Why did the price of AAVE go up?

AAVE increased by 1.66% in the last 24 hours, even though it dropped 13% over the past week. This performance was weaker than the overall crypto market, which gained 2.6%. The recent rebound was driven by mixed technical signals and some positive news.

1. Technical Support Bounce – AAVE’s price stabilized around important technical levels.
2. Visa’s DeFi Endorsement – Visa highlighted Aave’s key role in the $670 billion stablecoin lending market.
3. Buyback Program Momentum – Aave’s token repurchases helped offset large sales by major holders.

Deep Dive

1. Technical Rebound from Key Levels (Neutral Impact)

Overview:
AAVE’s price found support near the 50% Fibonacci retracement level ($211.16) and a key pivot point ($211.27). This aligns with an oversold Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 31.44, showing the token stabilized after a 13% weekly drop. The MACD indicator (-16.51) is still bearish, but short-term traders likely took advantage of the dip to buy.

What this means:
The price bounce shows relief from oversold conditions rather than a full recovery. Historically, AAVE has bounced back from this 50% Fibonacci level during market corrections, but a sustained upward trend would require breaking above the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $256.70.

What to watch:
If AAVE closes above $215 (current price: $209.45), it could signal short-term momentum. If it fails, the price might retest the next support level at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement ($187.22).

2. Visa’s Programmable Money Report (Bullish Catalyst)

Overview:
Visa’s research paper from October 17, 2025, recognized Aave as a leader in the $670 billion stablecoin lending market. The report highlighted Aave’s dominance, accounting for 89% of the volume in August 2025, and praised its institutional-grade infrastructure.

What this means:
This endorsement boosts Aave’s reputation as a bridge between traditional finance (TradFi) and decentralized finance (DeFi), attracting investors looking for regulated crypto exposure. However, the overall impact was limited due to ongoing market caution, reflected in a low Fear & Greed Index score of 25.

3. Buybacks vs. Whale Selling (Mixed Impact)

Overview:
Since March 2025, Aave’s decentralized autonomous organization (DAO) has repurchased $5.42 million worth of AAVE tokens (Coinspeaker). This helped counterbalance a large sale of $19.8 million by a major holder (whale) on October 17 (Decrypt).

What this means:
Buybacks reduce the available supply of AAVE tokens, which can support the price. However, the large sell-off by whales—who sold 88,227 AAVE tokens—shows there is still some distrust among big investors, especially while Bitcoin remains dominant in the market (BTC dominance at 58.68%).

Conclusion

AAVE’s recent 24-hour gain is mainly due to oversold technical conditions, Visa’s positive recognition of its lending platform, and buybacks offsetting large sales. Still, the token remains vulnerable to broader market fears and Bitcoin’s strong influence.

Key watch: Can AAVE maintain support at $210 if Bitcoin tests $100,000 again? Watch for hourly closes above the pivot point ($211.27) to confirm if the bullish momentum will continue.

What could affect the price of AAVE?

Aave’s price is influenced by a mix of new technology updates, market activity, and broader economic factors.

1. V4 Upgrade (Q4 2025) – A new design could make liquidity more efficient.
2. Whale Activity & Sentiment – Large sell-offs over $35 million contrast with strategic buying.
3. Regulatory Developments – Clearer stablecoin rules might boost decentralized finance (DeFi) use.

In-Depth Look

1. V4 Protocol Upgrade (Positive Outlook)

What’s happening:
Aave plans to launch its V4 upgrade in the fourth quarter of 2025. This update introduces a “hub-and-spoke” system that centralizes liquidity pools but allows different risk settings for each connected market. This could attract bigger investors and make better use of available funds.

Why it matters:
Past upgrades, like V3’s expansion across multiple blockchains, helped Aave’s total value locked (TVL) grow beyond $40 billion (Cointelegraph). If V4’s new risk controls and automated tools reduce the chance of forced liquidations, more users might borrow and lend, increasing revenue and supporting AAVE’s price.

2. Whale Activity & Market Sentiment (Mixed Signals)

What’s happening:
Recent blockchain data shows mixed behavior from large holders (“whales”):

• Negative: Whales sold about $35.5 million worth of AAVE (88,000 tokens) in October 2025, causing a 21% price drop that week.
• Positive: Some whales have been buying strategically, like one who purchased 261,000 AAVE tokens in May 2025, signaling confidence.

