Why did the price of AVAX fall?

Avalanche (AVAX) dropped 1.5% in the last 24 hours, underperforming the overall crypto market, which fell 0.67%. This decline is driven by negative technical signals and a cautious mood across the crypto sector. Key reasons include:

1. Market uncertainty – General fear in crypto (Fear & Greed Index at 28) and Bitcoin’s dominance rising to 59.2% put pressure on altcoins like AVAX.
2. ETF delays – The U.S. government shutdown has paused the SEC’s review of T. Rowe Price’s crypto ETF application, which includes AVAX.
3. Technical weakness – AVAX fell below a key support level at $19.09, with indicators showing it’s oversold but no clear sign of a rebound yet.

Deep Dive

1. Market-Wide Risk Aversion (Negative Impact)

Overview:
The crypto Fear & Greed Index shows “Fear” at 28 out of 100, indicating cautious sentiment. Bitcoin’s market share (dominance) has climbed to 59.2%, the highest since June 2025. This shift means investors are moving money from altcoins to Bitcoin, which is seen as a safer asset right now. The Altcoin Season Index is at 24, signaling a strong preference for Bitcoin over altcoins.

What this means:

• Investors are favoring Bitcoin amid uncertainty, especially with an important U.S. inflation report expected after the government shutdown.
• AVAX’s trading volume dropped 25% to $502 million, showing less buying interest and lower liquidity for mid-sized altcoins.

What to watch: If Bitcoin dominance rises above 60%, AVAX and other altcoins could face more selling pressure.

2. ETF Approval Delays (Mixed Impact)

Overview:
T. Rowe Price filed for an Active Crypto ETF on October 22, which includes AVAX. However, the SEC has paused its review because of the ongoing U.S. government shutdown. Market predictions suggest there’s a 63% chance the shutdown will end by November 15.

What this means:

• Short-term negative: The delay slows down potential big investments from institutions, which could have boosted AVAX’s price. T. Rowe Price manages $1.77 trillion, so their entry matters.
• Long-term positive: If approved, this ETF could have a similar positive effect on AVAX as Bitcoin ETFs had in 2024, but the timing is uncertain.

What to watch: The end of the government shutdown. A longer delay could push AVAX down toward $17.00 support.

3. Technical Breakdown (Negative Impact)

Overview:
AVAX fell below its key support level at $19.09 and its 7-day moving average of $20.09. Technical indicators like the MACD and RSI show bearish momentum. The RSI is at 29.89, indicating the coin is oversold, but there’s no clear sign of a price rebound yet.

What this means:

• Sellers are in control. The 4-hour chart shows AVAX making lower highs since October 20, with a possible target near $18.50 if it can’t hold $19.00.
• There’s a hint of a possible bounce because the RSI is showing higher lows compared to price, but AVAX would need to close above $20.30 to confirm a turnaround.

Key level: Regaining $20.30 (7-day EMA) would challenge the current downtrend.

Conclusion

AVAX’s recent drop reflects cautious sentiment across the crypto market, delays in ETF approvals, and weak technical signals. While oversold conditions and potential institutional interest offer hope for the long term, the near-term outlook remains negative until Bitcoin dominance peaks or the government shutdown ends.

Key levels to watch: Can AVAX hold the $18.50 support (its low from March 2025) if selling intensifies? Also, keep an eye on updates about the SEC and the government shutdown for clarity on ETF approvals.

What could affect the price of AVAX?

Avalanche’s price is balancing between growing interest from big investors and overall market caution.

1. ETF Inflows (Positive) – T. Rowe Price’s crypto ETF application includes AVAX, showing growing institutional support.
2. Network Upgrades (Mixed) – The Octane Upgrade cut fees by 98%, but technical indicators suggest downward pressure.
3. Altcoin Sentiment (Negative) – Fear dominates the market, with Bitcoin capturing 59% of investment capital.

