Why did the price of BTC go up?
Bitcoin (BTC) increased by 0.78% in the last 24 hours, reaching $123,237, and has gained 10.3% over the past week. Three main factors are driving this growth:
- Strong demand for ETFs – U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $3.24 billion in inflows last week, the highest since January 2025 (Cointelegraph).
- Reduced supply on exchanges – Bitcoin held on exchanges dropped to a six-year low, removing about 170,000 BTC from coins available to sell in the last 30 days (NewsBTC).
- Technical breakout – Bitcoin reclaimed the $120,000 level as support, triggering automated buying and forcing short sellers to cover their positions.
Deep Dive
1. Institutional Buying Through ETFs (Positive for Price)
What’s happening:
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $3.24 billion flow in last week, reversing previous outflows. BlackRock’s IBIT ETF alone added $524 million on October 4. Morgan Stanley updated its crypto investment guidelines, allowing up to 4% allocation in growth portfolios, signaling confidence in Bitcoin as a mainstream asset.
Why it matters:
ETF purchases create steady demand that exceeds the daily supply of new Bitcoin mined (about 900 BTC per day). With ETFs now holding 1.325 million BTC (worth $166 billion), institutional investors are dominating the market, pushing out smaller retail traders. This reduces the number of coins available to sell, which can amplify price increases.
What to watch:
Look for daily ETF inflow updates (next on October 6). Continued strong inflows could push Bitcoin toward $130,000.
2. Supply Shortage on Exchanges (Positive for Price)
What’s happening:
The amount of Bitcoin held on exchanges dropped to 2.83 million BTC, a five-year low. On October 5, a large whale moved 620 BTC (worth $76 million) off Binance, further reducing coins available for trading.
Why it matters:
With fewer Bitcoins available for immediate sale, even moderate buying from ETFs or large investors can push prices higher. The 30-day outflow of 170,000 BTC equals about 8.5% of the new Bitcoin mined annually, a classic sign of a bullish market.
3. Technical Momentum (Mixed Signals)
What’s happening:
Bitcoin’s price moved above its 7-day simple moving average ($117,800) and 200-day exponential moving average ($107,652). The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 69.21, close to the overbought threshold of 70.
Why it matters:
Automated trading systems are targeting price levels around $128,000 and $133,000 based on Fibonacci extensions, which are common technical analysis tools. However, the funding rates for perpetual futures contracts have surged by 1,495% in a week, indicating that traders betting on price increases might face a sudden sell-off if momentum fades.
Key level to watch:
Maintaining support above $116,329 (the 50% Fibonacci retracement level) is important to keep the bullish trend intact.
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s recent price rise is driven by strong fundamentals—growing ETF demand and shrinking supply on exchanges—combined with positive technical momentum. However, the sharp increase in derivatives activity suggests caution is needed. The key event to watch is whether ETF inflows continue after the U.S. government shutdown ends on October 7. A close above $125,750 could spark fear of missing out (FOMO) buying from investors waiting on the sidelines.
What could affect the price of BTC?
Bitcoin’s price is caught between strong support from big investors and potential risks from new technology.
- ETF investments jump – $3.2 billion in weekly buys show growing confidence from institutions.
- Quantum computing concerns – BlackRock warns that Bitcoin’s security could be at risk by 2027.
- Large holders pull Bitcoin off exchanges – 170,000 BTC moved to private wallets in the past month.
Deep Dive
1. Institutional Demand via ETFs (Positive for Price)
Overview: Last week, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $3.24 billion in new investments (NewsBTC), reversing the outflows from September. BlackRock’s IBIT fund alone holds $96 billion in Bitcoin, rivaling traditional ETFs. The Coinbase Premium Index (+0.06) indicates steady buying by U.S. institutions since September.
What this means: Continuous ETF buying soaks up selling pressure. For every $1 billion invested, about 8,150 BTC are purchased at current prices. This steady demand can reduce price swings and might push Bitcoin’s price toward $130,000 to $150,000 by the end of the year if the trend continues.
