Why did the price of SOL go up?

Solana (SOL) increased by 2.08% in the past 24 hours, slightly underperforming the overall cryptocurrency market, which rose by 2.66%. Here are the main reasons behind this movement:

1. ETF Approval Optimism (Positive) – The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has simplified the approval process for altcoin ETFs by removing a specific filing requirement.
2. Institutional Investment (Positive) – Despite overall crypto outflows, $291 million flowed into Solana funds last week.
3. Technical Price Movement (Mixed) – Solana’s price remains above important moving averages, but some technical indicators suggest caution.

Detailed Analysis

1. Faster ETF Approval Process (Positive Impact)

What happened: The SEC told applicants for Solana ETFs to withdraw a complicated filing called the 19b-4 after approving general listing rules. This change speeds up the approval process by cutting out extra paperwork (Coindesk).

Why it matters:

• ETF issuers now only need SEC approval for their main registration documents (S-1 filings), avoiding lengthy debates over exchange rules.
• Experts at Bloomberg say approvals could happen much faster—possibly in days instead of the usual 240 days.
• Important upcoming deadlines include the Litecoin ETF decision on October 2 and the Solana ETF decision on October 10.

What to watch: Whether the SEC approves the Rex-Osprey Solana staking ETF (SSK) before the October 10 deadline.

2. Institutional Investors Moving Into Solana (Positive Impact)

What happened: According to CoinShares, Solana funds received $291 million last week, making it the only major altcoin with net positive inflows. Meanwhile, Bitcoin ETFs saw $719 million in outflows.

Why it matters:

• Traditional financial investors seem to prefer Solana’s 7% staking yield and the potential for an ETF over Bitcoin and Ethereum.
• FalconX has launched 24/7 over-the-counter options trading for Solana (Crypto.News), showing growing demand from institutional investors.
• However, there is a bearish note as Forward Industries, the largest holder of Solana’s treasury, saw its stock drop 10% amid increased scrutiny.

3. Technical Price Trends (Mixed Impact)

What happened: Solana’s price has bounced back above its 7-day simple moving average (SMA) at $208.29 and a key pivot point at $206.65 but is facing resistance near the 30-day SMA at $219.34.

Why it matters:

• The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 46.74, indicating neutral momentum—not too strong or weak.
• The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) shows a bearish divergence, suggesting that upward momentum might be weakening.
• A key Fibonacci retracement level to watch is at $238.56, which could act as resistance.

Summary

Solana’s recent gains are supported by faster ETF approval processes and increased institutional interest in high-yield altcoins. However, technical indicators suggest some resistance ahead. While the SEC’s rule change removes a major hurdle for ETF approval, the possibility of a U.S. government shutdown (with a 69% chance according to Polymarket) could delay final decisions.

Key point to monitor: Can Solana maintain support at $206 if ETF approvals are delayed beyond October 10? Also, watch Solana’s dominance compared to Bitcoin for signs of shifting investor interest in altcoins.

What could affect the price of SOL?

Solana’s price is caught between positive developments and potential challenges.

1. Alpenglow Upgrade (Positive) – By December 2025, transactions could finalize in just 150 milliseconds, making Solana faster and more appealing.
2. ETF Approval (Uncertain) – The SEC’s decision by October 16 could bring over $10 billion in investments or cause price swings.
3. Whale Activity (Positive with Caution) – Big investors bought $315 million worth of SOL during price dips, but some selling of $41 million is expected.

In-Depth Look

1. Alpenglow Upgrade & Network Speed (Positive)

What’s Happening:
Solana is rolling out the Alpenglow upgrade, approved by nearly all network validators, aiming to reduce the time it takes to confirm transactions to 150 milliseconds by the end of 2025. Alongside this, Jump Crypto’s Firedancer software will allow Solana to handle over 1 million transactions per second (TPS). This is a big improvement from the 1,200 TPS during the January meme coin surge, which increased to 1,800 TPS after recent upgrades.