Deep Dive

1. Institutional ETF Demand (Positive Impact)

Overview:
T. Rowe Price, a major asset manager with $1.68 trillion under management, filed for an active crypto ETF on October 22, 2025. This ETF includes AVAX among 15 cryptocurrencies. This follows similar filings by Bitwise, VanEck, and Grayscale. Currently, 155 crypto exchange-traded products (ETPs) are waiting for approval from the SEC after a recent government shutdown.

What this means:
If approved, this ETF could bring billions of dollars into AVAX through regulated investment products, similar to what happened with Bitcoin ETFs. However, approval is likely delayed until the government shutdown ends (Polymarket estimates a 63% chance by November 15). In the short term, this news may help stabilize AVAX’s price around $19.34, but sustained growth depends on broader market reopening.

2. Subnet Adoption vs. Technical Weakness (Mixed Impact)

Overview:
Avalanche’s Octane Upgrade in July 2025 drastically lowered transaction fees to about $0.01 and increased daily transactions to 1.5 million. Despite these improvements, AVAX is trading below important moving averages (20-day average: $20.09, 200-day average: $23.02), and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 29.89, indicating the coin is oversold.

What this means:
The network upgrades make AVAX more attractive for business use, such as FIFA’s subnet for NFTs. However, technical signals show resistance at $20.51. If AVAX falls below $17, it could trigger panic selling. On the other hand, breaking above $23.27 could indicate a recovery.

3. Market Sentiment & Altcoin Liquidity (Negative Impact)

Overview:
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is at 28, signaling extreme fear among investors. Bitcoin dominance—the share of total crypto market cap held by Bitcoin—is at 59.24%, the highest since June 2025. AVAX’s 24-hour trading volume dropped 25% to $502 million, showing less trading activity in altcoins.

What this means:
AVAX is vulnerable to selloffs driven by Bitcoin’s market moves. Open interest in derivatives has decreased by 16.6% in 24 hours, meaning traders are avoiding risky leveraged bets. Until the altcoin market heats up again (index at 23/100), AVAX’s price gains may be limited despite a 44% drop over the past month.

Conclusion

AVAX’s future depends on ETF approvals that could offset broader market challenges and technical resistance. While network upgrades and institutional interest provide a solid base, Bitcoin’s dominance and fear-driven markets limit short-term gains. Will Avalanche’s subnet growth be enough to counter the altcoin liquidity squeeze? Keep an eye on ETF developments and whether AVAX can close above $21.50 daily to assess momentum.

What are people saying about AVAX?

Talk around Avalanche (AVAX) swings between hopes for a big price jump and warnings of a drop, with some whispering about a potential rise to $150. Here’s the quick summary:

1. Traders are divided on whether the $25 price level will push AVAX higher or cause it to fall
2. Institutional investments and talks of ETFs are driving positive sentiment
3. Long-term analysts see $150 as a possible target if certain chart patterns break upward

Deep Dive

1. @CryptooELITES: Key trendline test looks bullish

"👉 Target: $150 [...] This setup could mark the beginning of the real breakout."
– @CryptooELITES (58K followers · 412K impressions · 2025-09-29 09:19 UTC)
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What this means: This is positive for AVAX because it suggests the current $19–$24 price range forms the base of a long-term pattern. If AVAX breaks past past resistance, it could see significant gains.

2. @im_BrokeDoomer: Institutional interest grows, bullish

"AgriForce raising $500M to buy $AVAX [...] Liquidity sweep already done."
– @im_BrokeDoomer (21K followers · 287K impressions · 2025-09-23 05:55 UTC)
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What this means: This is good news for AVAX because it shows big investors like AgriForce are putting serious money into AVAX, improving the market’s liquidity and supporting price increases.

3. @ali_charts: Bearish chart pattern signals caution

"AVAX faced another rejection at $26.50. Channel pattern suggests move toward $16 support."
– @ali_charts (478K followers · 2.1M impressions · 2025-08-30 07:27 UTC)
View original post
What this means: This is a warning for AVAX because the price is stuck in a downward channel. If this pattern continues, AVAX could drop about 14%, possibly down to $16.

