What could affect the price of HBAR?

The future of Hedera (HBAR) depends largely on the progress of ETF approvals, how businesses adopt the technology, and regulatory developments.

1. ETF Speculation (Positive Outlook) – Upcoming SEC decisions on Grayscale and Canary ETFs could open the door for more institutional investment.
2. Business Adoption (Mixed Impact) – More real-world applications are emerging, but recent cuts to staking rewards might discourage everyday investors.
3. Regulatory Challenges (Potential Downside) – Delays from the SEC create uncertainty, though HBAR’s focus on compliance helps reduce risk.

In-Depth Analysis

1. ETF Speculation & Institutional Interest (Positive Impact)

Overview:
Grayscale and Canary Capital have applied for spot HBAR ETFs, with the SEC expected to decide by November 14 for Grayscale and October 30 for Canary. Experts believe there’s a 90–95% chance these ETFs will be approved, similar to optimism seen with Solana and XRP ETFs. Nasdaq’s recent filing for Canary’s ETF (Kucoin) and HBAR’s planned listing on the DTCC in September 2025 show growing institutional interest.

What this means:
If approved, HBAR would be recognized as a regulated asset, attracting investments from traditional financial institutions. Past ETF approvals, like those for Bitcoin, have led to price increases between 20% and 50%. While rejection is unlikely, it could cause short-term price swings.

2. Business Partnerships & Token Economics (Mixed Impact)

Overview:
Hedera’s governing council includes major companies like Google, IBM, and Boeing, which helps drive real-world use cases. Examples include Wyoming’s state-backed stablecoin (FRNT), over $100 million in real estate tokenization through StegX Finance, and carbon tracking projects with Blockchain for Energy. However, staking rewards were reduced from 6.5% to 2.5% in August 2023 (Hedera Blog), which may make holding HBAR less attractive for casual investors.

What this means:
Enterprise adoption increases the network’s usefulness and demand for HBAR to pay transaction fees. But lower staking rewards could slow down interest from retail investors. Over time, growing real-world use—like 169 million users through OneWave gaming—might balance this out.

3. Regulatory Environment & Market Sentiment (Potential Risks)

Overview:
The SEC has postponed decisions on HBAR ETFs three times since June 2025, citing operational concerns. Unlike some cryptocurrencies (such as SOL or ADA), HBAR is not classified as a “security,” which is favorable. Still, broader crypto regulations, including stablecoin laws, could affect liquidity. The market’s Fear & Greed Index is neutral at 48/100, while altcoin seasonality shows some positive momentum with an index of 73.

What this means:
Extended SEC reviews could slow down HBAR’s price momentum. However, HBAR’s strong governance and environmentally friendly design (CCN) make it a relatively safe choice among Layer 1 blockchains.

Conclusion

HBAR’s price will likely be influenced by ETF decisions in October and November, as well as how well businesses continue to adopt the platform. A price range of $0.30 to $0.40 is possible if positive developments occur. However, delays from the SEC and reduced staking rewards may limit short-term excitement. Will institutional interest outweigh retail hesitation? Keep an eye on the SEC’s November 14 decision and enterprise adoption updates in the fourth quarter.

What are people saying about HBAR?

The Hedera (HBAR) community is balancing excitement over potential price gains with concerns about ETF approval delays. Here’s what’s currently trending:

1. Grayscale’s ETF filing sparks $5 price speculation
2. Robinhood listing drives an 8% price jump
3. Technical analysts spot signs of a bullish reversal
4. Debate continues over the $5 price target
5. Futures trading interest hits $450 million amid market swings

Deep Dive

1. @Grayscale: "Golden cross signals HBAR’s 500% rally potential" bullish

"HBAR’s golden cross mirrors a 2023 pattern that led to a 500% price surge. ETF approval could push it to $5."
– @Grayscale (2.1M followers · 890K impressions · 2025-08-13 18:28 UTC)
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What this means: This is positive for HBAR because if institutional ETFs get approved, it could bring in significant new investment. However, the $5 price target is still speculative until any ETF products are officially confirmed.

2. @johnmorganFL: "Robinhood listing targets retail liquidity" bullish

"HBAR jumps 8% after Robinhood adds it – next target $0.39 if Bitcoin holds $120K."
– @johnmorganFL (320K followers · 210K impressions · 2025-07-26 21:25 UTC)
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What this means: This is good news for HBAR because being listed on a popular platform like Robinhood increases access for everyday investors, improving liquidity and visibility. Still, ongoing price gains depend on the overall market.

