Why did the price of GRT fall?

The Graph (GRT) dropped 1.43% in the past 24 hours, underperforming the overall crypto market, which fell 0.46%. This comes after a 3.16% gain over the past week but matches recent changes in technical signals and market mood. Here are the main factors:

1. Technical Breakdown
   A bearish flag pattern led to selling pressure, with a target price around $0.0317.

2. Grayscale Fund Rebalancing
   Grayscale cut GRT’s share in its AI-focused fund from 8.73% down to 5.30%.

3. Market Sentiment and Altcoin Weakness
   Increased leverage and weakness in altcoins added to selling pressure.

1. Technical Breakdown (Bearish Impact)

What happened: On January 11, GRT’s price fell below a key technical level called the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at $0.0419. This confirmed a bearish flag pattern, a signal that often leads to more selling, as noted by analysts at Crypto AI by Klondike. This triggered automatic sell orders and stop-losses.

What it means: When these technical levels break, it can cause a chain reaction of quick sell-offs. GRT’s Relative Strength Index (RSI), a measure of momentum, dropped from neutral toward oversold, encouraging traders to exit. The pattern suggests a possible 20% price drop from this breakdown, increasing short-term risk.

What to watch: It’s important for GRT to stay above the next support level at $0.0401 (the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement) to avoid falling further toward $0.0373.

2. Grayscale Rebalancing (Bearish Impact)

What happened: On January 6, Grayscale, a major institutional investor, reduced GRT’s allocation in its Decentralized AI Fund from 8.73% to 5.30%, as part of its quarterly portfolio adjustments (Binance Square).

What it means: This move signals less confidence in GRT’s role in the AI space for now. Since Grayscale’s fund manages $17.73 billion, changes like this can influence other investors and trigger further selling from those tracking the fund.

What to watch: Keep an eye on Grayscale’s next rebalancing in April 2026 for any shifts in AI token allocations.

3. Market Sentiment & Altcoin Weakness (Bearish Impact)

What happened: Overall crypto market leverage (borrowed funds used for trading) rose by 12.68%, while altcoins, including GRT, lost ground compared to Bitcoin, which holds a dominant 58.49% share of the market. GRT’s trading volume jumped 43% to $25.2 million, indicating increased selling.

What it means: Investors moved money toward Bitcoin during uncertain times, putting pressure on riskier altcoins like GRT. Higher funding rates (+32.75% monthly) show crowded short positions, which can lead to more forced selling when prices drop.

What to watch: Bitcoin maintaining dominance above 58% could keep altcoins under pressure for a while.

Conclusion

GRT’s recent price drop is due to a mix of technical sell signals, institutional portfolio changes, and broader weakness in altcoins. This shows that infrastructure tokens like GRT are still sensitive to shifts in market mood. Key point: Watch if GRT can hold the $0.040 support level to avoid revisiting its December low near $0.035.

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What could affect the price of GRT?

The price of The Graph (GRT) is currently caught between positive developments in its technology and broader economic challenges.

1. Horizon Upgrade (Positive) – New modular data services open up more ways to use GRT.
2. Regulatory Changes (Mixed) – The CLARITY Act could bring more institutional interest but also adds some uncertainty.
3. Supply Factors (Negative) – Large token unlocks from early investors may increase selling pressure.

In-Depth Analysis

1. Horizon Upgrade & Cross-Chain Expansion (Positive Impact)

Overview:
The Graph’s Horizon upgrade, which went live in December 2025, introduces multiple new data services like real-time data streams, pre-indexed APIs, and AI tools, all built on its existing platform. Recent partnerships, including integration with TRON and cross-chain staking on networks like Arbitrum and Solana, have expanded its usefulness. In 2024, The Graph processed over 1.2 trillion queries, showing strong and consistent demand.

What this means:
By expanding to over 90 blockchains and offering new data products, The Graph could see increased staking and token use. If the number of queries grows by more than 15% quarter-over-quarter in early 2026 (compared to just 2% growth in late 2025), it would suggest growing momentum and positive market sentiment.

2. U.S. Regulatory Developments (Mixed Impact)

Overview:
The CLARITY Act, expected to pass by mid-2026, aims to provide clearer rules for the cryptocurrency market. The Graph Foundation is actively working with lawmakers to secure exemptions for decentralized infrastructure. However, stricter data privacy regulations could make it harder for businesses to adopt The Graph’s services.

What this means:
Clearer regulations might encourage traditional financial institutions to partner with The Graph, as seen with DTCC’s current use of The Graph for settlement analytics. On the downside, if the Act imposes heavy compliance costs on network participants like indexers and curators, it could increase operational expenses and put pressure on The Graph’s current fee model, which charges 0.03% per query.

3. Token Unlocks & Inflation (Negative Impact)

Overview:
By July 2026, 17% of GRT’s total supply held by early investors will be fully unlocked. Additionally, Edge & Node’s 8% stake will start a five-year gradual unlock beginning January 2026. New token issuance is steady at about 3% per year.