Conclusion

The outlook for AVAX is mixed. On one side, big players like VanEck with a $100 million ecosystem fund and T. Rowe Price’s crypto ETF filing (dated 10/22/2025) show growing institutional interest. On the other side, the price is stuck between $19 support and $25 resistance. Keep an eye on the $24.60–$25.40 range — if AVAX holds above this, it could trigger automated buying, but falling below $19 might lead to sharp sell-offs. Overall, AVAX reflects the broader crypto market’s balance between uncertainty and growing real-world adoption.

What is the latest news about AVAX?

Avalanche is navigating growing interest from big investors and changes in its ecosystem, even as some technical signs suggest caution. Here are the key updates:

1. T. Rowe Price Crypto ETF (October 23, 2025) – The $1.7 trillion asset manager includes AVAX in its new multi-crypto ETF proposal.
2. Avalaunch Rebrands to Nullshot (October 22, 2025) – The platform shifts focus to building AI-powered apps with token rewards.
3. AVAX Bearish Crossover (October 22, 2025) – A major technical indicator signals potential price drops, raising concerns among traders.

Deep Dive

1. T. Rowe Price Crypto ETF (October 23, 2025)

Overview:
T. Rowe Price, which manages $1.77 trillion in assets, has filed to launch an active crypto ETF that includes AVAX and 13 other cryptocurrencies. This fund aims to outperform a major crypto index, showing growing interest from institutional investors. However, the U.S. government shutdown has paused SEC approvals, adding some uncertainty.

What this means:
This is a positive sign for AVAX, indicating stronger institutional support and possible new investments once regulatory delays clear up. Still, the ongoing government shutdown and a 63% chance it will be resolved soon (according to Polymarket) mean short-term uncertainty remains.
(Yahoo Finance)

2. Avalaunch Rebrands to Nullshot (October 22, 2025)

Overview:
Avalaunch, Avalanche’s previous fundraising platform, has rebranded as Nullshot. This new platform focuses on using AI to help users build apps collaboratively. Users can also tokenize their projects and earn rewards by staking tokens. The XAVA token is now positioned as the governance token for this ecosystem.

What this means:
This change aims to boost Avalanche’s role in Web3 by combining AI technology with decentralized ownership. Success depends on how well developers and users adopt these new tools and token models.
(CryptoPotato)

3. AVAX Bearish Crossover (October 22, 2025)

Overview:
AVAX’s price dropped to $19.43, triggering its first bearish MACD crossover in nearly two years. Analysts warn that if the price falls below $17, it could drop further to $15, similar to a 73% decline seen earlier in 2025.

What this means:
This technical signal suggests increased risk of price decline, especially with a 26% rise in selling volume. To avoid this bearish trend, AVAX needs to climb back above $21.50.
(CCN)

Conclusion

Avalanche is balancing strong institutional interest and innovative ecosystem changes against some weakening price signals. T. Rowe Price’s ETF proposal adds long-term credibility, while Nullshot’s success depends on execution and adoption. Meanwhile, AVAX’s price remains vulnerable, with regulatory progress and market conditions likely to influence its next moves.

What is expected in the development of AVAX?

Avalanche’s plan focuses on attracting big institutions, expanding its network for gaming, and improving how different parts of its system work together.

1. $1B Treasury Initiative (October 2025) – Two U.S.-based companies will buy AVAX to hold as corporate reserves.
2. Subnet-Driven Gaming Growth (Q4 2025) – Custom blockchains (called subnets) will support big gaming projects like FIFA Collect and MapleStory Universe.
3. Interchain Messaging Expansion (2026) – Upgrades to allow smooth transfers of assets between different subnets.

Deep Dive

1. $1B Treasury Initiative (October 2025)

Overview:
Avalanche Foundation plans to raise $1 billion by October 2025 through two U.S.-based treasury groups. One is a Nasdaq-listed company backed by Hivemind Capital, aiming to buy $500 million worth of AVAX. The other is a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) from Dragonfly Capital targeting another $500 million (Cointribune). These funds will be used for staking (locking up coins to support the network), providing liquidity (making it easier to trade AVAX), and supporting the Avalanche ecosystem.

