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What could affect the price of AVAX?

Avalanche’s price is balancing between upcoming token unlocks and growing interest from institutions.

  1. $35M Token Unlock (Bearish) – On October 24, 1.67 million AVAX tokens will be unlocked, which could increase selling pressure.
  2. Real-World Asset Growth (Bullish) – Over $740 million in tokenized assets on Avalanche shows growing institutional use.
  3. Technical Signals (Mixed) – Indicators like MACD and RSI suggest bearish momentum, but oversold conditions might limit further drops.

Deep Dive

1. Token Unlock Pressure (Bearish Impact)

What’s happening:
On October 24, Avalanche will unlock 1.67 million AVAX tokens, worth about $35 million at current prices. This comes after the price dropped 45% from its September high of $36. Historically, token unlocks have led to price drops because more tokens become available to sell.

Why it matters:
When tokens unlock, it can increase supply and push prices down unless new buyers step in. Since 60% of all AVAX tokens are already unlocked, continued selling could push the price down to the $15–$17 range (Crypto.news).

2. Real-World Asset Adoption (Bullish Impact)

What’s happening:
Avalanche currently supports over $745 million in tokenized real-world assets (RWAs). This includes Wyoming’s state-backed stablecoin called FRNT and more than $550 million in institutional credit products. Projects like SkyBridge’s tokenized hedge funds show Avalanche’s role in compliant blockchain solutions.

Why it matters:
Growth in RWAs links AVAX’s value to real institutional demand. If Avalanche continues to expand in this area, it could increase its market value closer to competitors like Ethereum (which has $12.5 billion in RWAs) and Polygon ($1.1 billion) (Bitcoin.com).

3. Technical & Sentiment Signals (Mixed)

What’s happening:

Why it matters:
While the technical indicators lean bearish, the oversold RSI and a Fear & Greed Index reading of 30 suggest there might be buying opportunities for those looking to enter at lower prices. If AVAX can rise back above $23 (its 200-day moving average), it may signal a trend reversal.

Conclusion

Avalanche faces short-term challenges from token unlocks and weak technical signals but has strong long-term potential thanks to growing real-world asset adoption and institutional partnerships. Keep an eye on the $17–$20 support zone for signs of buying interest. The key question remains: will Avalanche’s expanding real-world use cases outweigh the pressure from increased token supply?


What are people saying about AVAX?

Avalanche (AVAX) is currently experiencing mixed signals, swinging between hopes for a price breakout and signs of downward pressure. Here’s the quick summary:

  1. Bullish outlook: If AVAX breaks through resistance, it could climb to $25–$50.
  2. Bearish warning: If it falls below $24, further declines are possible.
  3. Institutional support: Interest is growing with new ETF filings and adoption of real-world assets (RWA).

In-Depth Look

1. Institutional Interest Boosts AVAX

@Defi_Edward reports that a Nasdaq-listed company plans to hold $550 million worth of AVAX in its treasury. Additionally, open interest in AVAX futures has reached $800 million, and the recent Octane network upgrade has cut transaction fees by 98%.
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What this means: This is positive for AVAX because when institutions hold large amounts, it reduces the number of coins available for trading. Plus, lower fees encourage more people to use the network.

2. Key Resistance Level at $27 Could Unlock Higher Gains

@ManLyNFT points out that breaking above $27 could open the door for AVAX to reach $40–$46. In August, the Avalanche C-Chain processed 35.8 million transactions, and real-world asset volumes increased by 58% month-over-month.
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What this means: AVAX’s price is neutral until it can hold above $27. Meanwhile, growing use cases like FIFA’s subnet show increasing real-world adoption, which supports long-term value.

3. Bearish Signals Below $24.60

@AdamBitcoinP2P1 notes that AVAX recently dropped to a support level around $24.05. If it breaks below this, the price could fall further to between $23.60 and $23.80. Bulls need to push the price back above $25.40 to regain control.
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What this means: Short-term outlook is bearish as AVAX struggles to break key resistance near $25.60, especially with Bitcoin’s market dominance relatively low at 58.78%.

Conclusion

The outlook for Avalanche (AVAX) is mixed. Traders are watching the $24–$26 price range closely, balancing technical resistance with growing institutional interest. Big-picture factors like ETF filings from VanEck and Grayscale, plus FIFA’s subnet supporting over 42 million users, suggest potential for long-term growth.

Keep an eye on the October 24 token unlock, which will release $35 million worth of AVAX. If the price falls below $23.80, it could trigger sell-offs. However, holding above $25 might confirm a bullish reversal and signal stronger momentum ahead.


What is the latest news about AVAX?

