alpha emissions) will also be cut in half (Bittensor Blog).

2. Institutional Buying vs. Market Mood (Mixed Outlook)

What’s happening:
Some companies, like xTAO and TAO Synergies, have invested millions in TAO tokens, showing strong institutional demand. Grayscale’s Bittensor Trust, expected to launch in October 2025, will also provide a way for investors to get exposure. However, the overall crypto market mood is cautious, with the Fear & Greed Index at 22 out of 100 as of December 3, 2025, indicating that many investors are wary.

Why it matters:
Corporate purchases help support the price, but broader market uncertainty—affected by factors like Federal Reserve interest rate decisions and Bitcoin’s dominance at about 58.8%—may slow down gains in altcoins like TAO until investors feel more confident (DL News).

3. Chart Patterns & AI Sector Trends (Short-Term Neutral to Bearish)

What’s happening:
TAO is currently trading below important moving averages (like the 200-day average at $364.59), but it’s trying to break out of a “falling wedge” pattern, which can signal a reversal. If TAO closes above $378.36 (a key Fibonacci level), it might reach $409. If it fails, the price could drop to around $280. The AI sector, where TAO is categorized, is ranked 16th out of 24 in weekly performance, and TAO’s price has fallen 39% over the past month.

Why it matters:
For TAO to recover, it needs to break above $366 resistance. However, weak performance across the AI sector and low trading volume (5.07%) suggest limited upward momentum until interest in AI-related projects picks up again (CCN).

Conclusion

TAO’s price in the near future will depend on how well the market absorbs the supply cut from the halving and whether institutional buying can offset broader market challenges. While technical indicators point to a possible price rebound, ongoing concerns about the AI sector and Bitcoin’s dominance could hold TAO back. Keep an eye on subnet adoption rates and TAO’s price volatility over the next 30 days (currently down 39.46%) to gauge momentum.


What are people saying about TAO?

The Bittensor (TAO) community is debating whether the price will hit $600 or test lower support levels. Here’s a quick summary of the main points:

  1. Bullish signals: Traders are watching for a breakout above $400 as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) cools down from being overbought.
  2. Halving event: In December 2025, the daily supply of TAO will be cut to 3,600 coins, creating scarcity that could drive prices up.
  3. Institutional interest: Big players hold 41,538 TAO in xTAO, and Grayscale has filed paperwork for a TAO ETF, signaling growing institutional demand.
  4. Bearish pressure: The price dropped 39% in the past month, testing support at $256 amid a rotation away from AI-related tokens.

Deep Dive

1. @Nicat_eth: Volatility Raises Doubts on AI Infrastructure

"TAO dropped to $256 (-12.8% in 24 hours) despite 30+ active subnets. The market is questioning if AI infrastructure valuations are ahead of actual adoption."
– @Nicat_eth (7.5K followers · 15K impressions · 2025-12-01 17:48 UTC)
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What this means: The recent price drop reflects skepticism about whether Bittensor’s network growth (over 30 subnetworks supporting AI models) justifies its $2.68 billion valuation, especially as investors take profits from AI-related tokens.

2. @hayekfritzl: Macro Trends Support $600+ Targets

"Q4 liquidity and Bitcoin losing dominance could push TAO to $600-$1,150. Fundamentals are leading price action — expect the gap to close soon."
– @hayekfritzl (30.3K followers · 42K impressions · 2025-10-09 14:39 UTC)
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What this means: The bullish case depends on Bitcoin losing market share to alternative coins like TAO, which is benefiting from the growing AI narrative. Technical analysis shows TAO is testing a long-term trendline that has previously led to 200%+ rallies.

3. @taocat_agent: Network Strength Undervalued

"Price is lagging, but Bittensor’s subnet architecture is stronger than ever. It’s on track to become a top 15 cryptocurrency this cycle."
– @taocat_agent (11.1K followers · 8.2K impressions · 2025-10-01 15:46 UTC)
View original post
What this means: Long-term holders believe the current price of $288 (down 52% year-over-year) doesn’t reflect the active development of Bittensor’s network and its competitive advantage in decentralized machine learning.

Conclusion

The outlook for $TAO is mixed. On one hand, the upcoming halving in December will reduce supply, which is typically bullish. On the other hand, there are concerns about how quickly the network is being adopted. Technical indicators suggest bearish momentum with resistance around $335, but institutional moves like Grayscale’s ETF filing and xTAO accumulation show confidence from big investors. Watch the $256 support level closely — if it breaks, prices could fall toward $200. If it holds, it might signal accumulation ahead of the halving event and potential price volatility.


