What is expected in the development of AVAX?
Avalanche’s roadmap is focused on growing its network by scaling subnets, expanding real-world asset use, and increasing adoption by businesses.
- Subnet Scaling with Avalanche9000 (Q4 2025) – New validator rules make launching subnets much cheaper.
- Real-World Asset (RWA) Expansion with Visa and Grove (Q4 2025) – Over $250 million in tokenized assets and payment integrations.
- Octane Upgrade Phase 2 (2026) – Further cuts in transaction fees and smarter fee adjustments.
- Enterprise Subnets for FIFA and LG CNS (2026) – Custom blockchains for sports, gaming, and stablecoins.
Deep Dive
1. Subnet Scaling with Avalanche9000 (Q4 2025)
Overview:
The Avalanche9000 upgrade, completed in December 2024, introduced a new pay-as-you-go system for validators, replacing the old fixed 2,000 AVAX staking requirement. This change cuts subnet deployment costs by about 90%, making Avalanche’s Layer 1 blockchains cheaper to launch than some alternatives like Celestia rollups (Blockworks).
What this means:
This is good news for AVAX because lower costs encourage more projects—like gaming companies and businesses—to create their own subnets on Avalanche, increasing the network’s usefulness. However, Avalanche faces competition from Ethereum Layer 2 solutions that also offer scalability.
2. Real-World Asset Expansion with Visa and Grove (Q4 2025)
Overview:
Avalanche is bringing over $250 million in real-world assets onto its platform through Grove’s tokenization technology. Visa has also integrated Avalanche to support programmable stablecoin payments like PYUSD and EURC (July Snow Report).
What this means:
This signals growing interest from institutions, showing that Avalanche’s infrastructure can handle regulated financial assets. Still, regulatory challenges around tokenizing real-world assets could slow progress.
3. Octane Upgrade Phase 2 (2026)
Overview:
After a 43% fee reduction in July 2025, the next phase of the Octane upgrade aims to cut transaction fees on Avalanche’s C-Chain by another 60%. This will be done through asynchronous execution and dynamic fee adjustments voted on by validators (Messari Q2 Report).
What this means:
Lower fees make Avalanche more accessible to everyday users, which is positive. However, if adoption doesn’t grow fast enough, validators might earn less, which could be a concern.
4. Enterprise Subnets for FIFA and LG CNS (2026)
Overview:
Avalanche is working with big names like FIFA, which has a subnet with over 1.1 million users, and LG CNS, which may launch a Korean won stablecoin chain. These subnets use custom virtual machines tailored for sports NFTs and regulated payments (July Snow Report).
What this means:
This shows Avalanche’s growing appeal to large enterprises and adds variety to its ecosystem. But relying on big centralized partners like FIFA carries some risks if those partnerships change.
Conclusion
Avalanche’s roadmap focuses on making its network more scalable, useful for institutions, and cost-efficient. While technical improvements and big business deals strengthen its position, success depends on balancing decentralization with corporate partnerships. Can Avalanche keep growing its subnets while facing increasing competition from Ethereum Layer 2s?
What updates are there in the AVAX code base?
Avalanche’s software received major updates focused on lowering fees, improving scalability, and giving developers more flexibility.
- Octane Upgrade (July 2025) – Cut C-Chain transaction fees by 43% and introduced fees that adjust based on network activity.
- eERC Standard (July 2025) – Launched encrypted ERC-20 tokens that allow selective transparency for audits.
- Subnet Economics Overhaul (December 2024) – Changed validator staking from a fixed amount to a pay-as-you-go system, making subnet deployment much cheaper.
Deep Dive
1. Octane Upgrade (July 2025)
What happened: Avalanche rolled out a major update that made transactions cheaper and improved how validators work together. For example, sending simple transfers on the C-Chain now costs about $0.01 instead of $0.25.
This upgrade included three key changes:
- ACP-125: Lowered the minimum base fee from 25 nAVAX to just 0.1 nAVAX.
- ACP-176: Introduced dynamic fees that change depending on how busy the network is.
