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Why did the price of TON go up?

Toncoin (TON) increased by 1.33% to $2.82 over the past 24 hours. This performance beats its 30-day downward trend of -11%, but it still trails behind the overall crypto market, which gained 1.77%. Here are the main factors influencing TON’s price:

  1. Tokenized Stocks Partnership – A new deal between Telegram, Kraken, and Backed enhances TON’s usefulness (Positive)
  2. Durov’s Bitcoin Support – Telegram’s CEO talks about TON integration on a popular podcast (Mixed)
  3. Technical Price Movement – TON’s price stays above an important support level at $2.67 (Neutral)

Deep Dive

1. Tokenized Stocks Integration (Positive Impact)

Overview:
Telegram’s wallet announced a partnership with Kraken and Backed to offer over 35 tokenized U.S. stocks and ETFs starting in October 2025 (CryptoNews). This service will expand to the TON Wallet by the fourth quarter, aiming to reach Telegram’s 1 billion-plus users.

What this means:

What to watch:
Look for adoption numbers in late 2025 and whether U.S. users can access the service despite regulatory challenges.

2. Durov’s Bitcoin and TON Endorsement (Mixed Impact)

Overview:
Telegram CEO Pavel Durov shared on Lex Fridman’s podcast (September 30) that Bitcoin supported his lifestyle until 2024 and praised TON’s ability to scale for mass adoption (Crypto.News).

What this means:

3. Technical Price Movement (Neutral Impact)

Overview:
TON’s price remains above a key support level at $2.67, tested three times since July 2025. Key technical indicators show:

What this means:
The recent 24-hour price increase looks more like a pause or consolidation within a downward trend rather than a clear reversal. A sustained move above $2.94 could signal stronger bullish momentum.

Conclusion

Toncoin’s recent price rise reflects growing optimism about its expanding real-world use through tokenized stocks, supported by Telegram CEO Pavel Durov’s positive comments on crypto. However, technical signals and a 20% drop over the past 60 days suggest investors should remain cautiously optimistic.

Key points to watch: Early adoption data from the tokenized stocks launch and whether TON can break above its 30-day exponential moving average at $2.95.


What could affect the price of TON?

Toncoin’s price is caught between the growth of Telegram’s ecosystem and the ups and downs caused by large holders (whales).

  1. Telegram’s Tokenized Stock Launch – Starting October 2025, Telegram will offer tokenized U.S. stocks through its Wallet, which could increase Toncoin’s usefulness.
  2. Whale Ownership Risks – About 68% of Toncoin is owned by a few large holders, which can cause price swings.
  3. Institutional Treasury Funding – A $558 million private investment aims to lock up some Toncoin supply, potentially stabilizing the market.

Deep Dive

1. Telegram’s Tokenized Stock Launch (Positive for Toncoin)

What’s happening: In October 2025, Telegram’s Wallet will let users buy tokenized versions of U.S. stocks like Nvidia and Tesla through partners Kraken and Backed. This service will reach over 100 million users and will be connected to the TON Wallet by the end of 2025. This will allow users to use Toncoin for things like borrowing against stocks and buying fractional shares.

Why it matters: Giving Telegram users easy access to stocks inside the app could increase demand for Toncoin, especially in countries where traditional investing is harder. Telegram’s huge user base (over 1 billion) has helped boost crypto adoption before, so this could be a big driver for Toncoin.

2. Whale Ownership Risks (Potential Downside)

What’s happening: More than 68% of Toncoin’s circulating supply is held by a small number of large holders, known as whales, according to CoinMarketCap data. Toncoin’s price has dropped about 65% from its all-time high, partly because retail investors have become less active after the initial excitement faded.

Why it matters: When so much supply is controlled by a few, if these whales decide to sell, it can cause big price drops. There’s important price support between $2.50 and $2.80; if Toncoin falls below this range, it could trigger more selling.