What is the latest news about TAO?

Bittensor is facing important regulatory changes and technical challenges as key events approach. Here’s a quick update:

  1. SEC Rule Change (December 2, 2025) – New rules could make it easier for crypto companies like Bittensor to raise money, encouraging more institutional investors.
  2. Halving Event (December 12, 2025) – The first halving will cut daily TAO token rewards in half, which could affect supply and demand.
  3. Technical Signs of Recovery (November 28, 2025) – A chart pattern suggests TAO might bounce back if it breaks through resistance at $329.

In-Depth Look

1. SEC Rule Change (December 2, 2025)

What’s happening: The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) plans to introduce an “innovation exemption” for crypto companies. This aims to reduce legal risks and make it easier for these companies to go public. While this isn’t specific to Bittensor, it could help projects like TAO that combine AI and crypto by simplifying fundraising and compliance.
Why it matters: This is good news for TAO’s future, as clearer rules may attract traditional investors. However, the exact details are still unclear, so there’s some uncertainty in the short term (BlockBeats).

2. Halving Event (December 12, 2025)

What’s happening: Bittensor will have its first “halving,” reducing the daily TAO tokens given out from 7,200 to 3,600. Unlike Bitcoin, which halves based on blocks mined, Bittensor’s halving happens when the total supply hits 10.5 million TAO (half of the maximum supply).
Why it matters: This could have mixed effects. Less token supply might support prices by reducing selling pressure, but smaller network participants might earn less, which could slow growth. Historically, TAO’s price rose 220% before the halving in October 2025, but how it performs afterward is still unknown (Yahoo Finance).

3. Technical Signs of Recovery (November 28, 2025)

What’s happening: After a 47% drop to $280, TAO’s price formed a “falling wedge” pattern, which often signals a potential rebound. The Money Flow Index (MFI), a tool that tracks buying and selling pressure, shows buyers accumulating at these lower prices. If TAO breaks above $329, it could rise to $409 by December.
Why it matters: This is a positive short-term sign, but if TAO can’t hold above $329, it might fall back to $280. Trading volume has dropped 10% weekly, indicating cautious investor sentiment ahead of the halving (CCN).

Conclusion

Bittensor is at a critical point with regulatory changes, a supply cut from halving, and technical signals all coming together. The SEC’s supportive stance and reduced token supply could help TAO recover, but the recent 39% monthly price drop shows investors remain cautious. The big question is whether decentralized AI projects like Bittensor will regain momentum after the halving or if broader market challenges will keep prices steady for now.


What is expected in the development of TAO?

Bittensor’s roadmap highlights key upgrades and growth plans for its ecosystem.

  1. First Halving (December 12, 2025) – Cuts daily TAO token issuance in half, reducing supply.
  2. Subnet Expansion & EVM Compatibility – Growing decentralized AI networks and enabling interaction with Ethereum-based apps.
  3. Institutional Adoption – Introduction of investment products and corporate purchases increasing TAO’s market activity.

In-Depth Look

1. First Halving (December 12, 2025)

What’s happening: Bittensor will reduce the number of new TAO tokens created daily from 7,200 to 3,600. This is similar to Bitcoin’s halving events, designed to limit supply over time.

Why it matters:

2. Subnet Expansion & EVM Compatibility

What’s happening: Bittensor’s network now supports 128 specialized AI subnets, such as those for sports predictions and large language model training. It also recently became compatible with Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM), allowing AI models to work with Ethereum-based decentralized apps (dApps).

Why it matters:

3. Institutional Adoption Wave

What’s happening: Several milestones have been reached, including Grayscale filing for a TAO Trust, Safello launching a staked TAO exchange-traded product (ETP) on the SIX Swiss Exchange, and Nasdaq-listed companies like xTAO buying over $15 million in TAO for their corporate reserves.

Why it matters:

Conclusion

Bittensor’s roadmap carefully balances reducing token supply (halving), expanding real-world use cases (subnets and EVM compatibility), and attracting institutional investors. These factors support long-term growth, but success depends on maintaining decentralization while meeting market demand.

Will TAO’s reduced token supply after halving outweigh the selling pressure from expanding AI subnets?


What updates are there in the TAO code base?

Bittensor’s latest updates focus on improving token rewards, developer tools, and cross-chain AI capabilities.

  1. Dynamic TAO Upgrade (February 2025) – Changed how rewards are given, now based on subnet performance to better motivate network participants.
  2. EVM Compatibility Rollout (2024–2025) – Made it possible for AI models to work across different blockchain platforms like Ethereum.
  3. Subnet SDK Launch (August 2025) – Provided developers with easier tools to create AI services quickly.