- ACP-77: Started preparing for asynchronous transaction processing, expected later in 2025.
Why it matters: Lower fees make it easier and cheaper for people to use Avalanche for everyday transactions and decentralized finance (DeFi). Dynamic fees help prevent spam during busy times, which keeps the network running smoothly. (Source)
2. eERC Standard (July 2025)
What happened: Avalanche’s AvaCloud platform introduced a new type of encrypted ERC-20 token. These tokens let projects keep sensitive information private while still allowing authorized parties, like auditors, to verify details when needed.
This standard works on top of the existing Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM), so it stays compatible with Ethereum-based tools and apps.
Why it matters: This update is mainly important for businesses and regulated industries that need privacy and compliance. It doesn’t directly affect everyday users but helps Avalanche attract enterprise projects. (Source)
3. Subnet Economics Overhaul (December 2024)
What happened: Avalanche changed how validators stake AVAX tokens to secure subnets. Instead of requiring a fixed 2,000 AVAX stake, validators now pay based on actual usage, reducing subnet deployment costs by about 83%.
Validators earn rewards based on how reliably they operate and how much cross-chain messaging they handle. This model encourages consistent participation. For example, the game MapleStory Universe used this to launch affordable gaming subnets.
Why it matters: Lower costs make it easier for developers to create new subnets, which increases the variety and usefulness of the Avalanche network. This is a positive step for AVAX’s growth and adoption. (Source)
Conclusion
Avalanche’s recent updates focus on making the network more scalable, affordable, and customizable for businesses. With transaction fees near zero and cheaper subnet deployment, Avalanche is positioning itself for broader use in real-world assets and institutional projects. These improvements could spark a new wave of innovation on the platform.
What are people saying about AVAX?
Avalanche (AVAX) is getting a lot of attention lately, with opinions swinging between excitement from big investors and mixed signals from technical analysis. Here’s the quick take:
- Big investors are stepping in – $1 billion treasury plans and ETF filings are driving positive outlooks.
- Network activity is growing – record-high transactions and total value locked (TVL) show the platform is gaining strength.
- Technical signals are mixed – traders are debating if the $36 price level will break through or cause some profit-taking.
In-Depth Look
1. Institutional Interest in Avalanche is Growing – Positive Signs
Edward from @Defi_Edward shared that Avalanche’s price jumped 10% even when the overall market was down. This is linked to $1 billion treasury plans and ETF filings by Bitwise, indicating Wall Street is paying attention. In August, Avalanche saw 2.22 million daily transactions, and the total value locked (TVL) doubled to $2.23 billion.
– Original post by @Defi_Edward
What this means: This is good news for Avalanche because big institutional investments could keep demand high. Plus, the network’s growth shows it’s being used more for decentralized finance (DeFi) applications.
2. Large Investors Are Accumulating AVAX – Another Positive Signal
User @im_BrokeDoomer points out that large investors, or “whales,” are buying up Avalanche, with AgriForce making a $500 million investment. The TVL is at its highest since 2022. After some liquidity adjustments, the price is aiming to break above $36.
– Original post by @im_BrokeDoomer
What this means: This suggests confidence among big players in Avalanche’s future. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is near 67.16, which is close to the overbought zone, so some caution is advised.
3. Technical Analysis Shows Some Warning Signs – Mixed Outlook
According to CoinMarketCap’s technical analysis, Avalanche failed to break above $30.50, leading to a 10% price drop. The next support level is $27.80, and if that breaks, the price could fall further to $25.40.
– Original post on CoinMarketCap
What this means: The technical picture is less clear. While fundamentals look strong, the price momentum is weakening, leading to debate over whether this is a buying opportunity or the start of a downward trend.
Conclusion
Overall, the outlook for Avalanche (AVAX) is cautiously optimistic. Institutional interest and network growth point to long-term potential, especially with upcoming upgrades and ETF possibilities. However, recent price drops show the market is sensitive to broader trends. Keep an eye on the $36 resistance level—if AVAX breaks above it decisively, it could head toward $55. If not, the price may stay in a range for a while longer.
