Why did the price of TON fall?
Toncoin (TON) dropped 7.95% to $2.82 over the past 24 hours, falling more than the overall cryptocurrency market, which declined by 3.48%. Three main factors influenced this move:
- Technical breakdown – TON fell below a key support level at $3.10
- Whale dominance – Large holders control 68% of TON’s supply
- Market rotation – Investors shifted funds from altcoins to Bitcoin, increasing Bitcoin’s market share
1. Technical Breakdown (Negative Impact)
TON’s price fell below an important support level at $3.10, which is tied to a common technical analysis tool called the Fibonacci retracement. It also dropped below its 200-day moving average, a key indicator used to assess long-term trends. This triggered automated sell orders. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), which measures momentum, is at 40.32, indicating bearish momentum but not yet oversold conditions.
What this means: Traders who rely on technical signals sold their TON holdings after these breakdowns, and stop-loss orders (automatic sell orders to limit losses) were triggered. The next important support level is at $2.78. If TON falls below this, it could continue dropping toward its June low of $2.50.
2. Whale Concentration Risk (Mixed Impact)
According to CoinMarketCap data, large holders, often called “whales,” control 68% of TON’s total supply, but less than 20% of this is held long-term.
What this means: When a few large holders control most of a cryptocurrency, it can lead to increased price swings, especially during market downturns. The recent 24-hour trading volume surged by 208% to $317 million, suggesting these whales might be selling some of their holdings. However, some see this as whales buying more near support levels.
3. Altcoin Weakness (Negative Impact)
Bitcoin’s dominance—the percentage of the total crypto market it represents—increased to 57.81%, up 0.74% in the last 24 hours. This shows investors are moving money from alternative cryptocurrencies (altcoins) like TON into Bitcoin. TON’s price drop of 7.95% was sharper than the overall crypto market’s 3.48% decline.
What this means: Due to uncertainty around potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts (Weex News), traders preferred Bitcoin, which is often seen as a safer asset. TON’s higher volatility (1.6 times the market average) caused it to fall more during this risk-off period.
Conclusion
TON’s recent price decline is driven by a combination of technical factors, large holders’ trading activity, and a broader shift away from altcoins toward Bitcoin. The $2.78 support level and Bitcoin’s market stability will be key to watch in the near term. The big question is whether TON can stay above its 2025 low of $2.50 if market sentiment worsens.
What could affect the price of TON?
Toncoin is caught between two forces: the growth of Telegram’s platform and the price swings caused by large holders.
- Ecosystem Growth – Telegram’s 1 billion users and new DeFi partnerships are positive signs.
- Whale Concentration – 68% of Toncoin is held by a few big players, which could cause price drops.
- Fed Rate Cuts – A possible interest rate cut might add liquidity, but its impact is uncertain.
Deep Dive
1. Telegram Integration & DeFi Growth (Positive Outlook)
Toncoin is closely linked with Telegram, which has over 900 million users worldwide. This connection makes it easier for people to use Toncoin for crypto payments, gaming through TON Station, and transferring USDT (a popular stablecoin). Recently, Toncoin partnered with Curve Finance and launched a $5 million rewards program to encourage more activity in decentralized finance (DeFi).
Why it matters: Having direct access to Telegram’s huge user base could increase the number of transactions and demand for staking Toncoin. Since Toncoin is used to pay fees for USDT transfers and gaming apps, this creates real-world uses that can support its price.
2. Risks from Large Holders (Potential Downside)
More than 68% of Toncoin’s total supply is owned by a small group of large holders, often called “whales.” Only about 20% of the supply is held by long-term investors (CoinMarketCap). When whales decide to sell, it has historically caused big price swings of 30-50%.
Why it matters: Because the market for Toncoin isn’t very liquid, if whales sell off their holdings, the price could drop sharply. Right now, Toncoin’s support level is around $2.80 (current price: $2.83). If it falls below this, it could trigger a chain reaction of sell-offs. However, Toncoin’s $400 million treasury is designed to help stabilize the market by encouraging staking and reducing supply volatility.
3. Impact of Federal Reserve Rate Cuts (Uncertain)
The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by 0.25% on September 18, which could add over $5 billion in liquidity to riskier assets like cryptocurrencies. Despite this, Toncoin’s technical indicators show weak momentum: its 7-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is 31 (close to oversold), and the MACD indicator is negative.
Why it matters: While rate cuts usually boost crypto prices, Toncoin has underperformed Bitcoin by 17% over the past month. This means it might not benefit as much unless positive news about its ecosystem offsets the technical weakness.
Conclusion
Toncoin’s price will depend on whether Telegram’s growing user base can generate enough demand to outweigh selling pressure from large holders. The price range between $2.70 and $3.10 is key. Staying above $3.10 (the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level) could push the price toward $3.50, while falling below $2.70 risks a drop to $2.50. Keep an eye on the Federal Reserve’s decision and user growth on TON Station for clues about Toncoin’s next move: Can Telegram’s push into Web3 overcome the current cautious mood in crypto?
What are people saying about TON?