Why It Matters:
Faster transaction times mean smoother experiences for users on exchanges and decentralized finance (DeFi) platforms. This could attract developers who currently work on Ethereum to switch to Solana. For context, when Solana increased its block capacity by 20% in July, its price jumped 25% (Anza).

2. ETF Approval & Regulatory Outlook (Uncertain)

What’s Happening:
Eight companies, including Fidelity and VanEck, have applied to the SEC for approval to launch spot Solana ETFs, with a decision expected by October 16. If approved, this could lead to a surge in investments similar to Bitcoin’s 78% price increase after its ETF approval. However, Solana faces regulatory challenges since the SEC labeled it an unregistered security in 2023 lawsuits.

Why It Matters:
Approval would allow retirement accounts and index funds to invest in Solana, and staking ETFs could offer attractive yields of 7-8%. If rejected, Solana’s price might drop to around $171, though appeals could follow. Bitcoin ETFs attracted $48.6 billion in investments, so similar demand could push Solana’s price to $250 (Bloomberg).

3. Whale Activity & Ecosystem Growth (Positive with Caution)

What’s Happening:
Large investors, or “whales,” purchased 1.5 million SOL tokens worth $315 million during September’s price dip below $200. However, Galaxy Digital recently unstaked 250,000 SOL (about $40.7 million), possibly preparing to sell. Solana is also leading Ethereum in decentralized exchange (DEX) trading volume ($1.4 trillion vs. $699 billion), and real-world asset tokenization on Solana has grown 140% this year to $671 million.

Why It Matters:
Retail investors are accumulating SOL, and institutional projects like Franklin Templeton’s tokenized fund show growing confidence. But there is risk: leveraged traders hold $14.5 billion in open positions, which could lead to forced selling if prices fall below $206 (Lookonchain).

Conclusion

Solana’s future price depends on successfully rolling out upgrades to outpace Ethereum and gaining ETF approval to attract traditional financial investors. While support from big investors and growth in DeFi provide stability, regulatory uncertainty and leveraged trading add risk. The SEC’s ETF decision on October 16 will be a key moment—will it confirm Solana as a “commodity” or raise new security concerns? Keep an eye on CME SOL futures (1.75 million contracts) for signs of institutional sentiment.

What are people saying about SOL?

The Solana (SOL) community is divided between excitement over potential price gains and caution due to technical risks. Here’s what’s trending right now:

1. A “cup-and-handle” chart pattern points to a possible $425 price target
2. Optimism about an ETF approval clashes with the risk of a drop to $160
3. Concerns about network reliability are back in the conversation

Deep Dive

1. Bullish Chart Pattern Signals Upside Potential

@GreenBnz shared a technical analysis highlighting a “cup-and-handle” pattern for SOL, suggesting the price could rise to around $425 if it breaks above the $208 resistance level. This pattern is often seen as a positive sign in trading, indicating a potential upward move. However, it’s important to remember that such patterns don’t always play out the same way in cryptocurrency markets, which can be unpredictable.
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2. Risk of Price Drop if Support Fails

On the other hand, @mkbijaksana warns that SOL recently failed to hold above $205 and could fall to about $156 if it loses the $200 support level. This would represent a roughly 22% correction. Weekend trading often sees lower liquidity, which can make price drops more severe in crypto markets.
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3. Institutional Interest Grows

@Cipher2X points out that large investors are accumulating SOL, with billion-dollar funds holding around $1.7 billion worth of the coin. This institutional buying, along with optimism about an upcoming ETF approval (which recent polls suggest has about a 90% chance), could help support the price against retail selling pressure.
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Conclusion

The outlook for Solana is mixed. On one side, there’s strong institutional interest and hopeful chart patterns suggesting prices could rise above $250. On the other, technical challenges and past network outages keep some investors cautious, eyeing a possible drop to $160. The key level to watch is $200 — if SOL stays above this, the bullish “cup-and-handle” pattern might play out. But if it falls below, it could trigger a wave of selling. Stay tuned to how the price moves around this important point.