What is the latest news about AVAX?
Avalanche is gaining attention from regulators and big investors, with technical signs pointing to a possible price breakout. Here’s the latest news:
- Bitwise Files AVAX ETF (September 25, 2025) – The first spot ETF proposal for Avalanche shows growing interest from institutional investors.
- FIFA Moves to Avalanche (August 28, 2025) – A major sports organization partners with Avalanche, boosting Web3 gaming activity.
- Whales Eye $28 Breakout (September 23, 2025) – Large investors are making big moves as technical indicators suggest a price jump.
In-Depth Look
1. Bitwise Files AVAX ETF (September 25, 2025)
What happened: Bitwise, a well-known asset manager, applied to the SEC for the first spot ETF based on Avalanche. This joins other pending ETF applications for cryptocurrencies like SOL and ADA under new, simplified SEC rules. The proposal highlights Avalanche’s strong network with $1.9 billion in total value locked (TVL), over 2 million daily active users, and growing use by institutions through real-world assets (RWAs).
Why it matters: Approval of this ETF could bring more regulated investment money into AVAX, similar to what happened with Bitcoin and Ethereum after their ETFs were approved. However, the SEC has been slow with other altcoin ETFs, so it might take 6 to 12 months for a decision. (Bitwise)
2. FIFA Moves to Avalanche (August 28, 2025)
What happened: FIFA switched its NFT platform to Avalanche, moving 4.7 million digital collectibles and planning to use Avalanche’s technology for tokenized tickets and fan experiences through a special network called a subnet. This follows Avalanche’s efforts to support gaming developers with its GameLoop accelerator and $30 million in incentives.
Why it matters: This partnership shows that big companies see value in Avalanche’s technology, which is a positive sign. However, it will take time to see how many users actually engage with these new features. The deal could increase activity on Avalanche’s subnets, which is important for revenue, but FIFA’s success in Web3 is still unproven. (CoinDesk)
3. Whales Eye $28 Breakout (September 23, 2025)
What happened: Large AVAX holders, known as whales, increased their transactions by 189% in one day, much higher than Ethereum’s 114%. This happened as AVAX tested the $27 resistance price level again. Analysts see a double-bottom pattern and other technical signals suggesting $28.50 could be the next target if Bitcoin remains stable.
Why it matters: This is cautiously optimistic because whales often buy before prices rise. However, AVAX is still trading below its 50-week moving average of $26.73. If the price closes above $28, it could trigger automated buying, but if it fails, the price might fall back to $23 support. (CoinMarketCap)
Conclusion
Avalanche’s ETF application and FIFA partnership highlight its focus on both institutional investors and everyday users. Meanwhile, whale activity shows traders are hopeful about key price levels. With the recent Octane Upgrade cutting C-Chain fees by 43%, Avalanche is working to keep its momentum in the fourth quarter, even as competitors like Solana and Polygon gain ground.
What could affect the price of AVAX?
Avalanche (AVAX) is showing strong technical momentum supported by key institutional developments.
- ETF Approvals (Positive) – Applications from Bitwise and Grayscale could open the door for more institutional investment.
- Subnet Adoption (Mixed) – The Octane upgrade improves scalability but faces competition from other blockchains.
- Macro Policy Changes (Positive) – Federal Reserve rate cuts and U.S.-UK regulatory cooperation create a more favorable environment.
Deep Dive
1. Spot ETF Momentum (Positive Impact)
Overview: Bitwise and Grayscale have applied to launch spot ETFs for AVAX, with decisions expected by early 2026. The SEC’s new rules, effective September 2025, make it easier to approve ETFs, increasing the chances that AVAX could join Bitcoin and Ethereum as regulated investment options.
What this means: If approved, AVAX could see increased demand similar to Bitcoin’s 21% price jump after its ETF approval in 2024. With a market cap of $12.2 billion, even a moderate boost from ETFs could significantly impact AVAX’s price. However, delays or denials might cause short-term price swings.
