Why did the price of AVAX fall?

Avalanche (AVAX) dropped 5.54% in the last 24 hours, underperforming the overall crypto market, which fell 2.43%. This decline matches a general cautious mood across the sector and key technical breakdowns.

1. Market Downturn – Concerns about trade tensions and ETF withdrawals hit altcoins hard.
2. Technical Breakdown – Important price support levels were broken, signaling more downside.
3. Institutional Withdrawals – Altcoin ETFs, including those linked to AVAX, saw weak demand.

Deep Dive

1. Market-Wide Risk Aversion (Negative Impact)

Overview:
On October 17, crypto markets dropped sharply due to renewed trade tensions between the U.S. and China and $609 million in ETF withdrawals (Bitcoin ETFs lost $506 million, Ethereum ETFs lost $103 million). The Crypto Fear & Greed Index fell to 28/100, indicating “Extreme Fear” among investors.

What this means:
As a high-risk altcoin, AVAX is more affected by broad market selloffs. The total crypto market value fell 2.7%, from $3.67 trillion to $3.58 trillion. Altcoins like AVAX experienced bigger losses because they tend to have less liquidity and higher price swings.

What to watch:

• Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision on October 28–29 (markets expect a rate cut).
• U.S.-China trade negotiations (any easing could trigger a market rebound).

2. Technical Weakness (Negative Impact)

Overview:
AVAX fell below key support levels:

• Price: $20.60, below the 30-day simple moving average (SMA) of $28.91.
• Relative Strength Index (RSI): 32.62 (14-day), close to oversold but no clear sign of reversal yet.
• MACD: -2.07, showing a bearish crossover.

What this means:
This breakdown confirms downward momentum. According to Fibonacci retracement levels, the next support is around $16.05. Trading volume increased 27% to $838 million, which may indicate investors are giving up their positions.

What to watch:
If AVAX closes above $22.04 (7-day SMA), it could signal a short-term bounce.

3. Institutional Demand Declines (Mixed Impact)

Overview:
Although M2 Capital invested $21 million in AVAX One on October 15, altcoin ETFs saw $22 million in outflows this week. Grayscale’s application for an AVAX ETF is still pending, with a decision expected by July 2025.

What this means:
Positive news about specific projects is being overshadowed by institutions pulling money out of altcoins and moving into safer assets like cash or gold.

Conclusion

AVAX’s recent drop is due to a combination of broader market challenges, technical breakdowns, and reduced liquidity in altcoins. The $20 price level is an important psychological support, but a wider market recovery is needed for AVAX to gain sustained upward momentum.

Key points to monitor:
Can AVAX hold above $19.40 (its low from May 2025) if Bitcoin tests the $107,000 support level? Keep an eye on ETF inflows and Federal Reserve policy updates.

What could affect the price of AVAX?

Avalanche (AVAX) is currently caught between growing interest from big investors and cautious feelings among smaller crypto traders.

1. Big Investors Getting Involved – M2 Capital’s $21 million investment and BlackRock’s use of Avalanche for a $2.8 billion fund could increase demand for AVAX (Positive).
2. Network Improvements – The Octane upgrade cut fees dramatically, and new features make the network more scalable, but daily activity is still below its peak (Mixed).
3. Market Mood – Fear is high among crypto traders, and many altcoins are underperforming, which could keep AVAX’s price under pressure (Negative).

Deep Dive

1. Big Investors Getting Involved (Positive Impact)

Overview:
M2 Capital recently invested $21 million in AVAX One, Avalanche’s digital asset treasury (CryptoPotato). Meanwhile, BlackRock manages a $2.8 billion fund on Avalanche called the BUIDL Fund. Both are buying AVAX to stake and earn rewards, which reduces the number of coins available on the market.

What this means:
When large, regulated investors buy and hold AVAX, it can help balance out selling pressure from smaller traders. BlackRock’s past moves in crypto, like launching a Bitcoin ETF, have often led to price increases. This suggests AVAX could see similar benefits if institutional interest continues.

