Why did the price of ETH go up?
Ethereum (ETH) increased by 1.75% in the past 24 hours, following a modest rebound in the overall crypto market (+0.8% total market cap). However, it lagged behind Bitcoin, which saw a stronger rise in market dominance. The main factors influencing Ethereum’s recent performance are:
- Concerns Over Limited Supply – Exchange reserves have dropped to their lowest levels since 2025 as large investors (“whales”) accumulate ETH.
- Renewed Institutional Interest – Inflows into Ethereum ETFs have resumed after a period of outflows.
- Progress on Network Upgrades – The Fusaka testnet upgrade is moving forward, aiming for a mainnet launch on December 3.
In-Depth Analysis
1. Supply Trends (Positive for Price)
Summary: Ethereum’s reserves held on exchanges have fallen to $60.8 billion, the lowest since 2025, according to AMBCrypto. Over the past week, large holders purchased 138,345 ETH (about $503 million). These big investors now control 14.2 million ETH, the highest level since April.
Why it matters: When fewer coins are available on exchanges, it limits selling pressure. This means even small increases in buying demand can push prices up more sharply. This pattern is similar to what happened before the 2020 bull market.
What to watch: Keep an eye on further drops in exchange reserves and Ethereum’s burn rate, which currently has a turnover ratio of 0.0725.
2. ETF Activity and Market Sentiment (Mixed Effects)
Summary: On October 20, Ethereum spot ETFs saw inflows of $176.6 million, mainly driven by BlackRock’s ETHA fund, reversing three days of outflows. This came as global risk assets rallied following eased trade tensions between the U.S. and China.
Why it matters: Ethereum’s price remains sensitive to broader market trends, with a strong 30-day correlation (0.78) to the S&P 500 index. The renewed ETF demand helps counteract some bearish technical signals, such as a Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 44.58 and a Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) of -33.73.
What to watch: Upcoming trade talks in Malaysia (October 20-22) and potential delays in U.S. inflation data releases could influence market sentiment.
3. Fusaka Upgrade Developments (Positive for Network Growth)
Summary: Ethereum’s Fusaka upgrade recently passed its final testnet checks (Hoodi testnet on October 28) and is scheduled for mainnet launch on December 3. This upgrade introduces PeerDAS, which will increase data capacity by 2 to 3 times—an important improvement for Layer 2 scalability.
Why it matters: Developers consider Fusaka the most significant upgrade since the Dencun update in March 2024. It is expected to lower fees on Layer 2 solutions and improve overall network performance.
What to watch: The success of the Hoodi testnet fork on October 28 is a key milestone.
Summary
Ethereum’s recent price increase reflects a combination of tightening supply, renewed institutional ETF interest, and positive momentum around the Fusaka upgrade. However, some challenges remain, including weak momentum indicators (RSI below 50) and Bitcoin’s strong market dominance at 58.94%.
Key question: Will Ethereum maintain support above $3,900 (the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level) and push toward $4,200, or will broader economic uncertainties lead investors to take profits?
What could affect the price of ETH?
Ethereum’s price is caught between positive developments and ongoing risks.
- Fusaka Upgrade Coming Soon – Improvements to scaling could increase demand, but some solo stakers might leave, which could lead to more centralization.
- ETF Staking Approval on the Horizon – The SEC’s decision on ETH-staking ETFs expected in Q4 2025 could bring big institutional investments.
- Whales Are Buying – Exchange reserves are at their lowest in 2025; large investors added $2.8 billion worth of ETH in six weeks, hinting at a potential supply squeeze.
Deep Dive
1. Protocol Upgrades & Staking Dynamics (Mixed Impact)
What’s happening: The Fusaka upgrade, scheduled for December 3, 2025, will introduce PeerDAS technology to improve Ethereum’s data handling, effectively doubling its capacity. This should help Ethereum scale better and support more decentralized apps (dApps). However, research from Ethereum Research shows that because the upgrade reduces new ETH issuance, solo stakers—who are more sensitive to rewards—might stop staking. This could lead to more staking being done by large, liquid providers like Lido, increasing centralization.
Why it matters: Better scalability is good news for Ethereum’s growth, but if staking becomes too centralized, it could hurt Ethereum’s core value of decentralization.
