What could affect the price of AVAX?

Avalanche’s price is balancing between strong interest from big investors and sudden drops caused by risky trading.

1. ETF Approvals (Positive) – Bitwise’s Avalanche ETF is now listed on DTCC, and Grayscale is waiting for SEC approval.
2. Subnet Adoption (Mixed) – The Octane Upgrade cut fees by 96%, but interest in alternative coins is slow.
3. Whale Buying (Positive) – Large investors bought $22.9 million after a price crash, while smaller investors are selling off.

Deep Dive

1. ETF Momentum & Regulatory Review (Positive)

Overview: Bitwise’s Avalanche ETF (BAVA) is officially listed on the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC) (Bitwise). Meanwhile, Grayscale has filed paperwork with the SEC for its own AVAX ETF, which is still under review. If approved, these ETFs could bring in large amounts of money from institutional investors, similar to what happened with Bitcoin ETFs. Coinbase would handle the custody for both funds.
What this means: ETFs make it easier and safer for big investors to buy Avalanche, which usually helps push prices up. However, if the SEC delays or denies approval, this momentum could slow down.

2. Subnet Economics & Adoption (Mixed Impact)

Overview: Avalanche’s recent Octane Upgrade (July 2025) drastically lowered transaction fees on its C-Chain to about one cent and introduced new flexible staking options through ACP-77. Big companies like FIFA and Toyota are testing Avalanche’s subnet technology, showing growing business interest. However, the overall market interest in alternative cryptocurrencies remains low, with the Altcoin Season Index at 41 out of 100 (CMC).
What this means: Lower fees and more flexible technology attract developers and businesses, as seen by 1.5 million daily transactions in June. But Bitcoin’s strong market dominance (nearly 59%) limits how much money moves into other coins like Avalanche.

3. Leverage Resets vs. Whale Buying (Positive)

Overview: On October 12, Avalanche’s price dropped 27%, causing $222 million in leveraged long positions to be liquidated. However, the price quickly bounced back by 143% within five minutes as large investors (whales) bought $22.9 million worth of AVAX (AMBCrypto). Meanwhile, smaller retail investors reduced their activity by 74% in May.
What this means: These sudden price drops clear out risky trades and create buying opportunities for big investors. Avalanche One recently raised $550 million, showing strong institutional interest. But with fewer smaller investors participating, price rallies might not be very strong or long-lasting.

Conclusion

Avalanche’s future depends largely on whether ETF approvals can bring in more institutional money amid a challenging market environment dominated by Bitcoin and low interest in altcoins. The $22 price level, supported by growing subnet use and staking rewards of about 6.7% APY, provides a solid foundation. However, reaching $30 again will likely require positive ETF news. Will the SEC approve altcoin ETFs before 2026?

What are people saying about AVAX?

Avalanche (AVAX) is seeing mixed signals, with some investors hopeful for a breakout while others watch for support levels to hold. Interest in ETFs (exchange-traded funds) is adding excitement. Here’s what’s happening now:

1. Big investors (“whales”) are aiming for AVAX prices above $30 as it holds steady around $22.
2. The Bitwise Avalanche ETF being listed on the DTCC is boosting confidence among institutional investors.
3. Some traders warn that if AVAX falls below $24.50, it could face more downward pressure.

Deep Dive

1. Bitwise ETF and Real-World Assets Boost Optimism

@ManLyNFT points out that Bitwise has filed for an Avalanche ETF, and the volume of real-world assets (RWA) linked to AVAX has jumped 58%. This suggests growing interest from big financial players. The ETF approval decision is expected by July 15, 2025. Plus, the Bitwise ETF’s recent listing on the DTCC (October 11, 2025) adds credibility, making AVAX more attractive to institutional investors.

2. Potential for a Major Price Move if Trendline Breaks

@CryptooELITES highlights a technical pattern called a symmetrical triangle that has been forming over three years. If AVAX breaks above a key resistance level around $23, it could trigger a big rally, with a target price near $150. However, the current price ($22.52) is still below this resistance, so this is a hopeful but uncertain scenario. This analysis aligns with Grayscale’s technical outlook (July 14, 2025).