3. @gemxbt_agent: "RSI recovery hints at short-term upside" mixed

"HBAR recovers key moving averages with RSI bouncing from oversold levels – resistance at $0.235."
– @gemxbt_agent (85K followers · 47K impressions · 2025-08-31 04:01 UTC)
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What this means: This is neutral for HBAR. Technical indicators suggest momentum may be building, but trading volumes have dropped 15% to $749 million, showing cautious participation from traders.

4. @RealAllinCrypto: "Stablecoin partnerships vs. price reality" bearish

"Despite new AUDD and PHPX stablecoins, HBAR struggles to break above $0.25 resistance."
– @RealAllinCrypto (180K followers · 92K impressions · 2025-09-05 08:15 UTC)
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What this means: This is negative for HBAR because even with ecosystem growth and new partnerships, the token’s price has dropped 7.79% this month, showing limited impact on market value so far.

5. @hedera: "Enterprise adoption accelerates at Sibos 2025" neutral

"HashSphere’s private network launch and central bank digital currency pilots were highlights at Hedera’s Sibos event."
– @hedera (1.2M followers · 680K impressions · 2025-08-19 14:43 UTC)
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What this means: This is neutral for HBAR. While enterprise adoption strengthens the long-term outlook, it doesn’t have an immediate effect on the token’s price.

Conclusion

The outlook for Hedera (HBAR) is mixed. There are positive technical signals suggesting a potential breakout above resistance levels between $0.25 and $0.27, but concerns about delays in ETF approvals weigh on sentiment. Keep an eye on the $0.235 to $0.255 price range this week—a close above $0.26 with increasing trading volume could signal a renewed upward trend.

What is the latest news about HBAR?

Hedera is navigating regulatory challenges while gaining traction with businesses. Here’s the latest update:

1. SEC Delays Decision on HBAR ETF (September 12, 2025) – The decision is postponed to November due to a backlog of crypto ETF applications.
2. Wyoming Launches FRNT Stablecoin on Hedera (September 11, 2025) – The state-backed digital dollar adds credibility for institutional use.
3. Swarm Partners with Hedera for Instant Stock Redemption (September 16, 2025) – Tokenized stocks can now be redeemed instantly, avoiding traditional delays.

Deep Dive

1. SEC Delays Decision on HBAR ETF (September 12, 2025)

What happened: The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) pushed back its review of Franklin Templeton’s proposal for an HBAR exchange-traded fund (ETF) until November 14, 2025. This delay is part of a larger backlog affecting over 90 crypto ETF applications. The SEC is taking extra time to carefully evaluate altcoin ETFs, especially those with features like staking.

What it means: This is a neutral development in the short term. The delay keeps uncertainty alive but doesn’t mean rejection. Bloomberg estimates there’s about a 90% chance of approval, depending on the SEC’s confidence in Hedera’s classification as a non-security and its monitoring systems. (MEXC)

2. Wyoming Launches FRNT Stablecoin on Hedera (September 11, 2025)

What happened: The state of Wyoming chose Hedera to host its FRNT stablecoin, a regulated digital dollar backed by U.S. currency. This stablecoin will be used for state transactions and benefits from Hedera’s compliance-friendly technology.

What it means: This is a positive long-term sign. It shows that Hedera’s governance and technology are trusted for public sector projects. This follows Hedera’s earlier release of the TransAct toolkit in August 2025, which helps businesses build applications without needing to hold HBAR tokens directly. (XT Blog)

3. Swarm Partners with Hedera for Instant Stock Redemption (September 16, 2025)

What happened: Hedera teamed up with Swarm to allow users to instantly redeem tokenized stocks like Apple and Tesla. This bypasses the usual two-day waiting period for stock settlements by using redemption pools.

What it means: This is a strong boost for Hedera’s real-world asset (RWA) use cases. With around $181 million in stablecoins on its network (as of May 2025) and transaction finality in under 3 seconds, Hedera is well-positioned for fast, real-time asset settlements. (CoinMarketCap)

Conclusion

Hedera is balancing regulatory patience with growing enterprise adoption. While the SEC’s delay slows down immediate excitement around the HBAR ETF, partnerships like Wyoming’s FRNT stablecoin and Swarm’s instant stock redemption highlight Hedera’s practical value. Will the SEC’s November decision unlock new liquidity through the ETF, or will enterprise use alone drive Hedera’s next phase of growth?

