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Why did the price of ATOM go up?

Cosmos (ATOM) increased by 0.5% to $3.18 in the past 24 hours, slightly outperforming the mostly flat cryptocurrency market (+0.6%). This rebound comes after a partial recovery from the massive $19 billion liquidation event on October 10. Positive developments within the Cosmos ecosystem and certain technical indicators are encouraging cautious optimism.

  1. Market-Wide Recovery – Partial bounce back after crypto’s largest-ever liquidation event
  2. Ecosystem Strength – Key acquisitions and upgrades improve confidence
  3. Technical Signals – Oversold conditions and key price levels suggest possible stabilization

In-Depth Analysis

1. Market Recovery After the Crash (Neutral Impact)

Summary: ATOM’s 0.5% gain reflects a fragile recovery in the crypto market following the October 10 “Black Friday” crash, which saw $19 billion liquidated. Bitcoin’s market dominance remains high at 58.78%, but altcoins like ATOM experienced mechanical rebounds as leveraged positions were unwound.

What this means: Trading volume for ATOM dropped 45.8% to $67.7 million, indicating less panic selling. The Fear & Greed Index at 27/100 shows traders are still cautious. Binance’s $400 million compensation program for those affected by the crash (Cointelegraph) likely helped ease immediate selling pressure.

What to watch: Whether ATOM can maintain support at $3.15. The 7-day simple moving average (SMA) at $3.36 remains a resistance level.

2. Ecosystem Developments Provide Support (Bullish Impact)

Summary: Despite market turmoil, Cosmos has made important infrastructure improvements:

What this means: These moves help address two major concerns: transparency for institutional staking and keeping developers engaged. With 390 million ATOM tokens staked (82% of total supply), better validator tools could reduce selling pressure from unstaking.

3. Technical Indicators Show Mixed Signals (Mixed Impact)

Summary: ATOM’s daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) rose to 35, moving out of oversold territory, and the price stabilized near the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at $3.38. However, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains bearish at -0.29, and the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $4.49 is still 41% above the current price.

What this means: Short-term traders may be buying the dip, but the 30-day price drop of 32.2% keeps overall sentiment negative. Watch the $3.19 pivot point—if ATOM trades consistently above this level, it could indicate a trend reversal.

Conclusion

ATOM’s modest recovery reflects a market trying to find balance after a severe downturn, supported by ecosystem upgrades that help offset broader crypto weakness. While technical signs suggest some stabilization, ATOM remains about 90% below its all-time high from 2021, facing strong competition from other Layer 1 blockchains backed by major companies.

Key point to watch: Can ATOM hold the $3.15 support level through the upcoming Akash Network upgrade on October 20? Or will Bitcoin’s rising dominance lead to more outflows from altcoins like ATOM?


What could affect the price of ATOM?

ATOM is at a crucial crossroads with important upgrades and risks ahead.

  1. Inflation & Staking Changes – High inflation (7–10%) puts pressure on price; governance debates possible cuts
  2. Regulatory Threat – SEC lawsuit could lead to ATOM being removed from exchanges
  3. Ecosystem Changes – Akash leaving and adoption of Interchain Security (ICS) affect utility
  4. Tech Improvements – Integration of CosmWasm and faster block times planned

In-Depth Look

1. Tokenomics Debate: Inflation and Its Impact (Bearish/Bullish Factors)

ATOM currently has a high inflation rate of 7–10% per year, compared to Ethereum’s 0.5–4.5%. This means more new ATOM tokens are created annually, which can lead to selling pressure since about 60% of staking rewards are sold (source). There are ongoing governance discussions about reducing inflation to 2–4%, but past efforts like the 2022 ATOM 2.0 plan failed to pass.

Why it matters: If inflation is successfully lowered, it could reduce the amount of new tokens sold each year by roughly $150 million (based on a $12 average price), making ATOM scarcer and potentially more valuable. If not, the price could continue to struggle, extending a 90% drop from its all-time high.

2. SEC Lawsuit and Exchange Delisting Risk (Bearish)

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has filed a lawsuit against Coinbase, claiming that ATOM is an unregistered security (details). In past cases, regulators have forced exchanges to delist certain tokens, such as Monero (XMR) on Binance US.

