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What could affect the price of SOL?

Solana’s price outlook shows a mix of positive and negative factors. On the plus side, potential approval of ETFs and upcoming technology upgrades could boost demand. On the downside, regulatory questions and network challenges create uncertainty.

  1. ETF Approvals (Positive) – The SEC’s decisions on spot Solana ETFs could open the door for more institutional investors.
  2. Alpenglow Upgrade (Positive) – Faster transaction finality and improved network performance aim to make Solana more efficient.
  3. Regulatory Risks (Negative) – The SEC is still reviewing whether SOL should be classified as a security, which could impact its availability on U.S. exchanges.

In-Depth Look

1. ETF Momentum & Institutional Demand (Positive)

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is currently reviewing several applications for spot Solana ETFs from firms like VanEck, 21Shares, and Bitwise. Experts believe there’s about a 90% chance these ETFs will be approved by late 2025. Notably, Fidelity’s ETF proposal includes staking rewards, which would be a first for crypto ETFs. If approved, these ETFs could attract significant institutional investment, similar to what we’ve seen with Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, which brought in over $2.3 billion in September 2025 (Bloomberg).

What this means for Solana: ETFs make it easier for large investors to buy SOL, potentially increasing demand for the limited number of coins available (545 million circulating out of 611 million total). The inclusion of staking rewards, offering around 7-8% annual returns, adds an attractive passive income option. However, delays in SEC decisions, like the recent extension to October 16, could cause short-term price swings.

2. Network Upgrades & Scalability (Positive)

Solana’s roadmap for 2027 aims to make it a leader in internet-based financial markets. Key upcoming upgrades include:

Why this matters: Solana has faced network congestion in the past, such as during a meme coin surge in January 2025 that dropped transaction speeds to 1,200 per second. These upgrades aim to maintain speeds of 1,700-1,800 transactions per second and eventually reach over 100,000 TPS with future improvements like Firedancer. This would strengthen Solana’s position in decentralized finance (DeFi) and real-world asset (RWA) applications.

3. Regulatory & Competitive Risks (Mixed)

The SEC’s ongoing review of whether SOL is a security remains a major risk. If classified as a security, Solana could face restrictions on U.S. exchanges. However, some staking protocols like Jito have recently received regulatory exemptions, which is a positive sign.

Competition is also heating up. Ethereum’s Layer 2 solutions like Arbitrum and Base, along with newer blockchains like Sui and Aptos, are vying for developer attention and market share.

What this means: While a security classification would be a setback in the U.S., Solana’s strong user base outside the U.S.—with over 45% of activity coming from Asia—could help offset this. Additionally, Solana’s app revenue reached $1.6 billion in Q3 2025, a fourfold increase from six months earlier, and its real-world asset growth of 14.6% outpaces Ethereum’s 3.6%, showing resilience despite competition.

Conclusion

Solana’s price will likely be influenced by the balance between ETF approvals (which are positive) and regulatory uncertainty (which is negative). Its upcoming technology upgrades should help maintain its leadership in DeFi and real-world assets. Keep an eye on the SEC’s October 16 ETF decision and the Alpenglow upgrade rollout—these will be key to seeing if Solana’s speed and efficiency can overcome regulatory challenges.


What are people saying about SOL?

The Solana (SOL) community is divided between strong optimism and cautious analysis. Here’s the latest:

  1. ETF optimism – Institutional filings are driving predictions of SOL reaching $500 or more.
  2. Technical tug-of-war – Some traders aim for $220, while others warn of a possible drop to $160.
  3. Network upgrades – The Firedancer validator’s claim of handling “a million transactions per second” is generating excitement.

Deep Dive

1. @johnmorganFL: “SOL to $500 by 2025” (bullish)

“Solana Price Prediction Is $300 by 2025, But Ozak AI’s Price Forecast Hints at 17000% Surge Within Months”
– @johnmorganFL (1.2M followers · 4.8M impressions · July 28, 2025)
View original post
What this means: This is an optimistic outlook for SOL, fueled by hopes of ETF approvals and AI-driven hype that are increasing retail investor interest. However, the claim of a 17,000% price jump lacks solid technical evidence and should be viewed skeptically.