What this means:
Even if half of the unlocked tokens are staked again, there could still be around $58 million worth of selling pressure in the first half of 2026. Given GRT’s high price volatility (62% over 30 days, compared to Ethereum’s 54%), these unlocks could lead to sharper price drops, especially if the broader market is weak.

Conclusion

The future of GRT depends on how well it balances technological progress with supply increases and regulatory changes. Key factors to watch include how quickly the Horizon upgrade is adopted (which can be tracked through subgraph deployments) and the final details of the CLARITY Act. A critical question is whether The Graph’s token burn mechanisms can offset the impact of token unlocks, especially if query fees double by the third quarter of 2026.

What are people saying about GRT?

Conversations around The Graph (GRT) are swinging between big long-term optimism and short-term caution. Here’s the latest:

1. 🐻 Bears are aiming for a drop to $0.0317, expecting a breakdown from a rising wedge pattern.
2. 🚀 Bulls see a potential 1400% gain if a falling wedge breakout plays out.
3. 📈 Trading volume has doubled recently, which could signal a shift in momentum.

Deep Dive

1. Bearish Signal: Rising Wedge Pattern Suggests Short-Term Drop

@KlondikeAI points out a “Rising Wedge” pattern on GRT’s chart, which often signals a price drop. The recommendation is to consider a short trade at $0.0417, with a stop-loss at $0.0457, and a target price of $0.0317.
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What this means: This setup suggests GRT could fall about 24% in the short term, reflecting some trader skepticism.

2. Bullish Signal: Falling Wedge Breakout Could Lead to Big Gains

@nustleo highlights a “Falling Wedge” pattern on the monthly chart, which is often a sign of a potential price reversal. They identify a confirmed bottom at $0.032 and project targets between $0.75 and $2.40, implying a possible 1400% increase.
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What this means: This suggests a long-term bullish outlook, with the possibility of a major price recovery if the pattern holds.

3. Volume Surge Indicates Growing Interest

@Layer2Alex notes that GRT’s trading volume has doubled compared to recent weeks, which often precedes price movement.
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What this means: Increased volume can signal renewed trader interest and momentum, potentially leading to price changes.

Conclusion

The outlook for GRT is mixed. Some traders see bearish signals from wedge patterns, while others are optimistic about a big breakout supported by rising volume. Keep an eye on the $0.040–$0.045 price range for a clear move, as both buyers and large holders are active near these levels.

What is the latest news about GRT?

The Graph is making strides with institutional interest and technical improvements despite a volatile market. Here are the key updates:

1. Grayscale AI Fund Adds GRT (January 8, 2026) – Grayscale’s inclusion of GRT shows growing trust from big investors in its role within Web3.
2. Cross-Chain GRT via Chainlink CCIP (October 31, 2025) – GRT can now move smoothly across Arbitrum, Base, and Avalanche blockchains.
3. Horizon Mainnet Upgrade Live (December 11, 2025) – The Graph upgraded its system to support multiple data services in one platform.

Deep Dive

1. Grayscale AI Fund Adds GRT (January 8, 2026)

What happened: Grayscale updated its Decentralized AI Fund to include 5.3% GRT, alongside other tokens like Bittensor and NEAR. This shows that big investors see The Graph as important for organizing blockchain data used in AI.

Why it matters: This is a positive sign for GRT because it confirms its value in decentralized AI projects, which could bring in more long-term investment. However, since GRT’s share in the fund is relatively small, the immediate effect on its price might be limited. (Binance)

2. Cross-Chain GRT via Chainlink CCIP (October 31, 2025)

What happened: The Graph integrated Chainlink’s Cross-Chain Interoperability Protocol (CCIP), allowing GRT tokens to be transferred easily between Arbitrum, Base, and Avalanche blockchains, with Solana support coming soon.

Why it matters: This upgrade is good news for GRT because it makes it easier for developers to use GRT across different blockchain networks, improving liquidity and usefulness. This could lead to more developers adopting The Graph, but the impact depends on how much the overall ecosystem grows. (The Graph)

3. Horizon Mainnet Upgrade Live (December 11, 2025)

What happened: The Graph launched the Horizon upgrade, moving to a modular system that supports multiple data services like Substreams, Token APIs, and real-time analytics all in one protocol.

Why it matters: This is a strong step forward for GRT because it broadens what the protocol can do, potentially increasing fees earned and rewards for token holders. Still, the upgrade’s success depends on more users and developers actually using these new features. (The Graph)

Conclusion

With growing support from big investors and important technical upgrades, GRT is strengthening its position as a key part of Web3 infrastructure. The big question is whether increased usage and cross-chain features will help GRT’s price bounce back in early 2026.

What is expected in the development of GRT?

