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Why did the price of HBAR fall?

Hedera (HBAR) dropped 1.6% in the last 24 hours, underperforming the overall crypto market, which fell 0.63%. This decline is linked to technical resistance levels, money moving out of HBAR, and mixed feelings about how quickly businesses will adopt the technology.

  1. Technical Resistance – HBAR couldn’t stay above $0.24 after a bearish signal appeared in its trading indicators.
  2. Capital Outflows – $6.42 million left HBAR spot markets over three days, showing weaker demand.
  3. Market Rotation – Investors shifted funds from altcoins like HBAR to Bitcoin and Ethereum, causing a 1.4% drop in the altcoin season index.

Deep Dive

1. Technical Resistance (Negative Impact)

What happened: HBAR hit a resistance level at about $0.24857 but then fell below its 7-day average price of $0.23763. Although one momentum indicator (MACD histogram) showed a slight positive, the main MACD line stayed below its signal line, suggesting weakening buying strength.

What this means: Traders saw the failed price breakout as a chance to take profits. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) was around 54, meaning the coin wasn’t overbought or oversold. The price range between $0.24 and $0.23 is now a key support zone. If HBAR falls below this, it could drop further toward the 50-day average price of $0.23404.

2. Spot Market Outflows (Negative Impact)

What happened: Data from Coinglass shows that $6.42 million left HBAR spot markets in just three days. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), which measures buying and selling pressure, dropped to -0.07, its lowest since May 2025.

What this means: This steady outflow suggests that big investors and institutions are reducing their holdings. This could be because the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) delayed its decision on an HBAR exchange-traded fund (ETF) until September 9, or because investors are cashing in profits after HBAR’s strong 373% gain over the past year.

3. Mixed Enterprise Momentum (Neutral Impact)

What happened: Hedera recently partnered with Wyoming’s FRNT stablecoin project and launched TransAct, a new enterprise solution. However, its total value locked (TVL) in decentralized finance is $114 million, which is much lower than competitors like Solana, which has $1.4 billion.

What this means: Investors might expect it will take longer for businesses to fully adopt Hedera’s technology. The upcoming Hashgraph Council roadmap for Q3 2025, including the HashSphere launch, is an important future event, but near-term adoption remains uncertain.

Conclusion

HBAR’s recent price drop reflects profit-taking at key resistance levels and cautious investor sentiment about how quickly businesses will adopt blockchain technology. With Bitcoin’s market dominance increasing to 57.4%, altcoins like HBAR face challenges unless network activity picks up.

What to watch: Will HBAR hold above the 50-day average price of $0.234 and stabilize before the HashSphere launch? Also, keep an eye on the SEC’s ETF decision on September 9 for clues about institutional interest.


What could affect the price of HBAR?

Hedera’s price is influenced by both positive factors like growing business use and challenges such as regulatory delays.

  1. ETF Approvals – The SEC’s delays create uncertainty, but if approved, ETFs could bring more institutional investors.
  2. Enterprise Adoption – State-backed stablecoins and AI tools are increasing real-world use of Hedera.
  3. Staking Changes – Lower rewards (from 6.5% down to 2.5%) might affect short-term investor sentiment.

Deep Dive

1. Regulatory Factors (Mixed Impact)

Overview:
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has postponed decisions on spot HBAR ETF applications from Grayscale and Canary Capital. The final decision deadline is November 11, 2025. Bloomberg analysts estimate about a 90% chance of approval. Hedera’s design, which focuses on compliance (for example, Wyoming’s FRNT stablecoin), gives it an advantage compared to other cryptocurrencies.

What this means:
If the ETF is approved, it could lead to a surge in investment similar to what Bitcoin saw in 2024, potentially pushing HBAR’s price to between $0.40 and $0.50 (Bloomberg). On the other hand, if the decision is delayed further, the price might stay below $0.25 for a longer time.

2. Enterprise Adoption & AI Integration (Positive Outlook)

Overview:
Key developments expected in Q3 2025 include:

What this means:
These projects focus on real-world use rather than speculation. For example, FRNT could handle over $1 billion in transactions each month, using HBAR to pay network fees. The AI tools, boosted by NVIDIA’s technology, could attract more developers, which historically has helped increase Hedera’s price.

3. Staking & Supply Changes (Neutral to Slightly Negative)

Overview:
In August 2025, Hedera reduced the maximum staking rewards from 6.5% to 2.5% to better match token emissions with network activity. Now, only 13% of HBAR’s total supply (about 6.5 billion tokens) qualifies for full rewards, down from 31%.

What this means:
While this change improves the long-term health of the token’s economics, the sudden drop in rewards might cause some investors focused on yield to sell in the short term. Still, a large portion of HBAR (42.39 billion tokens, or 85% of circulating supply) remains staked, showing strong holder commitment.

