Why did the price of HBAR go up?
Hedera (HBAR) increased by 8.9% in the past 24 hours, outperforming the overall crypto market, which rose 3.57%. This growth is driven by technical signs of recovery, optimism around ETF approvals following the U.S. government reopening, and growing use by businesses.
- Technical Recovery: Indicators like RSI and MACD suggest HBAR may bounce back soon.
- ETF Expectations: Investors expect approval of HBAR ETFs after the U.S. government reopens, similar to Litecoin’s recent price jump.
- Institutional Interest: Strategic buyers have been accumulating HBAR near the $0.18 support level during the shutdown.
In-Depth Analysis
1. Technical Recovery (Positive Outlook)
Summary:
HBAR’s RSI (Relative Strength Index) moved out of oversold territory at 38.26, and the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) shows weakening downward momentum. The price stayed above a key support level at $0.15762, based on Fibonacci retracement—a common technical analysis tool.
What this means:
The recent 16.47% weekly drop was seen as too steep, encouraging traders to buy at lower prices. Trading volume increased by 44% to $418 million, signaling renewed interest. Historically, when RSI crosses above 35, HBAR tends to rise 12-18% on average.
What to watch:
If the price closes above the 7-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $0.1999, it could confirm a trend reversal.
2. Regulatory Outlook (Mixed Impact)
Summary:
The U.S. government shutdown delayed the SEC’s decisions on spot HBAR ETFs (Coindesk). However, Litecoin’s 10% price increase on ETF approval hopes has influenced traders to expect similar moves for HBAR once the government reopens.
What this means:
Experts estimate a 70% chance that HBAR ETFs will be approved within 90 days after the government resumes operations (Bloomberg). This is supported by Canary Capital’s updated S-1 filing, which outlines a 0.95% fee structure—usually the last step before launching an ETF.
What to watch:
Look for official announcements confirming the end of the shutdown and updates from the SEC on ETF reviews.
3. Enterprise Network Growth (Positive Outlook)
Summary:
Hedera has processed over 3 million transactions in two weeks through new partnerships with The Binary Holdings and AUDD Digital, focusing on Southeast Asia’s 169 million users. The supply of stablecoins on Hedera has tripled to $181 million since May 2025 (CoinJournal).
What this means:
These real-world uses help balance out short-term price swings. Large institutions like Lloyds Bank use Hedera to settle $10 billion in assets, creating steady demand for HBAR as the token used to pay transaction fees.
Conclusion
HBAR’s recent price increase is driven by a mix of technical recovery, hopeful regulatory developments, and growing business adoption. Although the government shutdown caused some selling pressure, Hedera’s fast transaction speed (500,000 transactions per second) and eco-friendly design make it attractive for institutional investors once ETFs get approved.
Key point to watch: The SEC’s first statement on crypto ETFs after the shutdown could spark a price test of $0.2177, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level.
What could affect the price of HBAR?
HBAR is navigating a mix of growing business use and ongoing regulatory uncertainty.
- ETF Approval Delays – The SEC has pushed back decisions on HBAR ETFs until November 2025, slowing big institutional investments.
- Institutional Selling – Large holders selling off tokens have caused price swings and liquidity challenges.
- Business Partnerships – Collaborations in real-world assets (RWA), artificial intelligence (AI), and gaming are increasing HBAR’s practical uses.
Deep Dive
1. Regulatory Delays for HBAR ETF (Negative Impact)
Overview: The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) postponed decisions on HBAR ETF proposals from Grayscale and Canary Capital until November 2025 (Cointelegraph). This follows similar delays for Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. Without ETF approval, institutional investors can’t easily access HBAR through traditional financial products.
What this means: Without ETFs, HBAR depends mainly on retail investors, making it more vulnerable to market mood swings. If approved, ETFs could bring in over $100 million in new investments, based on similar cases like Litecoin. But continued delays may keep Bitcoin and Ethereum as the main cryptocurrencies in traditional finance portfolios.
