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Why did the price of POL fall?

Polygon (POL) dropped 3.09% in the last 24 hours, underperforming the overall crypto market, which fell 1.58%. The main reasons include:

  1. Technical Resistance – Price hit a key moving average and pulled back ($0.1957 SMA7)
  2. Ecosystem Challenges – Ongoing debates about Ethereum Layer 2 solutions and delays in AggLayer adoption have hurt confidence
  3. Market Caution – The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is at 39 ("Fear"), putting pressure on altcoins

Deep Dive

1. Technical Resistance (Negative Impact)

Overview: Polygon’s price is struggling at its 7-day simple moving average (SMA) of $0.1957 and 30-day SMA of $0.2103. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 42.33, indicating weak buying momentum. The price is also below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level ($0.2233), which is important for confirming a trend reversal.

What this means: Traders likely sold when the price hit these resistance points, pushing the price down. The 24-hour trading volume dropped slightly to $122 million, showing less buying interest. If the price falls below $0.1899 (the 50% Fibonacci level), it could lead to further declines.

Key watch: Whether Polygon can climb back above $0.1965 (current pivot point) in the next two days.

2. Ethereum Layer 2 Governance Debates (Mixed Impact)

Overview: There are ongoing discussions between Polygon and Ethereum leaders about how Layer 2 (L2) solutions are categorized and how value is shared. Vitalik Buterin, Ethereum’s co-founder, praised Base (a Coinbase-backed L2) in September 2025, raising concerns that the Ethereum Foundation might reduce support for Polygon.

What this means: Polygon’s AggLayer aims to work across different blockchains, but delays in integrating it with Polygon PoS (now expected by Q4 2025) have lowered enthusiasm. Some investors are uncertain about the future role of the POL token in this changing ecosystem.

Key watch: Progress on Polygon PoS migrating to AggLayer version 0.3, expected by late October 2025.

3. Broader Altcoin Weakness (Negative Impact)

Overview: The Altcoin Season Index, which measures how altcoins are performing compared to Bitcoin, is at 26, down 60.61% month-over-month. This shows investors are moving money away from mid-sized tokens like POL. Bitcoin’s market dominance rose to 59.24%, up 1.47% from last month, putting more pressure on altcoins.

What this means: Polygon’s recent drop is in line with other Layer 2 tokens:

Additionally, the crypto derivatives market’s open interest fell 6.9% week-over-week to $911 billion, signaling less speculative trading in altcoins.

Conclusion

Polygon’s recent price drop is due to technical challenges, uncertainty in its ecosystem, and a cautious crypto market. Its partnership with Manifold Trading (announced October 28) aims to improve decentralized finance (DeFi) liquidity, but traders are waiting for clear signs like growth in total value locked (TVL) and AggLayer adoption.

Key watch: Whether Polygon can hold above its 2025 low of $0.1267 as Bitcoin’s dominance continues to rise.


What could affect the price of POL?

Polygon is balancing promising technical upgrades with ongoing market doubts.

  1. Network Upgrades (Positive) – Plans to boost transaction speed to 5,000 TPS by October 2025.
  2. DeFi Liquidity (Mixed) – New partnership brings potential, but price faces technical challenges.
  3. Tokenomics Risks (Negative) – Inflation concerns and selling pressure remain.

In-Depth Look

1. Network Throughput Boost (Positive Outlook)

What’s Happening:
Polygon’s upcoming Rio upgrade, set for October 2025, aims to increase its transaction capacity from 1,000 to 5,000 transactions per second (TPS) and reduce transaction finality time from 5 seconds to just 1 second. This is part of their “GigaGas” plan. Earlier this year, the Heimdall v2 update improved network stability by reducing chain reorganizations.

Why It Matters:
Faster and more reliable transactions could attract decentralized apps (dApps) focused on payments and real-world asset tokenization. These sectors helped Polygon reach $1.8 billion in payments volume during Q3 (source). Past upgrades, like the jump to 1,000 TPS in July, temporarily boosted the price of POL by about 9%.

2. DeFi Liquidity and Market Competition (Mixed Signals)

What’s Happening:
Polygon is partnering with Manifold Trading, a quantitative trading firm, to bring institutional-level liquidity to its AggLayer platform by October 2025. However, the price of POL is showing some bearish signs:

Why It Matters:
Manifold’s involvement could reduce slippage (price changes during trades) for decentralized finance (DeFi) platforms like QuickSwap, which recently saw a 13% increase in total value locked (TVL). Despite this, POL’s price is under pressure due to its 2.52% share in derivatives liquidations and competition from Base, Ethereum’s preferred Layer 2 solution.

3. Inflation and Governance Concerns (Negative Outlook)

What’s Happening:
Polygon currently has a 2% annual inflation rate, meaning 200 million new POL tokens are created each year. Some investors are pushing back against this inflation. A proposal expected in October 2025 aims to stop inflation and introduce token buybacks, similar to Binance Coin’s (BNB) deflationary model.

