What could affect the price of HBAR?
HBAR’s price is currently influenced by a mix of hopeful ETF approvals, changes in staking rewards, and ongoing technical risks.
- ETF Approvals – The SEC’s decisions in October could open the door for more institutional investors.
- Staking Rewards Cut – Lower rewards (from 6.5% down to 2.5%) might reduce interest from everyday investors.
- Enterprise Adoption – Real-world uses like AI and carbon tracking are increasing HBAR’s practical value.
Deep Dive
1. Regulatory Catalysts & ETF Hype (Positive to Mixed Impact)
Overview: The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is speeding up decisions on spot HBAR ETFs, with key deadlines throughout October 2025. If approved, HBAR would become one of the first tokens outside of Bitcoin and Ethereum to have regulated investment options, similar to what happened with Bitcoin ETFs. However, if the SEC rejects these ETFs, it could cause short-term price swings.
What this means: Approval (Coingape) would boost HBAR’s credibility and attract traditional financial investors. On the other hand, delays or rejections might slow down growth until 2026.
2. Staking Algorithm Overhaul (Negative Impact)
Overview: In August 2023, Hedera updated its staking system, lowering rewards from 6.5% to 2.5% and linking payouts to how much the network is used. This change aims to make the system more sustainable over time but may discourage investors who stake HBAR to earn passive income.
What this means: Reduced staking rewards (Hedera Blog) could make HBAR less attractive to yield-focused investors, though growing business use might balance out some of this loss.
3. Real-World Adoption & Partnerships (Positive Impact)
Overview: Hedera is expanding its ecosystem with partnerships in AI governance (with EQTY Lab and NVIDIA), carbon tracking (Blockchain for Energy), and tokenized real estate projects worth over $100 million with StegX. These real-world applications add practical value to HBAR beyond just trading.
What this means: Increased enterprise use (CoinMarketCap) strengthens HBAR’s role in actual business operations, which can create steady demand and help stabilize prices during market downturns.
Conclusion
HBAR’s short-term price movements will largely depend on the SEC’s ETF decisions and changes in staking rewards. Its long-term success, however, is tied to how well it can grow through real-world business adoption. Keep an eye on the SEC’s rulings in October and the rising on-chain stablecoin activity (which grew 58% to $115 million in September) as signs of market liquidity.
Will Hedera’s growing institutional partnerships be enough to offset reduced interest from retail investors due to lower staking rewards?
What are people saying about HBAR?
HBAR’s social buzz swings between excitement over big gains and caution about pullbacks. Here’s what’s trending right now:
- Dreams of a $5 price from ETF news vs. warnings that HBAR is overbought
- Robinhood listing sparks an 8% price jump – can it hold above $0.255?
- Optimism around a “golden cross” chart pattern vs. skeptics calling it a temporary bounce
Deep Dive
1. @johnmorganFL: “HBAR $5 on ETF mania?” (bullish)
“Grayscale’s ETF filing + golden cross = potential 500% rally like in 2021”
– @johnmorganFL (189K followers · 2.1M impressions · 2025-08-13 18:28 UTC)
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What this means: Retail investors are excited about Grayscale’s application to launch an ETF (Exchange-Traded Fund) for HBAR. The $5 price target implies a market value of $210 billion, which is 23 times higher than today’s value. Historically, HBAR saw a 500% price increase after a similar “golden cross” chart signal.
2. CoinMarketCap Analysis: “Post-Robinhood consolidation” (neutral)
“HBAR holds $0.255 support after 8% Robinhood listing spike – 24-hour trading volume up 65% to $259 million”
– CMC Technical Team (Verified · 17.2M followers · 2025-07-26 21:25 UTC)
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What this means: Listing on Robinhood increased trading activity and liquidity for HBAR, pushing the price up 8%. However, the price is now facing resistance near its 20-day moving average of $0.219. Traders are watching the $0.251 to $0.255 range closely to see if HBAR can break higher.
3. TradingView Strategist: “RSI 85.17 = danger zone” (bearish)
“July rally left HBAR overbought – a 50% price drop to $0.19 likely before the next rise”
– @CryptoTactician (43K followers · 2025-07-18 07:59 UTC)
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What this means: HBAR’s 41% price jump in July pushed the Relative Strength Index (RSI), a measure of buying pressure, into an “overbought” zone. This suggests a pullback is likely, with a possible drop to $0.19 before the price can climb again. Bears (sellers) are watching for a break below $0.2376 as a sign of profit-taking.
