What could affect the price of AVAX?
Avalanche is navigating a mix of positive upgrades and challenges from ETF uncertainty and shifting altcoin market trends.
- ETF Approval Timeline – Grayscale and Bitwise have filed for Avalanche ETFs, but the SEC’s delayed decision creates uncertainty (Mixed Impact)
- Octane Upgrade Adoption – Lower transaction fees and new subnet features are attracting more businesses (Bullish)
- Altcoin Liquidity Shift – Rising Bitcoin dominance limits Avalanche’s growth potential (Bearish)
Deep Dive
1. ETF Approval Timeline (Mixed Impact)
Overview: In August and September 2025, Grayscale and Bitwise applied to launch spot ETFs for Avalanche (AVAX). However, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has postponed its decision until July 15, 2026, adding regulatory uncertainty. If approved, these ETFs could bring significant institutional investment, similar to the $8.78 billion inflow seen with Bitcoin ETFs in Q3 2025. But since the SEC tends to be cautious about approving ETFs for cryptocurrencies other than Bitcoin and Ethereum, the chances of approval are less than 50% (Cointelegraph).
What this means: Approval could boost AVAX’s price by 30–50%, similar to Ethereum’s 66% jump after its ETF approval in Q3 2025. On the other hand, rejection might push the price down to test support around $22.
2. Octane Upgrade Adoption (Bullish Impact)
Overview: Avalanche’s Octane Upgrade, launched in July 2025, dramatically reduced transaction fees on its C-Chain by 96%, bringing costs down to about $0.01 per transaction. It also introduced dynamic subnet economics, allowing more flexible and scalable blockchain networks. Daily transactions reached 1.5 million in June 2025, a 275% increase compared to the previous year. Notably, FIFA’s 2026 World Cup NFT platform plans to launch on an Avalanche subnet, highlighting growing enterprise interest (CoinMarketCap).
What this means: Lower fees and real-world use cases, like Visa’s settlement tests, could increase total value locked (TVL) on Avalanche by 20–30% by the end of 2025, potentially pushing AVAX’s price toward $35.
3. Altcoin Liquidity Shift (Bearish Impact)
Overview: Bitcoin’s market dominance rose to 58.4% in October 2025, while the Altcoin Season Index dropped 27% monthly to 48 out of 100. Avalanche’s price correlation with Bitcoin strengthened to 0.89 over 30 days, meaning AVAX’s price is closely tied to Bitcoin’s movements. If Bitcoin falls below $100,000, AVAX could face significant sell-offs (CMC Fear & Greed).
What this means: If investors shift capital back to Bitcoin, AVAX may underperform, with potential downside risk to around $24, near its 200-day moving average, especially if Bitcoin’s dominance exceeds 60%.
Conclusion
Avalanche’s future depends on the outcome of ETF approvals and how widely its subnet technology is adopted, balancing against broader market pressures. While the Octane Upgrade and FIFA’s Web3 initiatives provide strong fundamentals, investors should watch SEC decisions and Bitcoin’s key support levels around $105,000. The key question remains: Can growing institutional interest in Avalanche’s subnets offset the liquidity moving back to Bitcoin?
What are people saying about AVAX?
Talk around Avalanche (AVAX) swings between technical price moves and real-world adoption stories. Here’s what’s trending right now:
- Big Institutional Interest – A $240 billion real estate tokenization project is driving positive buzz
- ETF Approval Delays – The SEC’s July 15 decision keeps traders cautious
- Chart Debates – Analysts are split between bullish “double bottom” and bearish “descending triangle” patterns
- Real-World Asset (RWA) Race – Partnerships like FIFA’s subnet and BlackRock’s integration show growing enterprise use
- Short-Term Bearish Pressure – A failed breakout above $25.60 raises risk of price drops in the near term
Deep Dive
1. @YahooFinance: $240B Real Estate Project Boosts AVAX
"Bergen County’s blockchain deed initiative uses AVAX as the settlement currency for over 370,000 properties"
– Yahoo Finance (15M followers · 2.1M impressions · May 30, 2025)
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What this means: This is a big positive for AVAX. Institutional adoption of real-world assets (like property) can create steady demand. The project covers about 7% of New Jersey’s housing market, showing serious real-world use.
2. @CryptoTradingBot: $25.60 Resistance Holds, Bearish Signal
“AVAX hit resistance at $25.50 and pulled back – next support is $23.80 with a 4.72% chance of liquidation”
– @CryptoTradingBot (89K followers · 412K impressions · Aug 18, 2025)
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What this means: Short-term bearish signs as traders with leveraged positions near resistance may be forced to sell, increasing downside risk.
3. @Cointribune: FIFA Subnet Adoption Mixed
“A custom blockchain layer for 2026 World Cup NFTs could bring millions of users, but active addresses dropped 18.58% in May”
– Cointribune (320K followers · 1.2M impressions · Aug 11, 2025)
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What this means: Neutral to slightly positive. The FIFA partnership adds long-term value, but recent drops in network activity suggest short-term growth may be limited.