Why it matters:
Whales control roughly 30% of AAVE’s circulating supply, which can cause big price swings. Panic selling during Bitcoin’s dip to $104,000 worsened losses (Decrypt). However, Aave’s decentralized autonomous organization (DAO) has been buying back $1 million worth of tokens weekly since April 2025, spending $15.7 million total, which may help stabilize the price.

3. Regulatory & Economic Factors (Neutral to Slightly Negative)

What’s happening:
The U.S. GENIUS Act is working on clearer rules for stablecoins, which could legitimize Aave’s GHO stablecoin. But overall, global fear around cryptocurrencies remains moderate (fear index at 25), and Bitcoin’s dominance at 58.6% limits growth for other coins like AAVE.

Why it matters:
Stablecoins account for about 60% of borrowing on Aave. Clearer regulations could bring more traditional financial investors into DeFi. Still, as Bitcoin remains dominant, altcoins like AAVE may struggle to recover until investors are more willing to take risks.

Conclusion

Aave’s price will depend on how well the V4 upgrade performs, whether whale selling calms down, and shifts in the broader crypto market. While new technology and buybacks offer support, risks from Bitcoin’s dominance and forced liquidations remain. Will Aave’s total value locked climb back above $40 billion after V4 to spark a new price rally? Keep an eye on the Q4 upgrade and Ethereum’s performance, since AAVE’s price often moves with Ethereum’s DeFi activity.

What are people saying about AAVE?

The Aave community is divided between cautious technical signals and optimistic bets on decentralized finance (DeFi) bouncing back. Here’s what’s trending:

1. A rising wedge pattern is causing concerns about a possible price drop 🚨
2. “If Ethereum (ETH) surges, AAVE could reach $576” – showing a strong link between ETH and AAVE prices 📈
3. Traders are watching for a breakout above $305 for a short-term price recovery 🎯

Deep Dive

1. @CryptoPulse_CRU: Bearish signals suggest a 15% drop

“Price is forming a rising wedge – a breakdown could push AAVE down to $222–238”
– @CryptoPulse_CRU (12.3K followers · 58K impressions · 2025-09-07 01:30 UTC)
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What this means: This is a bearish sign for AAVE. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), a tool that measures momentum, shows weakening strength even though prices are rising. If AAVE falls below the support level of this pattern, it could trigger forced selling (liquidations).

2. @mkbijaksana: “AAVE follows ETH to the moon or correction”

“If ETH breaks its all-time high (ATH), AAVE could target $399 to $576. If ETH fails, $250 is likely”
– @mkbijaksana (8.7K followers · 34K impressions · 2025-08-24 17:41 UTC)
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What this means: This is a bullish or neutral outlook for AAVE. Since AAVE operates on the Ethereum blockchain, its price often moves in sync with ETH. If Ethereum’s price rises strongly, AAVE could see significant gains.

3. CoinMarketCap Post: Watching $305 breakout

“A recovery above $305 could trigger a 10% rally to $325”
– Trade setup shared 2025-08-17 04:38 UTC (469K views)
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What this means: This is a positive sign for AAVE in the short term. If AAVE’s price climbs above $305, it would challenge the current bearish outlook. However, traders are cautious, placing stop-loss orders at $294 to limit potential losses.

Conclusion

Opinions on AAVE are mixed. Some technical indicators warn of a possible 15% price drop, while others remain optimistic due to Ethereum’s influence and Aave’s strong position in DeFi. Aave controls about $24 billion in total value locked (TVL) and is expanding on the Aptos blockchain, which could support long-term growth. Keep an eye on the $222–238 support zone and Ethereum’s price movements—if ETH breaks key resistance levels, it could help AAVE overcome its bearish signals.

What is the latest news about AAVE?

Aave is managing large investor sell-offs and hitting key milestones in decentralized finance (DeFi), while also focusing on gaining support from big financial institutions.