Why it matters: If the lawsuit goes against ATOM, major U.S. exchanges might remove it, reducing liquidity and making it harder to buy or sell. However, exchanges outside the U.S. could continue trading ATOM, which might soften the impact.

3. Interchain Security (ICS) Adoption: A Potential Boost (Bullish)

Cosmos’ Interchain Security (ICS) allows other blockchains to use the Cosmos Hub’s security by renting its validators. These chains share fees with ATOM stakers. While some projects like Neutron and Stride use ICS, others like dYdX and Akash prefer to run their own validators (Akash migration).

Why it matters: Each new ICS chain can add about 20% more fee revenue for ATOM holders. If many projects adopt ICS, it could help offset inflation and increase staking rewards. However, adoption has been slower than expected so far.

4. Technical Upgrades and Market Sentiment (Mixed Outlook)

Upcoming upgrades include reducing block times from 6–7 seconds to 1.5 seconds and enabling permissionless smart contracts through CosmWasm, aiming to compete with faster blockchains like Solana. However, on October 10, ATOM’s price briefly dropped to $0 on Binance during a massive $19 billion liquidation event in the crypto market (crash details).

Why it matters: If these technical improvements succeed, they could attract more developers and users. But ATOM remains vulnerable to broader market downturns and liquidity problems, especially during periods of high fear in crypto markets (CMC Fear & Greed Index at 25/100).

Conclusion

ATOM’s future depends on successful inflation management, regulatory clarity, and wider adoption of Interchain Security. There’s significant upside if upgrades and governance changes work out, but serious risks if the status quo remains. The current price around $3.18 shows market skepticism, though technical indicators suggest it might be oversold.

Will Cosmos Hub find the right balance to keep builders and investors engaged, or will it lose ground as the “Internet of Blockchains”? Keep an eye on upcoming governance votes in Q4 and the outcome of the SEC lawsuit.


What are people saying about ATOM?

Cosmos (ATOM) traders are balancing hopes for a price breakout with concerns about inflation, all while watching the growth of its ecosystem. Here’s what’s happening right now:

  1. Price is stuck between $4.35 and $4.60, showing a technical battle
  2. Inflation concerns – some say ATOM’s price could be three times higher if staking rewards were lower
  3. Upgrades to interchain technology are creating cautious optimism

In-Depth Look

1. @ali_charts: Price Pattern Suggests Big Move Ahead 🌀 bullish

"Cosmos $ATOM triangle consolidation nearly at the apex. Watch for a 30% move!"
– @ali_charts (293k followers · 12.7k impressions · 2025-08-30 03:08 UTC)
View original post
What this means: This is a positive sign for ATOM. When prices form a symmetrical triangle pattern, it often signals a big price move is coming. If ATOM breaks above $4.80, it could quickly rise to between $5.50 and $6.00 as traders jump in.

2. @0xDaniBi: Inflation Is Pressuring Price Down 📉 bearish

"High inflation (10% yearly) created $1.87B sell pressure since 2021 – current $3.18 price could be $11 with better tokenomics."
– @0xDaniBi (18.2k followers · 8.3k impressions · 2025-10-15 16:55 UTC)
View original post
What this means: This is a warning sign for the long term. The way ATOM’s rewards system works, it has released 156 million tokens since 2021—about one-third of all tokens available now. This steady increase in supply puts downward pressure on the price. Some believe if the rewards were lower, ATOM’s price could be much higher.

3. Coinbase: Ecosystem Growth Sparks Interest 🚀 mixed

"Coinbase added COSMOSDYDX support, triggering 3% ATOM rebound despite broader market fear." Source
– Institutional trading between $4.29 and $4.43 on Aug 7, 2025
What this means: This is cautiously positive. Coinbase’s support for Cosmos-related projects helps ATOM gain attention. However, for ATOM to truly shine, it needs more growth in decentralized apps (dApps) so it’s seen as more than just a “middleware token” that connects blockchains.

