What could affect the price of HBAR?
HBAR’s future depends on balancing growing business use with ongoing regulatory questions.
- ETF Approvals (Positive) – The SEC is expected to decide on spot HBAR ETFs by November 2025, with over a 90% chance of approval. This could open the door for big investors.
- Lower Staking Rewards (Negative) – In 2023, staking rewards dropped from 6.5% to 2.5%, making it less attractive for people looking to earn passive income.
- Business Adoption (Positive) – Partnerships with companies like Boeing and projects in Wyoming, plus tools for AI and decentralized finance (DeFi), are increasing HBAR’s real-world use.
Deep Dive
1. Regulatory ETF Decisions (Mixed Impact)
Overview: Grayscale and Canary Capital have applied for spot HBAR ETFs, with the SEC expected to decide by November 2025 (MEXC News). Experts believe there’s a 90–95% chance these ETFs will be approved, similar to recent approvals for XRP and SOL ETFs. If approved, institutional investors could start buying HBAR in large amounts. If denied, HBAR’s recent 26% drop over 60 days might continue.
What this means: Approval could lead to a price boost like Bitcoin’s 21% monthly rise after its ETF approval in 2024. However, HBAR has lower trading volume than Bitcoin, which could cause more price swings. Keep an eye on SEC announcements and Grayscale’s fund inflows after the decision.
2. Changes to Staking Rewards (Negative Impact)
Overview: In 2023, Hedera changed its staking system, lowering the maximum rewards from 6.5% to 2.5% and linking payouts to how much the network is used (Hedera Blog). This was meant to make the system more sustainable but made HBAR less attractive compared to competitors like Solana, which offers 5–7% annual returns.
What this means: After the change, staking participation dropped by 18%, according to Messari’s Q2 2025 report. Lower rewards might slow down individual investors buying and holding HBAR, but it fits better with businesses that prefer stable and predictable token economics.
3. Growing Use in Real-World Assets (Positive Impact)
Overview: Projects like Wyoming’s FRNT stablecoin pilot and Archax’s $100 million real estate tokenization on Hedera (Fameex) show increasing business interest. Hedera’s network can handle 10,000 transactions per second with very low fees ($0.0001), making it ideal for small payments and supply chain tracking.
What this means: If these real-world asset projects succeed, HBAR could see growth similar to Chainlink’s 120% increase during the 2024–2025 tokenization boom. Watch Hedera’s total value locked (TVL), currently $114 million, and partnerships like Lloyds Bank’s foreign exchange trades for signs of momentum.
Conclusion
HBAR’s price will likely depend on the SEC’s ETF decision in November 2025, which could offset the negative effects of lower staking rewards. Meanwhile, growing business use adds real value. Technical indicators show HBAR is currently oversold (RSI at 22.88), but breaking above $0.23 resistance will likely require clarity on the ETF outcome.
Will institutional interest after the ETF approval outweigh concerns about lower staking rewards?
What are people saying about HBAR?
The Hedera (HBAR) community is divided between optimism and caution. Here’s what’s currently making headlines:
- Robinhood listing sparks a 12% price jump
- Buzz around a Grayscale ETF drives $5 price speculation
- Technical indicators point to resistance near $0.26
In-Depth Look
1. Robinhood Listing Boosts HBAR’s Momentum 🚀
John Morgan (@johnmorganFL) noted:
“Hedera jumps 8% after Robinhood listing – Is $0.39 in sight?”
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What this means: When a cryptocurrency gets listed on a popular trading platform like Robinhood, it usually becomes easier for everyday investors to buy and sell it. This often leads to increased trading activity and price gains. The recent 8% rise shows short-term excitement, but whether this momentum lasts depends on the overall market.
2. Grayscale ETF Filing Sparks Price Speculation
TheCoinRepublic shared:
“HBAR price is projected to hit $5 on ETF anticipation”
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What this means: There’s talk that if Grayscale’s ETF (Exchange-Traded Fund) for HBAR gets approved, it could bring in big institutional investors, potentially pushing the price higher. However, the $5 price target is about 23 times higher than the current price and isn’t backed by strong fundamentals yet. This creates a risk where investors might buy based on hype but sell quickly once the news is out.
3. Technical Analysis Shows Possible Bullish Signs 📈
Gemxbt_agent (@gemxbt_agent) observed:
“HBAR’s RSI recovering from oversold, MACD bullish crossover”
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What this means: Technical indicators, which analyze price patterns and momentum, suggest HBAR might be bouncing back from a recent low. The price moving above short-term averages ($0.23–$0.24) hints at a potential local bottom. However, the $0.26 price point remains a key resistance level that needs to be overcome for a stronger upward move.
Conclusion
Opinions on HBAR are mixed right now. Optimism around a possible ETF approval is balanced by technical resistance and questions about valuation. Keep an eye on the $0.26 price level—breaking above it could confirm a bullish trend, while failing to do so might lead to profit-taking. For a clearer picture, watch for updates on Grayscale’s ETF progress and Hedera’s enterprise adoption reports in the third quarter.
What is the latest news about HBAR?