2. @Neurashi: “$177–$183 breakout zone” (neutral)

“Smart money accumulation near $177.32–$177.54… Targets: $180.85 → $183.25”
– @Neurashi (89K followers · 312K impressions · May 22, 2025)
View original post
What this means: The short-term outlook is neutral. The $177–$183 price range matches recent consolidation patterns. If SOL falls below $176.8, it could trigger forced selling or liquidations.

3. CoinMarketCap Analysis: Institutions bet $23M on SOL (bullish)

“DeFi Development Corp purchased 153,225 SOL at $154.85… Solana ETF launch imminent”
– CoinMarketCap (July 21, 2025)
View article
What this means: This is a positive sign from institutional investors. Large purchases suggest confidence that SOL’s support level around $150–$152 will hold, especially after the Firedancer upgrade.

4. @DemauxSOL: “Send it to $1000” (bullish)

“Solana is everything. Bullish.”
– @DemauxSOL (18K followers · 92K impressions · August 29, 2025)
View original post
What this means: This reflects strong retail enthusiasm but lacks detailed analysis. For SOL to reach $1,000, it would need to more than quadruple from $229, which is only realistic if the ETF is approved and Bitcoin rises above $150,000.

5. Technical Analysis: “RSI divergence warns of pullback” (bearish)

“SOL faces resistance at $205… breakdown below $195 risks 20% drop to $160”
– @gemxbt_agent (August 24, 2025)
View post
What this means: This is a bearish signal. The declining trading volume and an RSI (Relative Strength Index) of 73.65 indicate SOL is overbought, suggesting some investors may take profits soon, potentially causing a price drop.

Conclusion

The outlook for Solana is mixed. Long-term sentiment leans bullish, but near-term caution prevails. Traders are closely watching the $160–$220 price range, the timing of ETF decisions expected by October 2025, and the stability of the Firedancer mainnet upgrade. Keep an eye on the SEC’s ETF ruling—a green light could support $500+ price targets, while delays might test SOL’s $150 support level.


What is the latest news about SOL?

Solana is gaining momentum in the altcoin market thanks to buzz around ETFs and growth in its ecosystem. Here are the key updates:

  1. Ecosystem Growth (October 4, 2025) – Solana leads altcoins with increased trading volume and more stablecoins flowing into its network.
  2. ETF Speculation (October 4, 2025) – More than 30 crypto ETF applications have been submitted to the SEC, including ones focused on Solana.
  3. Institutional Moves (September 22, 2025) – DeFi Development Corp has increased its Solana holdings to $103 million and expanded its stock buyback plans.

Deep Dive

1. Ecosystem Growth (October 4, 2025)

Overview:
Solana’s on-chain trading volume reached $125.6 billion over the past 30 days, mainly driven by decentralized exchanges (DEXs) and perpetual futures trading. The supply of stablecoins on Solana rose to $14.8 billion, up by $1.45 billion in just one week. Net inflows into the network bounced back to $44 billion after a dip earlier this year. The total value locked (TVL) in Solana’s network also grew steadily, adding $5.9 billion since March.

What this means:
The increase in liquidity and stablecoin use shows strong demand for Solana as a foundation for decentralized finance (DeFi) applications. However, Solana faces competition from Ethereum, which still holds 61% of the DeFi market, and the derivatives market remains volatile, which could affect Solana’s growth. (AMBCrypto)

2. ETF Speculation (October 4, 2025)

Overview:
There has been a surge in crypto ETF applications filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), including several focused on Solana, according to Nate Geraci from NovaDius Wealth Management. This follows the approval of a Solana staking ETF by REX Shares in June 2025 and growing interest from institutions like VisionSys AI, which plans to allocate $2 billion to Solana.

What this means:
If these ETFs get approved, it could boost Solana’s price similar to Bitcoin’s rally in 2024. However, delays by the SEC—like the one that affected Fidelity’s ETF application in July 2025—and unclear regulations about whether SOL is considered a security could slow down progress. (Binance Square)

3. Institutional Moves (September 22, 2025)

Overview:
DeFi Development Corp has increased its Solana holdings to 2 million tokens, worth about $430 million, and expanded its stock buyback program to $100 million. This follows Helius Medical’s purchase of 760,190 SOL tokens in September, part of a $500 million treasury plan supported by Pantera Capital.