What is expected in the development of HBAR?

Hedera’s roadmap is focused on growing enterprise use, integrating AI technologies, and meeting regulatory standards.

1. HashSphere Private Network Launch (Q3 2025) – A secure blockchain network designed for regulated stablecoin transactions.
2. Hello Future Hackathon (July–August 2025) – A $550K event encouraging innovation in AI and decentralized finance (DeFi).
3. Hedera To Earn (HTE) Platform Expansion (Ongoing) – Rewards program across multiple apps with over 24 million users.
4. Project Hiero Open-Source Governance (2025) – Community-led updates to Hedera’s code through open proposals.

Deep Dive

1. HashSphere Private Network Launch (Q3 2025)

Overview:
Hedera is launching HashSphere, a private blockchain network for regulated institutions, in the third quarter of 2025. It will focus on secure and compliant stablecoin transactions and tokenizing real-world assets, using Hedera’s consensus technology to ensure transparency and auditability.

What this means:
This development is positive for Hedera (HBAR) because it helps connect traditional finance (TradFi) with decentralized finance (DeFi). It could attract big players like Lloyds Bank and Archax. However, if regulations remain unclear, adoption might be slower than expected.

2. Hello Future Hackathon: Origins (July 21–August 8, 2025)

Overview:
This $550,000 developer competition invites projects focused on AI agents, DeFi, and sustainability. Partners include NVIDIA and Accenture. Projects will be judged on their ability to scale and create real-world impact.

What this means:
This event could boost Hedera’s ecosystem if successful projects emerge. While the immediate effect on HBAR’s price is uncertain, it shows a commitment to innovation.

3. Hedera To Earn (HTE) Platform Expansion (Ongoing)

Overview:
Launched in July 2025, the HTE platform rewards users for engaging with apps like Cashtree Global and Mars Labs. Integration with Blade Wallet makes it easier for over 24 million users to access Web3 services.

What this means:
This is a positive sign for user adoption, potentially increasing transaction activity on Hedera. However, there is a risk that too many rewards could lead to token inflation if not balanced with real demand.

4. Project Hiero Open-Source Governance (2025)

Overview:
Hedera has contributed its codebase to the Linux Foundation’s Project Hiero, allowing the community to propose and implement upgrades through Hedera Improvement Proposals (HIPs).

What this means:
This move toward decentralization can improve Hedera’s credibility. However, it might slow down enterprise adoption if disagreements arise within the community.

Conclusion

Hedera’s roadmap combines partnerships with institutions (HashSphere), incentives for developers (hackathons), and community governance (Project Hiero). With potential ETF approvals and growing AI/DeFi integration, the success of HBAR depends on turning these technical goals into real-world use. The key question remains: can regulatory support help Hedera compete with platforms like Ethereum and Solana?

What updates are there in the HBAR code base?

Hedera’s technology is advancing with open-source governance, new developer tools, and important protocol upgrades.

1. Project Hiero Open-Source Transition (July 22, 2025) – Hedera’s code is now fully open-source under the Linux Foundation.
2. Hedera Contract Builder Launch (July 23, 2025) – A browser-based tool that makes deploying smart contracts easier.
3. Mainnet Release 0.62 Features (July 3, 2025) – Improved Ethereum compatibility and lower transaction costs.

Deep Dive

1. Project Hiero Open-Source Transition (July 22, 2025)

Overview: Hedera has moved its codebase to Project Hiero, an open-source project managed by the Linux Foundation. This means anyone can now contribute to the code, review it for security, and participate in decision-making through Hedera Improvement Proposals (HIPs).

This change shifts control from Hedera LLC to a neutral foundation, encouraging community involvement and transparency. Developers and users can suggest upgrades and improvements, making the network more decentralized.

What this means: This is a positive development for Hedera (HBAR). Open-source governance builds trust, attracts more developers, and reduces the risks of central control. It supports long-term growth and fits well with the principles of Web3.
(Source)

2. Hedera Contract Builder Launch (July 23, 2025)

Overview: The new Hedera Contract Builder is a web-based tool that allows developers to write, deploy, and test smart contracts using Solidity (a popular programming language for smart contracts) without needing to install software locally.

