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What could affect the price of PENDLE?

The future price of Pendle (PENDLE) depends on new DeFi yield products, large investor activity, and upcoming regulatory decisions.

  1. Protocol Upgrades – The Boros upgrade launching in November 2025 aims to tap into the $150 billion crypto derivatives market.
  2. Whale Accumulation – Large holders added about 6.37 million PENDLE tokens (worth around $17.7 million) last week.
  3. Regulatory Changes – The SEC’s decision on the HBAR ETF by November 12 could influence overall altcoin market sentiment.

Deep Dive

1. Protocol Expansion & Yield Innovation (Positive Outlook)

Overview: Pendle’s upcoming Boros upgrade, set for November 2025, will introduce perpetual futures yield trading. This feature targets the massive $150 billion crypto derivatives market. Alongside this, the Citadels platform (expected in Q3 2025) will offer a KYC-compliant portal designed for institutional investors, potentially bringing in new capital. Recently, Pendle’s total value locked (TVL) jumped past $318 million within just four days after integrating Plume’s real-world asset (RWA) vaults (Plume Relaunch).

What this means: Boros will expand Pendle’s sources of yield beyond traditional staking and DeFi products, which could increase fee revenue (currently about $56.8 million annually). Institutional investors using Citadels may lock up more PENDLE tokens for governance purposes, reducing the circulating supply (already 37% of tokens are locked).

2. Whale Activity & Market Liquidity (Mixed Impact)

Overview: Large Pendle holders owning between 100,000 and 1 million tokens increased their holdings by 7.64% last week, now holding about 2.86 million PENDLE (Yahoo Finance). However, some yield strategies that rely on borrowing against Pendle tokens face risks if borrowing costs rise sharply. This was seen during the Balancer hack, which caused a DeFi liquidity squeeze and forced some lenders to unwind risky positions (CryptoFrontNews).

What this means: Large buyers help support Pendle’s price in the short term (for example, holding a $2.50 price floor since November 4). But if Ethereum’s price becomes volatile again, highly leveraged positions could trigger forced sales, putting downward pressure on the price.

3. Macro Policy & Regulatory Catalysts (Neutral to Slightly Negative)

Overview: The release of October’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on November 13 and the SEC’s decision on Grayscale’s HBAR ETF by November 12 are key events that could affect risk appetite across the crypto market. Pendle’s partnerships with regulated real-world asset providers like Plume help reduce some regulatory risks but also expose the project to traditional finance scrutiny (MEXC News).

What this means: If the CPI shows inflation is under control (core CPI below 3%), it might encourage expectations of interest rate cuts, which could boost DeFi assets like Pendle. On the other hand, if the SEC rejects the ETF, it could prolong negative sentiment in the crypto market, which is currently cautious (the Crypto Fear & Greed Index stands at 25).

Conclusion

Pendle’s outlook depends heavily on the adoption of the Boros upgrade and how macroeconomic factors like inflation data play out. Large investors are providing short-term price support, but risks remain from leveraged DeFi positions and regulatory uncertainties.

Key points to watch: Will Boros maintain trading volumes above $100 million in its first week? And will the SEC’s November 12 decision support the future of altcoin exchange-traded products (ETPs)?

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What are people saying about PENDLE?

The Pendle community is currently balancing excitement about potential profits with careful attention to risks. Here’s what’s making headlines:

  1. Big investors are buying in, showing confidence in Pendle’s decentralized finance (DeFi) system.
  2. Technical analysis suggests Pendle’s price could jump between $29 and $160.
  3. Total Value Locked (TVL) has surged to $7.7 billion, supporting positive price momentum.

Deep Dive

1. @SpotOnChain: Arca-linked wallet buys $8.3M worth of PENDLE

“An Arca-associated wallet bought 2.18 million PENDLE tokens ($8.3 million) over six days without selling any.”
– SpotOnChain (210K followers · 1.2M impressions · 2025-06-20 15:35 UTC)
View original post
What this means: This is a positive sign for PENDLE because large purchases by institutional investors suggest they believe in Pendle’s approach to generating yield through tokenization. However, having a few wallets hold large amounts can also lead to price swings.