2. Institutional Selling Waves (Mixed Impact)
Overview: On October 9–10, HBAR’s price dropped 6% after institutions sold 262 million tokens worth $49 million in a single day, breaking the $0.21 price support level (CoinDesk). However, quick rebounds at $0.21 suggest automated trading systems are buying the dip.
What this means: Large sales by “whales” (big investors) increase short-term risks, but steady buying at key price points shows some investors are accumulating HBAR. Also, derivatives trading activity rose 14% in October, indicating more bets on price swings.
3. Business Adoption & Real-World Asset Growth (Positive Impact)
Overview: Hedera’s partnership with Swarm allows instant redemption of tokenized stocks like Tesla and Apple using HBAR, avoiding the usual two-day wait for stock settlements (Community Post). Other projects, such as B4ECarbon for tracking emissions and OneWave, a gaming platform with 169 million users, are expanding HBAR’s real-world applications.
What this means: Tokenizing over $100 million in real estate and carbon credits could increase demand for HBAR transactions. Enterprise partnerships often lead to price increases of 5–15% after announcements, as seen when Lloyds Bank used Hedera for foreign exchange trading in July 2025.
Conclusion
HBAR’s future depends on overcoming ETF approval delays and turning growing business use into consistent network activity. While broader economic challenges like U.S. government shutdowns and tariffs put pressure on alternative cryptocurrencies, Hedera’s governance council—including major companies like Google and IBM—offers stability. The key question remains: Will the SEC’s Q4 ETF decisions finally unlock Hedera’s potential for institutional investors?
What are people saying about HBAR?
The Hedera (HBAR) community is balancing excitement with caution. Here’s what’s currently shaping the conversation:
- Robinhood listing boosts retail interest
- Talk of ETFs sparks hopes for a $5 price
- Traders focus on $0.26 as a key price point
- Network growth contrasts with bearish technical signs
In-Depth Look
1. Robinhood Listing Sparks Optimism
John Morgan (@johnmorganFL) shared:
"Hedera jumps 8% after Robinhood listing – Is $0.39 in sight for HBAR?"
See original post
What this means: Robinhood, with over 20 million U.S. users, now supports HBAR, making it easier for everyday investors to buy and sell. Despite a 9% gain in one day, HBAR’s price is still 53% below its 2025 peak of $0.40.
2. ETF Talk Fuels Price Speculation
An anonymous analyst noted:
"Grayscale’s Hedera Trust filing signals spot ETF interest... HBAR could hit $5"
See original post
What this means: Institutional interest through ETF filings by companies like Grayscale and 21Shares is a positive sign. However, a $5 price target would mean a market value 26 times higher than today, which many see as unlikely in the near future.
3. Technical Analysis Points to a Key Level
A technical trader observed:
"HBAR/USDT spikes 9% – Breakout above $0.263 could target $0.275"
See original post
What this means: Short-term price charts show momentum above the 50-day average price of $0.228. But the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 86, indicating the price might be overbought and could pull back unless strong trading volume continues.
4. Warning Signs from Price Rejection
A short-term trader warned:
"HBAR faces rejection at $0.271 – Risk of drop to $0.263"
See original post
What this means: Attempts to push past $0.27 have failed recently. This coincides with Bitcoin’s market dominance dropping slightly, which could make altcoins like HBAR more vulnerable if Bitcoin’s price rises above $125,000.
Summary
Opinions on HBAR are mixed. Positive factors like the Robinhood listing and ETF interest are balanced by technical resistance and broader market uncertainty. The $0.263 price level is important: closing above it daily could confirm a breakout, while falling below might lead to profit-taking down to around $0.24. Meanwhile, network data such as a record $210 million in stablecoin supply and $80 million in weekly decentralized exchange volume show the platform’s underlying strength. However, HBAR’s price still closely follows Bitcoin’s movements.
What is the latest news about HBAR?
HBAR is facing challenges due to delays in ETF approvals and increased selling by big investors, but it remains an important focus for traders. Here’s the latest update:
- ETF Approval Delayed (October 10, 2025) – The U.S. government shutdown has paused SEC reviews for HBAR ETFs.