What is the latest news about SOL?

Solana is making big moves with technical upgrades and new ways for institutions to get involved. Here’s what’s happening:

1. Speed Upgrade Proposal (September 29, 2025) – Jump Crypto’s SIMD-0370 aims to make Solana faster and more efficient for validators.
2. Bullet L2 Targets Centralized Exchange Perpetuals (September 29, 2025) – A new Solana rollup chain is set to compete with centralized derivatives trading.
3. eToro Launches US Staking (September 29, 2025) – US retail investors can now easily stake SOL and earn rewards.

Deep Dive

1. Speed Upgrade Proposal (September 29, 2025)

What’s happening:
Jump Crypto’s Firedancer team proposed a new upgrade called SIMD-0370. This changes Solana’s current fixed limit on how much computing power each block can use, allowing it to adjust dynamically based on the validator’s hardware. This means validators with better hardware can process bigger blocks, encouraging upgrades. Combined with a planned consensus upgrade in December that speeds up transaction finality to 150 milliseconds, Solana’s transaction speed could surpass its current 65,000 transactions per second (TPS).

Why it matters:
This is good news for SOL because faster and more flexible block processing can attract high-frequency trading apps and reduce network congestion. It may also encourage more validators to join, which helps keep the network decentralized. (Bitcoinist)

2. Bullet L2 Targets Centralized Exchange Perpetuals (September 29, 2025)

What’s happening:
Bullet, formerly known as Zeta Markets, launched a new Layer 2 rollup on Solana that uses Celestia for data availability. This rollup focuses on offering perpetual contracts similar to those on centralized exchanges (CEX). Early tests show it can process trades with just 1.2 milliseconds of delay, compared to Solana’s usual 400 milliseconds. The mainnet launch is planned for late 2025.

Why it matters:
This development is cautiously optimistic. If Bullet succeeds, it could take a share of the derivatives trading volume—currently about 70% of all crypto trading—from centralized exchanges to Solana’s ecosystem. However, it faces competition from existing players like Hyperliquid and Solana-based decentralized exchanges such as Jupiter and Drift. (Blockworks)

3. eToro Launches US Staking (September 29, 2025)

What’s happening:
eToro has added SOL staking for US users, joining other popular cryptocurrencies like Ethereum and Cardano. This service makes it easy for retail investors to earn rewards by staking SOL without needing to manage their own wallets.

Why it matters:
This is a positive step for adoption. Making staking more accessible could increase the amount of SOL that’s locked up, reducing the circulating supply (currently about 543.6 million SOL). However, the exact annual percentage yield (APY) hasn’t been disclosed, and regulatory concerns around staking services remain something to watch. (Finance Magnates)

Conclusion

Solana is pushing forward with improvements in speed, new ways to trade derivatives, and easier staking options for everyday investors. With SOL’s price up 3.5% in the last 24 hours to $210.77, these updates could help keep its recent strong momentum going—especially as it competes with Ethereum’s growing Layer 2 solutions.

What is expected in the development of SOL?

Solana’s upcoming plans focus on improving its technology and attracting big financial players:

1. Alpenglow Consensus Upgrade (Late 2025) – Speeding up transaction finality to 150 milliseconds.
2. DoubleZero P2P Network (Mid-September 2025) – Using a dedicated fiber network to reduce delays.
3. Block Capacity Expansion (Late 2025) – Increasing processing power to handle more transactions per second.
4. Internet Capital Markets Vision (2027) – Introducing new tools for programmable financial markets.

In-Depth Look

1. Alpenglow Consensus Upgrade (Late 2025)

What it is:
This upgrade aims to cut the time it takes to confirm a transaction from about 12 seconds down to just 150 milliseconds — that’s a 98% improvement. It does this by simplifying how the network agrees on transactions and allowing smart contracts to run in parallel.

Why it matters:
Faster transaction finality makes Solana more attractive to high-speed traders and improves experiences for decentralized finance (DeFi) and NFT users. However, balancing this speed with keeping the network decentralized remains a challenge (Blockworks).