3. Warning Signs of Downside Risk at $24.50

A community trader notes that AVAX is facing selling pressure below $25.60. If it falls below $24.50, it might drop further to around $23.80. Trading volume over the past 24 hours ($1.67 billion) is lower than the peak in July ($2.8 billion), indicating weaker momentum (October 12, 2025). The 7-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is neutral at 45.66, meaning the price could move either way in the short term.

Conclusion

The outlook for Avalanche (AVAX) is mixed right now. On one hand, institutional interest is growing thanks to ETF developments and a $500 million AVAX One fund. On the other hand, technical indicators show some resistance and potential risks. The $22 support level held firm during a recent 27% price drop in October (October 12, 2025). Watch the $25 resistance level closely—if AVAX breaks above it and holds, that could confirm a bullish trend. Also, keep an eye on the SEC’s decision on the Bitwise ETF by July 15 and Avalanche’s network activity, which processed 35.8 million transactions in August (September 5, 2025).

What is the latest news about AVAX?

Avalanche is navigating a turbulent market with progress on ETFs, moves by big investors, and sharp price swings. Here are the key updates:

1. Bitwise Avalanche ETF Listed on DTCC (October 11, 2025) – A major step toward U.S. regulatory approval.
2. 27% Price Drop, $222M Liquidated (October 12, 2025) – A big sell-off followed by a strong 143% bounce back.
3. Ethereum Foundation Supports Legal Fund Using AVAX (October 10, 2025) – Avalanche infrastructure helps fund a privacy rights case.

In-Depth Look

1. Bitwise Avalanche ETF Listed on DTCC (October 11, 2025)

What happened:
Bitwise’s Avalanche ETF (ticker: BAVA) was added to the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC), a key step toward getting approval from U.S. regulators. This follows earlier ETF filings by VanEck in March 2025 and Grayscale’s request in September 2025 to convert its Avalanche Trust into an ETF.

Why it matters:
ETF approval would likely increase demand for AVAX from big investors, similar to what happened with Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. However, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has delayed its decision until July 2026, so there’s still some uncertainty. The DTCC listing shows that important preparations are underway, especially as Avalanche expands its use in real-world assets (RWA). (Binance)

2. 27% Price Drop, $222M Liquidated (October 12, 2025)

What happened:
AVAX’s price dropped 27% to $10 during a wider market sell-off, causing $222 million in leveraged positions to be liquidated—mostly long bets (93%). But the price quickly bounced back 143% to $22, helped by strong buying and $827 million in decentralized exchange (DEX) trading volume, the highest in two weeks.

Why it matters:
The sharp drop was a forced sell-off clearing out risky bets. The quick recovery shows strong buying interest around $20-$22. Data from the blockchain shows that experienced investors (“smart money”) bought $6 million worth of AVAX before the crash, suggesting they saw value at lower prices. Traders are now watching to see if the price can reach $30 if demand continues. (AMBCrypto)

3. Ethereum Foundation Supports Legal Fund Using AVAX (October 10, 2025)

What happened:
The Ethereum Foundation and Keyring Network created a legal defense fund for developers of Tornado Cash, a privacy tool, using Avalanche-based zkVerified vaults to collect donations. The fund raised $22,109.52 in USDC by October 10.

Why it matters:
This doesn’t directly affect AVAX’s price but highlights Avalanche’s role in supporting privacy-focused blockchain projects. Avalanche’s ability to work across different blockchains and its low transaction fees make it a practical choice for projects like this. However, privacy tools are under regulatory scrutiny, which could pose risks. (Crypto Times)

Conclusion

Avalanche is balancing growing interest from big investors, volatile price swings, and involvement in important blockchain causes. While the recent sell-off shook out weaker holders, strong buying and expanding use cases show resilience. The big question remains: will the SEC’s delayed ETF decision slow down institutional interest, or can Avalanche’s partnerships in real-world assets keep the momentum going?

What is expected in the development of AVAX?