2. Quantum Computing Risks (Potential Downside)
Overview: BlackRock’s ETF filing (Daily Hodl) highlights concerns that advances in quantum computing could break Bitcoin’s encryption by 2027. Developers suggest a plan called BIP-119 to gradually replace vulnerable Bitcoin addresses by 2030, but delays could leave about 25% of Bitcoin’s supply exposed.
What this means: If quantum computers successfully hack Bitcoin’s security, it could cause panic selling and increased government oversight. Although upgrades like P2QRH addresses are designed to protect Bitcoin, slow adoption over the next 3 to 5 years means uncertainty remains in the near term.
3. Whale Accumulation & Supply Impact (Mixed Signals)
Overview: Large Bitcoin holders, known as whales, moved 170,000 BTC off exchanges in the last 30 days (NewsBTC), bringing exchange balances to a five-year low. However, 99.3% of Bitcoin’s supply is currently profitable (NewsBTC), which historically can lead to price corrections of 3–10%.
What this means: Less Bitcoin available on exchanges can lead to bigger price swings. Whale behavior shows confidence in prices above $130,000, but some profit-taking near all-time highs could cause short-term dips to support levels around $106,000 to $109,000.
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s future price depends on whether ETF inflows can outweigh concerns about quantum computing and profit-taking by large holders. Institutional interest supports a positive outlook, but technological risks and signs of overbought conditions (RSI 80.42) suggest caution. Will the Federal Reserve’s rate decision on October 29 push more money into Bitcoin as the dollar weakens? Keep an eye on ETF investment trends and progress on quantum-resistant upgrades.
What are people saying about BTC?
Bitcoin price predictions vary widely, from optimistic $1 million targets to cautious $65,000 lows. Here’s a quick summary:
- Institutional investors are aiming for $200,000 or more, driven by ETF inflows.
- Technical analysts see $110,000 as a crucial support level.
- Market sentiment shows big investors (whales) buying while smaller retail investors are selling.
Deep Dive
1. @Burning_Forest: Bearish Outlook for 2025-2027
"Bitcoin price prediction for 2025 Top $175,000 [...] Bottom $65,000"
– @Burning_Forest (23.4K followers · 18.7K impressions · 2025-07-25 17:50 UTC)
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What this means: This experienced trader expects high volatility after Bitcoin reaches all-time highs, warning that long-term holders should be ready for a possible 63% drop after 2025 peaks.
2. @CCinspace: Bullish Institutional Targets at $276,000
"Bernstein: Predicts BTC will reach $200,000 [...] CryptoQuant: up to $276,400"
– @CCinspace (41.2K followers · 32.1K impressions · 2025-06-26 20:05 UTC)
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What this means: Major financial firms forecast Bitcoin could rise by 125% from current levels around $122,000. This optimism is based on expected $520 billion ETF inflows and the reduced supply caused by Bitcoin’s upcoming halving event.
3. CoinMarketCap Community: Whale Buying vs Retail Selling
"231 new wallets with 10+ BTC [...] 37,000 small holders exited"
– CoinMarketCap Community Post (362564691 · 2025-06-21 16:33 UTC)
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What this means: Data from the blockchain shows large investors are accumulating Bitcoin at around $122,000, while many smaller investors are selling off. Historically, this pattern often signals a strong bull market ahead.
Conclusion
Overall, Bitcoin’s outlook is cautiously optimistic. Institutional investors and ETF inflows are balancing out retail investor concerns. While experts debate whether Bitcoin will hit $175,000 or $276,000 in 2025, the key level to watch is $110,000 — it needs to hold through October’s economic uncertainties. Also, keep an eye on the 30-day exchange netflow metric: if more coins keep leaving exchanges, it supports the idea that whales are accumulating Bitcoin.
What is the latest news about BTC?
