Why did the price of GRT fall?

The Graph (GRT) dropped 7.7% in the last 24 hours, mainly due to weakness across AI-related tokens, ongoing token unlock selling, and negative technical signals.

1. AI Sector Selloff – GRT is affected by a broad decline in AI tokens, which have fallen about 75% over the past year.
2. Token Unlock Selling – Large token releases from GRT’s second-largest holder are adding steady selling pressure.
3. Technical Weakness – The price fell below key support levels ($0.035–$0.038), entering oversold territory.

In-Depth Analysis

1. Weakness in AI and Big Data Tokens (Negative Impact)

Summary:
The AI and big data crypto sector has lost around $53 billion in value since late 2024 (CryptoNews). GRT itself is down 82% year-over-year. In December 2025, selling accelerated as investors moved away from high-risk assets like AI tokens amid lower market liquidity.

What this means:
Because GRT supports Web3 data infrastructure, it’s closely linked to AI-related projects. As excitement around AI cooled and regulatory concerns grew (such as U.S.-China chip restrictions), investors pulled back from AI tokens, dragging GRT down with them. The overall crypto market’s Fear & Greed Index is low at 29/100 (CoinMarketCap), showing a cautious market mood.

2. Token Unlock Selling Pressure (Negative Impact)

Summary:
The wallet holding the second-largest amount of GRT tokens has been releasing large amounts of tokens every month (@koreaOnchain), creating ongoing selling pressure.

What this means:
Since July 2025, GRT’s circulating supply has increased by 4.3%, now at 10.66 billion tokens out of a total 11.43 billion. When new tokens enter the market without matching demand, it tends to push prices down. This supply increase has kept GRT near its all-time low price ($0.0352), despite strong network activity with 11.6 billion queries in the last quarter.

3. Technical Breakdown (Mixed Outlook)

Summary:
GRT’s price fell below the important support level of $0.0381, which now acts as resistance. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 35, indicating the token is oversold. The 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is at $0.076, more than double the current price, showing long-term downward pressure.

What this means:
Many traders are selling after GRT failed to stay above the $0.035–$0.038 range. However, the oversold RSI and a bullish MACD crossover suggest there could be a short-term bounce if buyers step in to defend the $0.035 all-time low.

Conclusion

GRT’s recent price drop is due to a combination of sector-wide rotation away from AI tokens, selling from token unlocks, and technical weakness. While the network’s fundamentals remain solid—highlighted by the Horizon mainnet launch—market sentiment and supply factors are currently driving the price.

What to watch: Will GRT hold above $0.035, or will breaking this level trigger automatic sell orders? Keep an eye on trading volumes and changes in AI sector sentiment.

What could affect the price of GRT?

The Graph’s price is fluctuating as it faces both network improvements and challenges affecting the entire crypto sector.

1. Horizon Upgrade Adoption – A new modular design could make The Graph more useful if developers start using it more.
2. Cross-Chain Liquidity – Integration with Chainlink’s CCIP expands where GRT can be used but comes with some risks in execution.
3. AI Sector Contagion – A 75% crash in the AI and data token sector is dragging GRT down, even though query activity is at an all-time high.

Deep Dive

1. Protocol Upgrades & Network Demand (Mixed Impact)

Overview:
The Horizon upgrade, launching on the mainnet in December 2025, introduces a modular system that supports new features like real-time data streams and ready-made APIs, alongside the existing subgraphs. The network is busy, with 11.6 billion queries in the last quarter and over 12,000 active subgraphs. However, despite this growth in usage, GRT’s price has dropped 83% over the past year.

What this means:
If developers adopt these new features, it could increase demand for staking GRT by Indexers and boost revenue from query fees, which rose 12% quarter-over-quarter as of August 2025. Still, GRT’s annual inflation rate is 3%, so usage needs to grow enough to prevent the token’s value from being diluted.