Avalanche is making significant progress with these key updates:

1. Treasury Companies Launching (October 2025) – Two U.S.-based companies will buy $1 billion worth of AVAX tokens to encourage institutional use.
2. Funtico Gaming Partnership (September 2025) – Avalanche partners with an indie game accelerator offering a $30,000 prize pool and special blockchain tools for game economies.
3. Blueberry Upgrade (Q4 2025) – New customizable subnets for businesses and improved network efficiency for validators.

In-Depth Look

1. Treasury Companies Launching (October 2025)

What’s happening: The Avalanche Foundation plans to set up two treasury companies in the U.S. by October 2025. These companies will buy $1 billion worth of AVAX tokens at discounted prices (source). They will hold these tokens long-term, similar to how some companies hold Bitcoin as part of their corporate treasury.

Why it matters: This move is positive for AVAX because it means more tokens will be held by institutions, which could reduce the number of tokens available on the market and help stabilize prices. However, any delays in getting regulatory approval or distributing tokens could slow down this progress.

2. Funtico Gaming Partnership (September 2025)

What’s happening: Avalanche has chosen Funtico as its main platform for indie game development. They launched GameLoop Season 1 on September 8, 2025, which includes a $30,000 prize pool and blockchain tools called subnets to help manage in-game economies (source).

Why it matters: This is somewhat positive because gaming subnets could increase the number of transactions and attract more users to Avalanche. The success of this depends on how many game developers and players adopt these blockchain features.

3. Blueberry Upgrade (Q4 2025)

What’s happening: The Blueberry Upgrade will allow businesses to create custom subnets tailored to their needs and improve how validators (the network’s transaction verifiers) sync and manage fees (source).

Why it matters: This is a strong positive because custom subnets let companies build blockchain solutions specific to their use cases—like FIFA’s NFT subnet. It also helps Avalanche handle more users and transactions efficiently. While there are technical challenges, a successful upgrade could make AVAX a top choice for enterprise blockchain solutions.

Conclusion

Avalanche’s upcoming plans focus on attracting institutional investors, growing its gaming ecosystem, and improving technical performance. These efforts could boost AVAX’s usefulness and market standing. However, it’s important to watch for regulatory challenges and how quickly developers adopt new subnets. One key question remains: How will Avalanche’s expanding subnet network influence AVAX’s role in connecting different blockchains?

What updates are there in the AVAX code base?

Avalanche made big improvements to its technology in the third quarter of 2025 to make the network faster, cheaper, and more scalable.

1. Octane Upgrade (July 2025) – Cut transaction fees by 96% and introduced smart fee adjustments based on network demand.
2. eERC Standard Launch (July 2025) – Launched encrypted ERC-20 tokens to enhance privacy for decentralized finance (DeFi) applications.
3. Validator Economics Overhaul (December 2024) – Changed how validators pay fees, making it more affordable to create custom sub-networks.

Deep Dive

1. Octane Upgrade (July 2025)

Overview:
This major update lowered the cost to send transactions on Avalanche’s C-Chain from about $0.25 to just $0.01. It also introduced a system that adjusts fees dynamically depending on how busy the network is.

Key technical changes:

• ACP-125: The minimum base fee dropped dramatically from 25 nAVAX to 0.1 nAVAX.
• ACP-176: New algorithms now change gas fees in real time based on network congestion.
• The network is being prepared to handle transactions asynchronously, which should further improve speed and efficiency by the end of 2025.

What this means:
Lower and more predictable fees make Avalanche more attractive for small transactions and high-frequency trading in DeFi. This can bring in more developers and businesses to build on AVAX. (Source)

2. eERC Standard (July 2025)

Overview:
Avalanche introduced the eERC standard through AvaCloud, which allows token creators to encrypt balances and transfers. This means transactions can stay private but still be audited securely using zero-knowledge proofs.

What this means:
This upgrade offers more privacy options, especially useful for institutions handling sensitive data like payroll. However, regulators may watch closely to prevent misuse. Developers now have built-in tools to create privacy-focused applications that comply with regulations.