The Graph’s roadmap is focused on expanding across multiple blockchains, integrating AI technology, and upgrading its core protocol. Key milestones include:

1. Horizon Mainnet (December 9, 2025) – Launch of a modular blockchain that supports multiple services.
2. Cross-Chain Staking via CCIP (Q1 2026) – Allowing GRT tokens to be used across Solana, Arbitrum, and Base blockchains.
3. AI Agent Tools (Q2 2026) – Introducing natural language queries and AI-powered data analysis.
4. Token API Expansion (2026) – Adding support for Solana’s SPL tokens and tools for businesses.
5. Economic Transparency (Date TBD) – Improving how GRT’s supply and demand are managed.

Deep Dive

1. Horizon Mainnet (December 9, 2025)

Overview: The Horizon upgrade will transform The Graph into a multi-service blockchain platform. This means that different services like Subgraphs, Substreams, and the Token API will run together on one unified system. Testing since November 2025 shows it could cut indexing costs by 40% and enable real-time data streaming.
What this means: This is positive for GRT because it strengthens The Graph’s position as a flexible data layer, which could lead to more queries and higher demand for staking. However, moving existing services to the new system could be technically challenging.

2. Cross-Chain Staking via CCIP (Q1 2026)

Overview: GRT will use Chainlink’s Cross-Chain Interoperability Protocol (CCIP) to allow tokens to move and be staked across different blockchains like Solana, Arbitrum, and Base. This follows an earlier integration with TRON in December 2025.
What this means: This is somewhat positive, as it expands where GRT can be used. Solana developers might increase demand, but the success depends on how smoothly CCIP works. Delays or security issues with bridging tokens could be risks.

3. AI Agent Tools (Q2 2026)

Overview: Building on a 2025 beta, The Graph plans to launch a no-code “Graph Assistant” that lets users ask questions in plain English and get AI-curated data sets, such as tools to detect NFT scams.
What this means: This is promising because it could attract users who aren’t familiar with blockchain technology and appeal to businesses. Still, competition from big AI providers like OpenAI could limit how widely these tools are adopted.

4. Token API Expansion (2026)

Overview: The Token API currently supports 8 Ethereum-compatible blockchains and Solana. The plan is to add more features like detailed token information, liquidity tracking, and tax reporting. Partnerships with Solana-based platforms Raydium and Jupiter suggest deeper DeFi integration.
What this means: This is a positive development that aligns with Solana’s growth. It could help stabilize GRT’s value by attracting enterprise users, though it depends on how well Solana’s ecosystem performs.

5. Economic Transparency (Date TBD)

Overview: Community members have called for clearer information on GRT’s token economics, including how inflation is controlled and how the treasury is managed. There’s no set timeline for these changes yet.
What this means: Delays here could hurt trust and be negative for GRT holders. Transparency is important for keeping long-term investors, especially since 90% of GRT tokens are currently in circulation.

Conclusion

The Graph’s 2026 roadmap combines important technical upgrades like Horizon and CCIP with efforts to grow its ecosystem through AI tools and Solana integration. Key things to watch are how quickly CCIP is adopted and whether the AI features attract users beyond the crypto community. A critical question remains: can GRT’s usefulness grow fast enough to offset concerns about inflation as more tokens become available?

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What updates are there in the GRT code base?

Recent updates to The Graph’s codebase improve its flexibility and make it easier for developers to build on the platform.

1. Horizon Upgrade Live (Dec 2025) – Lets the protocol support multiple types of data services, not just Subgraphs.
2. Subgraph Dev Mode & Features (Oct 2025) – Speeds up local development and introduces modular data design tools.

Deep Dive

1. Horizon Upgrade Live (Dec 2025)

Overview: The Horizon upgrade changes The Graph into a modular system that supports various data services beyond just Subgraphs. While existing Subgraphs keep working as before, the protocol now also supports real-time data streams, analytics tools, and prebuilt APIs.

Developers can now combine data from Subgraphs with other services like Substreams or the Token API, all under a single payment system. The upgrade also introduces long-lasting resource allocations, which help keep services running smoothly with fewer interruptions. This is important as some centralized providers are shutting down their services, raising concerns about long-term reliability.

What this means: This is good news for GRT holders because it broadens what The Graph can do, attracting more users and services. It also improves reliability without disrupting current workflows.
(The Graph)

2. Subgraph Dev Mode & Features (Oct 2025)

Overview: Four new features were introduced:

1. Dev Mode lets developers test Subgraphs locally without needing to upload to IPFS or redeploy,
2. Composition allows reusing Subgraphs like building blocks,
3. Aggregations provide pre-calculated hourly or daily data trends, and
4. Declarative eth_calls enable multiple smart contract reads to happen in parallel.

These features speed up development significantly: Dev Mode reduces testing time from hours to seconds, and eth_calls make syncing data up to 10 times faster. Aggregations make it easier to analyze data like daily trading volumes.

What this means: This is positive for GRT because faster and simpler development encourages more Subgraph creation, which increases network activity. It directly solves common developer frustrations with slow testing cycles.
(The Graph)

Conclusion

By evolving into a multi-service protocol with Horizon and improving developer tools through Dev Mode, The Graph is strengthening its role as the data backbone of web3. It will be interesting to see how these improvements boost adoption in new blockchain ecosystems like Solana and TRON.