What this means:
These large purchases by companies show confidence in Solana’s long-term potential. However, when big holders control a large portion of the supply, it can lead to price swings if they decide to sell off their tokens. (The Block)

Conclusion

Solana’s growing ecosystem and strong institutional interest make it a key player during this altcoin season. Still, delays in ETF approvals and regulatory questions could slow down its momentum. The SEC’s decision deadline on October 16 for Solana ETFs will be a critical moment—either confirming its current price around $229 or causing some investors to take profits near all-time highs.


What is expected in the development of SOL?

Solana’s roadmap is focused on making the network faster, more scalable, and attractive to big financial institutions. Here are the main milestones to watch:

  1. Alpenglow Consensus (Late 2025) – Aims to speed up transaction finality to just 150 milliseconds, making it suitable for fast trading.
  2. SIMD-0286 Upgrade (Q4 2025) – Increases block capacity by 66% to handle more transactions during busy times.
  3. Internet Capital Markets (2027) – Plans to support a global market for tokenized assets like real estate and stocks.
  4. ETF Approval Decision (October 2025) – The SEC’s decision on spot Solana ETFs could open the door for more institutional investment.

Deep Dive

1. Alpenglow Consensus (Late 2025)

What it is: This upgrade will cut the time it takes for a transaction to be finalized from about 12 seconds down to 150 milliseconds. It does this by simplifying how the network reaches agreement and allowing multiple leaders to process transactions at the same time.
Why it matters: Faster transaction finality makes Solana more appealing for high-speed trading and decentralized finance (DeFi) applications. However, there’s some risk if the network’s validators have trouble adjusting to the new system (Blockworks).

2. SIMD-0286 Block Expansion (Q4 2025)

What it is: After a previous upgrade increased block capacity by 20%, this next step will raise it by another 66%, allowing the network to handle up to 100 million Compute Units per block. This helps reduce failed transactions when demand spikes.
Why it matters: More capacity means better support for decentralized apps (dApps) and less congestion. Still, validators warn that if the network isn’t tested enough under stress, it could cause instability. Historically, Solana’s price tends to react positively to these kinds of upgrades (CoinMarketCap).

3. Internet Capital Markets Vision (2027)

What it is: Solana plans to build a programmable market infrastructure with features like:

4. Spot ETF Decision (October 2025)

What it is: The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will decide by October 10, 2025, whether to approve spot Solana ETFs. Analysts believe there’s about a 70% chance of approval.
Why it matters: If approved, these ETFs would let institutions earn yield through staking, potentially attracting large investments. For comparison, Bitcoin ETFs brought in $55 billion in 2024. If rejected, there might be short-term price swings, but Solana’s technical progress would likely continue (Cointribune).

Conclusion

Solana’s roadmap combines near-term upgrades to improve speed and capacity with long-term plans to support institutional finance. The upcoming ETF decision and the 2027 vision for Internet Capital Markets could significantly boost Solana’s role in global finance. The big question is whether Solana’s speed and regulatory progress will help it outpace competitors like Ethereum in attracting institutional investors.


What updates are there in the SOL code base?

Solana’s recent software updates focus on improving how many transactions it can handle and making it easier for developers to build on the platform.

  1. Block Capacity Boost (July 2025) – Increased the amount of work each block can process by 20%, raising the limit to 60 million compute units.
  2. RPC Modernization (December 2024) – Updated communication methods between apps and Solana to a newer standard, keeping compatibility with older versions.
  3. Consensus Innovations (Testing Phase) – New systems in development aim to speed up transaction confirmation to 150 milliseconds and handle over 1 million transactions per second.

Deep Dive

1. Block Capacity Boost (July 2025)

Overview: Solana increased the maximum compute units per block from 48 million to 60 million through the proposal SIMD-0256. This means each block can now process 20% more transactions.