2. Regulatory Catalysts & ETFs (Bullish)
What’s happening: The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is reviewing proposals for ETH-staking ETFs from firms like BlackRock and VanEck. If approved, these ETFs would allow big investors to earn rewards from staking ETH without directly managing it. This is similar to how Bitcoin ETFs attracted $2.3 billion weekly in October 2025.
Why it matters: Approval could bring over $15 billion in new investments quickly, according to Bloomberg. But if the SEC delays or rejects these ETFs, it could cause short-term price drops.
3. Supply Squeeze & Whale Activity (Bullish)
What’s happening: The amount of ETH held on exchanges has fallen to a low of about $60.8 billion in 2025, as large investors (whales) bought 871,000 ETH in June alone, according to Glassnode. At the same time, derivatives markets show increased activity and positive funding rates, indicating growing bullish sentiment.
Why it matters: With fewer coins available on exchanges and big buyers accumulating, the stage is set for potential price spikes if positive news like ETF approvals or upgrades triggers a buying frenzy.
Conclusion
Ethereum’s price will depend on how well the Fusaka upgrade balances improved scalability with keeping staking decentralized. Meanwhile, the SEC’s decision on staking ETFs in late 2025 could shift market sentiment significantly. The current price range between $3,800 and $4,000 is a key zone to watch. Breaking above $4,200 could signal strong upward momentum, while falling below $3,500 might lead to further declines.
Will Fusaka’s scalability improvements ease centralization concerns, or will ETF approvals take center stage? Keep an eye on the SEC’s November 2025 deadline for staking-ETF decisions.
What are people saying about ETH?
Talk around Ethereum (ETH) swings between excitement over potential gains and caution about possible pullbacks. Big investors, known as whales, are stacking up ETH, and analysts are watching closely as the price eyes the $5,000 mark. Here’s what’s happening now:
- Technical traders are targeting $4,900 and above based on positive chart patterns.
- Institutions are buying through ETFs, with over $1 billion flowing in daily, sparking fear of missing out (FOMO).
- Whales are staking aggressively, locking up $661 million worth of ETH.
- Some warning signs appear despite the overall bullish trend.
Deep Dive
1. @CryptoMobese: Rising Channel Holds Firm (Bullish)
"ETH is holding strong at $3,950 support and aiming for $4,900 in the mid-term, with $5,500 as the next big resistance level."
– @CryptoMobese (189K followers · 2.1M impressions · 2025-09-08 14:43 UTC)
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What this means: Ethereum is showing strength by maintaining a key support level. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), a tool that measures momentum, is at 62, indicating there’s still room for the price to rise before it becomes overbought.
2. @Eliteonchain: Institutional Floodgates Open (Bullish)
"Spot ETFs bought 27,219 ETH (about $116 million) last week, while the amount of ETH held on exchanges dropped by 2.64% — a rare bullish sign not seen since March."
– @Eliteonchain (312K followers · 4.8M impressions · 2025-09-17 15:55 UTC)
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What this means: With fewer coins available for sale on exchanges and strong institutional buying, conditions are favorable for price increases. However, many traders are already betting on higher prices, which could lead to sharp sell-offs if the market shifts.
3. @Cipher2X: Whale Staking Spree (Bullish)
"150,000 ETH (worth $661 million) was staked this week — the largest single staking event since the Shanghai upgrade."
– @Cipher2X (84K followers · 1.2M impressions · 2025-09-05 12:05 UTC)
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What this means: Big investors are locking up their ETH for the long term, which is a positive sign. Currently, over 34 million ETH are staked. However, this reduces the amount of ETH available for trading, which can affect market liquidity.
4. @mkbijaksana: Divergence Dilemma (Cautious)
"ETH hit resistance at $5,000 but showed bearish RSI divergence — the overall structure is still intact, but momentum is slowing."
– @mkbijaksana (56K followers · 890K impressions · 2025-08-27 01:28 UTC)
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What this means: There’s a warning that Ethereum could pull back 10-15% if it falls below $4,500, though the longer-term upward trend remains valid.
Conclusion
Most experts remain optimistic, with institutions and whales supporting Ethereum’s price above $4,500. However, some technical indicators suggest the market might be overheated. Keep an eye on the $4,300–$4,500 range — if ETF inflows continue, ETH could push toward $5,000. But if it breaks down, support at $3,950 will be tested. Also, consider whether Ethereum’s staking yield (currently 3.8%) will attract enough investment to balance out risks from derivatives trading.
What is the latest news about ETH?