2. @MichaelEWPro: Elliott Wave analysis points to $29+

“PENDLE is entering the third wave of Elliott Wave analysis, with Fibonacci levels indicating a target price of $29.25.”
– MichaelEWPro (3K followers · 280K impressions · 2025-06-09 18:30 UTC)
View analysis
What this means: From a technical perspective, this is optimistic, but it depends on Pendle staying above $4. If the price falls below $3.60, this bullish pattern could be invalidated.

3. @johnmorganFL: TVL growth supports 30% price rally

“Pendle’s price jumped 30% as its Total Value Locked (TVL) reached $7.7 billion, supporting the upward price movement.”
– John Morgan (35K followers · 650K impressions · 2025-08-08 16:40 UTC)
View tweet
What this means: A rising TVL usually means more users and activity on the platform, which is good for PENDLE’s price. However, since Pendle relies on Ethena’s USDe integration, there is some risk if that partner faces issues.

Conclusion

The overall outlook for PENDLE is optimistic but cautious. Institutional buying and strong technical signals are promising, but the high leverage involved in DeFi strategies means risks remain. Watch the $3.60 to $4.50 price range closely for signs of a breakout or breakdown. Also, keep an eye on Pendle’s TVL-to-market-cap ratio, currently at 0.126, to gauge the protocol’s health. The big question is whether Pendle’s innovative yield strategies can justify its more than 50% drop from 2024 highs.


What is the latest news about PENDLE?

Pendle is managing big investor activity and growing interest from traditional finance while pushing the boundaries of decentralized finance (DeFi) yield opportunities.

  1. Whales Bought $17.7M in PENDLE (Nov 12, 2025) – Large investors made strategic purchases ahead of an important economic report, showing confidence in Pendle’s approach to yield tokenization.
  2. Launch of nBASIS Vault (Nov 6, 2025) – Integration of real-world asset yields, like treasury bills, into Pendle’s DeFi platform attracts institutional investors.
  3. 21Shares Lists Pendle ETP (Oct 28, 2025) – The first regulated investment product for Pendle on a major European exchange boosts its credibility with traditional finance.

Deep Dive

1. Whales Bought $17.7M in PENDLE (November 12, 2025)

Overview: Large investors, often called “whales,” purchased about 6.57 million PENDLE tokens, worth roughly $17.7 million, during the week ending November 12. This buying coincided with a 6.5% price increase to $2.66. Indicators like the Money Flow Index suggest more money is coming into Pendle, even though the token is down 50% so far this year.

What this means: The buying near the $2.50 price level suggests these big investors believe Pendle is undervalued, especially given its role in yield trading. However, for the price to keep rising, it needs to break through a resistance level at $3.37. (Yahoo Finance)

2. Launch of nBASIS Vault (November 6, 2025)

Overview: Pendle added the nBASIS vault from Nest Protocol, which allows users to earn yields from real-world assets like government treasury bills through Ethereum-based DeFi. The vault quickly reached $318 million in total value locked (TVL) within four days, showing strong interest from institutional investors looking for compliant yield options.

What this means: This development connects traditional finance yields with DeFi’s liquidity and flexibility, expanding Pendle’s offerings beyond just cryptocurrency assets. However, using real-world assets comes with risks like regulatory challenges and the need for clear transparency about the assets backing the yields. (CoinMarketCap)

3. 21Shares Lists Pendle ETP (October 28, 2025)

Overview: 21Shares, a well-known asset manager, launched Europe’s first Pendle exchange-traded product (ETP) on the SIX Swiss Exchange. This regulated product gives investors a way to gain exposure to Pendle’s yield-tokenization ecosystem through traditional financial markets.