2. DoubleZero P2P Network (Mid-September 2025)

What it is:
DoubleZero replaces the usual internet connections between validators with a special fiber-optic network. This cuts down the delay in communication from around 200 milliseconds to less than 5 milliseconds. Over 100 validators, representing 3% of the network’s stake, are already testing this.

Why it matters:
This upgrade helps institutional validators perform as well as centralized exchanges, which is good for Solana’s growth. The downside is the risk of centralization if access to this fiber network is limited to certain locations (Cointelegraph).

3. Block Capacity Expansion (Late 2025)

What it is:
Building on a July proposal to increase compute units per block from 60 million to 100 million (SIMD-0286), Solana plans to boost capacity by another 20-30%. This will allow the network to handle over 2,500 transactions per second reliably.

Why it matters:
More capacity means Solana can support large-scale applications like gaming and real-world assets (RWAs). But bigger blocks require more powerful hardware, which could make it harder for smaller validators to participate (CoinMarketCap).

4. Internet Capital Markets Vision (2027)

What it is:
By 2027, Solana plans to introduce Application-Controlled Execution (ACE), which lets decentralized apps control the order of transactions, and Multi-Leader Consensus (MCL), enabling multiple blocks to be produced at the same time.

Why it matters:
These features aim to compete with traditional financial systems by enabling programmable markets. Success depends on clear regulations around tokenized assets and adoption by institutional players (CoinMarketCap).

Conclusion

Solana’s roadmap combines technical upgrades like Alpenglow and DoubleZero to strengthen its position as a fast blockchain, with strategic moves like ACE and MCL to transform global capital markets. With validator earnings reaching $800 million in Q2 2025 and institutional ETFs on the horizon, the key question is whether Solana can keep its high transaction speeds (1,700–1,800 TPS) while staying decentralized.

What updates are there in the SOL code base?

Solana’s software is being updated to handle more users and improve its infrastructure.

1. RPC Migration to Agave v2 (December 2024) – Older API methods were replaced with newer ones to keep things up-to-date and easier for developers.
2. Block Capacity Boost via SIMD-0256 (July 2025) – The network’s processing power increased by 20%, allowing it to handle more transactions smoothly.
3. Firedancer Client Development (2025) – A new validator client is being tested to boost transaction speeds to over 1 million per second.

Deep Dive

1. RPC Migration to Agave v2 (December 2024)

Overview:
Solana updated its solana-web3.js software library by replacing outdated Remote Procedure Call (RPC) methods like getConfirmedBlock with newer ones such as getBlock. These changes keep the system compatible with the latest network upgrades while improving clarity.

What this means:
This update doesn’t change how Solana works for users but makes it easier for developers to build apps. It also prepares the network for future improvements. (Source)

2. Block Capacity Boost via SIMD-0256 (July 2025)

Overview:
Solana increased its block processing capacity from 48 million to 60 million Compute Units, which translates to about 1,800 transactions per second (TPS) on the main network. This helps reduce delays during busy times, like popular token launches.

What this means:
This upgrade is positive for Solana because it lowers the chance of transaction failures and supports more complex decentralized applications (dApps), especially in areas like decentralized finance (DeFi). (Source)

3. Firedancer Client Development (2025)

Overview:
Jump Crypto is testing a new validator client called Firedancer. This client aims to increase Solana’s transaction speed to over 1 million TPS and improve network stability by adding diversity to the software validators use.

What this means:
If successful, Firedancer could make Solana one of the fastest Layer 1 blockchains, attracting big institutional projects. However, it’s important to watch how this affects the network’s decentralization. (Source)

Conclusion

Solana is focusing on scaling its network through software upgrades and new validator technology. While recent updates maintain compatibility, bigger changes like SIMD-0256 and Firedancer show promise for major improvements.

Will Solana’s efforts to massively increase speed strengthen its position in the market without sacrificing decentralization?