Conclusion

The outlook for ATOM is mixed. Technical traders are hopeful for a breakout, but there are real concerns about inflation and token supply. The $4.30 to $4.60 price range remains a key battleground. Keep an eye on:

  1. Changes in staking rewards (currently 10-15%) — lowering these could reduce selling pressure
  2. Improvements to the IBC protocol — new features that make blockchains work better together might attract more developers
    Will Cosmos’ vision as the “Internet of Blockchains” overcome its inflation challenges? Time will tell.

What is the latest news about ATOM?

Cosmos is navigating changes in its ecosystem and market challenges while focusing on growth with institutional partners.

  1. Akash Leaves Cosmos (October 13, 2025) – The decentralized cloud provider is moving to a new blockchain, testing how well Cosmos can keep its projects.
  2. Figment Buys Rated Labs (October 16, 2025) – A major staking company strengthens its data tools for Cosmos validators and institutions.
  3. Big Companies Launch Their Own Blockchains (October 18, 2025) – Stripe and Coinbase create private blockchains, increasing competition for Cosmos.

In-Depth Look

1. Akash Leaves Cosmos (October 13, 2025)

What happened: Akash Network, which offers a decentralized marketplace for GPU and computing power, announced it will move away from its Cosmos-based blockchain to another network that promises better security and growth opportunities. Akash will still support communication with Cosmos through IBC (Inter-Blockchain Communication), but this move raises concerns about Cosmos’ ability to handle growing demand, especially from AI-related workloads. Akash’s marketplace grew by 300% in 2025, driven by AI use cases.
What this means: This is a short-term negative for Cosmos (ATOM) because it shows the risk of projects leaving the ecosystem, which could encourage others to follow. However, Cosmos’ flexible design might still attract new projects that want to connect via IBC. (The Block)

2. Figment Buys Rated Labs (October 16, 2025)

What happened: Figment, a leading company in blockchain staking services, acquired Rated Labs, a firm specializing in blockchain data analytics. This acquisition improves Figment’s ability to track validator performance across Cosmos, Ethereum, and Solana. Cosmos is a key focus area for Figment’s $18 billion staking business.
What this means: This is positive news for Cosmos (ATOM) because better data tools can attract more institutional investors and improve network security. However, there is still a relatively high turnover rate among ATOM stakers at 12.85%. (Yahoo Finance)

3. Big Companies Launch Their Own Blockchains (October 18, 2025)

What happened: Stripe and Coinbase have launched their own Layer 1 blockchains—Tempo and Base—that directly compete with Cosmos SDK-based chains. These corporate blockchains benefit from existing regulatory approvals and established user bases, unlike Cosmos’ permissionless chains.
What this means: The long-term impact is uncertain. While these corporate blockchains may attract some institutional activity away from Cosmos, Cosmos still offers advantages like full control (sovereignty) and specialized innovations such as privacy-focused chains. The recent 30-day price volatility of ATOM (-32.13%) reflects this uncertainty. (CoinTelegraph)

Conclusion

Cosmos is facing challenges from projects leaving its ecosystem and competition from corporate blockchains. Still, its IBC technology remains essential for connecting different blockchains. Despite a 38% drop in ATOM’s price year-to-date, boosted institutional interest through Figment’s efforts could help. The question is whether upcoming Cosmos SDK upgrades and new partnerships can balance out the negative signals from Akash’s departure.


What is expected in the development of ATOM?

Cosmos’ roadmap is focused on improving how different blockchains work together and growing its network through important technical updates and strategic partnerships.

  1. Interchain Security Expansion (2025) – Strengthening security across multiple blockchains and improving rewards for network validators.
  2. Bitcoin IBC Integration (2026) – Connecting Bitcoin to the Cosmos network using IBC technology.
  3. Enterprise Adoption Push (2025–2026) – Encouraging businesses to use Cosmos for tokenizing real-world assets.
  4. Decentralized Infrastructure Upgrades (2025) – Reducing dependence on centralized service providers to make the network more robust.

Deep Dive

1. Interchain Security Expansion (2025)

Overview:
Interchain Security lets Cosmos Hub validators help secure other blockchains (like Neutron and Stride) while earning rewards in ATOM and other tokens. Recent governance proposals aim to improve how penalties and rewards are handled to attract more blockchains to join.