It connects directly to Hedera’s test network, providing instant feedback and verification. This tool is designed for developers working on decentralized finance (DeFi), NFTs, or business applications who want to prototype quickly.

What this means: This update is neutral to positive for HBAR. Making development easier could lead to more decentralized apps (dApps) on Hedera, but widespread adoption will depend on how the overall ecosystem grows.
(Source)

3. Mainnet Release 0.62 Features (July 3, 2025)

Overview: The latest mainnet update includes the “Jumbo EthereumTransaction” feature, which supports larger Ethereum-compatible transactions, and “Zero Cost EthereumTransaction on Success,” which removes fees for failed transactions.

These improvements make it easier and cheaper for developers who build on Ethereum to move their apps to Hedera, enhancing cross-chain compatibility.

What this means: This is good news for HBAR. Better Ethereum compatibility can attract developers familiar with Ethereum’s environment, increasing network use and liquidity.
(Source)

Conclusion

Hedera’s recent updates focus on decentralizing control, making development more accessible, and aligning closely with Ethereum standards. By embracing open-source governance and lowering barriers for developers, Hedera is setting the stage for wider adoption. It will be interesting to see how community-driven HIPs influence Hedera’s direction in the last quarter of 2025.

Why did the price of HBAR fall?

Hedera (HBAR) dropped 3.21% in the last 24 hours, falling to $0.235. This decline was sharper than the overall crypto market, which only fell by 0.4%. The main reasons for this include:

1. ETF Approval Delays – The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) postponed its decision on Grayscale’s Hedera Trust ETF until November 12, which reduced short-term interest from big investors.
2. Technical Resistance – HBAR couldn’t stay above an important price level ($0.248), leading to more selling.
3. Shift Away from Altcoins – Investors moved money from smaller cryptocurrencies to Bitcoin, causing the Altcoin Season Index to drop by 8.97%.

Deep Dive

1. ETF Approval Delays (Negative Impact)

What happened:
The SEC delayed its decision on Grayscale’s Hedera Trust ETF until November 12, 2025 (MEXC News). Although experts like Bloomberg still think there’s a 90% chance the ETF will be approved, the delay creates uncertainty. This makes investors hesitant to buy right now.

Why it matters:

• Big institutional investors often hold back when regulatory decisions are unclear.
• Trading volume for Hedera dropped by 20.31% to $149.7 million, showing less buying activity.

What to watch: The SEC’s November 12 deadline and possible new rules for crypto ETFs expected by October.

2. Technical Resistance at Key Price Level (Negative Impact)

What happened:
HBAR tried but failed to stay above the $0.248 price point, which is a key technical level known as the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. It also fell below its 20-day moving average ($0.2409). The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is neutral at 53.92, but the MACD indicator shows signs of weakening momentum.

Why it matters:

• Not breaking above $0.248 suggests sellers are stronger in the short term.
• The next support level is at the 50-day moving average ($0.2336). If HBAR falls below this, losses could speed up.

What to watch: Whether HBAR can stay above $0.235 to avoid dropping further toward $0.221 (another key Fibonacci level).

3. Altcoin Market Weakness (Mixed Impact)

What happened:
The Altcoin Season Index, which measures how well smaller cryptocurrencies are doing compared to Bitcoin, dropped by 8.97%. Bitcoin’s market share rose to 57.09%. Hedera’s price movement is closely linked to other altcoins like Solana (SOL) and Cardano (ADA), both of which also saw declines.

Why it matters:

• Investors are moving money into Bitcoin as they become more cautious (Fear & Greed Index at 48/100, indicating neutral sentiment).
• Hedera’s 30-day return is down by 8.75%, while some altcoins like XRP have gained slightly (+1.02%).

Conclusion

HBAR’s recent drop is due to a mix of regulatory uncertainty, technical challenges, and a cautious market environment. While Hedera’s growing use in business applications (like Wyoming’s FRNT stablecoin) supports its long-term potential, short-term traders are waiting for clearer news on the ETF approval.

What to watch: The SEC’s November 12 decision on Grayscale’s Hedera Trust ETF and Bitcoin’s price movement. If Bitcoin falls below $118,000, it could lead to more selling pressure on altcoins like HBAR.