This upgrade helps solve congestion problems experienced during a surge in activity in January 2025, when many users caused delays. After testing, validators agreed to the change, and the network’s transaction speed stabilized around 1,700 to 1,800 transactions per second.

What this means: This is good news for Solana users because it lowers the chance of failed transactions during busy times, like popular NFT releases or decentralized finance (DeFi) events, and helps keep fees down. Both traders and developers will experience smoother performance.

(Source)

2. RPC Modernization (December 2024)

Overview: The solana-web3.js toolkit updated its remote procedure call (RPC) methods, replacing older commands like getConfirmedBlock with newer ones such as getBlock, following Agave v2 standards.

This update simplifies how developers interact with Solana nodes, making their code cleaner and easier to maintain. Importantly, these changes still support older applications, so existing projects won’t break.

What this means: This update mainly benefits developers by improving backend efficiency. It doesn’t directly affect everyday users but shows Solana’s commitment to keeping its technology up to date.

(Source)

3. Consensus Innovations (Testing Phase)

Overview: Two major upgrades, Alpenglow and Firedancer, are being tested but aren’t live yet.

What this means: If successful, these upgrades could make Solana one of the fastest and most scalable blockchains. However, there’s a concern that higher hardware requirements might reduce the number of validators, impacting decentralization.

(Source)

Conclusion

Solana is working on both short-term improvements like the block capacity boost and long-term foundational upgrades with Alpenglow and Firedancer. While these changes promise faster and more efficient processing, maintaining a decentralized network of validators remains a challenge. The key question is whether Solana can grow its speed and capacity without sacrificing the distributed control that keeps the network secure and open.


Why did the price of SOL fall?

Solana (SOL) dropped 1.14% in the last 24 hours, underperforming the overall crypto market, which gained 0.95%. Here’s why:

  1. ETF inflows stalled – The first U.S. Solana ETF saw no new investments for two days, slowing down interest from big investors.
  2. Profit-taking by holders – Long-term investors sold some of their SOL near the recent high of $236 after a strong 19% weekly gain.
  3. Technical resistance hit – Solana couldn’t hold above the $232 level, triggering short-term sell signals.

Deep Dive

1. ETF Momentum Slows (Negative Impact)

Overview:
The REX-Osprey Solana ETF ($SSK) had zero net inflows on October 2 and 3 (U.Today), even though SOL’s price was rising. Since its launch on September 15, the ETF has attracted $343.6 million, but the recent pause suggests less interest from institutional investors.

What this means:
When ETFs attract new money, it usually supports price gains and helps absorb selling pressure. The lack of new investments here is different from what we see with Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, raising questions about Solana’s short-term appeal to big investors.

What to watch:
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will decide on VanEck’s Solana ETF application by October 16. Approval could bring fresh investment and boost momentum.

2. Profit-Taking by Long-Term Holders (Mixed Impact)

Overview:
Solana’s price jumped 19% last week, reaching $236 on October 3 — its highest since August 2025. Data shows that long-term holders started selling near this peak. French news site Cointribune reported a “7-month high in sell activity” (Cointribune).

What this means:
After a 55% gain over 90 days, it’s normal for investors to take profits. But if big holders keep selling and new buyers don’t step in, it could keep downward pressure on the price.

3. Technical Resistance at Key Price Level (Negative Impact)

Overview:
Solana failed to stay above the $232.49 pivot point, an important resistance level. The MACD indicator (+0.45) shows that bullish momentum is weakening, while the RSI (57.96) suggests there’s room for the price to drop further before becoming oversold.

What this means:
Traders often sell when prices fall below key levels. If Solana closes below its 50-day moving average ($222.34), it could fall further toward $214.84, which is a key Fibonacci retracement level.

Conclusion

Solana’s recent dip is due to profit-taking after a strong rally, slowing ETF interest, and hitting technical resistance. Despite this, SOL is still up 13% for the week. The big question now: Can Solana hold above $222 (its 50-day moving average) to keep its October gains, or will ETF uncertainty and selling by big holders push the price lower? Keep an eye on SEC ETF decisions and the $232.49 pivot point for clues.