Conclusion

HBAR’s future depends on gaining approval for ETFs and growing real-world business use. If the SEC approves the ETF in November, HBAR’s price could jump 50–70% to around $0.35–$0.40. Continued growth in stablecoin and AI use cases may help keep the price above $0.30. Keep an eye on the SEC’s November 11 decision and the transaction volume of FRNT for signs of progress.

Will Hedera’s regulated applications help HBAR stand apart from broader crypto market swings?


What are people saying about HBAR?

The Hedera (HBAR) community is divided between excitement over a potential price breakout and concerns about market stability. Here’s what’s currently trending:

  1. ETF excitement – Grayscale’s filings have sparked talks of HBAR reaching $5.
  2. Technical analysis debate – Supporters aim for $0.30, while some warn the coin might be overbought.
  3. Growing ecosystem – Increased use of stablecoins and a Robinhood listing are boosting optimism.

In-Depth Look

1. Stablecoin Growth & Business Adoption – Positive Signs

Crypto analyst @RealAllinCrypto notes:
"Hedera is gaining attention from companies and banks using stablecoins like $AUDD, $PHPX, and $FRNT. Where will $HBAR go next?"
– @RealAllinCrypto (26.8K followers · 12.3K impressions · 2025-09-05 08:15 UTC)
View original post
What this means: This is a positive sign for HBAR. As more businesses adopt stablecoins on Hedera’s network, demand for HBAR (used to power transactions) could increase.

2. ETF-Driven $5 Price Target – Mixed Opinions

Market commentator @johnmorganFL shares:
"Is HBAR heading to $5 because of ETF hype? Experts are divided – the last major technical signal led to a 500% rally, but economic risks remain."
– @johnmorganFL (2025-08-13 18:28 UTC)
View original post
What this means: Opinions are split. While past trends suggest big gains are possible, skepticism remains until there’s clear progress on ETFs.

3. Network Upgrades & Open-Source Development – Neutral to Positive

Official Hedera account @hedera announced:
"Hedera’s code is now fully open-source through Project Hiero, allowing developers to propose network improvements via HIPs."
– @hedera (289K followers · 62K impressions · 2025-07-22 15:05 UTC)
View original post
What this means: This move doesn’t immediately affect the price but is a positive step toward decentralization, which could improve Hedera’s long-term credibility.

Conclusion

The overall outlook for HBAR is cautiously optimistic. While excitement around ETFs and stablecoin adoption is driving interest, technical indicators suggest some caution is warranted. The $0.25–$0.27 price range is a key resistance level to watch. Keep an eye on the SEC’s decision expected by September 9 regarding Canary Capital’s ETF application—approval could support the $5 price target, while delays might lead to profit-taking.


What is the latest news about HBAR?

Hedera’s recent updates show positive momentum with growing institutional use and new tools for businesses. Here’s what’s new:

  1. Wyoming Launches State-Backed Stablecoin (Sept 11, 2025) – Wyoming chose Hedera to host its FRNT stablecoin, adding regulatory trust.
  2. Instant Stock Redemption with Swarm (Aug 16, 2025) – Tokenized stocks like Apple and Tesla can now settle instantly, skipping the usual 2-day wait.
  3. New Enterprise Tool TransAct (Sept 11, 2025) – Businesses can build blockchain apps on Hedera without needing to hold HBAR tokens, making it easier to get started.

In-Depth Look

1. Wyoming’s State-Backed Stablecoin Launch (Sept 11, 2025)

What Happened?
Wyoming picked Hedera’s blockchain to run its official stablecoin, FRNT. This choice highlights Hedera’s strong compliance features, which help meet government regulations. Hedera has also supported other stablecoins like AUDD (Australian dollar) and PHPX (Philippine peso).

Why It Matters
This is a positive sign for Hedera (HBAR) because government-backed projects show trust in its security and governance. It could lead to more partnerships with governments and large companies. However, since using FRNT doesn’t require holding HBAR tokens directly, the immediate impact on HBAR’s price might be limited. (MEXC)

2. Instant Stock Redemption via Swarm (Aug 16, 2025)

What Happened?
Hedera teamed up with Swarm Markets to allow instant redemption of tokenized stocks like Apple and Tesla. This means investors can convert these digital stocks to cash in seconds, instead of waiting the usual two days.

Why It Matters
This improves Hedera’s usefulness for real-world assets, making it more attractive for financial institutions wanting faster transactions. Still, it competes with traditional finance systems already in place. Its success depends on how many institutions adopt this faster settlement option. (CoinMarketCap Community)

3. Enterprise Tool TransAct Launch (Sept 11, 2025)

What Happened?
Hedera introduced TransAct, a tool that lets businesses create blockchain applications without needing to own or manage HBAR tokens.

Why It Matters
This lowers the barrier for companies unfamiliar with cryptocurrencies to use Hedera’s technology. Over time, increased use of the network could indirectly boost demand for HBAR through transaction fees and network activity. (MEXC)

Conclusion

Hedera is focusing on regulated, institutional projects like Wyoming’s FRNT stablecoin and user-friendly tools like TransAct. This strategy positions Hedera as a bridge between traditional finance and blockchain technology. Although HBAR’s price has seen some short-term dips (-6.87% over 30 days), its emphasis on compliance and enterprise adoption could support long-term growth.