Toncoin’s connection to Telegram is creating optimism, but big holders (whales) and key price levels are making traders cautious. Here’s what’s happening:
- Telegram’s ecosystem is driving hopes for a $5 price
- 68% of Toncoin is held by whales, raising concerns about price swings
- A rising wedge pattern suggests a possible 50% price move soon
Deep Dive
1. @CobakOfficial: Ecosystem growth looks positive
“Even with the market down, Toncoin gained 4% in a day and surged 24% over the month to $3.61. Key updates point to a strong future.”
– @CobakOfficial (1.2M followers · 850K impressions · 2025-08-02 19:00 UTC)
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What this means: This is good news for Toncoin because Telegram’s huge user base (over 1 billion users) and growing Web3 features like payments and NFTs could boost adoption. However, the current price ($2.83) is still 65% below its all-time high of $8.20.
2. CoinMarketCap: Whale concentration is a risk
“68% of Toncoin supply is held by whales, and less than 20% are long-term holders. The recent 65% drop from the all-time high shows how vulnerable it is to big sell-offs.”
– CoinMarketCap community post (June 27, 2025)
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What this means: This is a warning sign because when a few holders control most of the coins, they can cause big price swings by selling large amounts. Plus, daily trading volume is only $317 million compared to a $7.2 billion market cap, which means liquidity is limited.
3. @ali_charts: Technical outlook is uncertain
“Toncoin is trading within a triangle pattern, waiting for a big move. If it breaks above $3.55, it could reach $4.30; if it falls below $3.39, it might test $2.60.”
– @ali_charts (478K followers · 1.1M impressions · 2025-09-02 07:58 UTC)
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What this means: The outlook is neutral until Toncoin breaks out decisively. The $2.80 level (close to the current $2.83 price) is key support. Holding this level could confirm a bullish reversal pattern seen earlier this year.
Conclusion
Opinions on Toncoin are mixed. Telegram’s growth and support from big investors like Coinbase Ventures (announced August 11, 2025) show promise, but the fact that whales hold 68% of the supply adds risk. Keep an eye on the $2.80 support level and the upcoming $400 million Toncoin Treasury deployment in September. This fund could either help stabilize prices or cause more selling if not managed well.
What is the latest news about TON?
Toncoin is growing alongside Telegram’s expanding user base and attracting big investors, but it still faces price swings. Here are the latest updates:
- Daily Combo Boost (September 19, 2025) – A new game rewards Telegram users, encouraging more activity.
- Coinbase Ventures Invests (September 10, 2025) – A major venture capital firm backs Toncoin’s push for wider use.
- $558 Million Private Funding (September 13, 2025) – A large investment aims to stabilize Toncoin’s supply through a treasury fund.
Deep Dive
1. Daily Combo Boost (September 19, 2025)
What happened:
TON Station introduced a Daily Combo challenge on Telegram where users solve 4-card puzzles to earn SOON Points, which can be exchanged for $SOON tokens. In September, there were over 84.5 million memecoin trades—a 113% increase from the previous month—showing strong activity linked to Telegram’s 1 billion+ users.
Why it matters:
This game encourages people to use Telegram more often and could increase how much Toncoin is used and held. But the rewards depend on users staying interested in these mini-games over time. (Bitrue)
2. Coinbase Ventures Invests (September 10, 2025)
What happened:
Coinbase Ventures bought an undisclosed amount of Toncoin, joining other big investors like Sequoia and Ribbit Capital. Toncoin also became available on popular platforms Gemini and Robinhood, making it easier for everyday investors to buy.
Why it matters:
Having well-known investors can boost Toncoin’s reputation and make it easier to trade. However, a large portion of Toncoin (68%) is held by a few big holders, which can cause price swings. (X)
3. $558 Million Private Funding (September 13, 2025)
What happened:
The TON Foundation and Kingsway Capital raised $558 million from over 110 investors to create a treasury company that will hold about 5% of Toncoin’s total supply.
Why it matters:
This strategy is similar to how MicroStrategy invested in Bitcoin to reduce selling pressure and attract traditional financial investors. The success depends on turning Telegram’s huge user base into active Toncoin users. (X)
Conclusion
Toncoin is growing by combining grassroots user engagement on Telegram with big institutional investments. Still, the fact that a few holders control most of the supply and the challenge of getting more users to adopt Toncoin are key hurdles. Will Toncoin’s treasury strategy lead to the same kind of institutional success as Bitcoin, or will supply concentration limit its growth?
What is expected in the development of TON?
Toncoin’s roadmap is focused on expanding its use, connecting with other blockchains, and attracting big financial institutions.
- Jetton 2.0 Upgrade (Q4 2025) – Faster token transfers and improved token standards.
- TON Teleport BTC Testnet (2026) – Bringing Bitcoin onto the TON network.
- Institutional Treasury Expansion (2026) – Raising over $400 million to reduce the number of Toncoins in circulation.
- AWS Blockchain Data Integration (Q3 2025) – Making TON’s blockchain data easier to access through Amazon Web Services.