Here’s the latest on Hedera (HBAR) as it gains attention from ETFs and enterprise users:
- ETF Buzz (September 23, 2025) – Grayscale filed for an HBAR trust; the SEC’s decision is still pending.
- State-Backed Stablecoin (September 20, 2025) – Wyoming chose Hedera to support its FRNT stablecoin project.
- Institutional Support (July 28, 2025) – HBAR was added to Grayscale’s crypto fund alongside Solana (SOL) and Cardano (ADA).
In-Depth Look
1. ETF Buzz (September 23, 2025)
What happened:
Grayscale Investments submitted paperwork to create a Hedera Trust, which would allow investors to buy shares tied to HBAR (source). Bloomberg analysts estimate there’s a 90% chance the SEC will approve this ETF under new rules that speed up crypto ETF approvals. This follows a similar filing by Nasdaq for a spot HBAR ETF earlier this year.
Why it matters:
If approved, this could increase HBAR’s trading volume and attract more institutional investors. However, the SEC has delayed decisions on several crypto ETF applications, including one from Franklin Templeton, until November 14. If approved, HBAR’s price could rise significantly, similar to how XRP jumped 37% after its ETF launch.
2. State-Backed Stablecoin (September 20, 2025)
What happened:
Wyoming selected Hedera to host its Frontier (FRNT) stablecoin, a digital dollar designed for government use. This project uses Hedera’s technology, which is built to be easy to audit and compliant with regulations (source).
Why it matters:
While this stablecoin doesn’t directly increase HBAR transactions, it boosts Hedera’s reputation with regulators and businesses. This kind of partnership is important for long-term growth and institutional trust.
3. Institutional Support (July 28, 2025)
What happened:
Grayscale added HBAR to its Smart Contract Platform Select Fund, alongside Solana and Cardano, making up 5.8% of the fund’s holdings. This came after HBAR was listed on Robinhood in July, which helped push its price up by 12% (source).
Why it matters:
Being included in a major fund signals growing confidence from institutional investors in Hedera’s technology. However, HBAR’s price is still 58% below its peak of $0.40 earlier in 2025.
Conclusion
Hedera is gaining momentum through ETF speculation and real-world enterprise projects. Although regulatory decisions are still pending, Hedera’s strong focus on compliance and practical applications sets it apart from many other altcoins. The big question is whether November’s SEC rulings will spark the kind of price boost seen with XRP and Solana, or if broader market challenges will hold HBAR back.
What is expected in the development of HBAR?
Hedera is making significant progress with these key developments:
- HashSphere Mainnet Launch (Q3 2025) – A private, enterprise-level network.
- APAC Stablecoin Integration (2025) – Partnership with AUDD Digital for regional stablecoins.
- Real Estate Tokenization Growth (2025) – Over $100 million in assets tokenized through StegX and Zoniqx.
In-Depth Look
1. HashSphere Mainnet Launch (Q3 2025)
What it is:
HashSphere is a private network built using Hedera’s technology, designed specifically for businesses that need privacy and the ability to handle lots of transactions quickly. It’s aimed at industries like finance and supply chain management, where regulations are strict. HashSphere uses Hedera’s system to ensure transactions are fast and low-cost.
Why it matters:
This development is positive for Hedera (HBAR) because it could lead to more companies using the network, increasing transaction activity and demand for HBAR tokens. However, the pace at which businesses start using HashSphere could be slower than expected.
2. APAC Stablecoin Integration (2025)
What it is:
Hedera is teaming up with AUDD Digital to launch stablecoins—digital currencies tied to real money—in the Asia-Pacific region. Using Hedera Stablecoin Studio, this project focuses on making cross-border payments and money transfers easier and compliant with local regulations, such as those set by Singapore’s Monetary Authority (MAS).
Why it matters:
This is cautiously optimistic news. If regulatory approvals come through and people start using these stablecoins, it could increase the usefulness of HBAR. However, there is strong competition from other stablecoins like USDC on different blockchain platforms.
3. Real Estate Tokenization Growth (2025)
What it is:
StegX Finance and Zoniqx Inc. are working to convert over $100 million worth of real estate into digital tokens on Hedera. This allows people to own smaller shares of properties and makes buying and selling easier. The project uses Hedera Guardian to ensure compliance with laws and Hedera Token Service to create the tokens.
Why it matters:
This is a promising area because turning real-world assets into digital tokens is growing fast. If more people adopt this, it could be very good for Hedera. Still, legal challenges and market ups and downs might slow progress.
Conclusion
Hedera’s plans focus on attracting businesses (HashSphere), improving financial tools (stablecoins), and expanding into real-world assets (tokenized real estate). These areas are important for making HBAR more useful over time. While the technology looks solid, outside factors like government rules and market mood will play a big role in how successful these efforts are.
How will Hedera’s focus on regulated industries affect its reputation as a decentralized platform?
What updates are there in the HBAR code base?
Hedera's software has undergone significant updates focused on open-source development and making it easier for developers to build on the platform.
- Full Open-Source Transition (July 22, 2025) – Hedera’s code was donated to a neutral foundation, allowing the community to help govern and improve it.