2. Network Improvements (Mixed Impact)

Overview:
The Octane upgrade in July 2025 cut transaction fees on Avalanche’s C-Chain by about 99% (CoinMarketCap). Also, new staking features have lowered costs for creating subnets, which are smaller, customizable blockchains within Avalanche. However, daily transactions are still about 30% lower than their peak in June 2025 (1.5 million vs. 2.1 million).

What this means:
Lower fees make Avalanche more attractive to developers and users, but the network needs more activity to show strong growth. For example, when FIFA moved to Avalanche’s subnet in May 2025, transactions jumped by 225%. More partnerships like this are important for Avalanche’s future success.

3. Market Mood (Negative Impact)

Overview:
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is at 28, indicating “Fear,” and 90% of altcoins are trading below their 200-day moving average (Bitcoinist). AVAX’s price is closely linked to Bitcoin’s, with a 30-day correlation of 0.89, meaning it tends to move in the same direction as Bitcoin.

What this means:
Until the overall mood in the altcoin market improves, AVAX may continue to follow Bitcoin’s price trends downward. The $20 price level has been tested three times since August and is a key support point. If AVAX falls below $20, it could drop further toward $16, based on technical analysis.

Conclusion

AVAX’s price will depend on whether big investors keep buying enough to offset the general weakness in the crypto market. Holding the $20–$22 range is crucial; if it holds, Avalanche could bounce back in the last quarter of the year, especially if new ETF approvals come through. The big question is: will Avalanche’s technical upgrades lead to more users, or will broader market challenges keep it stuck?

What are people saying about AVAX?

Talk around Avalanche (AVAX) is swinging between hopes for a price breakout and concerns about a possible slowdown. Here’s what’s trending right now:

1. Buyers are aiming for $50, driven by ETF excitement and large investors accumulating AVAX
2. Selling pressure is increasing near the $24.50 resistance level
3. Technical analysts are divided on the short-term price direction

Deep Dive

1. @ManLyNFT: ETF Buzz Pushes $40–$46 Price Targets — Bullish

"August saw a record 35.8 million transactions on the C-Chain [...] Bitwise filed for an @avax ETF [...] Real-world asset (RWA) volumes jumped 58%."
– @ManLyNFT (8.2K followers · 12.4K impressions · 2025-09-06 15:40 UTC)
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What this means: This is positive for AVAX because ETF filings and growing use of real-world assets on Avalanche show that big institutions are starting to trust and use the network. This could increase demand for AVAX as a key part of the system.

2. @ali_charts: Price Pattern Points to Possible Drop to $16 — Bearish

"AVAX was rejected again at $26.50. The channel pattern suggests it might fall toward $16 support."
– @ali_charts (312K followers · 48K impressions · 2025-08-30 07:27 UTC)
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What this means: This is a warning sign for AVAX. If the price keeps failing to break above $26.50, it could lead to a significant drop—about 38%—if the lower boundary of the current downward channel is broken.

3. @im_BrokeDoomer: Institutions Invest $500M in AVAX Ecosystem — Bullish

"AgriForce is becoming AVAX One and raising $500 million to buy $AVAX [...] Liquidity sweep is done, trendline ready to break higher."
– @im_BrokeDoomer (4.1K followers · 9.7K impressions · 2025-09-23 05:55 UTC)
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What this means: This is good news for AVAX because a large investment like $500 million could reduce the number of coins available on the market and increase buying pressure, helping push the price higher.

Conclusion

The outlook for Avalanche is mixed. Supporters point to growing institutional interest, like the Bitwise ETF filing and partnerships such as with FIFA, as reasons for optimism. On the other hand, some technical indicators show resistance around $24.50 to $26.50, which could hold the price back. Keep an eye on the $25 level—if AVAX stays above this, it could confirm a bullish trend aiming for $30 to $50. If it fails, the bearish patterns might take over. Traders are divided, but the fact that over 362,000 wallets hold 21.65 million AVAX at the $22.80 support level suggests many investors have long-term confidence. Watch for updates on spot ETF approvals and real-world asset activity to get clues on where AVAX might head next.