2. Subnet Growth After Octane Upgrade (Mixed Impact)
Overview: The July 2025 Octane upgrade cut transaction fees on Avalanche’s C-Chain by 98% and introduced flexible subnet economics. Daily transactions reached 35.8 million in August. Still, Avalanche faces competition from other blockchains like Solana and Ethereum Layer 2 solutions.
What this means: Lower fees and the migration of over 4 million NFTs by FIFA to Avalanche subnets could increase demand for AVAX. But the network needs steady growth in decentralized apps (dApps) to support its $2.2 billion total value locked (TVL). Without this growth, AVAX risks being labeled a “ghost chain” with low activity.
3. Macro Liquidity and Regulation (Positive Impact)
Overview: The Federal Reserve’s rate cut in September 2025, which coincided with a 1.7% rally in crypto, along with a U.S.-UK crypto task force planning a policy report by March 2026, suggest improved conditions for crypto investments.
What this means: Historically, lower interest rates have helped altcoins like AVAX, which rose 12% after the recent rate cut. Clearer regulations from U.S.-UK cooperation could encourage more institutional investors, though strict laws remain a potential risk.
Conclusion
Avalanche’s future depends on ETF approvals driving institutional interest and subnet activity keeping pace with token supply growth (457 million total tokens vs. 422 million circulating). Watch the $27 price level—closing above it on a weekly basis could signal a strong move toward $40 to $46.
Will Avalanche’s subnet growth keep up with the 25% token unlock expected in July 2026?
Why did the price of AVAX fall?
Avalanche (AVAX) dropped 9.82% in the last 24 hours, falling more than the overall crypto market, which declined by 3.98%. The main reasons for this include:
- Technical Breakdown – AVAX fell below a key support level at $23.50, triggering automatic sell orders.
- ETF Delays – The SEC postponed its decision on Grayscale’s AVAX spot ETF until July 2025, reducing interest from big investors.
- Market Sentiment – The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is at 32, indicating “Fear,” while Bitcoin’s market share is rising to 58.23%.
Deep Dive
1. Technical Sell-Off (Negative Impact)
Overview:
On September 25, AVAX dropped below the important $23.50 support level, breaking a pattern that had held for several weeks. The 7-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) fell to 33.03, showing the coin is oversold, and the MACD indicator confirmed downward momentum.
What this means:
Traders relying on technical analysis sold their AVAX holdings after this breakdown, increasing selling pressure. The next support level, based on Fibonacci retracement, is around $25.53. Other indicators, like the 30-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $28.14 compared to the current price of $29.01, suggest that bullish confidence is weakening.
What to watch:
A move back above $30.86 would be a positive sign, potentially indicating a trend reversal.
2. Regulatory Uncertainty (Mixed Impact)
Overview:
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) delayed its decision on Grayscale’s proposed AVAX spot ETF until July 15, 2025 (COINOTAG). Bitwise’s Avalanche ETF application is still under review.
What this means:
ETF approval could bring more institutional investors into AVAX, but delays add uncertainty. Trading volume for AVAX increased by 19.84% to $1.7 billion in 24 hours, with more selling than buying, indicating cautious investor behavior.
3. Macro Headwinds (Negative Impact)
Overview:
The broader crypto market fell by 3.98%, while Bitcoin’s dominance rose to 58.23%, the highest since June 2025. The Altcoin Season Index dropped 10.39% over the week, showing that investors are shifting funds from altcoins like AVAX to Bitcoin.
What this means:
AVAX’s larger price swings make it more sensitive to overall market trends. Open interest in crypto derivatives increased by 8.9% to $1.12 trillion, but leveraged long positions in AVAX suffered liquidations totaling $952,000, according to CoinGlass data.
Conclusion
AVAX’s recent decline is due to a mix of technical selling, regulatory delays, and a market environment that favors Bitcoin over altcoins. Although the coin is oversold and could bounce back, a sustained recovery will likely depend on clearer ETF approval or renewed interest in altcoins.
Key level to watch: Can AVAX maintain support at the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around $25.32?