Avalanche is managing upcoming token releases and regulatory challenges while expanding its use of real-world assets. Here’s the latest:

  1. $35M AVAX Token Release Coming (October 24, 2025) – About 1.67 million AVAX tokens will enter the market, which could put downward pressure on prices.
  2. FIFA Under Swiss Gambling Investigation (October 18, 2025) – FIFA’s Avalanche-based NFT platform is being investigated for unlicensed betting activities.
  3. Real-World Asset Market Nears $35 Billion (October 19, 2025) – Avalanche holds $745 million in tokenized assets, ranking fifth in this growing market.

In-Depth Look

1. $35M AVAX Token Release Coming (October 24, 2025)

What’s Happening: Avalanche plans to release 1.67 million AVAX tokens, worth about $35 million at the current price of $21 per token, as part of its scheduled token vesting. This follows a 45% drop in AVAX’s price since September. Network activity has also slowed by 18% week-over-week, though stablecoin supply ($1.7 billion) and real-world asset adoption remain strong.
What This Means: The token release could increase selling pressure and push prices lower. However, Avalanche’s burn mechanism, which destroys a portion of transaction fees, may help reduce inflation over time. Traders are closely watching the $17 price level—if AVAX falls below this, it could trigger more forced selling. (Crypto.News)

2. FIFA Under Swiss Gambling Investigation (October 18, 2025)

What’s Happening: Swiss regulator GESPA has filed a complaint against FIFA’s NFT platform built on Avalanche, accusing it of running unlicensed gambling through “monetary stake” challenges. This issue arose after FIFA moved its NFT operations from Algorand to Avalanche, introducing lottery-style NFT distributions.
What This Means: This investigation creates uncertainty around Avalanche’s partnership with a major global brand. While FIFA’s NFT sales are sold out, ongoing legal issues could discourage other businesses from joining the platform. Still, the migration to Avalanche initially increased network activity before the controversy. (TokenPost)

3. Real-World Asset Market Nears $35 Billion (October 19, 2025)

What’s Happening: The market for tokenized real-world assets has reached $34.1 billion. Avalanche holds $745 million of these assets, including $550 million in tokens from SkyBridge Capital’s hedge fund. Additionally, Wyoming’s FRNT stablecoin recently launched on Avalanche, marking progress in U.S. regulatory acceptance.
What This Means: Avalanche is becoming a key player in the real-world asset space, with treasury products growing 30% monthly. However, Ethereum still leads with 58% of the market, so Avalanche will need more partnerships to compete effectively. (Bitcoin.com)

Conclusion

Avalanche is balancing the challenges of a large token release and regulatory scrutiny with growing institutional interest in real-world assets. The question remains: will upcoming protocol improvements and increased enterprise adoption be enough to offset the market impact of the $35 million token unlock?


What is expected in the development of AVAX?

Avalanche is making significant progress with these key developments:

  1. FIFA Collect Subnet Launch (Q4 2025) – A custom blockchain layer dedicated to FIFA’s digital collectibles and ticketing.
  2. Blueberry Upgrade (Q4 2025) – Adds support for custom virtual machines, helping businesses create tailored blockchains.
  3. AVAX Treasury Initiative (October 2025) – A $1 billion program to stabilize AVAX by buying tokens through institutional investors.

In-Depth Look

1. FIFA Collect Subnet Launch (Q4 2025)

What’s happening:
Avalanche will create a special subnet (a smaller, dedicated blockchain within Avalanche) for FIFA’s new platform, FIFA Collect. This platform will handle digital collectibles (NFTs), ticket sales, and fan engagement tools. Avalanche’s fast transaction speeds and ability to scale make it a good fit for this.

Why it matters:
This is a positive sign for AVAX because it shows big organizations like FIFA are adopting Avalanche’s technology. This could lead to more fees from subnet usage and more people running validators (nodes that help secure the network). The challenge will be getting millions of fans who aren’t familiar with cryptocurrency to use the platform.

2. Blueberry Upgrade (Q4 2025)

What’s happening:
The Blueberry upgrade will improve Avalanche’s flexibility by allowing subnets to run different types of virtual machines (software that runs smart contracts), not just the Ethereum-compatible ones. This means businesses can create blockchains with custom rules and incentives.

Why it matters:
This upgrade is generally positive because it opens Avalanche to new uses like gaming and real-world assets (RWAs). However, it could also spread out liquidity (the availability of tokens for trading), which might make the network less efficient. This follows the Octane upgrade in May 2025, which lowered transaction fees on Avalanche’s main chain by 43% (Blockworks).

3. AVAX Treasury Initiative (October 2025)

What’s happening:
Avalanche Foundation is setting up two U.S.-based treasury funds to buy $500 million worth of AVAX each at discounted prices. They’re partnering with Hivemind Capital and Dragonfly to support AVAX’s price over the long term, similar to how MicroStrategy supports Bitcoin.

