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Why did the price of ATOM fall?

Cosmos (ATOM) dropped 5.29% in the last 24 hours, underperforming the overall crypto market, which fell 3.75%. Over the past 30 days, ATOM has declined by nearly 24%. Here’s why:

  1. Aftermath of Black Friday Crash – Continued selling pressure following a massive $19 billion crypto liquidation event on October 10 (CoinDesk).
  2. Technical Breakdown – ATOM’s price fell below an important support level at $3.22, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 36, indicating the coin is oversold.
  3. Inflation Concerns – High staking rewards (about 10% annually) lead many holders to sell new tokens, adding steady selling pressure (@0xDaniBi).

Deep Dive

1. Market-Wide Risk Aversion (Negative Impact)

Overview:
The crypto market is still shaky after the “Black Friday” crash on October 10, when ATOM’s price briefly dropped to zero due to liquidity problems. Although prices have bounced back somewhat, trading volume remains low (7.41%), which increases price swings.

What this means:
Low liquidity makes ATOM vulnerable to rapid sell-offs. Investor sentiment is cautious (Fear Index at 29/100), and altcoins like ATOM are losing favor compared to Bitcoin, as shown by a 57% monthly drop in altcoin season indicators.

What to watch: Keep an eye on the overall crypto fear/greed index and Bitcoin’s market dominance for signs of changing investor mood.

2. Technical Breakdown (Bearish Momentum)

Overview:
ATOM’s price fell below its 50% Fibonacci retracement level at $3.22 and is trading under key moving averages (7-day average at $3.23, 30-day average at $3.80). The MACD indicator (-0.0186) confirms downward momentum.

What this means:
Currently, ATOM is near its lowest price levels for 2025, with the next strong support around $2.53. The RSI at 36 suggests it might bounce back soon, but recent volume dropped 3.92%, indicating weak buying interest.

Key level: A price rise above $3.22 could signal a short-term recovery; if it fails, the price might fall to $2.53.

3. Inflation & Staking Dynamics (Long-Term Bearish)

Overview:
Cosmos has a 10% yearly inflation rate, increasing the total supply by 260 million ATOM since 2021. Data shows that stakers have sold about 156 million tokens (worth roughly $1.87 billion), creating ongoing selling pressure.

What this means:
Even if positive news emerges, high inflation makes it hard for the price to rise. Stakers earn about 10% annually (around $0.31 per ATOM), encouraging them to sell some tokens to lock in profits during price drops.

What to watch: Any upcoming governance proposals to change ATOM’s inflation or staking rewards—none are active as of October 22.

Conclusion

ATOM’s recent price drop is due to a combination of lingering effects from the crash, weak technical signals, and structural inflation pressures, all worsened by a cautious crypto market. While the coin is oversold and might bounce back, the lack of strong positive triggers compared to other projects means investors should be careful.

Key level to watch: Will ATOM hold above the $3.00 mark, or will inflation-driven selling push it down toward the 2024 low of $2.01?


What could affect the price of ATOM?

ATOM is at a critical point, balancing growth opportunities with some key challenges.

  1. Interchain Security Delays – Slow adoption could weaken Cosmos Hub’s role (Cosmos Hub Forum).
  2. Token Conversion Proposals – A possible swap of STRD tokens to ATOM might strengthen the network (a rejection could hurt).
  3. Inflation Effects – A 10% yearly inflation rate for staking rewards is causing selling pressure (CoinMarketCap).

Deep Dive

1. Interchain Security Adoption (Mixed Impact)

What is it?
Cosmos Hub introduced Interchain Security (ICS) in 2023. This lets ATOM holders help secure other blockchains like Neutron and Stride, earning rewards in return. But so far, only two chains have adopted ICS, generating relatively small income compared to ATOM’s $1.5 billion market value.

Why it matters:
If more blockchains start using ICS (with 5 or more expected by early 2026), it could add about $15 million in yearly revenue, which is good news. But if competitors like EigenLayer and Celestia attract this demand first, Cosmos might lose its edge and become a backup option for security.

2. Stride’s STRD → ATOM Conversion (Potential Boost)

What is it?
Stride, a liquid staking platform, has proposed converting all its STRD tokens into ATOM. This would unify the Cosmos ecosystem. The community is split, but a new vote is expected by December 2025.

Why it matters:
If approved, this would bring $320 million worth of STRD into ATOM’s ecosystem, possibly raising staking rewards by 2-3% and drawing in bigger investors. If rejected, it could lead to fragmentation, similar to what happened when dYdX moved away in 2024.

3. Inflation vs. Utility Balance (Risk Factor)

What is it?
ATOM has a 10% yearly inflation rate to pay staking rewards. However, this also means many new tokens are sold on the market—about 60% come from validators selling their rewards (ProBit_Exchange).

Why it matters:
If more people don’t start using ATOM for transaction fees or governance (like voting on cross-chain decisions), this inflation could push prices down to around $2.50–$2.80, which is a significant drop based on past price trends.