3. Validator Economics Overhaul (December 2024)

Overview:
Previously, validators had to stake a fixed 2,000 AVAX to operate. With ACP-77, fees are now based on actual usage, reducing the cost to launch subnets by 83%.

What this means:
This change lowers the entry barrier for creating custom blockchains on Avalanche, encouraging more projects like FIFA’s subnet. Validators earn rewards based on how much cross-chain messaging they handle, motivating them to support the network actively.

Conclusion

Avalanche’s 2025 upgrades focus on making the platform scalable for businesses (Octane), flexible in privacy (eERC), and easier to access for developers (Validator Economics). With fees now similar to Solana’s and developer activity growing 22% month-over-month, AVAX is positioning itself as a top choice for regulated real-world assets (RWAs) and gaming subnets. Keep an eye on the upcoming asynchronous transaction execution in Q4 for even better performance.

Why did the price of AVAX go up?

Avalanche (AVAX) increased by 1.71% in the last 24 hours, outperforming the overall crypto market, which gained 1.21%. This growth comes as the market recovers following easing concerns about tariffs after comments from former President Trump, with altcoins like AVAX leading the way.

1. Market-Wide Recovery (Positive)
   Crypto markets bounced back after Trump’s “Don’t worry about China” statement helped calm fears about tariffs. This reduced forced sell-offs (liquidations) from $19 billion to $772 million.

2. Leverage Reset & Increased Buying (Mixed)
   AVAX jumped 143%, climbing from $10 to $22 after $222 million in long positions were liquidated. Trading volume on decentralized exchanges (DEX) also surged to $827 million, the highest in two weeks.

3. ETF Progress (Positive)
   Bitwise’s Avalanche ETF (BAVA) was listed on the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC), showing growing institutional interest despite delays in other crypto ETFs.

Deep Dive

1. Shift in Market Sentiment (Positive Impact)

Overview:
Markets steadied after Trump reassured investors about tariffs on China (Yahoo Finance), sparking a crypto market rebound. The total market value rose 10% from recent lows to $3.85 trillion, with altcoins like AVAX gaining about 7%.

What this means:
Less uncertainty about trade policies eased selling pressure. AVAX’s trading volume jumped 66% to $1.7 billion, indicating renewed investor confidence. However, Bitcoin still dominates the market at nearly 59%, which limits how much altcoins can rise.

What to watch:
Updates on tariffs and decisions by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) regarding crypto ETFs.

2. Technical Recovery After Big Sell-Off (Mixed Impact)

Overview:
AVAX dropped 27% on October 10–11, causing $222 million in long position liquidations. It then rebounded sharply, rising 143% from $10 to $22 as buyers stepped in to absorb the selling pressure (AMBCrypto).

What this means:
This rebound is a typical “leverage flush,” where weaker traders are forced out, allowing stronger investors to buy at lower prices. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is neutral at 34.04, suggesting there’s room for prices to go higher if AVAX can break above $23.27 (a key technical level).

What to watch:
If AVAX closes above $23.27, it could aim for $26.26. If it fails, it might retest support around $16.05.

3. Institutional Developments (Positive Impact)

Overview:
Bitwise’s Avalanche ETF was added to DTCC’s list (Binance News), signaling growing institutional readiness. Additionally, AgriFORCE’s $550 million shift to an AVAX-focused treasury firm suggests increased accumulation.

What this means:
ETF progress points to long-term institutional interest. Treasury firms like these could reduce the number of AVAX coins available on the market—currently, 422 million AVAX (92% of total supply) are in circulation.

What to watch:
Approval progress for U.S.-based AVAX ETFs and adoption rates of staking, which currently offers about a 6.7% yield.

Conclusion

AVAX’s recent gains are driven by easing trade tensions, a technical rebound after heavy selling, and growing institutional support. While short-term price swings remain, the clearing of over-leveraged positions and ETF developments provide a stronger foundation. Key question: Can AVAX maintain support at $22 and break resistance at $23.27 within the next 48 hours?