Ethereum is managing supply shortages and technical improvements while watching for supportive regulatory changes.
- Exchange Reserves Drop to 2025 Lows (October 20, 2025) – Big investors are buying more ETH, reducing the amount available on exchanges.
- Kimchi Premium Raises Caution (October 19, 2025) – In South Korea, retail buyers are pushing ETH prices up by 8.2%, a level that has historically signaled caution.
- Fusaka Upgrade Scheduled for December (September 19, 2025) – A major update aimed at improving Ethereum’s scalability and lowering costs is set for December.
In-Depth Look
1. Exchange Reserves Drop to 2025 Lows (October 20, 2025)
Summary:
Ethereum’s supply held on exchanges fell to $60.8 billion, the lowest since January 2025. Large holders, often called “whales,” are moving their ETH to offline storage for safety. This week, whale wallets bought over 200,000 ETH (about $800 million) on spot markets, a pattern similar to what happened before Ethereum’s big price rise in 2020. Traders in derivatives markets reopened positions after recent liquidations, with open interest steady at $19.1 billion and funding rates turning positive.
What this means:
With less ETH available on exchanges and growing demand, prices could rise due to limited supply. However, current momentum is weak, and prices are stuck between $3,800 and $4,000. For a strong upward move, watch for continued whale buying and inflows from Ethereum ETFs to confirm a bullish trend. (AMBCrypto)
2. Kimchi Premium Raises Caution (October 19, 2025)
Summary:
Ethereum is trading at an 8.2% higher price on South Korean exchanges like Upbit compared to other markets. This “Kimchi Premium” is the second highest this year. Historically, such price gaps have been followed by large investors selling off their holdings, which caused a 15% price drop earlier this year. Experts warn that traders might take advantage of this price difference, increasing selling pressure.
What this means:
While retail enthusiasm in South Korea is positive in the short term, the premium’s past link to price drops suggests caution. Ethereum’s inability to break above the $4,200 resistance level and flat on-chain trading volume also point to potential risks ahead. (NewsBTC)
3. Fusaka Upgrade Scheduled for December (September 19, 2025)
Summary:
Ethereum’s Fusaka hard fork is planned for December 3, 2025, following successful testnet trials. This upgrade will introduce PeerDAS technology, increasing the number of data blobs per block from 6 to 21. The goal is to cut Layer 2 transaction costs by 40% and boost network speed to 12,000 transactions per second (TPS) by 2026.
What this means:
This technical upgrade supports Ethereum’s focus on rollups, which help scale the network efficiently. It could attract more developers who have been discouraged by high fees. However, the increased storage needs might favor larger, institutional validators, which could lead to more centralization. (CryptoGucci)
Conclusion
Ethereum is balancing strong fundamentals like supply shortages and growing institutional interest with technical resistance and risks from retail speculation. The upcoming Fusaka upgrade and potential regulatory easing around ETFs could boost momentum. Traders are watching closely to see if whale buying can overcome the bearish signals from the Kimchi Premium and push prices above $4,200.
What is expected in the development of ETH?
Ethereum’s development is moving forward with key updates:
- Fusaka Upgrade (December 3, 2025) – Improves scalability by increasing data capacity for Layer 2 solutions.
- Quantum Resistance Preparation (2026 and beyond) – Upgrades cryptography to protect against future quantum computing threats.
- Native Rollups & zkEVM Integration (2026) – Introduces trustless Layer 2s with instant zero-knowledge proof withdrawals.
In-Depth Look
1. Fusaka Upgrade (December 3, 2025)
What it is:
The Fusaka hard fork adds PeerDAS (Peer Data Availability Sampling), which increases the amount of data that can be processed per block from 6/9 blobs to 14/21 blobs. This boost allows Layer 2 rollups like Arbitrum and Base to handle around 12,000 transactions per second by 2026. Test networks such as Holešky, Sepolia, and Hoodi will start testing these upgrades in October 2025 (CryptoGucci).
Why it matters:
This upgrade is positive for Ethereum’s usefulness because lower fees on Layer 2 attract more decentralized apps (dApps) and users. However, there is a risk that validators (those who confirm transactions) could become more centralized if the storage requirements grow too much.
2. Quantum Resistance Preparation (2026 and beyond)
What it is:
Ethereum’s "Lean Ethereum" plan focuses on adding post-quantum cryptography to protect the network from future quantum computer attacks. This means replacing current signature methods (ECDSA) with quantum-resistant alternatives like STARKs, which help keep the network secure over the long term (Ethereum Lean Plan).