What this means:
This is positive for AVAX because big institutional buyers can help stabilize the market by balancing supply and demand. However, the plan depends on these funds closing on time, which carries some risk.

2. Subnet-Driven Gaming Growth (Q4 2025)

Overview:
Avalanche’s subnet technology allows creating custom blockchains tailored for specific projects. This has attracted major gaming companies like FIFA and Nexon (creator of MapleStory). FIFA Collect moved to its own Avalanche subnet in Q3 2025, and MapleStory Universe’s subnet, called Henesys, handles about 1 million transactions daily (NullTX).

What this means:
This is somewhat positive because subnets increase usage and innovation. However, it might take attention away from Avalanche’s main blockchain (the C-Chain). The success depends on keeping users engaged after launch.

3. Interchain Messaging Expansion (2026)

Overview:
Avalanche’s Interchain Messaging (ICM) protocol lets different subnets communicate and transfer assets. In 2026, upgrades are planned to support more complex transfers and decentralized finance (DeFi) applications (Blockworks).

What this means:
This is good news because better communication between subnets could make Avalanche a key platform for apps that work across multiple blockchains. However, delays or technical problems could slow progress.

Conclusion

Avalanche’s roadmap highlights bringing in institutional investors, scaling its network for gaming and real-world assets, and improving cross-chain capabilities. These moves could boost adoption, but success depends on how well they execute the plan and market conditions. A key question remains: how will Avalanche balance growing subnets with keeping its main blockchain decentralized?

What updates are there in the AVAX code base?

Avalanche recently updated its technology to make fees cheaper, improve privacy, and encourage validators to support the network.

1. Octane Upgrade (July 19, 2025) – Cut fees by 96% and introduced smart fee adjustments based on network demand.
2. eERC Standard (July 2025) – Launched encrypted ERC-20 tokens that allow selective transparency for audits.
3. ACP-77 Validator Model (May 2025) – Changed validator fees to a pay-as-you-go system, reducing subnet costs by about 83%.

Deep Dive

1. Octane Upgrade (July 19, 2025)

What happened: Avalanche performed a major update that changed how transaction fees work and how transactions get prioritized.

Key changes include:

• ACP-125: Lowered the base fee on Avalanche’s C-Chain from 25 nano AVAX (nAVAX) to 0.1 nAVAX, dropping average transaction fees from around 25 cents to just 1 cent.
• ACP-176: Introduced fees that adjust automatically during busy times to prevent network overload and spam.
• Asynchronous Execution Prep: Prepared the network for processing multiple transactions at the same time, expected by late 2025.

Why it matters: Lower and more predictable fees make Avalanche more attractive for decentralized finance (DeFi) and business applications. Users save money, and developers get better tools to handle network traffic. (Source)

2. eERC Standard (July 2025)

What happened: Avalanche introduced a new type of ERC-20 token that supports encryption.

This means developers can create tokens that keep transaction details private but still allow authorized parties, like regulators, to audit when needed. This is done without changing the core blockchain protocol, keeping compatibility with Ethereum-based tools.

Why it matters: While this doesn’t directly increase AVAX’s value, it opens doors for Avalanche to be used in regulated industries like private lending and healthcare, where privacy and compliance are both important. (Source)

3. ACP-77 Validator Model (May 2025)

What happened: Avalanche changed how validators stake AVAX to support the network.

Instead of a fixed 2,000 AVAX stake, validators now pay fees based on how much network resources they use. Rewards depend on how reliable they are and how much they help with cross-network communication.

Why it matters: This lowers the cost to run subnets (custom blockchains on Avalanche), encouraging more projects to build on Avalanche. Big projects like FIFA’s NFT platform and Toyota’s mobility prototype benefit from this flexible system. (Source)

Conclusion

Avalanche is focusing on making its platform more appealing for businesses by cutting fees, enhancing privacy, and improving scalability through subnets. The Octane Upgrade and eERC standard show Avalanche’s commitment to supporting real-world assets and institutional users. With partnerships like Visa and growing subnet adoption, AVAX aims to keep its edge among Ethereum-compatible blockchains.