Why it matters:
This is a bullish move because it reduces the number of AVAX tokens available on the market and shows confidence from institutional investors. However, regulatory issues around token sales and potential dilution (increasing token supply) could slow down the process.

Summary

Avalanche’s future plans focus on making subnets more scalable and flexible (Blueberry), building strong partnerships (FIFA), and managing token supply to support price stability (treasury program). While the technical improvements are promising, the real test will be how well Avalanche can attract users in gaming and real-world assets. The big question remains: will Avalanche’s subnets become the go-to solution for businesses, or will competition from Ethereum’s Layer 2 solutions limit its growth?


What updates are there in the AVAX code base?

Avalanche recently made major updates to its technology, focusing on lowering fees, improving scalability, and enhancing privacy.

  1. Octane Upgrade (July 19, 2025) – Cut fees by 96% and introduced flexible pricing for subnet usage.
  2. eERC Standard Launch (July 2025) – Added encrypted tokens that allow selective auditing for compliance.

Deep Dive

1. Octane Upgrade (July 19, 2025)

Overview:
Avalanche’s network underwent a major update that changed how fees are calculated and how validators operate. This dropped the average transaction fee on the C-Chain from about 25 cents to just 1 cent.

Key changes include:

Why it matters:
Lower fees and more flexible staking make Avalanche more attractive to developers and businesses, especially those working with real-world assets (RWA). Validators had until May 1, 2025, to update their systems to keep the network running smoothly. (Source)

2. eERC Standard Launch (July 2025)

Overview:
Avalanche introduced the eERC token standard, which adds encryption to ERC-20 tokens. This lets developers protect transaction details while still allowing authorized parties to audit when needed.

Technical highlights:

Why it matters:
This update is neutral for AVAX’s price but important for privacy-focused use cases like confidential payments. Its success depends on regulatory acceptance but positions Avalanche as a leader in compliant financial technology. (Source)

Conclusion

Avalanche is evolving to meet the needs of businesses requiring scalable and private blockchain solutions, especially for tokenizing real-world assets. While fee cuts and flexible subnet options offer immediate benefits, encrypted tokens may take longer to gain widespread use. It will be interesting to see which industries adopt these upgrades first to fuel subnet growth.


Why did the price of AVAX go up?

Avalanche (AVAX) increased by 4.3% in the last 24 hours, breaking away from its recent downward trend of -8.58% over the past week and -38.29% over the past month. Here’s why:

  1. Real-World Asset (RWA) Momentum – Avalanche supports $745.7 million in tokenized real-world assets, benefiting from a 10.58% monthly growth in the overall RWA market.
  2. Growing Institutional Use – Companies like SkyBridge Capital have tokenized over $550 million in hedge funds and credit products on Avalanche. Additionally, Wyoming launched its first state-backed stablecoin on the Avalanche network.
  3. Technical Recovery – The coin was oversold (RSI14 at 33.5), and a price move above the $20.40 level sparked short-term buying interest.

Deep Dive

1. Growth in Real-World Assets (Positive for AVAX)

Overview: The market for tokenized real-world assets has grown to $34.14 billion, up 10.58% in the last 30 days. Avalanche holds $745.7 million in assets like government bonds and gold. Big players such as Janus Henderson and BlackRock are increasing demand for blockchain-based investment products.

What this means: Avalanche’s focus on compliant, institutional use cases—like Wyoming’s FRNT stablecoin—makes it one of the top five blockchains for real-world asset tokenization. This growing activity boosts the usefulness of AVAX, which is needed to pay fees and stake within Avalanche’s network.

What to watch: Keep an eye on more real-world assets moving onto Avalanche subnets and any regulatory updates around tokenized securities.

2. Challenges and Technical Signals (Mixed Outlook)

Overview: AVAX will see a token unlock of $35 million on October 24, adding 1.67 million tokens to circulation. At the same time, network activity has slowed, with transactions down 18% week-over-week and fees dropping 61%.

What this means: The token unlock could increase selling pressure, but technical indicators suggest a possible short-term price bounce. The price recently moved above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $20.29, and oversold conditions encouraged buyers.

Key level to watch: If AVAX can stay above the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at $25.55, it might signal a shift toward upward momentum.

Conclusion

AVAX’s recent price rebound reflects a balance between positive momentum from growing real-world asset adoption and negative pressure from token supply increases and reduced network activity. Institutional interest strengthens Avalanche’s position, but the upcoming token unlock and weaker on-chain usage could limit gains.

What to monitor: Will AVAX hold above the $20.29 Fibonacci support after the token unlock, or will increased supply push prices down? Watch for subnet expansion and real-world asset inflows to confirm strength.