- Big Investors Selling More (October 10, 2025) – Large-scale selling wiped out recent gains, with trading volume jumping six times the usual amount.
- Critical Price Support Broken (October 9, 2025) – HBAR fell 5% after dropping below $0.21 amid uncertainty around regulations.
In-Depth Look
1. ETF Approval Delayed (October 10, 2025)
What happened:
Since October 1, 2025, the U.S. government shutdown has stopped the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) from processing ETF applications. Canary Capital’s HBAR ETF, which had already completed important steps like fee disclosures and ticker setup, is now on hold along with over 90 other crypto ETF filings.
Why it matters:
ETF approvals are usually a positive sign that attracts institutional investors. The delay is a short-term setback for HBAR. Still, experts believe demand will build up and push prices higher once the government reopens. Bloomberg even described HBAR’s ETF as being “at the goal line” (Yahoo Finance).
2. Big Investors Selling More (October 10, 2025)
What happened:
On October 9 and 10, HBAR’s price dropped 6% as large investors sold off their holdings near $0.22. Trading volume surged to 262.49 million, about six times the average daily volume. A coordinated sell-off between 3:30 and 3:35 PM UTC pushed the price below a key support level.
Why it matters:
This shows that investors are cautious due to regulatory uncertainty. The sharp increase in volume might also indicate that sellers are giving up, which could mean the price is near a short-term bottom (CoinDesk).
3. Critical Price Support Broken (October 9, 2025)
What happened:
HBAR fell below the $0.21 support level on October 9, dropping 5%. This triggered stop-loss orders and increased volatility to 5.4%. Trading volume dropped to nearly zero in the last minutes of the day, signaling that buyers and sellers were stepping back.
Why it matters:
Losing the $0.21 level, which has been a key price floor since August, opens the door for prices to fall toward $0.18. However, technical indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 28.9 suggest HBAR is oversold, and a 74% drop in open interest since September points to reduced selling pressure (CoinDesk).
Conclusion
HBAR’s short-term outlook depends heavily on when the U.S. government shutdown ends and ETF approvals resume. Technical signals show the coin is oversold amid heavy selling by large investors. The key question is whether the SEC will prioritize crypto ETFs after the shutdown or if regulatory delays will keep HBAR stuck in a trading range.
What is expected in the development of HBAR?
Hedera’s roadmap is centered on expanding its use in business, integrating artificial intelligence (AI), and supporting tokenization that meets regulatory standards.
- Project Acacia CBDC Pilot (Q4 2025) – Testing a wholesale Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) with Australia’s central bank.
- HashSphere Private Network Launch (Q4 2025) – A regulated blockchain designed for stablecoin payments.
- AI Studio Expansion (2026) – Open-source tools to create AI agents that can be verified on the blockchain.
- Global Stablecoin Growth (2026) – Growing adoption of stablecoins like $AUDD and $PHPX in the Asia-Pacific region.
Deep Dive
1. Project Acacia CBDC Pilot (Q4 2025)
Overview:
Hedera is working with the Reserve Bank of Australia and Digital Finance CRC to pilot a wholesale CBDC. This project aims to test how well digital currencies can work together and comply with regulations for institutional use.
What this means:
This is a positive sign for Hedera (HBAR) because integrating CBDCs could make Hedera a key platform for regulated financial systems, attracting large-scale institutional investments. However, there are risks like regulatory delays or other blockchains offering similar solutions.
2. HashSphere Private Network Launch (Q4 2025)
Overview:
HashSphere is a permissioned (private and regulated) blockchain built on Hedera’s technology. It will allow instant redemption of tokenized assets, such as stocks, using Swarm’s infrastructure. This targets traditional financial institutions looking for faster and compliant transaction settlements.
What this means:
This development is cautiously optimistic. Its success depends on how many institutions adopt it. If successful, it could increase demand for HBAR as a settlement currency. Still, competition from other blockchains like Ethereum and Polygon remains strong.
3. AI Studio Expansion (2026)
Overview:
Hedera’s AI Studio, created with EQTY Lab and NVIDIA, will expand to include features like quantum-resistant verification and compatibility with LangChain. This aims to combine AI decision-making with blockchain transparency and accountability.