- TON Strategy Co. Launch (2026) – Creating a company to connect traditional finance with the TON ecosystem.
Deep Dive
1. Jetton 2.0 Upgrade (Q4 2025)
Overview: Jetton 2.0 will make token transfers up to three times faster by improving how smart contracts run and lowering transaction fees. This upgrade updates TON’s token standard, similar to Ethereum’s popular ERC-20 tokens, which are widely used in decentralized finance (DeFi) and digital collectibles (NFTs).
What this means: This is good news for Toncoin because faster and cheaper transactions can attract more developers and users. However, there is a risk of delays or competition from other blockchain platforms.
2. TON Teleport BTC Testnet (2026)
Overview: This feature will allow Bitcoin owners to create a version of Bitcoin called tgBTC on the TON network, backed 1:1 by real Bitcoin (KoinSaati). Testing started in late 2025, with a full launch planned for 2026.
What this means: This could increase liquidity and use of Toncoin, but cross-chain bridges like this can have security risks. Its success depends on thorough security checks and adoption by Bitcoin users.
3. Institutional Treasury Expansion (2026)
Overview: TON Foundation and Kingsway Capital aim to raise over $400 million to form a publicly traded company that holds Toncoin as a reserve asset (Assemble). This follows a similar $558 million private funding round by Verb Technology.
What this means: This is positive for Toncoin’s long-term value because buying back coins reduces supply and can stabilize prices. Still, a small number of holders control about 68% of Toncoin, which could pose risks.
4. AWS Blockchain Data Integration (Q3 2025)
Overview: TON’s blockchain data became accessible through Amazon Web Services’ Public Blockchain Program in September 2025, making it easier for developers to analyze and build on TON (Gabrelyanov).
What this means: This should help grow the TON ecosystem by encouraging more app development, though the impact depends on how widely AWS tools are used by developers.
5. TON Strategy Co. Launch (2026)
Overview: TON plans to launch a regulated company to help integrate Toncoin with traditional financial institutions like BlackRock (Toknex).
What this means: This is a high-risk, high-reward move. If successful, it could make Toncoin more accepted by mainstream finance, but it depends on regulatory approval and building trust with big institutions.
Conclusion
Toncoin’s roadmap combines technical improvements like faster token transfers and Bitcoin integration with strategic efforts to attract institutional investors and reduce supply risks. While there are many positive factors, challenges such as large holders controlling most coins and regulatory hurdles could limit growth. The key question is whether Toncoin’s strong community, especially from Telegram users, can drive wider adoption despite these obstacles.
What updates are there in the TON code base?
Toncoin’s latest updates focus on making transactions faster, improving compatibility with other blockchains, and building better tools for decentralized finance (DeFi).
- Jetton 2.0 Upgrade (September 10, 2025) – Transfer speeds tripled thanks to improved technology called sharding.
- TON Teleport BTC Testnet (September 4, 2025) – Testing Bitcoin transfers across blockchains using wrapped tokens.
- AWS Blockchain Data Integration (September 10, 2025) – Public access to TON blockchain data through Amazon Web Services.
Deep Dive
1. Jetton 2.0 Upgrade (September 10, 2025)
What happened: Jetton 2.0 is an upgrade to Toncoin’s token system that makes transfers three times faster by improving how transactions are split and processed simultaneously (this is called sharding).
Validators (the network’s transaction verifiers) now share the workload more efficiently, reducing delays during busy times. Also, smart contracts can handle multiple transactions at once, lowering transaction fees by about 15% for frequent trades.
Why it matters: Faster and cheaper transfers make Toncoin more practical for everyday use, like apps and payments. This supports Telegram’s goal of getting more people to use Toncoin. (Source)
2. TON Teleport BTC Testnet (September 4, 2025)
What happened: TON launched a test version of a system that lets users move Bitcoin (BTC) onto the TON blockchain by creating wrapped BTC tokens called tgBTC. This uses secure methods to ensure the real BTC is safely held.
Tests show that cross-chain swaps finalize in about 12 seconds, which is fast for this kind of operation.
Why it matters: This expands Toncoin’s DeFi capabilities by allowing Bitcoin holders to use their BTC on TON’s platform. However, its success depends on Bitcoin’s network stability. If it works well, it could bring more Bitcoin liquidity to Toncoin’s ecosystem. (Source)
3. AWS Blockchain Data Integration (September 10, 2025)
What happened: Amazon Web Services (AWS) added TON to its Managed Blockchain service, giving developers access to real-time and historical TON blockchain data through easy-to-use APIs.
There’s a free tier for up to 1 million transactions per month, making it accessible for smaller projects.
Why it matters: This integration provides professional-grade tools that make it easier for businesses and developers to build on TON, potentially speeding up the growth of its ecosystem. (Source)
Conclusion
These updates position Toncoin as a fast, compatible blockchain with growing support from big players like AWS. While Jetton 2.0 and AWS integration strengthen the core technology, the success of TON Teleport depends on how well cross-chain features are adopted. The big question: Will Toncoin’s developer activity outpace other leading blockchains in the last quarter of 2025?