Bitcoin is reaching new record highs, driven by strong interest from big investors and institutions, while large holders ("whales") and regulators keep a close watch. Here are the key updates:
- Whales Increase Holdings (October 5, 2025) – $4.5 billion poured into Bitcoin ETFs and significant withdrawals from exchanges show strong institutional confidence.
- Bitcoin vs. U.S. Dollar (October 5, 2025) – Bitcoin hits an all-time high of $125,750 as the U.S. dollar experiences its worst year since 1973.
- Pause on Bitcoin Purchases (October 5, 2025) – Michael Saylor’s company stops buying Bitcoin for now, despite holding $79 billion worth of BTC.
In-Depth Look
1. Whales Increase Holdings (October 5, 2025)
Summary:
Last week, spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $3.24 billion—the biggest weekly inflow this year—while Ethereum ETFs gained $1.3 billion. On the blockchain, large holders moved 26,029 ETH (about $118 million) and 620 BTC (about $76 million) into cold storage wallets, reducing the amount of Bitcoin available on exchanges to a five-year low (under 2.85 million BTC).
What this means:
This is a positive sign for Bitcoin. The growing demand for ETFs and the trend of moving coins off exchanges into private wallets show that institutions trust Bitcoin as a hedge against economic uncertainty. With fewer Bitcoins available on exchanges, prices could rise further. However, technical indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggest Bitcoin might take a short break before moving higher. (NewsBTC)
2. Bitcoin vs. U.S. Dollar (October 5, 2025)
Summary:
Bitcoin surged to $125,750, matching gold’s record highs, while the U.S. dollar dropped 10% this year—the worst performance since 1973. Experts point to Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, rising inflation, and political gridlock (including a government shutdown) as reasons for the dollar’s weakness.
What this means:
This situation is generally good for Bitcoin. It supports the idea of Bitcoin as “digital gold,” a store of value during times of currency weakness. At the same time, the stock market has also been strong (S&P 500 up 40% in six months), indicating that investors are adapting to a new financial environment where Bitcoin and stocks can both do well. (Cointelegraph)
3. Pause on Bitcoin Purchases (October 5, 2025)
Summary:
Michael Saylor’s company has paused its weekly Bitcoin buying, even though it currently holds 640,031 BTC valued at $79.4 billion. The firm added 11,000 BTC in the third quarter but is now focusing on holding its current assets ahead of upcoming earnings. Meanwhile, corporate Bitcoin holdings worldwide have reached $150 billion, with BitMine leading in Ethereum accumulation (2.65 million ETH).
What this means:
This pause is neutral for Bitcoin’s outlook. It likely reflects a strategic decision to rebalance portfolios rather than a negative view on Bitcoin’s future. It also highlights how Bitcoin is becoming a key reserve asset for companies, with corporate holdings now accounting for over 3% of all Bitcoin in circulation. (CoinGape)
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s new highs are driven by a combination of strong ETF inflows, a weakening U.S. dollar, and growing institutional adoption. However, risks remain, including uncertainty around Federal Reserve policies (with a key meeting on October 29) and the fact that 99% of Bitcoin supply is currently profitable—a condition that has historically led to price corrections. The big question is whether continued institutional demand can balance out profit-taking as Bitcoin approaches $130,000.
What is expected in the development of BTC?
Bitcoin’s future plans focus on gaining support from big institutions, integrating with decentralized finance (DeFi), and improving mining technology.
- Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (Late 2025) – A U.S. government plan to hold Bitcoin (BTC) as part of its treasury assets.
- sBTC Mainnet Launch (Q4 2025) – A new way to use Bitcoin in DeFi without relying on third parties, through Stacks’ Layer 2 technology.
- Block’s Proto Mining Chip (2025) – Open-source mining hardware designed to make Bitcoin mining more decentralized.
In-Depth Look
1. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (Late 2025)
What’s happening:
The U.S. government is working on a plan called the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. The idea is to hold Bitcoin as a government asset without using taxpayer money. They might do this by partnering with federally approved miners or converting fees collected by government agencies into Bitcoin (Bitcoinist).