Why It Matters:
With 97.83% of the migration from MATIC to POL complete, staking rewards rely heavily on inflation-driven token emissions. If the proposal to end inflation fails, selling pressure could increase. POL is already trading 41% below its price at the start of the 2024 migration.

Conclusion

Polygon’s near-term success depends on delivering the promised 5,000 TPS upgrade without network issues like the 5-hour outage in September, and managing inflation concerns effectively. While the Manifold partnership and growth in real-world asset tokenization (currently $1.13 billion TVL) offer potential upside, Bitcoin’s dominant 59% market share and POL’s current weak momentum present challenges.


What are people saying about POL?

Polygon’s POL token is at a crossroads, balancing excitement about upcoming upgrades with some ongoing concerns. Here’s the quick summary:

  1. Almost all MATIC tokens have been switched to POL – 97.8% migration is done.
  2. Aiming for 5,000 transactions per second (TPS) – Technical improvements are driving positive expectations.
  3. Growing interest from institutions – Use cases in payments and real-world assets (RWA) are gaining momentum.

In-Depth Look

1. @0xPolygon: Migration Nearly Complete 🟢

“97.83% of MATIC ➔ POL migration done.”
– @0xPolygon (5.2M followers · 12.3K impressions · August 20, 2025, 4:29 PM UTC)
View original post
What this means: This is good news for POL holders because almost all the old MATIC tokens have been converted to POL. This reduces confusion and consolidates the token’s use for staking and transaction fees, making the network cleaner and more efficient.

2. @Tokocrypto: Optimism in Indonesia for a Price Rally 🟢

“Analysts predict POL could double soon! TVL hits $1.23B, 45k+ dApps.”
– @Tokocrypto (892K followers · 7.1K impressions · September 1, 2025, 1:23 PM UTC)
View original post
What this means: Investors in the Asia-Pacific region are increasingly optimistic about POL because the ecosystem is growing, with over $1.23 billion in total value locked (TVL) and more than 45,000 decentralized apps (dApps). However, the price of POL has dropped 41% compared to last year, so some caution remains.

3. Cointelegraph: Calls for Tokenomics Changes 🔴

“Proposal to scrap POL’s 2% inflation and start buybacks to curb sell pressure.”
– Venturefounder (activist investor, 28K forum votes · October 6, 2025, 9:37 PM UTC)
View original post
What this means: Some investors are pushing for changes to how POL is managed. They want to end the current 2% annual inflation rate and instead have the project buy back tokens to reduce selling pressure. This reflects ongoing concerns about the token’s value and supply management.


What is the latest news about POL?

Polygon is advancing through key upgrades and partnerships to strengthen its position in decentralized finance (DeFi) and payment solutions.
1. Manifold Partnership (October 28, 2025) – Institutional liquidity support enhances Polygon’s DeFi ecosystem.
2. Throughput Upgrade (October 28, 2025) – Polygon aims to boost transaction speed to 5,000 transactions per second (TPS) with near-instant finality.
3. Coinbase Delisting (October 14, 2025) – The switch from MATIC to POL is complete, with Coinbase stopping MATIC trading.

In-Depth Look

1. Manifold Partnership (October 28, 2025)

What happened: Polygon Labs teamed up with Manifold Trading, a firm specializing in quantitative trading, to bring advanced liquidity tools to Polygon’s AggLayer platform. This partnership targets issues like scattered liquidity and price swings in DeFi by using high-frequency trading and predictive data analysis. This follows Polygon’s recent Rio upgrade, which lowered fees and sped up the network.
Why it matters: This partnership is a positive sign for POL, showing growing interest from institutional players. Better liquidity can make trading smoother and more reliable, attracting more developers and users to Polygon’s DeFi space.
(Source: CoinJournal)

2. Throughput Upgrade (October 28, 2025)

What happened: Polygon is rolling out an upgrade to increase its transaction capacity from 1,000 to 5,000 TPS and reduce the time it takes for transactions to be finalized from 5 seconds to just 1 second. This aims to make Polygon PoS one of the fastest blockchains for payments and tokenizing real-world assets.
Why it matters: Technically, this is good news for POL, but the token’s price dropped 2.5% in the last 24 hours due to overall market conditions. The key price support is at $0.203; if it falls below that, the price could drop further to $0.183.
(Source: Gate.io)

3. Coinbase Delisting (October 14, 2025)

What happened: Coinbase finished migrating from MATIC to POL, stopping MATIC trading and automatically converting user balances to POL. This change is part of Polygon’s 2.0 plan, which phases out MATIC in favor of POL’s cross-chain features.
Why it matters: This is a neutral move in the long run but has caused short-term price drops—POL has fallen 40.5% since the migration started in 2024. While it streamlines Polygon’s ecosystem, it may upset holders who preferred MATIC.
(Source: U.Today)

Conclusion

Polygon is focusing on improving scalability and attracting institutional users, but POL’s price still depends on overall market trends and how well these upgrades perform. The new AggLayer interoperability and Manifold’s liquidity tools could be key drivers for Polygon’s next stage of growth.