What this means:
This is positive for ATOM’s usefulness as more blockchains share security. However, if too few validators control the network, risks remain.

2. Bitcoin IBC Integration (2026)

Overview:
After Ethereum connected to Cosmos via IBC in July 2025, developers are now focusing on linking Bitcoin through bridges like Nomic. This will allow Bitcoin to be used within Cosmos decentralized finance (DeFi) applications.

What this means:
This is somewhat positive—bringing Bitcoin liquidity into Cosmos could boost the ecosystem. But technical challenges and Bitcoin’s limited scripting capabilities could slow progress.

3. Enterprise Adoption Push (2025–2026)

Overview:
Cosmos SDK is being promoted to businesses (such as Ripple’s EVM sidechain and Telegram’s TAC integration) for compliant tokenization of real-world assets. The Eureka upgrade in April 2025 helped build tools for cross-chain regulatory compliance.

What this means:
This has strong long-term potential if businesses adopt Cosmos, though competition from platforms like Polkadot and Hyperledger is a factor.

4. Decentralized Infrastructure Upgrades (2025)

Overview:
Cosmos is partnering with Pocket Network to reduce reliance on centralized service providers like Hetzner and AWS by decentralizing access points and node infrastructure.

What this means:
This improves network reliability but may not directly affect ATOM’s price unless overall usage increases.

Conclusion

Cosmos is focusing on making blockchains work better together (through Bitcoin and Ethereum bridges) and building enterprise-ready infrastructure while improving validator incentives. The key to success will be turning developer interest into real-world adoption. The big question remains: can ATOM maintain its position as a leading cross-chain hub amid competition from larger, all-in-one blockchains?


What updates are there in the ATOM code base?

Cosmos’ software received important updates in the third quarter of 2025, focusing on improving speed, security, and how well different blockchains work together.

  1. Hard Fork Activation (July 17, 2025) – A coordinated upgrade to improve network stability.
  2. BlockSTM & MemIAVL Integration (June 11, 2025) – Boosted transaction speed to 60,000 per second and made block processing 10 times faster.
  3. Security Protocol Overhaul (June 16, 2025) – Removed risky developer access and doubled rewards for finding bugs.

Deep Dive

1. Hard Fork Activation (July 17, 2025)

Overview: Exchanges like ProBit temporarily paused ATOM deposits and withdrawals to implement a hard fork. This upgrade was necessary to keep the network stable and compatible with the latest Cosmos SDK software.

Validators (the network’s node operators) had to manually update their systems. The update focused on making cross-chain communication smoother and reducing downtime risks.

What this means: This update is neutral for ATOM holders. While users faced short-term service interruptions, the network became more reliable in the long run. (Source)

2. BlockSTM & MemIAVL Integration (June 11, 2025)

Overview: Developed together with Cronos Chain, these upgrades are now available for all Cosmos blockchains. BlockSTM allows the network to process many transactions at the same time, while MemIAVL improves how data is stored.

These changes cut down node synchronization time from 16 hours to just 5 minutes and increased the network’s capacity to 60,000 transactions per second.

What this means: This is a positive development for ATOM. It makes Cosmos more scalable and attractive for developers building decentralized apps (dApps), encouraging more projects to join the ecosystem. (Source)

3. Security Protocol Overhaul (June 16, 2025)

Overview: Interchain Labs removed access for a former developer with concerning ties and conducted thorough security audits. They also doubled bug bounty rewards after finding some old code contributions that posed potential risks.

No active security issues were found, but the event led to stricter code reviews and more community involvement in security.

What this means: This update is neutral for ATOM. While it increases trust in the network’s security, it also highlights the challenges of managing open-source projects. (Source)

Conclusion

Cosmos is focused on making its network faster (with BlockSTM), safer (through audits), and better coordinated (via hard forks). These updates support its goal of becoming the “Internet of Blockchains.” However, the need for validators to manually update their nodes remains a challenge.

How will Cosmos balance keeping its network decentralized while rolling out fast protocol upgrades as it grows?