Could Wyoming’s FRNT stablecoin inspire other U.S. states to follow suit?


What is expected in the development of HBAR?

Hedera is making significant progress with these key developments:

  1. HashSphere Launch (Q3 2025) – A private blockchain designed for regulated stablecoin payments.
  2. AI Studio Expansion (2025) – New AI tools to help developers build Web3 applications.
  3. Project Hiero Governance (2025) – Open-source code managed by a neutral foundation for community-driven upgrades.

In-Depth Look

1. HashSphere Launch (Q3 2025)

What it is:
HashSphere is a private blockchain powered by Hedera, focused on secure and compliant stablecoin payments for institutions. It combines the speed and reliability of Hedera’s public network with the strict rules needed for regulated financial transactions.

Why it matters:
This development could increase demand for HBAR, Hedera’s native token, as it becomes a key platform for both decentralized finance (DeFi) and traditional finance. However, it faces competition from other enterprise blockchain platforms like R3 Corda.

2. AI Studio Expansion (2025)

What it is:
Hedera’s AI Studio, launched in June 2025, is expanding to include advanced AI features. Developers can now create AI-powered decentralized apps (dApps) that use trustworthy on-chain data, thanks to integration with LangChain (Hedera).

Why it matters:
This could attract more developers to Hedera, especially if partnerships with AI leaders like NVIDIA take off. The success of these tools depends on real-world applications, such as tracking carbon emissions.

3. Project Hiero Governance (2025)

What it is:
In July 2025, Hedera made its codebase open-source under Project Hiero, with governance handled by the Linux Foundation’s decentralized infrastructure group. This allows the community to propose and vote on network improvements through Hedera Improvement Proposals (HIPs).

Why it matters:
Decentralized governance can boost Hedera’s credibility and attract developers similar to Ethereum’s ecosystem. However, decision-making might be slower compared to a centralized approach.

Conclusion

Hedera’s roadmap blends enterprise solutions like HashSphere with decentralized innovation through Project Hiero and AI integration. The upcoming HashSphere launch could drive institutional interest, but long-term growth depends on developer adoption of AI tools and community-led upgrades. The big question: Can Hedera’s hybrid public/private model outperform competitors in the regulated DeFi space?


What updates are there in the HBAR code base?

Hedera’s software is evolving with open-source governance and new developer tools.

  1. Full Open-Source Transition (July 22, 2025) – Hedera’s core codebase, called Hiero, is now fully open-source under the Linux Foundation.
  2. Contract Builder Launch (July 23, 2025) – A browser-based tool that lets developers quickly create and deploy smart contracts.
  3. Mainnet Upgrades (June 23, 2025) – Daily rewards for network nodes and improved account management features.

Deep Dive

1. Full Open-Source Transition (July 22, 2025)

Overview: Hedera moved its main software, Hiero, to the Linux Foundation’s decentralized platform. This change lets the community—developers and node operators—propose and vote on network updates through Hedera Improvement Proposals (HIPs).

This shift supports decentralization by reducing control from a single group, aligning with Hedera Council’s goal to make the network more community-driven.

What this means: This is a positive development for HBAR because open-source projects usually attract more developers and businesses looking for transparency. Network upgrades will now rely on community agreement, lowering risks tied to centralized decision-making. (Source)

2. Contract Builder Launch (July 23, 2025)

Overview: Hedera released a new Contract Builder tool that runs in a web browser. It allows developers to write, deploy, and test Solidity smart contracts without needing to install software locally.

This tool simplifies the process by combining contract compilation, verification, and test deployment into one easy-to-use interface. It’s designed to help traditional Web2 developers transition smoothly into Web3 development.

What this means: This is somewhat positive for HBAR because it lowers the technical barriers for developers, which could speed up the creation of decentralized apps (dApps). However, the real impact will depend on how many developers start using it. (Source)

3. Mainnet Upgrades (June 23, 2025)

Overview: Hedera’s main network updates 0.60 and 0.61 introduced two key improvements: HIP-1064, which provides daily HBAR rewards to node operators, and HIP-1021, which fixes issues with account auto-renewal and topic creation.

HIP-1064 encourages node operators to stay active by giving them predictable daily payouts. HIP-1021 improves the experience for developers using Hedera’s Topic Service by fixing rare bugs.

What this means: These upgrades are neutral in the short term for HBAR’s price but help strengthen the network’s security and reliability over time. Node operators benefit from steady rewards, and developers face fewer interruptions. (Source)

Conclusion

Hedera’s recent updates focus on decentralizing control, making development easier, and improving network stability. Open-sourcing Hiero and launching the Contract Builder aim to grow the developer community, while mainnet upgrades enhance the network’s foundation. The key question is how these changes will affect Hedera’s adoption by businesses compared to competitors like Ethereum and Solana.