Conclusion
The outlook for HBAR is mixed. On one side, ETF news and partnerships with big companies like Google and IBM support optimism. On the other, recent price drops and technical signals warn of possible corrections. The key event to watch is the SEC’s decision on ETF approvals in October 2025. If approved, it could spark a strong rally in alternative cryptocurrencies (“altseason”). If rejected, HBAR’s price might fall to around $0.18.
What is the latest news about HBAR?
Hedera (HBAR) is facing mixed signals from both regulatory developments and market trends. Here’s the latest update:
- SEC Speeds Up HBAR ETF Review (September 29, 2025) – The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is expected to make a final decision in October, which could open the door for more institutional investors.
- HBAR Hits Important Price Level (September 29, 2025) – A 2.37% price increase with doubled trading volume shows short-term positive momentum.
- Warning Signs in Market Trends (September 30, 2025) – A technical pattern called the “Death Cross” could threaten recent gains and signal a potential downturn.
In-Depth Look
1. SEC Speeds Up HBAR ETF Review (September 29, 2025)
What’s happening: The SEC has removed previous delays for approving spot ETFs (exchange-traded funds) based on HBAR. This means they plan to make a final decision by October. New rules allow faster reviews for crypto ETFs that meet certain standards for market surveillance and liquidity. Companies like Grayscale and Canary Capital have applied for these ETFs.
Why it matters: Approval of an HBAR ETF would make it easier for large U.S. investors, like pension funds and mutual funds, to invest in Hedera. This could increase trading activity and help stabilize the price. On the other hand, if the SEC rejects the ETF, it could cause price swings because many investors are hopeful about this approval (Coingape).
2. HBAR Hits Important Price Level (September 29, 2025)
What’s happening: HBAR’s price rose to $0.2172, with trading volume nearly twice the average over the past day. This bounce came after the price found support at $0.2131. The increase happened alongside a record high in crypto derivatives trading, which reached $9.72 trillion in August.
Why it matters: The strong trading volume suggests that big investors are showing interest in blockchain projects like Hedera, especially during uncertain economic times. However, if HBAR can’t break through the resistance level at $0.230, it might stay stuck in a downward price pattern known as a descending wedge (Coindesk).
3. Warning Signs in Market Trends (September 30, 2025)
What’s happening: Analysts are concerned about a “Death Cross,” which happens when a short-term moving average (50-day EMA) crosses below a long-term moving average (200-day EMA). This pattern often signals a potential price decline. HBAR currently has support at $0.213 and resistance at $0.219. If the price falls below $0.205, it could drop further to $0.198.
Why it matters: This is a cautious sign for HBAR. While some indicators show short-term buying pressure, other momentum signals are weakening. This aligns with a general feeling of fear in the crypto market, as measured by a fear index score of 43 (TokenPost).
Conclusion
HBAR is at a crossroads, balancing hopeful news about an ETF approval with technical warning signs in the market. October will be an important month to see if institutional investment interest can overcome these risks and support the price going forward.
What is expected in the development of HBAR?
Hedera’s roadmap is focused on growing its use by institutions, integrating artificial intelligence (AI), and expanding how real-world assets are represented on its network.
- AI Governance Partnership (Q4 2025) – Working with Accenture and EQTY Lab to create secure, tamper-proof tools for overseeing AI in government.
- HBAR ETF Decision (October 2025) – The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will decide on allowing an HBAR exchange-traded fund (ETF), which would open the door for traditional investors.
- Quantum-Resistant Security (2025) – Partnering with SEALSQ to develop advanced hardware that protects against future quantum computer threats.
- Real-World Asset Tokenization (Ongoing) – Expanding projects that turn real estate and stocks into digital tokens, with over $100 million in assets involved.
Deep Dive
1. AI Governance Partnership (Q4 2025)
Overview: Hedera is teaming up with Accenture and EQTY Lab to build tools that ensure AI systems used by governments are secure and transparent. This follows Hedera’s launch of its AI Studio in June 2025, which helps integrate trustworthy data into AI processes.
What this means: This is a positive sign for HBAR because it positions Hedera as a trusted platform for AI applications that require regulation and oversight. However, competitors like Ethereum and Solana are also working on combining AI with blockchain technology, so Hedera faces competition.
2. HBAR ETF Decision (October 2025)
Overview: The SEC will rule by October 2, 2025, on whether to approve Canary Capital’s spot HBAR ETF. If approved, this would allow institutional investors to buy HBAR through traditional financial markets, similar to existing Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs.