Why it matters:
This shows growing acceptance of Bitcoin by major institutions, which could increase demand and stability. However, political changes or delays in passing laws could slow down this plan.
2. sBTC Mainnet Launch (Q4 2025)
What’s happening:
Stacks, a blockchain platform, is launching “Satoshi Upgrades” to create sBTC—a version of Bitcoin that can be used in DeFi applications without needing a middleman to hold the coins. This could unlock nearly $1 trillion worth of Bitcoin that is currently not being used actively (CoinMarketCap).
Why it matters:
This could make Bitcoin more useful by allowing holders to earn interest or use their BTC in new financial products. There are risks, though, like technical challenges in keeping the value of sBTC stable and ensuring miners and stakers are properly rewarded.
3. Block’s Proto Mining Chip (2025)
What’s happening:
Block (formerly known as Square) plans to release an open-source Bitcoin mining chip called Proto in 2025. This chip aims to make mining hardware production more open and reduce dependence on big companies like Bitmain (CoinMarketCap).
Why it matters:
If widely adopted, this could improve Bitcoin’s network security by making mining more decentralized. However, there are risks such as delays in manufacturing and competition from established mining hardware producers.
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s roadmap combines efforts to bring in institutional support (Strategic Reserve) with new technology innovations (sBTC and Proto). These developments could strengthen Bitcoin’s role as both a government reserve asset and a key player in DeFi. Still, clear regulations and smooth implementation will be essential.
Will Bitcoin’s DeFi ecosystem grow faster than traditional finance’s acceptance of BTC?
What updates are there in the BTC code base?
Bitcoin’s software received major updates in 2025, focusing on making the network more scalable, secure, and flexible for developers.
- OP_RETURN Limit Expansion (October 2025) – Increased the amount of data you can store in a single transaction from 80 bytes to 4MB.
- Network Protocol Upgrades (May 2025) – Removed UPnP for better security, improved handling of network connections, and made Tor port settings more dynamic.
- Mining Optimization Fixes (May 2025) – Fixed bugs related to block size limits and allowed special small transactions to help Layer 2 solutions.
Deep Dive
1. OP_RETURN Limit Expansion (October 2025)
Overview: The Bitcoin Core 30 update removed the previous 80-byte limit on the OP_RETURN feature, allowing up to 4MB of data to be stored in a single output. This opens the door for more complex uses like decentralized IDs and timestamping important documents.
What this means: This change is positive for Bitcoin’s growth because it supports new applications beyond just sending money, such as NFTs and smart contracts. However, some worry this could lead to network spam and make the blockchain larger and harder to manage. Node operators can still set stricter limits if they want, but the default settings now favor more flexibility (Source).
2. Network Protocol Upgrades (May 2025)
Overview: Bitcoin Core 29.0 removed UPnP (a feature that automatically opens network ports) due to security risks, improved how it handles other network protocols like NAT-PMP and IPv6, and added dynamic port allocation for Tor to prevent conflicts.
What this means: These changes improve security and reduce potential attack points for people running Bitcoin nodes. However, users with older or less common network setups might experience some issues when updating their software (Source).
3. Mining Optimization Fixes (May 2025)
Overview: A bug that limited how miners could use the full block weight (a measure of transaction size) was fixed. A new setting called -blockreservedweight was introduced to give miners more control over block construction.
What this means: This update helps miners build blocks more efficiently and optimize transaction fees. It also allows zero-fee transactions to include tiny “dust” outputs if they are spent quickly within the same block, which supports the development of Layer 2 solutions that improve Bitcoin’s scalability (Source).
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s 2025 updates show a clear effort to improve scalability and give developers more tools, while still respecting the network’s decentralized nature. The expansion of OP_RETURN highlights a debate between those who want Bitcoin to focus solely on money and those who want it to support a wider range of applications.
Watchlist: Will the increased data capacity lead to exciting new uses, or will some node operators switch to alternatives like Bitcoin Knots to keep stricter limits?