2. Cross-Chain Expansion via CCIP (Bullish Impact)

Overview:
Since November 2025, GRT tokens can move across multiple blockchains like Arbitrum, Base, and Avalanche thanks to Chainlink’s Cross-Chain Interoperability Protocol (CCIP). Support for Solana is expected in 2026. This integration aims to make staking and paying for queries seamless across different networks.

What this means:
Making GRT available on multiple blockchains could attract developers from Solana, which accounts for about 15% of all blockchain activity, to The Graph’s ecosystem. Looking back, Chainlink’s (LINK) CCIP integration in 2019 was followed by a 650% price increase. However, some features like cross-chain delegation are still pending, which introduces some risk if they are delayed.

3. AI/Data Token Contagion (Bearish Impact)

Overview:
GRT’s 82% price drop over the past year reflects a wider 75% crash in the AI and big data crypto sector. Even though The Graph handled 11.6 billion queries in Q4 2025 (up from 6.1 billion in Q1), it’s still affected by a lack of liquidity in this sector.

What this means:
Until big investors return to infrastructure tokens like GRT, the price may continue to struggle despite strong usage numbers. The Fear & Greed Index is at 29, indicating “Extreme Fear,” which suggests that selling pressure driven by negative sentiment could continue.

Conclusion

The future of GRT depends on whether The Graph’s protocol upgrades can overcome the current negative sentiment in the crypto sector. Key indicators to watch are how quickly developers adopt the Horizon upgrade (tracked by new subgraph deployments) and how much total value locked (TVL) grows on Solana after CCIP integration. The big question is: can The Graph keep growing its query volume by 20% or more each quarter while weathering the ongoing downturn in AI-related tokens?

What are people saying about GRT?

Conversations around The Graph (GRT) swing between seeing it as "seriously undervalued" technology and frustration over "why isn’t the price going up?" Here’s what’s currently driving the buzz:

1. Horizon Upgrade excitement – New modular design boosts AI and data capabilities
2. CCIP integration – Cross-chain liquidity improvements, but little impact on price so far
3. Institutional activity – Debate between accumulation and selling pressure from token unlocks

In-Depth Look

1. @deexra: GRT as the key to decentralized AI 🧩 bullish

"Without The Graph, decentralized AI can’t function. There were 11.6 billion queries last quarter, yet the price is stuck at 2018 levels – this looks like a setup before a big infrastructure-driven rally."
– @deexra (793 followers · 8,101 posts · 2025-12-25 05:17 UTC)
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What this means: The positive outlook depends on GRT becoming the main data layer for AI applications. The Horizon Upgrade, active since December 11, allows real-time data analysis. The fact that network use is high but price remains low suggests a disconnect that could correct in the future.

2. @koreaOnchain: Token unlocks causing ongoing sell pressure 🔄 bearish

"The second-largest token holder’s wallet releases 9 million GRT every month – why buy into this constant selling?"
– @koreaOnchain (781 followers · 2,199 posts · 2025-12-20 08:49 UTC)
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What this means: The negative outlook is driven by over $3.2 million in monthly sell-offs from early investors. Even though the Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows GRT is oversold (at 34), weak Bitcoin dominance (58.9%) is dragging down riskier altcoins like GRT.

3. @graphprotocol: Growing enterprise adoption ☕ bullish

"DTCC used to spend years building data connectors – now it takes weeks with The Graph. This is a major traditional finance player embracing web3 indexing technology."
– @graphprotocol (342K followers · 9,257 posts · 2025-12-04 18:02 UTC)
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What this means: This is a strong positive sign as established financial institutions test GRT-powered data pipelines. Serving 1.2 trillion queries year-to-date shows steady demand from enterprise users, even during a tough crypto market.

Conclusion

The overall view on GRT is mixed. It has strong fundamentals like 11.6 billion quarterly queries and a pilot project with DTCC, but faces challenges from tokenomics, including a price that’s nearly 99% below its all-time high and ongoing token unlocks creating selling pressure. Keep an eye on the 30-day CCIP transfer volume after the Solana integration—if GRT successfully moves more activity from Ethereum, it could finally see its utility reflected in the price.

What is the latest news about GRT?