3. Institutional Treasury Funding (Mixed Effects)

What’s happening: Verb Technology raised $558 million to build a Toncoin treasury, similar to how MicroStrategy invests in Bitcoin. This treasury plans to lock up about 5% of all Toncoin, according to X/Toknex_xyz.

Why it matters: Locking up some supply could help stabilize Toncoin’s price over time. However, depending on institutional investors means the market could be affected by their buying and selling decisions.

Conclusion

Toncoin’s future price depends largely on how well Telegram can turn its massive user base into Toncoin users through tokenized stocks, balanced against the risks from large holders and market regulation. The $2.50 to $2.80 price range is a key support level to watch. Keep an eye on Telegram’s stock launch and whale activity to see if Toncoin’s connection to traditional finance will outweigh the risks from concentrated supply.


What are people saying about TON?

The Toncoin community is divided between optimism for a breakout and concerns about large holders causing price swings. Here’s what’s currently trending:

  1. A symmetrical triangle pattern suggests a possible 50% price move
  2. 68% of Toncoin supply is held by whales, raising worries about volatility
  3. A $400 million treasury plan is driving bullish expectations
  4. Price forecasts range from $2.60 up to $18 by 2030

Deep Dive

1. @ali_charts: Symmetrical triangle pattern looks bullish

“Toncoin $TON is consolidating in a triangle, signaling a potential 50% price move!”
– @ali_charts (304K followers · 1.2M impressions · 2025-09-02 07:58 UTC)
View original post
What this means: This is a positive sign for Toncoin. Symmetrical triangles often come before big price moves. If Toncoin breaks above $3.40 (a key resistance level), it could climb toward $5.10. But if it falls below $2.80, it might drop about 30%.

2. CoinMarketCap: Whale dominance causes concern

“68% of TON supply is held by large wallets, while long-term holders make up less than 20%”
– CoinMarketCap (2025-06-27 01:43 UTC · 4.2K impressions)
View original post
What this means: This is a warning sign. When a few large holders control most of the supply, it can lead to big price swings if they decide to sell. However, Toncoin’s connection to Telegram’s 1 billion+ users offers real-world use that could help stabilize demand.

3. Bloomberg: $400 million treasury plan is bullish

“TON Foundation plans to raise $400 million to create a token-backed treasury firm”
– Bloomberg (2025-07-25 12:48 UTC)
What this means: This is good news for Toncoin. Locking up a large amount of tokens in a treasury could reduce selling pressure and support the price. The key will be whether the fundraising is successful.

4. Cryptomus: Long-term price predictions vary

“2030 price forecasts range from $10.50 (low) to $24.90 (high), with an $18 ‘moonshot’ case”
– Cryptomus (2025-01-31 16:07 UTC)
View analysis
What this means: These predictions are mixed. The future price depends heavily on how widely Telegram adopts Toncoin. For now, the focus is on whether Toncoin can hold support at $2.80 or break resistance at $3.40.

Conclusion

The outlook for Toncoin is mixed. Technical charts suggest upcoming price swings, while fundamentals depend on Telegram’s integration of Toncoin. Large holders add uncertainty to price stability. Keep an eye on the $2.80 to $3.40 price range this week—breaking out of this zone could set the next trend. Long-term investors should watch Telegram’s user growth in Q4 2025 (expected November) as a key sign of adoption.


What is the latest news about TON?

Toncoin is benefiting from Telegram’s push into Web3 with some exciting updates:

  1. Tokenized Stocks Now Available in Telegram Wallet (October 2, 2025) – Thanks to a partnership with Kraken and Backed, over 100 million Telegram users can now access tokenized stocks.
  2. Telegram CEO’s Bitcoin Investment Supports TON Ecosystem (October 2, 2025) – Pavel Durov shares how his Bitcoin holdings helped fund Telegram until it became profitable.
  3. TON Foundation Hires Top Marketing Executive (October 1, 2025) – A former Nike and Apple marketing leader joins to boost TON’s global brand.

