Why did the price of HBAR fall?
Hedera (HBAR) dropped 4.81% in the last 24 hours, falling more than the overall crypto market, which declined by 1.65%. Over the past 30 days, HBAR has lost 32.25% of its value. This decline is due to technical issues, weak activity in decentralized finance (DeFi), and negative market sentiment.
- Technical Breakdown – Important price support levels were broken, and while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows the coin is oversold, there’s no clear sign of a price rebound yet.
- Ecosystem Weakness – The total value locked (TVL) in Hedera’s DeFi projects dropped 30% in 30 days, and stablecoin adoption remains low.
- Market Sentiment – The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is at 25, indicating “Fear,” and investors are moving away from altcoins like HBAR.
Deep Dive
1. Technical Breakdown (Bearish Impact)
Overview: HBAR’s price fell below a key support level of $0.17 and is approaching a “death cross,” which happens when the short-term 50-day moving average crosses below the long-term 200-day moving average—a sign that prices may continue to fall. The RSI, a measure of whether an asset is overbought or oversold, is at 27.8, suggesting HBAR is oversold. However, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains negative, showing ongoing downward momentum. Resistance and support levels based on Fibonacci retracement are at $0.215 and $0.156, respectively.
What this means: Although the oversold condition could lead to a short-term price bounce, the lack of positive signals and high selling volume ($414 million, up 23.65% year-over-year) suggest the price may continue to drop. Traders are closely watching the $0.16 level as a critical support point.
2. Ecosystem Weakness (Bearish Impact)
Overview: The total value locked in Hedera’s DeFi projects has fallen to $168 million, a 30% decline over the past month. This is much smaller compared to competitors like Base, which holds $383 million. Hedera’s Stablecoin Studio has only $89 million in stablecoins, struggling to gain a foothold in the $300 billion-plus stablecoin market.
What this means: Low adoption in key areas like DeFi and payments weakens the case for HBAR’s usefulness. Despite partnerships with major companies like Google and Boeing, real-world use of Hedera remains limited, according to Crypto.News.
3. Macro Sentiment & Liquidation Pressure (Mixed Impact)
Overview: The broader crypto market has been affected by U.S.-China trade tensions and investors pulling money out of altcoins. HBAR experienced $6.42 million in spot market withdrawals over three days, as reported by Coinglass.
What this means: HBAR’s price drop reflects a general risk-off mood in the crypto market. However, its weaker performance compared to Bitcoin (which has a dominance of 58.91%) points to specific challenges facing this coin.
Conclusion
HBAR’s recent decline is driven by a combination of technical issues, a slowing ecosystem, and broader market pressures. While oversold indicators suggest a possible short-term recovery, it’s crucial for HBAR to regain the $0.17 level to reverse the downward trend.
Key watch: Will HBAR hold the $0.16 support level, or will breaking it lead to a retest of the October low near $0.10? Keep an eye on DeFi TVL trends and any news about exchange-traded fund (ETF) developments for potential market-moving events.
What could affect the price of HBAR?
HBAR is caught between hopes for big business use and some technical challenges.
- Token Unlocks (Bearish) – 66% of the total supply hasn’t entered the market yet, which could lead to price drops.
- ETF Outlook (Mixed) – Grayscale has applied for an HBAR ETF, but the SEC is delaying decisions.
- DeFi Weakness (Bearish) – The total value locked (TVL) in Hedera’s DeFi is down 30% in the last month, lagging behind competitors.
Deep Dive
1. Token Unlocks & Inflation Risk (Bearish Impact)
What’s happening:
Out of a maximum 50 billion HBAR tokens, only about 42 billion (84%) are currently in circulation. Tokens held by founders and executives (about 4-6% of supply) will continue to unlock through 2025 and 2026. This means more tokens will keep entering the market, which can put downward pressure on the price. Recently, the price dropped 38% compared to last year, coinciding with faster token unlocks.
Why it matters:
Past unlock events have led to price drops (for example, a 17% decline in 2023 after an unlock). Until 2026, roughly 1.2 billion HBAR tokens will be added to the market each month. For the price to stay stable or rise, demand needs to keep up with this increasing supply.
2. Institutional Adoption vs. DeFi Struggles (Mixed Impact)
What’s happening:
Hedera’s governing council includes big companies like Google and IBM, which are helping launch projects such as Wyoming’s stablecoin and AI Studio. However, Hedera’s decentralized finance (DeFi) sector is struggling. Its total value locked (TVL) is $168 million, much lower than competitors like Base, which has $1.8 billion. Plus, Hedera’s TVL dropped 30% in the past month (source).
Why it matters:
Partnerships with real-world businesses (like Blockchain for Energy) could increase Hedera’s usefulness. But if DeFi activity stays weak, developers might move to other blockchains offering better returns. For HBAR’s price to improve, it needs strong enterprise adoption to make up for low retail interest.