The Graph is facing tough market conditions in the AI token sector but is moving forward with important upgrades to its technology. Here’s a quick summary of the latest developments:

1. Horizon Mainnet Launch (December 11, 2025) – The Graph upgraded to a modular system that supports multiple data services at once.
2. Cross-Chain Expansion with Chainlink CCIP (November 7, 2025) – GRT tokens can now be transferred easily between Arbitrum, Base, and Solana blockchains.
3. AI Token Market Drop (December 25, 2025) – GRT’s price fell 82% over the past year, along with a $53 billion selloff in AI-related crypto tokens.

Deep Dive

1. Horizon Mainnet Launch (December 11, 2025)

What happened: The Graph launched its Horizon upgrade, changing from a system that supported only one type of data service to one that supports multiple services at the same time. This includes real-time data streaming (Substreams), on-chain token analytics (Token API), and traditional subgraphs. All of these services are secured by staking GRT tokens.

Why it matters: This upgrade is designed to attract more businesses, including big institutions like DTCC, by providing reliable and verifiable blockchain data. By combining these services under one economic system powered by GRT, The Graph aims to become a key data provider for Web3 applications. (The Graph)

2. Chainlink CCIP Integration (November 7, 2025)

What happened: The Graph integrated Chainlink’s Cross-Chain Interoperability Protocol (CCIP), which allows GRT tokens to move smoothly between different blockchains like Arbitrum, Base, and Solana. The next phase will enable cross-chain staking and paying query fees across these networks.

Why it matters: This makes it easier for developers and users to work across multiple blockchain platforms without hassle, improving liquidity and usability of GRT. However, the market reacted cautiously, with GRT’s price dropping 7.7% after the announcement. (Chainlink)

3. AI Crypto Sector Collapse (December 25, 2025)

What happened: Tokens related to AI lost about 75% of their value in 2025, wiping out $53 billion in market value. GRT’s price dropped 82%, similar to other AI-focused tokens like RNDR (-82%) and FET (-73%). This decline is linked to fading excitement around AI and ongoing tensions between the U.S. and China in technology sectors.

Why it matters: Even though The Graph is working on AI data indexing through its MCP beta program, the overall negative sentiment in the AI crypto market is weighing heavily on GRT’s price. Because GRT is closely tied to AI trends, it remains vulnerable to further declines if the sector doesn’t recover soon. (CryptoNews)

Conclusion

The Graph is pushing forward with important technical improvements despite a challenging market for AI-related tokens. The key question is whether Horizon’s appeal to large enterprises can help offset the ongoing selloff in the AI crypto sector. Will growing demand for reliable blockchain data from institutions boost GRT’s value, or will the AI market downturn continue to hold it back?

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What is expected in the development of GRT?

The Graph is focusing on expanding its technology across multiple blockchains, integrating artificial intelligence (AI), and upgrading its infrastructure.

1. Cross-Chain Staking with CCIP (2026) – Users will be able to stake The Graph’s token, GRT, on other blockchains like Solana, Arbitrum, and Base.
2. SQL-Powered Data Engines (2026) – Introducing easier and more powerful data queries designed for businesses.
3. AI-Driven Query Tools (2026) – Launching tools that let users ask questions in plain English to access blockchain data without coding.
4. Interoperability Standards (2026) – Expanding support for multiple blockchains and real-time data streaming.

Deep Dive

1. Cross-Chain Staking with CCIP (2026)

Overview
The Graph plans to use Chainlink’s Cross-Chain Interoperability Protocol (CCIP) to allow GRT tokens to be staked and managed across different blockchains like Solana, Arbitrum, and Base. This builds on an earlier announcement from July 2025 that set the stage for combining GRT liquidity across these networks (source).

What this means
This is a positive development for GRT because it could encourage more people to stake their tokens, increasing demand. However, there are risks if the technology to connect these blockchains or security checks take longer than expected.

2. SQL-Powered Data Engines (2026)

Overview
The Graph is developing a new data layer that supports SQL, a common language used to manage and analyze data. This will make it easier for businesses to perform complex blockchain data analysis. It builds on existing privacy features and support for multiple blockchains.