Deep Dive

1. Tokenized Stocks Launch in Telegram Wallet (October 2, 2025)

What’s Happening:
Telegram Wallet is rolling out access to more than 60 tokenized U.S. stocks and ETFs, including big names like Nvidia and MicroStrategy. This is made possible through partnerships with Kraken and Backed. The initial focus is on emerging markets, with plans to add these features to TON’s self-custodial wallet by the end of the year. Each token is fully backed 1:1 by the actual stock, allowing users to trade fractions of shares anytime during the week—all within Telegram’s app.

Why It Matters:
This move connects traditional finance (stocks) with the crypto world, opening up new opportunities for Telegram’s massive user base of over 1 billion people. It could increase the usefulness of Toncoin as a gateway to financial services. However, regulatory rules, especially in the U.S., could slow down or complicate this rollout. (Crypto.news)

2. Durov’s Bitcoin Bets Fuel TON Ecosystem (October 2, 2025)

What’s Happening:
In a recent podcast with Lex Fridman, Telegram’s CEO Pavel Durov revealed that his $2 million Bitcoin investment from 2013 helped keep Telegram running until it became profitable in 2024. He praised Bitcoin’s resistance to censorship and predicted its price could reach $1 million. Meanwhile, TON is positioned as Telegram’s scalable blockchain platform.

Why It Matters:
Durov’s support highlights TON’s connection to core crypto values like decentralization and censorship resistance. However, since Durov’s personal funds are tied to Bitcoin—not Toncoin—it raises questions about his long-term commitment to TON’s success. (Crypto.news)

3. TON Foundation Onboards Big-Name Marketer (October 1, 2025)

What’s Happening:
The TON Foundation has hired Gerardo Carucci, who previously worked at Nike and Apple, as Chief Marketing Officer. Carucci will lead efforts to build TON’s global brand and align it with Telegram’s Web3 initiatives. He brings experience from major campaigns like the launch of Apple Park.

Why It Matters:
This hire signals TON’s ambition to become a well-known player in the blockchain space. Success will depend on turning marketing efforts into real user growth, especially with strong competitors like Ethereum and Solana in the mix. (CoinSpeaker)

Conclusion

With new financial products, leadership backing, and a stronger brand push, TON is shaping up as Telegram’s main blockchain platform. While these developments are promising for wider adoption, challenges remain from regulations and competition. Will tokenized stocks attract enough everyday users to make up for TON’s recent 22% price drop over 60 days? Keep an eye on wallet integration updates in Q4 for answers.


What is expected in the development of TON?

Toncoin’s development is moving forward with these key milestones:

  1. Stable Swap Integration (Q4 2025) – Launching a partnership with Curve Finance to enable low-slippage stablecoin swaps.
  2. TON Strategy Co. Treasury (2025–2026) – Creating a $400 million institutional fund to lock up TON supply and support ecosystem growth.
  3. Jetton 2.0 Upgrade (September 2025) – Making token transfers three times faster and integrating TON blockchain data with AWS.
  4. TON Teleport BTC Testnet (2026) – Testing Bitcoin integration to mint wrapped Bitcoin (tgBTC) on the TON network.

Deep Dive

1. Stable Swap Integration (Q4 2025)

Overview
The TON Foundation is teaming up with Curve Finance to launch a "Stable Swap" protocol on the TON blockchain. This uses a technology called Constant Function Market Maker (CFMM) to reduce slippage—meaning users get better rates when swapping stablecoins like USDT for TON. It also helps keep liquidity pools stable.

What this means
This is good news for TON because it improves decentralized finance (DeFi) features and attracts stablecoin liquidity, which is important for growing payment options. However, its success depends on encouraging people to provide liquidity, supported by a 5 million TON rewards program (KoinSaati).

2. TON Strategy Co. Treasury (2025–2026)

Overview
The TON Foundation and Kingsway Capital plan to raise $400 million to create a publicly traded company that will hold TON as a reserve asset. This strategy is similar to what MicroStrategy did with Bitcoin. The goal is to lock up about 5% of TON’s circulating supply.