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What is expected in the development of POL?

Polygon’s plan focuses on improving speed, enabling cross-chain connections, and growing its ecosystem.

  1. AggLayer Integration (Q4 2025) – Linking Polygon PoS with AggLayer to allow different blockchains to work together smoothly.
  2. 5,000 TPS Milestone (October 2025) – Boosting the network to handle 5,000 transactions per second.
  3. Staking Hub Launch (2026) – Letting POL holders help secure multiple blockchains, increasing the token’s usefulness.
  4. GigaGas Roadmap (2026) – Aiming for 100,000 transactions per second to support global payments and real-world assets.

Deep Dive

1. AggLayer Integration (Q4 2025)

Overview:
Polygon PoS plans to connect with AggLayer, a technology that allows different blockchains to share information and liquidity easily. This connection depends on community approval and would make POL the key token for securing these combined networks (Polygon Blog).

What this means:

2. 5,000 TPS Milestone (October 2025)

Overview:
Polygon PoS aims to increase its speed from about 1,000 to 5,000 transactions per second by October 2025. This follows a recent upgrade that shortened transaction finalization times to around 5 seconds (Coinspeaker).

What this means:

3. Staking Hub Launch (2026)

Overview:
In 2026, Polygon plans to launch a staking hub where POL holders can help secure multiple blockchains within the Polygon ecosystem. This fits with Polygon 2.0’s goal of making POL a highly productive token (Polygon Blog).

What this means:

4. GigaGas Roadmap (2026)

Overview:
The GigaGas project aims for 100,000 transactions per second by 2026, with very low fees (around $0.001 per transaction). It also plans partnerships with traditional finance companies like Stripe. The first step, called the Bhilai upgrade, is expected in late 2025 (Coincu).

What this means:

Conclusion

Polygon’s roadmap focuses on technical improvements (like 5,000 TPS and AggLayer) and expanding its ecosystem (staking hub and GigaGas). These efforts aim to make POL a versatile token across multiple blockchains. While the outlook is positive, challenges in execution and overall market interest in alternative cryptocurrencies remain important factors.

How will Polygon balance growing its PoS chain while pursuing AggLayer’s cross-chain goals?


What updates are there in the POL code base?

Polygon’s latest updates focus on improving migration, scalability, and security.

  1. Heimdall v2 Mainnet Launch (July 10, 2025) – A faster and more secure consensus layer for quicker transaction finality and safer bridging.
  2. MATIC→POL Migration Milestone (August 20, 2025) – Nearly 98% of tokens have been successfully migrated.
  3. MigrateTo Function Upgrade (August 31, 2025) – New feature allowing flexible token migration with address redirection.

Deep Dive

1. Heimdall v2 Mainnet Launch (July 10, 2025)

What happened: Polygon upgraded its consensus technology from Tendermint/Cosmos-SDK v0.37 to CometBFT/Cosmos-SDK v0.50. This change cut the time it takes for transactions to be finalized from about 90 seconds down to just 5 seconds. The update also cleaned up old code to make future improvements easier.

This upgrade included PIP-62 and PIP-44 enhancements, which were tested on the Amoy testnet on June 24, 2025. Validators and decentralized apps (dApps) were advised to update their systems and temporarily increase block confirmations during a short 3-hour period to ensure smooth transition.

Why it matters: Faster transaction finality means users experience quicker and more reliable DeFi and payment services. Cleaner code also means Polygon can roll out future upgrades more smoothly. (Source)

2. MATIC→POL Migration Milestone (August 20, 2025)

What happened: Over 97% of MATIC tokens on Ethereum have been swapped for POL tokens, marking the completion of the first phase of Polygon’s AggLayer roadmap.

Users can swap tokens 1:1 through the Polygon Portal. POL is now the main token used for transaction fees and staking on the Polygon PoS network. The migration was designed to be backward compatible, so existing dApps continue working without interruption.

Why it matters: This migration reduces confusion and complexity caused by having two tokens. While the price impact has been modest due to overall market conditions, this step strengthens POL’s role in the ecosystem. (Source)

3. MigrateTo Function Upgrade (August 31, 2025)

What happened: Polygon introduced a new migrateTo function that lets users send their upgraded POL tokens to any Ethereum address they choose, rather than being limited to a default address.

This feature was rolled out with a 10-day timelock starting August 31 to ensure transparency and community trust. It responds to user feedback asking for more control over token migration.

Why it matters: This makes it easier for institutions and users with multiple wallets to manage their tokens, potentially speeding up the remaining migration process. (Source)

Conclusion

Polygon’s recent updates highlight improvements in scalability (Heimdall v2), ecosystem unification (POL migration), and user flexibility (migrateTo). With POL now powering nearly 98% of network activity, the upcoming AggLayer integration and increased staking adoption could boost demand in the last quarter of 2025.