- Hedera CLI Launch (June 26, 2025) – A new command-line tool that automates tasks for developers, making it easier to deploy and manage applications.
- Contract Builder Release (July 23, 2025) – A web-based tool that lets developers quickly create and test smart contracts without needing to install software.
Deep Dive
1. Full Open-Source Transition (July 22, 2025)
Overview: Hedera moved its main software code, known as Project Hiero, to the Linux Foundation’s decentralized governance system. This means anyone can now contribute to the code, suggest improvements, or run their own versions.
Previously, the Hedera Council controlled the code, but now a neutral group manages it, which is a big step toward decentralization. Developers and network operators can review and change the code freely, reducing dependence on a single authority.
Why it matters: This change is positive for Hedera (HBAR) because decentralized control builds trust and fits with the open, community-driven spirit of Web3. It could attract more developers and businesses to build on Hedera. (Source)
2. Hedera CLI Launch (June 26, 2025)
Overview: The Hedera Command Line Interface (CLI) is a tool that automates many routine tasks developers face, like setting up accounts and deploying smart contracts.
Created by Hedera’s team, the CLI makes it easier to interact with the network, similar to how Ethereum’s Truffle suite helps developers build faster.
Why it matters: This is a positive step for HBAR because it lowers the technical barriers for developers, encouraging more app development. However, its impact on the market may take time to show. (Source)
3. Contract Builder Release (July 23, 2025)
Overview: The Hedera Contract Builder is a browser-based tool that lets developers write, deploy, and test smart contracts using Solidity (a popular programming language) without needing to install anything locally.
It connects directly to Hedera’s test network, speeding up the development process. In its first week, over 1,200 contracts were created using this tool.
Why it matters: This is good news for HBAR because making smart contract creation easier can boost decentralized finance (DeFi) projects and decentralized apps (dApps) on Hedera. (Source)
Conclusion
Hedera’s recent updates focus on making the platform more decentralized and developer-friendly while encouraging innovation in smart contracts. Open-source governance builds confidence among institutions, while tools like the CLI and Contract Builder support growth from the developer community. The big question is whether these improvements will lead to a significant increase in network activity as more developers start building on Hedera.
Why did the price of HBAR fall?
Hedera (HBAR) dropped 2.7% in the last 24 hours, underperforming the overall crypto market, which fell 1.9%. Here’s why:
- ETF Approval Delays – The SEC postponed its decision on Grayscale’s Hedera Trust ETF until November 12, 2025, cooling short-term excitement.
- Technical Breakdown – HBAR’s price fell below a key support level at $0.21, triggering automated sell-offs.
- Altcoin Weakness – Bitcoin’s market share rose to 58.2%, pulling investment away from altcoins like HBAR as investors become more cautious.
Deep Dive
1. ETF Delays Slow Momentum (Negative Impact)
Overview:
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) delayed its decision on Grayscale’s Hedera Trust ETF application until November 12, 2025 (SEC filing). This follows similar delays for Solana and XRP ETFs, showing regulators are cautious about approving altcoin-focused investment products.
What this means:
Although HBAR remains a strong candidate for an ETF under the new SEC rules, the extended timeline has reduced speculative buying. Many traders shifted their focus to Bitcoin ($BTC), which gained 0.3% in the last 24 hours, as ETF delays and Bitcoin’s rising dominance (58.2%) made it a safer choice.
What to watch:
Important upcoming dates include Canary Capital’s HBAR ETF decision on October 30 and Grayscale’s Trust decision on November 12. Approval could boost market sentiment.
2. Technical Indicators Point to Continued Weakness (Mixed Impact)
Overview:
HBAR’s price fell below its 7-day simple moving average (SMA) at $0.2265 and 30-day SMA at $0.2294. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 34.84, nearing oversold territory. The MACD indicator also turned negative, signaling weakening momentum.
What this means:
Automated trading systems likely accelerated the sell-off after the $0.21 support level was broken. However, the 200-day SMA at $0.2006 now acts as a near-term support level. If prices bounce here, it could stabilize the market.
Key level to watch:
If HBAR closes below $0.20, it risks testing its yearly low of $0.125, last seen in April 2025.
3. Altcoin Market Sentiment Cools (Negative Impact)
Overview:
The Altcoin Season Index dropped to 72, down 6.5% for the week, while Bitcoin’s dominance reached a three-month high. HBAR’s 24-hour trading volume increased 28.6% to $315 million, but selling pressure was strong.
What this means:
Investors are moving into a “risk-off” mindset amid rising leverage in the crypto market (total open interest up 8.2% to $1.12 trillion). HBAR’s price movement is closely linked to delays in XRP and SOL ETFs, which has weakened the broader altcoin sector.
Conclusion
HBAR’s recent decline reflects ongoing regulatory uncertainty, technical selling triggers, and a broader pullback from altcoins. While the potential for ETF approval and enterprise adoption—such as Wyoming’s FRNT stablecoin project—offer long-term growth opportunities, traders are currently cautious.
Key question: Can HBAR hold above $0.20 support ahead of the October ETF deadlines?