Why it matters:
This is a neutral to positive development because it addresses a serious future threat. However, implementing these changes is complex and could face delays if new cryptographic standards emerge.
3. Native Rollups & zkEVM Integration (2026)
What it is:
Ethereum plans to move away from optimistic rollups toward "Stage 4" Native Rollups that use zero-knowledge proofs. This removes the need for multisignature setups, allows real-time transaction inclusion, and integrates zkEVM directly at Layer 1 for instant withdrawals (ESS Framework).
Why it matters:
This upgrade supports decentralization and strengthens Layer 2 security. Still, fully relying on native assets is challenging since about 70% of current Layer 2 total value locked (TVL) depends on external bridges.
Conclusion
Ethereum’s roadmap carefully balances immediate scalability improvements (Fusaka), long-term security (quantum resistance), and a shift to zero-knowledge native infrastructure. By focusing on modularity (Layer 1 security combined with Layer 2 speed) and improving the developer experience (simpler nodes and lower gas fees), Ethereum aims to keep its lead in smart contract platforms.
Will Ethereum’s leaner, faster design outpace competitors like Solana in the growing multi-chain landscape?
What updates are there in the ETH code base?
Ethereum’s software updates are focused on making the network faster, more efficient, and more secure.
- Gas Limit Increase (June 30, 2025) – Software upgrades raise the gas limit to 45 million, allowing more transactions per block.
- Fusaka Upgrade Preparation (September 19, 2025) – Testing begins for a new system called PeerDAS that improves data handling for Layer 2 solutions.
- Ethrex Client Updates (October 11, 2025) – Improvements to syncing and fee calculations enhance performance for both Layer 1 and Layer 2 networks.
In-Depth Look
1. Gas Limit Increase (June 30, 2025)
What’s happening: Ethereum validators, who confirm transactions, can now process more transactions in each block. The gas limit—the measure of how much work can be done per block—has been raised from 30 million to 45 million thanks to updates in popular Ethereum software clients like Geth and Nethermind.
This means blocks can handle about 15% more transactions, which helps reduce network slowdowns and could lower transaction fees during busy times. Validators need to update their software to support this change. The increase is designed to improve capacity without putting too much strain on hardware.
Why it matters: This is good news for Ethereum (ETH) because it supports more users and applications running smoothly. People using the network may experience faster transaction confirmations, though those running validator nodes should keep an eye on their system performance. (Source)
2. Fusaka Upgrade Preparation (September 19, 2025)
What’s happening: The Fusaka upgrade, planned for December 2025, will introduce Peer Data Availability Sampling (PeerDAS). This technology increases the amount of “blob” data blocks can carry, which is important for Layer 2 networks that handle transactions off the main Ethereum chain to improve speed and reduce costs.
After the upgrade, the number of blobs per block will roughly double, allowing Layer 2 solutions to process more data efficiently. Before the full upgrade, test networks like Holešky, Sepolia, and Hoodi will start running Fusaka in October 2025 to make sure everything works smoothly.
Why it matters: This upgrade is positive for ETH because it enables cheaper and faster Layer 2 transactions, making Ethereum more scalable. Developers should get ready to test their applications on the updated testnets, and users can expect lower fees over time. (Source)
3. Ethrex Client Updates (October 11, 2025)
What’s happening: The Ethrex client, a software used to interact with Ethereum, has been updated to improve how it syncs with the blockchain, especially during chain reorganizations (when the blockchain temporarily forks). It also now supports native tokens on Layer 2 networks.
The update changes how gas fees are calculated by separating operator fees from Layer 1 settlement costs, aiming for fairer pricing. Additionally, improvements to trie data structures help boost performance for zero-knowledge proofs, which are important for privacy and security.
Why it matters: While this update doesn’t directly affect ETH’s price, it’s important for developers and node operators. It makes running nodes more reliable and supports more flexible token models on Layer 2. Users benefit indirectly through a more stable and efficient network. (Source)
Conclusion
Ethereum is actively improving its network by focusing on scalability (with Fusaka), efficiency (with the gas limit increase), and better developer tools (with Ethrex updates). These changes help Ethereum remain a strong platform for decentralized applications. The big question now is: how quickly will Layer 2 adoption grow with these improvements in data capacity?