What this means: Making Pendle accessible to institutional investors could help reduce its price volatility over time. However, it also means Pendle’s price may become more linked to traditional market movements. The success of this ETP depends on Pendle continuing to handle a large volume of yield settlements, currently over $4.4 billion annually. (CoinMarketCap)

Conclusion

Pendle’s recent activity—from whale buying and real-world asset integrations to traditional finance investment products—positions it as a leader in DeFi yield innovation during uncertain market conditions. While technical signals suggest potential price gains, Pendle’s future depends on its ability to grow real-world yield products and manage smart contract risks. The key question remains: can Pendle keep increasing its total value locked as broader economic factors continue to pressure crypto yields?


What is expected in the development of PENDLE?

Pendle’s roadmap is focused on attracting institutional users, creating new ways to earn yield, and growing its overall ecosystem.

  1. Boros Expansion (Q4 2025) – Introducing perpetual futures yield markets.
  2. Citadels Launch (2026) – Offering KYC and Sharia-compliant yield products for institutions.
  3. vePENDLE Airdrop (Dec 31, 2025) – Rewarding users who lock their tokens long-term.
  4. Multi-Chain Growth (Ongoing) – Expanding to blockchains like Solana, TON, and HyperEVM.

Deep Dive

1. Boros Expansion (Q4 2025)

What it is: Boros is Pendle’s platform for yield derivatives—financial products that let users earn returns based on other assets. The upcoming expansion will add perpetual futures markets, focusing on funding rates for Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH). These markets will have capped leverage (up to 1.2x) and limits on open interest ($10 million) to manage risk (NullTX).
Why it matters: This move could bring in new revenue streams beyond traditional yield products, which is positive for PENDLE. However, success depends on smooth integration with major centralized exchanges like Binance and Bybit.

2. Citadels Launch (2026)

What it is: Citadels will provide regulated yield products tailored for institutional investors, including options that comply with Sharia law and tokenized treasury bonds. This aligns with Pendle’s growth in pools focused on real-world assets (RWA), such as thBILL, which has over $1 billion in total value locked (Theo Network).
Why it matters: This could attract steady institutional investments, helping stabilize PENDLE’s value. However, regulatory hurdles and slower onboarding processes might delay the impact.

3. vePENDLE Airdrop (Dec 31, 2025)

What it is: On December 31, 2025, Pendle will take a snapshot to identify holders of vePENDLE tokens (tokens locked for the long term). Eligible users will receive a retroactive airdrop that includes accumulated protocol fees and rewards from Boros activity. Note that tokens locked through third parties won’t qualify (Weex).
Why it matters: This is likely to encourage more users to lock their tokens before the snapshot, which is positive in the short term. However, if many users unlock their tokens afterward, it could put downward pressure on prices.

4. Multi-Chain Growth (Ongoing)

What it is: Pendle is expanding beyond Ethereum by integrating with other blockchains. Its HyperEVM integration reached $515 million in total value locked within 2.5 weeks. Plans are underway to launch on Solana and TON by mid-2026. Recent support for BeraChain has improved cross-chain swaps using Stargate technology (Pendle).
Why it matters: Expanding to multiple blockchains can attract more users, but it also risks spreading liquidity thin. The success of this strategy depends on transaction fees and partnerships with network validators.

Conclusion

Pendle is working to combine decentralized finance (DeFi) yield strategies with institutional demand through initiatives like Boros, Citadels, and multi-chain support. The upcoming vePENDLE airdrop provides immediate incentives for users to stay engaged, while real-world asset integrations strengthen its competitive position. With total value locked recovering to $9.3 billion after recent outflows, the key question is whether Pendle can maintain its role as a “fixed-income backbone” in DeFi amid growing competition from projects like EigenLayer.


What updates are there in the PENDLE code base?

Pendle’s codebase received important updates in the fourth quarter of 2025, focusing on improving cross-chain technology and making the user experience smoother.

  1. Multi-Feature Rollout (Nov 7, 2025) – Added a bridge aggregator, an AI assistant, and easier deposit/withdrawal processes.
  2. Tharwa Mainnet Preparation (Oct 31, 2025) – Completed an open-source adapter ready for mainnet launch.
  3. Backend Overhaul (Feb 19, 2024) – Shifted from using an SDK to a backend focused on calldata for better integration.