Deep Dive

1. Dynamic TAO Upgrade (February 2025)

What happened: Instead of giving out a fixed amount of TAO tokens, rewards are now based on how well each subnet performs. Subnets are specialized networks focused on specific AI tasks. Validators (network participants who help secure the system) now adjust their stakes depending on which subnets are doing well.

This creates a competitive environment where the best-performing AI networks get more support, encouraging higher quality AI development.

Why it matters: This change is positive for TAO because it rewards useful AI work rather than just holding tokens passively. It could attract businesses looking for specialized AI solutions. (Source)

2. EVM Compatibility (2024–2025)

What happened: Bittensor subnets can now communicate with Ethereum and other blockchains that use the Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM). This means AI models on Bittensor can support decentralized apps (dApps) on these platforms.

The update added cross-chain messaging and standard APIs, allowing subnets like Targon Compute (which focuses on financial modeling) to run smart contracts on Ethereum while training AI on Bittensor.

Why it matters: This is somewhat positive for TAO because it opens up new use cases and developer options. However, it also means more competition with other AI-focused blockchains. Network performance might be challenged by the increased activity. (Source)

3. Subnet SDK Launch (August 2025)

What happened: Bittensor released a software development kit (SDK) that helps developers launch AI subnets faster. It includes templates and governance tools to simplify the process.

This reduced the time to create a subnet from weeks to days and added protections against spammy or low-quality AI models. As of June 2025, there are 128 active subnets.

Why it matters: This is good news for TAO because it lowers the barrier for developers to build on Bittensor, encouraging more innovation and variety in AI services. (Source)

Conclusion

Bittensor’s recent improvements focus on rewarding valuable AI work, enabling cross-blockchain functionality, and making development easier. With the upcoming TAO halving on December 12, 2025—cutting daily token rewards in half—it remains to be seen if growing subnet adoption will balance out the reduced miner incentives.


Why did the price of TAO go up?

Bittensor (TAO) increased by 3.73% in the last 24 hours, outperforming the overall crypto market, which rose by 2.37%. Here are the main reasons behind this movement:

  1. Halving anticipation – The first TAO halving, expected around December 10–11, could reduce the supply of new tokens.
  2. Institutional ETP momentum – Deutsche Digital Assets launched a staked TAO ETP in Europe, attracting new investors.
  3. Technical rebound – Indicators like RSI and MACD suggest short-term buying interest after a period of overselling.

1. Halving Hype Builds (Positive Impact)

Overview: Bittensor’s first halving is expected around December 10–11, 2025. This event will cut the daily creation of new TAO tokens from 7,200 to 3,600. In the past, similar halvings in other cryptocurrencies have reduced selling pressure and increased scarcity, often leading to price increases.

What this means: With fewer new tokens entering the market, demand could outpace supply if more people continue to use or invest in TAO. Unlike Bitcoin, which halves based on time, TAO’s halving is triggered when a total of 21 million tokens have been created, adding a unique twist to its scarcity.

What to watch: After the halving, pay attention to how validators (those who help secure the network) respond. Will they continue staking their tokens, or will lower rewards affect network security?

2. Institutional ETP Inflows (Positive Impact)

Overview: On October 31, Deutsche Digital Assets and Safello launched Europe’s first staked TAO Exchange-Traded Product (ETP) called STAO on the SIX Swiss Exchange. This product attracted $16 million in investments during its first month, according to Yahoo Finance.

What this means: This regulated investment option makes it easier for traditional investors to gain exposure to TAO, broadening its investor base beyond just crypto enthusiasts. Currently, ETPs hold about 4% of TAO’s circulating supply, based on disclosures from Grayscale’s Bittensor Trust.

3. Technical Rebound From Oversold Zone (Mixed Impact)

Overview: Technical indicators show that TAO’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved up from an oversold level of 37, and the MACD indicator has stabilized. The price has also risen above the 7-day moving average ($290.51) but remains below the 30-day moving average ($332.76), suggesting some caution among traders.

What this means: Short-term traders may be buying TAO after its recent dip, but for a stronger upward trend, the price needs to break above $308, which is a key resistance level based on Fibonacci retracement.

Conclusion

TAO’s recent price increase is driven by excitement around the upcoming halving, growing interest from institutional investors through ETPs, and a technical bounce after being oversold. The key question now is whether the halving will trigger a short-term sell-off or lead to a sustained price rise as supply tightens. Keep an eye on validator activity and ETP investment flows for clearer signals.