Conclusion

ATOM’s success in 2026 depends on expanding Interchain Security and fixing the gap between inflation and real-world use. The STRD token conversion vote is a key moment for keeping the ecosystem united. With technical indicators showing potential buying opportunities if prices hold above $3.00, the big question is: Will the December “Unification” upgrade finally bring ATOM’s value and interoperability goals together?

{{technical_analysis_coin_candle_chart}}


What are people saying about ATOM?

Cosmos (ATOM) is sparking discussions about its future potential versus concerns over liquidity being spread too thin. Here’s what’s trending right now:

  1. ATONE airdrop excitement – ATOM holders who staked are benefiting, but some question if this growth can last.
  2. Technical traders expect a breakout – A chart pattern called a symmetrical triangle suggests a possible 30% price move soon.
  3. Concerns about ecosystem fragmentation – Multiple versions of the same assets, called "wrapped" tokens, may weaken Cosmos’ promise of seamless interaction between different blockchains.

Deep Dive

1. @berrycrypt: ATONE’s 35x price jump raises questions – Bearish outlook

"Cosmos is dead. $ATONE surged 35 times in one week. What’s going on? This token was only given to ATOM stakers."
– @berrycrypt (12.4K followers · 86K impressions · 2025-10-01 19:27 UTC)
View original post
What this means: This is a bearish sign for ATOM because the rapid success of tokens like ATONE suggests investors might be moving their money away from the original Cosmos token, even though ATONE was initially distributed to ATOM holders.

2. @ali_charts: Triangle pattern nearing completion – Bullish outlook

"Cosmos $ATOM is forming a triangle pattern that’s almost at the point. Expect a 30% price move soon!"
– @ali_charts (478K followers · 2.1M impressions · 2025-08-30 03:08 UTC)
View original post
What this means: This is a positive sign for ATOM. The technical chart pattern indicates that a significant price change is coming, but whether the price goes up or down depends on if the $3.15 support level holds or breaks.

3. @AirdropGlideapp: Concerns over asset fragmentation – Mixed feelings

"If a Cosmos project talks about wBTC, there are several versions (wBTC.axl, wBTC.osmo...). Did you know they can all be swapped 1:1 on Osmosis?"
– @AirdropGlideapp (8.9K followers · 214K impressions · 2025-08-24 12:25 UTC)
View original post
What this means: This is a neutral to slightly negative point. While it’s good that these different versions can be exchanged easily, having many versions of the same asset can confuse users and weaken Cosmos’ goal of smooth cross-chain interaction.

Conclusion

The outlook for Cosmos (ATOM) is mixed. There’s technical optimism about a potential price move, but concerns remain about the ecosystem becoming fragmented and investors shifting to forked tokens like ATONE. Traders are watching closely for a clear price move above $3.50 or below $3.00. Also, keeping an eye on trading volumes on Osmosis, a popular decentralized exchange, can help determine if ATONE’s growth signals healthy expansion or if ATOM is losing its lead.


What is the latest news about ATOM?

Cosmos is navigating changes in the crypto world and market ups and downs, balancing growing interest from big institutions with some technical hurdles. Here are the latest updates:

  1. Bunq Launches EU-Wide ATOM Staking (October 21, 2025) – Dutch digital bank Bunq now offers Cosmos staking across Europe through its flexible crypto service.
  2. Figment Acquires Rated Labs (October 16, 2025) – This strengthens tools that help track Cosmos validators, aimed at institutional investors.
  3. Post-Crash Recovery Efforts (October 10-14, 2025) – ATOM’s price briefly dropped to zero during a major market crash; Binance compensated users affected by the event.

Deep Dive

1. Bunq Launches EU-Wide ATOM Staking (October 21, 2025)

Overview:
Bunq, a Dutch digital bank, has added Cosmos (ATOM) to its crypto staking service through Kraken. This allows users across the European Union to earn up to 8.25% annual returns on their ATOM holdings after fees. To keep funds accessible, only half of the assets are actively staked. This is one of the first major moves by a bank to integrate Cosmos staking.

What this means:
This is a positive step for Cosmos, increasing its visibility and adoption by Bunq’s 20 million users who can now stake ATOM easily. However, users should be aware of the 25% fee on rewards and that deposits are not insured, which means there are risks involved. (Cointribune)

2. Figment Acquires Rated Labs (October 16, 2025)

Overview:
Figment, a major player in crypto staking, has acquired Rated Labs, a company specializing in blockchain analytics. This acquisition aims to improve how Cosmos, Ethereum, and Solana validators are monitored, providing detailed data for institutional investors who want to optimize their staking strategies.

What this means:
This move is generally positive for Cosmos’s appeal to institutions. Better transparency and data on validators can attract more investment. However, it also shows that the staking industry is becoming more competitive and consolidating. (Yahoo Finance)

3. Post-Crash Recovery Efforts (October 10-14, 2025)

Overview:
During a market crash on October 10, ATOM’s price briefly fell to zero on Binance due to low liquidity and outdated trading orders. Binance responded by compensating affected users as part of a $728 million relief plan.