What is the latest news about AVAX?

Avalanche is making strides in gaining support from big institutions while also facing technical challenges. Here are the latest key updates:

1. Hacker Traced Using Avalanche Bridges (October 16, 2025) – Investigator ZachXBT tracked a $28 million Bittensor hack through cross-chain activity involving Avalanche (AVAX).
2. BlackRock Expands BUIDL Fund to Avalanche (October 16, 2025) – The tokenized treasury fund now includes Avalanche alongside Ethereum and Solana.
3. M2 Capital Invests $21 Million in AVAX One (October 15, 2025) – A major investment in a Nasdaq-listed company managing AVAX assets.

In-Depth Look

1. Hacker Traced Using Avalanche Bridges (October 16, 2025)

Summary: Blockchain expert ZachXBT uncovered that stolen Bittensor (TAO) tokens were moved through Avalanche and Ethereum using the Synapse Bridge. The hacker used a privacy tool called Railgun to mix the funds and bought NFTs on Avalanche, which helped link the crime to a former engineer at Opentensor. This on-chain evidence could help law enforcement pursue charges.
What this means: This doesn’t affect Avalanche’s core value but shows how Avalanche’s transparent network helps track cross-chain crimes. However, it might make privacy-focused projects cautious about using Avalanche for now.
(Cryptotimes)

2. BlackRock Expands BUIDL Fund to Avalanche (October 16, 2025)

Summary: BlackRock, one of the world’s largest asset managers, added Avalanche to its $2.8 billion BUIDL tokenized treasury fund, which already includes Ethereum and Solana. CEO Larry Fink highlighted blockchain’s growing role in turning assets into digital tokens, aligning with Avalanche’s focus on institutional use.
What this means: This is a positive sign for Avalanche adoption. Being part of a major traditional finance fund shows Avalanche’s infrastructure is trusted for regulated financial products, which could bring more business to its network.
(AMBCrypto)

3. M2 Capital Invests $21 Million in AVAX One (October 15, 2025)

Summary: UAE-based investment firm M2 Capital put $21 million into AVAX One, a Nasdaq-listed company that plans to hold over $420 million in AVAX tokens. The company will stake these tokens and help grow Avalanche’s subnetworks in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region.
What this means: This is a strong long-term vote of confidence. The steady buying supports AVAX’s value and positions it as a key reserve asset, though short-term price changes might be limited due to overall market conditions.
(Cryptopotato)

Conclusion

Avalanche is balancing growing interest from big financial players like BlackRock and M2 Capital with the technical challenges of tracking cross-chain activity. Despite ongoing market uncertainties, Avalanche’s role in both regulated finance and blockchain security strengthens its position. The big question remains: will enterprise adoption accelerate enough to overcome market skepticism in the coming months?

What is expected in the development of AVAX?

Avalanche is focusing on growing its network by attracting big institutions and expanding its ecosystem.

1. Launching Treasury Companies (October 2025) – A $1 billion plan to increase AVAX holdings by institutions.
2. FIFA Subnet Expansion (2026) – Moving FIFA’s NFT platform to Avalanche.
3. Lower Fees & Async Execution (2025–2026) – Making transactions cheaper and faster.

Deep Dive

1. Launching Treasury Companies (October 2025)

Overview: The Avalanche Foundation is set to launch two treasury companies in the U.S., supported by Hivemind Capital and Dragonfly Capital. These companies aim to raise $1 billion to buy AVAX tokens at discounted prices (Cointribune). They will stake these tokens to earn rewards, similar to how some corporations manage their Bitcoin holdings.
What this means: This is positive for AVAX because it could increase demand from large investors, reducing the available supply and strengthening AVAX’s role in regulated finance. However, the plan depends on investor interest, which carries some risk.