What this means
This could be good for GRT if developers and businesses adopt it widely. It may help The Graph become a go-to platform for institutional blockchain data analysis. Still, it faces competition from centralized data services.

3. AI-Driven Query Tools (2026)

Overview
The Graph will expand its AI Beta program by introducing a “Graph Assistant” that allows users to ask questions in natural language. This uses the current MCP framework, which connects AI tools to blockchain data sources called Subgraphs.

What this means
This is promising because it could attract users who don’t have technical skills, increasing the number of data queries. However, ensuring AI accurately understands blockchain data will be important.

4. Interoperability Standards (2026)

Overview
After integrating with TRON and Solana, The Graph will focus on creating standard protocols for indexing data across multiple blockchains. This will support new networks like Monad and Peaq.

What this means
This is a neutral development. Supporting more blockchains can increase usage but also requires more resources. How quickly The Graph can implement these standards and provide clear developer guides will be key.

Conclusion

The Graph is evolving from a specialized indexing tool into a multi-chain, AI-enhanced data platform. While upgrades like CCIP and SQL engines aim to attract business users, success depends on managing the challenges of supporting many blockchains. The big question is whether GRT’s cross-chain staking and AI features can outpace competitors like Chainlink’s query services.

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What updates are there in the GRT code base?

The Graph’s latest updates focus on improving multi-chain support and making developer tools easier to use.

1. Horizon Upgrade (December 11, 2025) – Changed to a modular system that supports multiple data services.
2. Subgraph Dev Mode (October 30, 2025) – Allows developers to test Subgraphs locally with faster updates.
3. Token API Beta 4 (August 1, 2025) – Added support for Solana, Avalanche, and Uniswap V4 tokens.

Deep Dive

1. Horizon Upgrade (December 11, 2025)

What it is: The Graph moved from being a platform that only handled Subgraphs (which are like data indexes) to a flexible system that supports different types of data services, such as real-time data streams and ready-to-use APIs.
This change means new tools—like analytics dashboards and AI workflows—can run alongside Subgraphs on the same network, all powered by the $GRT token. The upgrade includes a shared blockchain layer that helps coordinate these services and improved software for handling data from multiple blockchains at once.
Why it matters: This is good news for $GRT because it broadens what The Graph can do. Developers building AI tools, live dashboards, or apps that work across different blockchains may be more likely to use it. (Source)

2. Subgraph Dev Mode (October 30, 2025)

What it is: Developers can now test changes to Subgraphs on their own computers without needing to upload them to a test network.
This update removes the need for IPFS (a decentralized file system) and speeds up syncing by running certain processes in parallel, cutting wait times by up to 40%. It also adds features that let developers pre-calculate common metrics like hourly or daily trading volumes directly in their data schemas.
Why it matters: This is somewhat positive for $GRT because it makes it easier and faster for developers to build and improve Subgraphs. Over time, this could lead to more usage and higher fees from queries. (Source)

3. Token API Beta 4 (August 1, 2025)

What it is: The Graph added support for tracking Solana SPL token transfers, Avalanche NFTs and tokens, and Uniswap V4 pricing data.
The update also standardized data outputs to work better with AI tools like ClaudeAI and ChatGPT, and introduced batch queries to reduce the number of API calls needed by analytics platforms.
Why it matters: This is positive for $GRT because it strengthens The Graph’s position in decentralized finance (DeFi) and AI data workflows across multiple blockchains, meeting growing demand for cross-chain data access. (Source)

Conclusion

The Graph is evolving from a platform mainly focused on Subgraphs into a broader data infrastructure protocol. Recent updates improve developer productivity (Subgraph Dev Mode), support multiple blockchains (Horizon Upgrade), and prepare for AI integration (Token API Beta 4). While key metrics like query volume and Subgraph deployments will show how well these changes work, these upgrades position $GRT as a critical part of decentralized data networks. It will be interesting to see how increased developer activity on Solana after the Horizon Upgrade affects The Graph’s network usage.