Deep Dive

1. Multi-Feature Rollout (Nov 7, 2025)

Overview: Pendle launched five new features to make cross-chain swaps easier, help users learn about yield strategies, and simplify managing liquidity.

What this means: These improvements make Pendle more user-friendly, help users manage their funds more efficiently, and boost liquidity across different blockchains. This is important for maintaining Pendle’s leadership with $4.4 billion in total value locked (TVL). (Source)

2. Tharwa Mainnet Preparation (Oct 31, 2025)

Overview: Tharwa UAE finished testing an open-source adapter, preparing for integration with Pendle’s mainnet.

What this means: This update is cautiously positive. It opens the door for more institutional users but its success depends on adoption after launch. (Source)

3. Backend Overhaul (Feb 19, 2024)

Overview: Pendle moved away from using an SDK to a backend system focused on calldata, simplifying how developers build on Pendle.

What this means: This change is neutral in the short term but beneficial long term, as it standardizes integrations. However, developers will need to update their systems to adapt. (Source)

Conclusion

Pendle’s recent updates focus on making the platform easier to use and scalable for both everyday users and institutions. By improving cross-chain efficiency and adding compliance-ready tools, Pendle is positioning itself as a key player in decentralized finance (DeFi) yield infrastructure. The upcoming launch of Boros’ funding-rate tokenization could further strengthen Pendle’s position in 2026.


Why did the price of PENDLE fall?

Pendle (PENDLE) dropped 1.98% in the last 24 hours, underperforming the overall crypto market, which fell just 0.2%. This decline is mainly due to challenges in the DeFi sector, technical price weaknesses, and cautious investor sentiment ahead of upcoming U.S. inflation data.

  1. DeFi Liquidity Pressure – Investors are pulling back from leveraged yield strategies after a recent Balancer hack.
  2. Technical Weakness – Pendle’s price is trading below important moving averages and support levels.
  3. Cautious Market Ahead of CPI – Large investors (whales) are buying PENDLE, but uncertainty about inflation data is limiting price gains.

Deep Dive

1. DeFi Sector Challenges (Negative Impact)

What happened: The DeFi space is experiencing a liquidity squeeze following a $128 million hack on the Balancer protocol (CryptoFront News). This event caused many investors to unwind leveraged positions—such as borrowing stablecoins to buy Pendle’s yield tokens—because borrowing costs jumped by 30–40%.

Why it matters: Pendle’s system depends on steady liquidity to function well. When investors rapidly reduce their leveraged positions, it creates selling pressure on Pendle’s tokens, pushing the price down.

What to watch: The total value locked (TVL) in Pendle’s platform is currently $8.8 billion, which is lower than previous highs, indicating reduced activity.

2. Technical Price Weakness (Bearish Signals)

Current situation: Pendle’s price is $2.66, which is below key moving averages—the 7-day average at $2.73 and the 30-day average at $3.04—and below an important Fibonacci retracement level at $3.57. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 32.94, suggesting the token is oversold but without signs of a price rebound yet.

What this means: Traders see the failure to stay above $2.78 as a negative sign. If the price falls below the $2.50 support level, it could lead to a sharper drop toward $2.00.

Key level: Holding above $2.50 is crucial to avoid further losses.

3. Market Uncertainty & Whale Buying (Mixed Signals)

What’s happening: Large investors, known as whales, have purchased about 6.57 million PENDLE tokens (worth roughly $17.7 million) over the past week (Yahoo Finance). However, overall price gains remain limited as traders remain cautious ahead of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report scheduled for November 13.

Why it matters: Whale buying suggests confidence in Pendle’s long-term value, but short-term traders are hesitant due to economic uncertainty. The crypto Fear & Greed Index is at 25, indicating “Extreme Fear” in the market.

Conclusion

Pendle’s recent price drop is driven by stress in the DeFi sector, technical weaknesses, and cautious sentiment ahead of important inflation data. While large investors are accumulating PENDLE, the immediate focus is on whether the price can hold the $2.50 support level. Key question: Will Pendle’s total value locked recover after the CPI report, or will outflows from DeFi continue to weigh on the token?