2. FIFA Subnet Expansion (2026)

Overview: FIFA plans to move its NFT ecosystem, which was previously on Algorand and Polygon, to a dedicated Avalanche subnet. This will support blockchain applications related to sports, such as ticketing and collectibles (Yahoo Finance).
What this means: This is somewhat positive for AVAX because it increases real-world use cases. The success of this move depends on how many users adopt the platform. Growth in subnets could boost transaction activity, but the sports NFT market is competitive.

3. Lower Fees & Async Execution (2025–2026)

Overview: After the Octane upgrade in 2025, Avalanche plans to reduce fees on its C-Chain by using asynchronous execution. This will help the network handle more transactions, especially for fast-paced activities like gaming (Blockworks).
What this means: This is good news for AVAX because lower fees make it more competitive compared to Ethereum Layer 2 solutions. However, if these improvements are delayed, Avalanche could lose ground to competitors like Solana.

Conclusion

Avalanche’s roadmap focuses on bringing in institutional investors through treasury companies and expanding practical uses with projects like the FIFA subnet. Technical upgrades aim to keep the network scalable and efficient. While these plans could strengthen AVAX’s position in the enterprise blockchain space, success will depend on how quickly they are implemented and adopted. Additionally, broader market trends will influence Avalanche’s ability to attract and keep institutional partners.

What updates are there in the AVAX code base?

Avalanche made major improvements in 2025 focused on lowering fees, boosting scalability, and attracting business use.

1. Octane Upgrade (April 2025) – Cut fees by 98% and introduced flexible gas pricing.
2. eERC Standard (July 2025) – Added encrypted tokens for privacy-focused real-world asset (RWA) applications.
3. Async Execution Prep (Q3 2025) – Prepared the network for processing transactions in parallel.

Deep Dive

1. Octane Upgrade (April 2025)

Overview: A major network update that changed how fees are calculated and how validators are rewarded.

Key changes included:

• ACP-77: Switched from a fixed 2,000 AVAX stake for validators to a pay-as-you-go model, cutting subnet setup costs by about 83%.
• ACP-125: Lowered the base fee on Avalanche’s C-Chain from 25 nAVAX to 0.1 nAVAX, dropping average transaction fees from $0.25 to roughly $0.01.
• ACP-176: Introduced dynamic fees that adjust based on how busy the network is, helping prevent spam during peak times.

Why it matters: This upgrade is positive for AVAX users because everyday transactions now cost almost nothing, developers save money on running their projects, and validators earn rewards based on cross-chain activity. (Source)

2. eERC Standard (July 2025)

Overview: AvaCloud introduced encrypted ERC-20 tokens that offer privacy features at the application level.

The eERC standard enables:

• Selective transparency for regulators when needed.
• Private token transfers on the blockchain, useful for things like confidential salary payments.
• Compatibility with existing decentralized finance (DeFi) platforms.

Why it matters: This is neutral for AVAX’s price but important for expanding business use cases, especially for confidential real-world assets. However, widespread adoption depends on regulatory approval of these privacy features. (Source)

3. Async Execution Prep (Q3 2025)

Overview: Technical groundwork to allow the network to process multiple transactions at the same time.

This included:

• Enabling asynchronous execution across different subnets.
• Prioritizing transactions based on gas limits and tips.
• Reducing the time it takes to finalize a block from about 2 seconds to under 1 second.

Why it matters: This upgrade is positive for AVAX because it sets the stage for handling over 10,000 transactions per second, which is crucial for applications like gaming and microtransactions. The full feature rollout is expected by the end of 2025. (Source)

Conclusion

Avalanche’s 2025 upgrades focus on making the network cheaper to use (Octane), ready for business needs (eERC), and faster at processing transactions (async execution). With daily transactions exceeding 1.5 million after these updates, AVAX is positioning itself as a leading platform for high-volume blockchain applications. The big question now is whether institutional adoption of real-world assets will drive the next wave of subnet growth.