3. Regulatory Hurdles & ETF Timeline (Bearish Near-Term)
What’s happening:
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) delayed Canary’s HBAR ETF approval until September 2025 (source). Grayscale’s ETF application, expected in August 2025, faces similar challenges. Analysts estimate less than a 30% chance of approval.
Why it matters:
HBAR might be classified as a security, which complicates ETF approvals. Without regulatory clarity, big investors may hold back, leaving HBAR’s price vulnerable to broader market moves like Federal Reserve interest rate changes.
Conclusion
HBAR’s price depends on balancing the increase in token supply with successful adoption by large companies. While connections to major firms offer long-term potential, short-term risks include selling pressure from token unlocks and delays in ETF approvals. The key question is: Can Hedera’s AI and stablecoin projects attract enough interest to offset losses in DeFi before more tokens unlock in Q4? Watch the $0.16 price level closely—if it falls below that, the next target could be $0.10, the low seen in 2025.
What are people saying about HBAR?
The Hedera (HBAR) community is divided between excitement over potential price gains and concerns about possible declines. Here’s what’s currently making headlines:
- ETF speculation – Nasdaq’s recent filing has sparked price targets above $0.40
- Technical battle – Buyers aim for a breakout above $0.26, while sellers push toward $0.14
- Robinhood impact – A 12% price jump after listing was followed by an 8% drop over the weekend
In-Depth Look
1. Enterprise Adoption Gains Momentum 🚀
Hedera is not just another blockchain. It’s a Layer 1 platform designed for practical use, offering fast transaction speeds (up to 10,000 transactions per second), backed by major companies like Google and IBM, and highly energy-efficient (using just 0.0000003 kWh per transaction).
– Source: @hedera on X
What this means: This is a positive sign for the long term as more businesses use Hedera for things like supply chain management and tracking carbon emissions. However, the large number of tokens that could be released in the future (up to 50 billion) may put some pressure on the price.
2. Robinhood Listing Sparks Short-Term Volatility 📉
After Hedera was listed on Robinhood, its price jumped 12% to about $0.2657 but then dropped back to $0.244 within two days.
– Source: @johnmorganFL on X
What this means: In the short term, this is neutral. While easier access on Robinhood helps trading activity, overall trading volume actually fell by 15% after the listing, according to CoinMarketCap.
3. Technical Indicators Show Mixed Signals ⚖️
Technical analysis shows Hedera’s price is recovering, with indicators like RSI (Relative Strength Index) at 83.4, which suggests the asset might be overbought, and a bullish MACD crossover. AI models predict a price of $0.25 by July 31, compared to the current $0.162, which is down 33% over the past 30 days.
– Source: @gemxbt_agent on X
What this means: Near-term outlook is cautious. The RSI at 86.66 indicates the price may be overextended, and if Bitcoin’s dominance remains high (58.97%), Hedera could retest support around $0.14.
Conclusion
The outlook for Hedera (HBAR) is mixed. On one hand, growing enterprise use and potential ETF approvals (with a 90% chance of approval according to Canary) provide positive momentum. On the other hand, technical indicators suggest the price may be overextended, and broader market challenges remain. The $0.12–$0.14 price range is a key support zone to watch. A sustained move above the 50-day simple moving average (around $0.185) could signal a trend reversal, while failure to hold this level might lead to a drop toward 2024 lows.
Will Hedera’s impressive 218% yearly gain overcome the recent 38.6% decline over 90 days? Keep an eye on derivatives open interest ($450 million) for signs of strong market conviction.
What is the latest news about HBAR?
Hedera (HBAR) is facing some challenges with its price and market trends, but it’s also making progress in enterprise blockchain technology. Here’s a quick summary of the latest news:
- Technical Challenges Grow (October 17, 2025) – HBAR’s price is dropping and approaching a “death cross,” a technical signal that often points to further declines.
- Geopolitical Issues Impact Price (October 17, 2025) – The token fell 11% in one day due to trade tensions and big investors selling off.
- Bitcoin.h Launches Fixed Supply Token (October 17, 2025) – A new digital asset on Hedera with a capped supply is now live, aimed at environmentally conscious users.
In-Depth Look
1. Technical Challenges Grow (October 17, 2025)
What’s happening: Since August, HBAR’s price has dropped by half, from about $0.31 to $0.16. It’s close to a “death cross,” which happens when short-term price averages fall below long-term averages, often signaling more price drops ahead. Important price levels to watch are $0.21 and $0.10, especially after the price fell below a key technical indicator called the Ichimoku Cloud. Hedera’s presence in decentralized finance (DeFi) is still small, with total locked value at $168 million (down 30% from last month) and stablecoin supply at $89 million, which is low compared to bigger platforms.