4. @AMBCrypto: Technical Battle: Double Bottom vs Wedge
“AVAX is testing support at $22.80 with 362,000 wallets involved – will it break out to $30 or fall to $19.50?”
– AMBCrypto (610K followers · 3.4M impressions · May 30, 2025)
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What this means: Mixed signals from charts. The 50-day moving average at $21.83 offers support, but there’s risk of a “death cross” (a bearish signal) with the 200-day average at $29.40.
5. @CryptoPulse: Bearish Setup Emerging
“AVAX broke below $24.50 support – next target is $23.60 with a 6.24% downside risk”
– @CryptoPulse_CRU (42K followers · 287K impressions · Aug 17, 2025)
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What this means: Bearish outlook as open interest in derivatives jumped nearly 30% to $1.18 billion, increasing the chance of a price squeeze if $23.60 support fails.
Conclusion
The outlook for Avalanche (AVAX) is mixed. On one hand, big institutional moves like the $240 billion real estate tokenization and FIFA partnership show growing real-world use. On the other hand, technical resistance around $25.50 and declining retail activity suggest caution in the short term.
Keep an eye on the $25.50 price level: closing above it on a weekly basis could confirm bullish momentum aiming for $30–$35, while failure to hold could confirm bearish patterns.
Also watch the broader market: altcoin season’s current index reading is 41/100, and Bitcoin dominance stands at 58.43%, both of which can influence AVAX’s direction.
What is the latest news about AVAX?
Avalanche is gaining momentum thanks to growing interest from big investors and expanding its ecosystem, even as the altcoin market remains volatile. Here are the key updates:
- Bitwise Files for AVAX Spot ETF (October 9, 2025) – Bitwise joins Grayscale and VanEck in asking the SEC to approve an AVAX ETF, showing strong institutional demand.
- S&P Launches Multi-Asset Crypto Index (October 9, 2025) – Avalanche (AVAX) is part of a new crypto index designed to encourage more diverse ETF investments beyond just Bitcoin and Ethereum.
- StableFlow Bridge Launches on Avalanche (October 9, 2025) – A new tool that allows cheap and easy stablecoin swaps across nine blockchains, improving Avalanche’s decentralized finance (DeFi) capabilities.
Deep Dive
1. Bitwise Files for AVAX Spot ETF (October 9, 2025)
Overview:
Bitwise has joined other big players like Grayscale and VanEck in filing for a spot ETF for Avalanche (AVAX). This reflects growing interest from institutional investors who want exposure to altcoins. In the third quarter of 2025, ETFs focused on Ethereum attracted more money ($9.59 billion) than those focused on Bitcoin ($8.78 billion) for the first time, showing a shift toward altcoins. Bitwise’s CEO, Hunter Horsley, noted that institutions are now evaluating Avalanche’s fundamentals—like its subnet technology and real-world asset (RWA) use cases—similar to how they analyze stocks.
What this means:
This is good news for AVAX because ETF approval would make it easier for traditional investors to buy AVAX through regulated channels. However, the SEC has been slow to approve altcoin ETFs in the past (for coins like Solana and Chainlink), and a recent U.S. government shutdown has paused these reviews for now. (CoinDesk)
2. S&P Launches Multi-Asset Crypto Index (October 9, 2025)
Overview:
S&P Global introduced the Digital Markets 50 Index, which combines 15 cryptocurrencies—including Avalanche—with 35 stocks linked to the crypto industry. This index aims to create a more standardized way to track crypto investments. Current ETFs like Grayscale’s GDLC are heavily weighted toward Bitcoin and Ethereum (about 85%), but this new index could encourage funds to invest more in smaller coins like AVAX, which saw a 66.9% price increase in Q3.
What this means:
This development is somewhat positive for AVAX. Being part of a major index increases its visibility, but Bitcoin and Ethereum still dominate the market with a combined 70% share. The impact depends on whether big investors adopt this new index or stick with simpler, more familiar options. (Investopedia)
3. StableFlow Bridge Launches on Avalanche (October 9, 2025)
Overview:
StableFlow, developed by DapDap and powered by NEAR Intents technology, is a new bridge that allows users to swap stablecoins (cryptocurrencies pegged to stable assets like the US dollar) across nine different blockchains with very low fees (0.01%). Avalanche is one of the supported chains, which strengthens its position in the decentralized finance (DeFi) space. NEAR Intents has already processed $1.84 billion in swaps this year, with USDT making up 58% of the stablecoin volume.
What this means:
This is a positive sign for Avalanche’s DeFi ecosystem. Low-cost, efficient bridges like StableFlow can attract users who find Ethereum’s fees too high. Avalanche’s C-Chain fees are around $0.01 after a recent upgrade, making it competitive for high-volume transactions. However, competition from other bridge technologies like LayerZero remains strong. (Yahoo Finance)
Conclusion
Avalanche is making significant strides toward becoming a blockchain favored by institutional investors, thanks to ETF filings, inclusion in a major crypto index, and improved infrastructure. While challenges like overall market conditions and Bitcoin’s dominance (58.4%) persist, Avalanche’s unique features—such as flexible subnets and a focus on real-world assets—position it well for continued growth. The big question is whether regulatory delays on altcoin ETFs will ease after the government shutdown, or if Avalanche’s success will rely more on organic growth within its ecosystem.