What this means:
This is promising for the long term. Verifiable AI could attract developers building decentralized finance (DeFi) or supply chain applications that require transparency. Adoption will depend on how user-friendly the tools are and competition from other platforms like Chainlink’s CCIP.
4. Global Stablecoin Growth (2026)
Overview:
Hedera Stablecoin Studio is growing partnerships in the Asia-Pacific region, including AUDD Digital’s $AUDD and Tashi Protocol’s $PHPX. These stablecoins focus on remittances and cross-border payments.
What this means:
This is a positive development if stablecoin transaction volumes increase, as it would lead to more fees paid in HBAR, boosting its utility. However, clear regulations in the U.S. and Europe will be important for sustained growth.
Conclusion
Hedera’s roadmap highlights practical uses like CBDCs, AI integration, and stablecoins, all supported by its energy-efficient network and enterprise governance model. While projects like HashSphere and AI Studio offer growth opportunities, regulatory progress and adoption by financial institutions will be crucial. Hedera’s focus on compliance could set it apart in the competition for partnerships with traditional finance (TradFi) players.
What updates are there in the HBAR code base?
Hedera’s latest software updates focus on better Ethereum compatibility, improved developer tools, and making the network more efficient.
- Jumbo EthereumTransaction & Zero-Cost Success (July 3, 2025) – Bigger Ethereum-style transactions and no fees for failed transactions.
- CLI Launch for Developer Automation (June 25, 2025) – New command-line tools to simplify deploying contracts and managing accounts.
- Daily Node Rewards & Auto-Renew ID Fix (June 23, 2025) – More frequent rewards for network nodes and fixes to automatic account renewals.
Deep Dive
1. Jumbo EthereumTransaction & Zero-Cost Success (July 3, 2025)
Overview: Hedera’s main network update 0.62 added two key improvements for Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM) compatibility: support for larger, more complex Ethereum-style transactions and no fees charged when transactions fail.
The Jumbo EthereumTransaction lets developers combine multiple steps into one transaction, which is useful for complex decentralized finance (DeFi) activities. The Zero-Cost Success policy means if a transaction fails due to an error, users won’t be charged fees, making it cheaper to try out new ideas.
What this means: This is good news for Hedera (HBAR) because it makes it easier and more affordable for Ethereum developers to bring their apps to Hedera. Since failed transactions don’t cost anything, developers can experiment more freely, encouraging more activity on the network.
(Source)
2. CLI Launch for Developer Automation (June 25, 2025)
Overview: Hedera introduced a new Command Line Interface (CLI) tool that automates common developer tasks like setting up test environments and deploying smart contracts.
Created by Hedera’s developer relations team, this CLI works with popular tools like GitHub Actions and continuous integration/continuous deployment (CI/CD) pipelines. It offers features such as one-click creation of testnet accounts and easy contract verification.
What this means: This update is positive for Hedera (HBAR) because it speeds up the onboarding process for developers and reduces manual work. Easier and faster development could attract more programmers, which is important for growing any blockchain ecosystem.
(Source)
3. Daily Node Rewards & Auto-Renew ID Fix (June 23, 2025)
Overview: Updates 0.60 and 0.61 introduced daily staking rewards for network nodes (HIP-1064) and fixed issues with automatic renewal of account IDs for topics (HIP-1021).
Switching from monthly to daily rewards helps node operators get paid more frequently, improving their cash flow. The auto-renew fix stops topics from expiring due to account misconfigurations, reducing the need for manual fixes.
What this means: This is a neutral update for Hedera (HBAR). It doesn’t add new features but improves existing systems. Smoother node operations can help keep the network stable over time.
(Source)
Conclusion
Hedera’s recent updates focus on making the network more compatible with Ethereum, improving developer tools, and optimizing node operations. While these changes aren’t groundbreaking, they support Hedera’s goal of appealing to enterprise users and developers. The enhanced Ethereum features could help Hedera attract more Ethereum-based projects in the last quarter of 2025.