1. Big Investors Sell $35.5M in AAVE (October 17, 2025) – Large holders sold 158,000 AAVE tokens, causing the price to drop by 11%.
2. Visa Highlights Aave in $670 Billion Stablecoin Plan (October 17, 2025) – Visa’s report features Aave as a key platform for programmable lending.
3. Aave Joins $1.4 Billion Token Buyback Trend (October 17, 2025) – Aave is buying back tokens as part of a wider crypto strategy to reduce supply.

Deep Dive

1. Big Investors Sell $35.5M in AAVE (October 17, 2025)

What happened: Two large holders, often called “whales,” sold 158,227 AAVE tokens worth $35.5 million in one day. This caused the price to fall by about 11.5% to $210. One whale sold to avoid a forced sale (liquidation) on a borrowed position, while the other moved tokens to Binance after losing $5 million on paper. Over three days, 30,000 AAVE tokens were sent to exchanges, indicating some panic among regular investors.

Why it matters: This sell-off shows caution in the market amid overall weakness, with AAVE’s price dropping more than Bitcoin’s 6.76% decline. Still, Aave’s core strength remains solid, with over $40 billion locked in its platform. This suggests the sell-off is more about reducing risk than a fundamental problem. (AMBcrypto, Decrypt)

2. Visa Highlights Aave in $670 Billion Stablecoin Plan (October 17, 2025)

What happened: Visa released a report that spotlights Aave as a leader in the $670 billion stablecoin lending market. The report notes that Aave and one other platform control 89% of this market. Visa envisions Aave enabling around-the-clock lending services for over 15,000 banks using blockchain technology. In August 2025 alone, $51.7 billion in stablecoin loans were made.

Why it matters: Visa’s endorsement is a big vote of confidence for Aave’s role in connecting traditional finance with blockchain technology. However, most of the lending volume depends on just two stablecoins, which could be risky if regulators crack down on issuers like USDC. (CryptoSlate)

3. Aave Joins $1.4 Billion Token Buyback Trend (October 17, 2025)

What happened: In 2025, Aave spent $20.86 million buying back 12.9% of its tokens. This is part of a larger $1.4 billion buyback trend in the crypto space, led by projects like Hyperliquid ($645 million) and LayerZero ($150 million). These buybacks are driven by decentralized autonomous organizations (DAOs) managing their funds and reacting to market ups and downs after 2024.

Why it matters: Token buybacks show confidence in Aave’s economic model, known as “Aavenomics.” However, they also suggest the project is relying on reducing token supply to boost value, as organic demand slows. The upcoming V4 upgrade in the fourth quarter could help increase usage again. (Yahoo Finance)

Conclusion

Aave is facing short-term challenges from large investors selling off tokens but maintains strong long-term prospects thanks to Visa’s support and strategic buybacks. With Bitcoin holding 58.6% of the market and other cryptocurrencies struggling, Aave’s partnerships with institutions could help it overcome liquidity challenges in DeFi. Keep an eye on the $209 price support level and progress on the V4 testnet for signs of where Aave is headed next.

What is expected in the development of AAVE?

Aave is moving forward with some important updates:

1. Aave V4 Mainnet Launch (Q4 2025) – A new modular system that connects liquidity across markets and lets users customize lending and borrowing options.
2. V4 Testnet Deployment (October 2025) – A testing phase to make sure everything works smoothly before the full launch.
3. GHO Stablecoin Expansion to Aptos (2025) – Bringing Aave’s stablecoin to a new blockchain called Aptos to reach more users.

In-Depth Look

1. Aave V4 Mainnet Launch (Q4 2025)

What’s new?
Aave V4 will use a “hub-and-spoke” design. Think of the “hub” as a central pool of funds shared across different markets (“spokes”) that can be customized for different lending and borrowing needs (Cointelegraph). This replaces the older system where markets were separate and less connected. Features include flexible risk settings, smarter liquidation processes to protect users, and the ability to bundle multiple actions into one transaction to save time and fees.

Why it matters:
By pooling liquidity, Aave could attract bigger investors like institutions and make better use of available funds. But if there are delays in security checks or approvals, the launch might be pushed back.

2. V4 Testnet Deployment (October 2025)

What’s happening?
The testnet is a trial version where developers and users can try out the new features like creating custom markets and managing liquidity. Aave Labs has already updated the code and started security reviews with multiple firms, including formal verification to ensure the system is safe (Governance Update).