What this means: This is generally good news but with some caution. Approval could increase demand from large investors, but some of this optimism is already reflected in HBAR’s current price, which was around $0.22 as of late September.
3. Quantum-Resistant Security (2025)
Overview: Hedera is collaborating with SEALSQ Corp to launch the QS7001 hardware platform. This technology will provide digital signatures that are secure against future quantum computers, meeting U.S. government security standards.
What this means: This is a strong long-term positive because it addresses a major security concern for businesses. However, widespread use depends on how quickly quantum computing technology advances.
4. Real-World Asset Tokenization (Ongoing)
Overview: Hedera is growing its tokenization efforts through projects like StegX Finance, which handles over $100 million in real estate assets, and Swarm, which offers instant stock redemption pools. The network has processed over 20 billion transactions this year, with total value locked (TVL) in decentralized finance (DeFi) exceeding $270 million.
What this means: This shows growing practical use for HBAR beyond speculation. Tokenizing real-world assets can make the network more stable and useful, but success depends on clear regulations around these digital assets.
Conclusion
Hedera’s roadmap combines important technical improvements (like quantum-resistant security), connections to traditional finance (through ETFs), and real-world applications (AI governance and asset tokenization). The SEC’s ETF decision in October and the AI partnership launch in Q4 2025 will be key moments to watch. Since HBAR’s price is still about 60% below its 2025 peak of $0.30, regulatory developments could help boost momentum. Keep an eye on SEC announcements and the growth of stablecoins like USDC on Hedera, which increased by 45% in September.
What updates are there in the HBAR code base?
Hedera is making big moves to improve open governance, developer tools, and AI integration in its technology.
- Full Open-Source Transition (July 22, 2025) – Hedera’s codebase is now fully open-source under the Linux Foundation’s Project Hiero.
- Developer Automation CLI (June 25, 2025) – A new command-line tool simplifies deploying apps and managing accounts.
- AI Studio Integration (May 18, 2025) – AI workflows can now use Hedera’s secure, verifiable data features.
Deep Dive
1. Full Open-Source Transition (July 22, 2025)
What happened: Hedera became the first major public Layer 1 blockchain to fully open-source its code through Project Hiero, managed by the Linux Foundation’s decentralized division. This means anyone can review, contribute to, and help govern the network through Hedera Improvement Proposals (HIPs).
This change shifts control from Hedera’s core team to a neutral foundation, encouraging community-driven upgrades and reducing risks of central control. Developers and node operators can now suggest protocol changes directly.
Why it matters: This is a positive sign for HBAR because open governance builds trust and helps the network grow stronger over time. Open-source code also makes it easier for businesses to adopt Hedera, as it aligns with transparency and compliance standards. (Source)
2. Developer Automation CLI (June 25, 2025)
What happened: Hedera introduced a Command Line Interface (CLI) tool designed to make it easier for developers to set up test environments, automate tasks, and manage accounts. This tool reduces the need for manual coding when deploying smart contracts or handling wallets.
The CLI supports scripting for repetitive tasks like minting tokens or checking balances, speeding up development. It works with Hedera’s software development kits (SDKs) and offers similar features to Ethereum’s popular Truffle suite.
Why it matters: This update is neutral to positive for HBAR. Easier developer tools can attract more creators to build apps on Hedera, but the impact depends on how much the ecosystem grows. Faster workflows could lead to more decentralized apps (dApps), though any price effect on HBAR might take time. (Source)
3. AI Studio Integration (May 18, 2025)
What happened: Hedera launched an open-source AI Studio that lets developers anchor AI processes on Hedera’s consensus layer. This means AI data is time-stamped and tamper-proof, creating reliable audit trails—important for industries like healthcare and finance.
The AI Studio uses Hedera Token Service for small payments and Consensus Service for permanent logs. Early users include EQTY Lab and NVIDIA, who are applying this for AI supply chain tracking.
Why it matters: This is a positive development for HBAR because verifiable AI data can attract companies needing to meet strict regulations, potentially increasing network usage. However, success depends on AI developers adopting blockchain technology. (Source)
Conclusion
Hedera’s recent updates focus on decentralizing control, making development easier, and supporting enterprise-ready AI solutions. These align with Hedera’s goal to be a trusted foundation for Web3 and institutional applications. While open-source governance and new developer tools lower barriers to entry, the big question is whether AI integration will create lasting demand for HBAR.