What is expected in the development of AVAX?
Avalanche’s roadmap is focused on growing its use by big institutions, expanding gaming platforms, and improving its technology.
- Institutional Treasury Expansion (October 2025) – Completing a $1 billion plan to support companies that manage AVAX assets.
- FIFA Subnet Scaling (2026) – Aiming for widespread use through sports-related NFTs and ticketing.
- Async Execution Upgrade (2026) – Reducing transaction fees and speeding up processing even more.
Deep Dive
1. Institutional Treasury Expansion (October 2025)
Overview: The Avalanche Foundation is set to finalize a second $500 million treasury deal through a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) backed by Dragonfly Capital (Cointribune). This follows a Nasdaq-listed company, AVAX One, which raised $550 million to buy and stake AVAX tokens, similar to how some companies manage Bitcoin holdings.
What this means: This is positive news for AVAX because steady, planned buying by institutions can reduce selling pressure and boost confidence in the coin. However, there are risks like regulatory delays or market ups and downs that could affect how quickly the funds are used.
2. FIFA Subnet Scaling (2026)
Overview: Avalanche’s partnership with FIFA involves creating a dedicated blockchain network (subnet) to handle millions of users through sports-related digital tickets and collectibles. This builds on the success of the MapleStory Universe game, which saw 5.8 million transactions per week in June 2025 (CoinMarketCap).
What this means: This could significantly grow Avalanche’s user base as popular gaming and sports brands attract mainstream audiences. Still, there are risks with token value fluctuations, as seen with NXPC tokens dropping 64% after launch.
3. Async Execution Upgrade (2026)
Overview: After the Octane upgrade in 2025, which cut fees by 43%, Avalanche plans to introduce asynchronous execution. This means transactions will be processed more efficiently, lowering costs and speeding up confirmation times (Blockworks).
What this means: This upgrade is likely to encourage more developers to build on Avalanche because lower fees make it more attractive. However, technical challenges or competition from other blockchains like Solana’s Firedancer could impact progress.
Conclusion
Avalanche is focusing on attracting institutional investors, expanding its gaming ecosystem, and making transactions cheaper and faster. Partnerships with organizations like FIFA and treasury firms could increase demand for AVAX, but success depends on smooth technical implementation and favorable market conditions. A key question remains: will Avalanche’s subnets grow mainly for specific uses, or will they become widely interoperable across different applications?
What updates are there in the AVAX code base?
Avalanche has rolled out major updates focused on making the network faster, cheaper, and more appealing to businesses.
- Octane Upgrade (July 2025) – Cut transaction fees on the C-Chain by 98% and introduced new ways to reward validators.
- eERC Token Standard (July 2025) – Added encrypted tokens that keep balances private but still allow audits.
- Avalanche9000 Upgrade (Dec 2024) – Made it much cheaper to create custom subnets with a pay-as-you-go staking model.
Deep Dive
1. Octane Upgrade (July 2025)
What happened: Avalanche’s network underwent a major update that lowered transaction fees on the C-Chain to about one cent per transfer. It also changed how validators (the network’s security providers) earn rewards, tying them to actual network use instead of a fixed stake.
Key technical changes included replacing the old fixed 2,000 AVAX staking requirement with fees based on usage, lowering base fees, and introducing dynamic fee calculations. Validators now earn rewards based on cross-chain message traffic.
Why it matters: Lower fees make Avalanche more attractive for decentralized finance (DeFi) projects and businesses. Plus, the new flexible subnet pricing helps developers plan costs better, supporting long-term growth. (Source)
2. eERC Token Standard (July 2025)
What happened: Avalanche introduced eERC tokens on AvaCloud, which are encrypted versions of the popular ERC-20 tokens. These tokens keep user balances private but still allow authorized parties, like regulators, to audit transactions.
This is made possible through advanced cryptography called zero-knowledge proofs, which let you prove something is true without revealing all the details. Developers were given grants to build using this new standard.
Why it matters: This update is especially useful for institutions that need privacy and regulatory compliance. While it might be complex for everyday users, it positions Avalanche as a leader in secure, compliant digital assets. (Source)
3. Avalanche9000 Upgrade (Dec 2024)
What happened: The network switched from a fixed staking cost for validators to a pay-as-you-go model, cutting the cost to launch custom subnets by about 83%.
Instead of needing a large upfront stake (around $30,000), teams can now start a subnet for as little as $5,000. This makes Avalanche subnets more affordable than some alternatives like Celestia rollups.
Why it matters: Lower costs make it easier for developers and businesses to build on Avalanche, growing its ecosystem and increasing network activity, which benefits AVAX holders. (Source)
Conclusion
Avalanche’s recent upgrades focus on making the network scalable, affordable, and business-friendly—important for bringing real-world assets onto the blockchain. Everyday users get cheaper transactions, while enterprises benefit from flexible subnets and privacy tools. With more improvements planned for 2026, like faster execution and better cross-chain communication, Avalanche is well-positioned to keep attracting developers and projects.