Why it matters:
A successful testnet will build trust that V4 is secure and works well. But if serious bugs are found, the full launch could be delayed.

3. GHO Stablecoin Expansion to Aptos (2025)

What’s happening?
After launching Aave V3 on the Aptos blockchain in June 2025, Aave plans to bring its stablecoin, GHO, to Aptos as well. Aptos is a newer blockchain that isn’t based on Ethereum’s technology, which helps Aave reach more users and ecosystems.

Why it matters:
This move could increase GHO’s use because Aptos can handle lots of transactions quickly. However, GHO will face competition from other stablecoins and must navigate regulatory challenges.

Conclusion

Aave’s future depends on how well V4 launches and how widely GHO spreads across different blockchains. The new modular design aims to attract institutional investors and integrate real-world assets. The big question is whether unifying liquidity will help Aave grow its total value locked (TVL) in a competitive decentralized finance (DeFi) market.

What updates are there in the AAVE code base?

Aave’s latest updates focus on expanding across multiple blockchains, improving tools for developers, and managing risks better.

1. V3 Ink Market Deployment (October 15, 2025) – Launched the first customizable lending market on Ink Layer 2.
2. V3 Plasma Market Launch (September 25, 2025) – Expanded lending services to Plasma, a fast and low-cost network.
3. V3 Developer Toolkit (August 6, 2025) – Released easy-to-use software tools for building DeFi apps.
4. Horizon RWA Instance (August 27, 2025) – Created a secure market for institutions to borrow stablecoins using real-world assets on Ethereum.

Deep Dive

1. V3 Ink Market Deployment (October 15, 2025)

Overview: Aave introduced its first whitelabel lending market on Ink, a Layer 2 blockchain designed to reduce transaction costs and increase speed. This allows other platforms to create their own lending pools with customized settings like collateral requirements and interest rates, while still benefiting from Aave’s core security features. The code is optimized for Ink’s network to save on transaction fees and support cross-chain interactions.
What this means: This is positive for AAVE because it helps the protocol reach more users, opens new revenue opportunities through licensing, and strengthens Aave’s role as a key infrastructure provider in decentralized finance (DeFi). (Source)

2. V3 Plasma Market Launch (September 25, 2025)

Overview: Aave expanded its lending services to Plasma, another Ethereum Layer 2 network known for high transaction speeds and low fees. The integration supports features like gasless transactions and batch processing, making it cheaper and faster for users. Initially, asset limits were set conservatively at $1 million per asset but were increased after launch due to demand.
What this means: This update is neutral for AAVE—it improves user access and experience but requires watching how many users adopt it. More cross-chain activity could increase fees earned by the protocol. (Source)

3. V3 Developer Toolkit (August 6, 2025)

Overview: Aave released a set of developer tools including React hooks, TypeScript software development kits (SDKs), and a GraphQL API. These tools simplify complex tasks like checking liquidity or executing flash loans by providing easy-to-use functions. The release also includes clear documentation with code samples and video tutorials.
What this means: This is good news for AAVE because it lowers the technical barrier for developers, encouraging more innovation and growth in the Aave ecosystem. (Source)

4. Horizon RWA Instance (August 27, 2025)

Overview: Horizon launched a permissioned lending market on Ethereum where institutions can borrow stablecoins by using real-world assets (RWAs) as collateral. The system enforces compliance with regulations like KYC (Know Your Customer) and AML (Anti-Money Laundering) through multisignature approvals. It also uses Chainlink oracles to accurately value these assets. Fees generated benefit AAVE token holders.
What this means: This is a strong positive for AAVE as it diversifies income sources, attracts institutional investors, and increases the use of Aave’s GHO stablecoin. (Source)

Conclusion

Aave’s code is evolving to be more modular, support institutional users, and expand across multiple blockchain networks. The new Ink and Plasma markets, along with Horizon’s focus on real-world assets, position AAVE as a foundational platform for both everyday users and regulated financial institutions. With the upcoming V4 “hub-and-spoke” design planned for late 2025, the big question is whether Aave can keep growing its total value locked (TVL) by over 40% despite increasing competition.