What this means:
This event caused short-term negative sentiment because it exposed weaknesses in exchange infrastructure. However, Binance’s quick response may help rebuild trust. By October 22, ATOM’s price recovered to $3.15 but is still down 35% over the past 60 days. (CoinDesk)

Conclusion

Cosmos is facing a mixed environment: new banking partnerships and improved staking tools are positive signs, but recent market volatility continues to challenge the ecosystem. While ATOM’s price has dropped 35% over two months, its inclusion in Bunq’s regulated staking service shows growing real-world use. The question remains whether enhanced institutional tools from Figment and Kraken will help ATOM stand apart from broader crypto market swings.


What is expected in the development of ATOM?

Cosmos is making steady progress with several key updates planned:

  1. Bitcoin Integration via IBC (Q4 2025) – This will allow Bitcoin (BTC) to move natively across Cosmos blockchains without needing bridges.
  2. EVM Compatibility Expansions (Ongoing) – Improving how Ethereum-based apps work on Cosmos networks.
  3. Interchain Security v2 Upgrade (Q1 2026) – Enhancing how validators earn rewards across multiple chains securely.
  4. Initia Rollup Deployment (Q4 2025) – Launching a new technology to support apps running on different virtual machines, making development easier.

In-Depth Look

1. Bitcoin Integration via IBC (Q4 2025)

What’s happening?
Cosmos plans to complete its connection with Bitcoin by late 2025 using the Inter-Blockchain Communication (IBC) protocol. This builds on a previous upgrade that linked Ethereum to Cosmos. The goal is to let Bitcoin move freely and securely across Cosmos chains without relying on external bridges.

Why it matters:
This is a positive step for Cosmos and its native token, ATOM. It could make Cosmos a central hub for Bitcoin liquidity, attracting decentralized finance (DeFi) projects and institutional investors. However, there are risks like potential delays and competition from other blockchain projects focusing on modular designs, such as Celestia.

2. EVM Compatibility Expansions (Ongoing)

What’s happening?
Since June 2025, Cosmos has been improving its support for Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM), which is the technology behind Ethereum apps. This makes it easier for developers to bring Ethereum apps to Cosmos chains. Partnerships with Ripple and Telegram’s blockchain efforts show this focus.

Why it matters:
This could encourage more developers to build on Cosmos, which is good for the ecosystem. Still, Cosmos faces competition from established EVM-compatible networks like Polygon. A recent network upgrade in July 2025 improved stability, helping these efforts.

3. Interchain Security v2 Upgrade (Q1 2026)

What’s happening?
Cosmos is upgrading its shared security system so that validators (those who help secure the network) can earn rewards from multiple blockchains at once. This upgrade adds protections against penalties and introduces ways to share fees fairly.

Why it matters:
This is good news for ATOM holders who stake their tokens, as it could increase their earnings and demand for staking. On the downside, there’s a risk that a few large validators could dominate, which might reduce decentralization.

4. Initia Rollup Deployment (Q4 2025)

What’s happening?
Initia is launching a new rollup technology based on the Cosmos SDK. Rollups are solutions that help blockchains process transactions faster and cheaper. This rollup will support multiple virtual machines, including EVM and CosmWasm, and use IBC for cross-chain interactions.

Why it matters:
This could attract developers looking for flexible tools to build multi-chain applications, boosting the Cosmos ecosystem. However, success depends on how well it competes with other rollup solutions like Optimism’s OP Stack.

Conclusion

Cosmos is focusing heavily on making different blockchains work together smoothly and improving incentives for network validators. While ATOM has dropped about 30% this year, these upcoming upgrades could spark renewed interest and activity. The big question is whether Cosmos can strengthen its position as the “Internet of Blockchains” and outpace competitors like Polkadot in 2026.


What updates are there in the ATOM code base?

Cosmos’ software has received major improvements in speed, security, and ongoing developer support.

  1. Performance Upgrades Live (June 11, 2025) – Now supports 60,000 transactions per second (TPS) and achieves block finality 10 times faster thanks to BlockSTM and MemIAVL.
  2. Security Protocol Overhaul (June 16, 2025) – Strengthened security measures after discovering code linked to a North Korea-associated developer.
  3. GitHub Activity Leads the Industry (June 22, 2025) – Over 950 code updates in six months, focusing on the Cosmos SDK and cross-chain tools.

Deep Dive

1. Performance Upgrades Live (June 11, 2025)

What happened: Cosmos partnered with Cronos Chain to develop two new technologies—BlockSTM and MemIAVL—that are now available to all Cosmos blockchains. These upgrades significantly boost how fast transactions are processed and how quickly nodes sync with the network.

2. Security Protocol Overhaul (June 16, 2025)

What happened: After audits found that some code contributions came from a developer linked to North Korea, Interchain Labs took immediate action by revoking access and increasing bug bounty rewards.

3. GitHub Activity Leads the Industry (June 22, 2025)

What happened: Cosmos topped developer activity charts with over 950 code commits in six months, surpassing competitors like NEAR and Chainlink.

Conclusion

Cosmos is making significant progress in three key areas: speed, security, and developer activity. While the price of ATOM has been slow to respond, these improvements set the stage for Cosmos to become a critical infrastructure layer for multiple blockchains. The big question is whether this ongoing developer momentum will lead to faster adoption and growth after 2025.