What this means
This move is somewhat positive because reducing the available supply could help reduce selling pressure. But there are risks in how well this plan is executed. It aims to attract institutional investors but will need regulatory approval and ongoing demand (CryptoTimes).

3. Jetton 2.0 Upgrade (September 2025)

Overview
Jetton 2.0 is an upgrade that will make token transfers on TON three times faster. It also connects TON’s blockchain data with Amazon Web Services (AWS) Public Blockchain datasets, making it easier for developers to analyze data.

What this means
This is a positive development because faster transactions help TON scale, especially given Telegram’s huge user base of over 1 billion people. The AWS integration also opens doors for more business and enterprise use (Gabrelyanov).

4. TON Teleport BTC Testnet (2026)

Overview
TON will launch a test version of its Bitcoin bridge, allowing users to create wrapped Bitcoin (tgBTC) on the TON blockchain. This comes after older bridges like TON-Ethereum shut down in May 2025.

What this means
This is promising because it expands TON’s ability to work across different blockchains. However, adoption will depend on how smooth and secure the user experience is. There are risks related to smart contract security that need to be carefully managed (KoinSaati).

Conclusion

Toncoin’s roadmap focuses on building strong DeFi tools, attracting institutional investors, and enabling cross-chain connections. Partnerships with Curve Finance and AWS show technical progress, while the $400 million treasury plan aims to support long-term value. Regulatory clarity and user adoption—especially through Telegram-integrated services like TON Space, which already has over 100 million wallets—will be key. With its focus on stablecoins and enterprise-ready features, Toncoin could become one of the top 10 cryptocurrencies by 2026.


What updates are there in the TON code base?

Toncoin’s latest software updates focus on faster transactions, better DeFi features, and improved infrastructure support.

  1. Jetton 2.0 Launch (September 10, 2025) – Token transfers are now three times faster thanks to protocol improvements.
  2. Stable Swap Integration (September 4, 2025) – Adds a new way to swap stablecoins with minimal price changes using advanced market-making technology.
  3. AWS Blockchain Data Support (September 10, 2025) – TON blockchain data is now available through Amazon Web Services’ public datasets, making it easier for developers to analyze.

Deep Dive

1. Jetton 2.0 Launch (September 10, 2025)

What it is: Jetton 2.0 is an upgrade to Toncoin’s token system that speeds up transfers by three times. It also lowers transaction costs and allows multiple token actions to be processed together, reducing network slowdowns.
Why it matters: Faster and cheaper transactions make Toncoin more user-friendly, especially for Telegram’s over 1 billion users. This can encourage more people to use Toncoin-based apps. (Source)

2. Stable Swap Integration (September 4, 2025)

What it is: Toncoin partnered with Curve Finance to add “Stable Swap,” a decentralized exchange feature that lets users swap stablecoins with very little price impact. It uses a special algorithm called Constant Function Market Maker (CFMM) to keep trades smooth and efficient.
Why it matters: This improves Toncoin’s DeFi capabilities, attracting traders and liquidity providers who want reliable and cost-effective stablecoin trading. (Source)

3. AWS Blockchain Data Support (September 10, 2025)

What it is: Toncoin’s blockchain data is now accessible through AWS’s Public Blockchain Dataset service. This gives developers real-time access to transaction records, smart contract activity, and network validator info using AWS tools.
Why it matters: While this makes it easier for developers and institutions to work with Toncoin data, its impact depends on how widely this data is used for building apps or meeting regulatory needs. (Source)

Conclusion

Toncoin’s recent updates focus on making the network faster (Jetton 2.0), more useful for decentralized finance (Stable Swap), and better supported for developers and institutions (AWS integration). These improvements support Toncoin’s goal to be the main Web3 platform for Telegram users. The big question is whether deeper integration with Telegram will drive the next big wave of Toncoin adoption.