Why it matters: These technical signs suggest that investors are losing confidence. Even though big companies like Google, IBM, and Boeing are part of Hedera’s governance council, it’s not clear how much they actually use the blockchain. This uncertainty could lead to more price drops. (Crypto.News)
2. Geopolitical Issues Impact Price (October 17, 2025)
What’s happening: HBAR’s price dropped 11% in one day amid worries about U.S.-China trade tensions and speculation about interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Trading volume surged to 175 million tokens during this sell-off, with resistance forming around $0.17. Analysts note that Hedera’s price is becoming more sensitive to broader economic risks, as stablecoin payment volumes have reached $19.4 billion so far this year.
Why it matters: Hedera’s price movements are increasingly influenced by traditional financial markets. While the $0.16 price level held briefly, ongoing negative momentum and weakness in other alternative cryptocurrencies suggest the price may continue to consolidate or fall. (CoinDesk)
3. Bitcoin.h Launches Fixed Supply Token (October 17, 2025)
What’s happening: Bitcoin.h, a new digital asset built on Hedera, officially launched with a fixed supply of 21 million tokens. It uses Hedera’s energy-efficient technology (only 0.000003 kWh per transaction) and quantum-resistant security features. This token is designed for users who want a transparent, limited supply without the environmental impact of traditional Proof-of-Work cryptocurrencies.
Why it matters: Although this is a niche product, it highlights Hedera’s strength in supporting enterprise-level projects focused on environmental, social, and governance (ESG) goals. Its success will depend on exchanges like Biconomy and SaucerSwap providing enough liquidity for trading. (Decrypt)
Conclusion
HBAR is currently caught between weakening market trends and growing adoption by businesses. With the altcoin market cooling off sharply (the altcoin index is down 65% this month), the price range between $0.10 and $0.16 will be a key test for buyers. The question remains: can Hedera’s partnerships with major companies help overcome challenges in decentralized finance and regulatory concerns?
What is expected in the development of HBAR?
I wasn’t able to find enough information to answer this question right now. The CoinMarketCap team is continuously updating my crypto knowledge, so I expect to have more details soon. Meanwhile, please feel free to choose another question or coin for analysis.
What updates are there in the HBAR code base?
Hedera’s technology has recently received important updates in governance, developer tools, and network performance.
- Full Open-Source Transition (July 22, 2025) – Hedera’s code was donated to the Linux Foundation’s Project Hiero to enable community-led governance.
- Hedera CLI Launch (June 25, 2025) – A new tool that helps developers automate deployment and manage accounts more easily.
- Mainnet Upgrades (June–July 2025) – Added Ethereum compatibility, daily rewards for network nodes, and improved fee structures.
Deep Dive
1. Full Open-Source Transition (July 22, 2025)
Overview: Hedera handed over its codebase to Project Hiero, a Linux Foundation initiative, allowing the community to contribute and govern the project together.
This means anyone can review, suggest changes, or improve the code through Hedera Improvement Proposals (HIPs). The project now benefits from neutral, enterprise-level governance, supporting the idea of decentralization in Web3.
Why it matters: This is positive for HBAR because it reduces dependence on a single company, increases transparency, and encourages more developers to innovate on the platform. (Source)
2. Hedera CLI Launch (June 25, 2025)
Overview: The Hedera Command Line Interface (CLI) is a new tool that makes it easier for developers to deploy smart contracts and manage accounts by automating repetitive tasks.
It’s similar to Ethereum’s Truffle suite, which helps developers work more efficiently by simplifying complex processes.
Why it matters: While this may not immediately impact HBAR’s price, it’s a positive step for the long term. A better developer experience can attract more projects and growth to Hedera’s ecosystem. (Source)
3. Mainnet Upgrades (June–July 2025)
Overview: Recent updates (versions 0.60 to 0.62) brought Ethereum compatibility and incentives for network participants.
- HIP-1064 (June 23): Introduced daily rewards for active nodes to strengthen network security.
- HIP-1021 (June 23): Made auto-renewal of topic accounts easier and more efficient.
- Jumbo EthereumTransactions (July 3): Added support for larger Ethereum-style transactions.
Why it matters: These upgrades are good news for HBAR because they lower transaction fees, improve compatibility with Ethereum (a major blockchain), and reward those who help maintain the network. This could lead to more users and projects joining Hedera. (Source)
Conclusion
Hedera’s recent updates focus on making the platform more decentralized, easier for developers to use, and compatible with other blockchains like Ethereum. While short-term price changes depend on the overall market, these improvements set HBAR up for long-term growth.
Will Hedera’s move to open-source and Ethereum compatibility attract new institutional users in 2026?