Why did the price of TON fall?

Toncoin (TON) dropped 9.66% in the last 24 hours, falling more than the overall crypto market, which declined by 7.43%. This was mainly due to technical breakdowns and negative market sentiment. The main factors are:

1. Technical breakdown – Toncoin’s price fell below a key support level at $2.21 and is now trading below important moving averages.
2. Market-wide decline – The Crypto Fear & Greed Index shows a reading of 28, indicating “Fear,” and altcoins are under pressure, with the Altcoin Season Index down 22.86% over the week.
3. Increased selling volume – Toncoin’s trading volume in the past 24 hours jumped 34.37%, signaling stronger selling activity.

Deep Dive

1. Technical Weakness (Bearish Impact)

Overview:
Toncoin’s price fell below its 7-day simple moving average (SMA) and a key pivot point, both at $2.21, which increased selling pressure. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) values (7-day RSI at 30.42 and 14-day RSI at 31.35) suggest the coin is oversold but there are no clear signs of a price rebound yet.

What this means:

• Dropping below $2.21 triggered stop-loss orders and automated selling by trading algorithms.
• The price is now below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level ($2.23), with the next support level around $1.94 (50% Fibonacci retracement).
• The MACD indicator confirms ongoing bearish momentum.

What to watch:
If Toncoin’s price can close above $2.23, it may help stabilize the price. If it fails, the price could fall further to $1.64, which is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.

2. Broader Market Downturn (Bearish Impact)

Overview:
The total cryptocurrency market value dropped 7.43% in 24 hours. Bitcoin’s market dominance increased to 59.1%, causing investors to move money from altcoins like Toncoin into safer assets.

What this means:

• Toncoin’s 9.66% drop was sharper than the overall market decline, showing weaker demand for TON.
• Data from derivatives markets shows a 15.22% increase in open interest over 24 hours, indicating more traders are betting against Toncoin using leverage.

3. Sentiment-Driven Liquidation (Mixed Impact)

Overview:
Toncoin’s turnover ratio (trading volume divided by market cap) reached 4.93%, indicating high selling pressure. Fear-driven selling dominated, with no significant positive news to support the price.

What this means:

• Retail investors likely contributed to panic selling, especially since Toncoin has fallen about 60% from its peak earlier this year.
• Long-term holders (those holding for more than a year) now control less than 20% of the total supply, which reduces price stability.

Conclusion

Toncoin’s recent price drop is due to a mix of technical factors, overall market risk aversion, and low buying interest. While the coin is oversold and could see a short-term bounce, the lack of positive catalysts and weak investor sentiment suggest caution.

Key point to watch: Will Toncoin manage to rise above $2.23 to break the bearish trend, or will Bitcoin’s growing dominance continue to pull capital away from altcoins like TON?

What could affect the price of TON?

Toncoin’s future depends on how widely it’s adopted, the influence of large holders, and regulatory developments.

1. Growing Ecosystem – With Telegram’s 1 billion+ users, Toncoin’s real-world use could expand quickly.
2. Whale Control – Big holders own 68% of Toncoin, which could lead to price swings.
3. Regulatory Watch – Past issues with the SEC and recent rumors in the UAE have affected confidence.

Deep Dive

1. Telegram Integration & Use Cases (Positive Outlook)

Overview: Toncoin is closely tied to Telegram, which is used for payments, mini-apps, and stablecoin (USDT) transactions. New partnerships, like Kraken offering tokenized stocks on Toncoin, and a $5 million DeFi rewards program, are helping increase activity. There are over 155 million Toncoin accounts, growing 20% in the last six months.

What this means: Telegram’s huge user base provides a ready audience for Toncoin’s practical uses. If just 10% of Telegram users start using Toncoin, daily transactions could rise significantly, helping stabilize the price.

2. Whale Supply Concentration (Risk Factor)

Overview: Large holders, or “whales,” control 68% of Toncoin’s supply, while long-term holders make up less than 20%. This uneven distribution can lead to big price drops, like the 65% fall Toncoin experienced in June 2025.

What this means: If whales decide to sell even a small portion, it could flood the market with millions of Toncoin, causing sharp price declines and hurting short-term momentum.

3. Regulatory Overhang (Uncertain Impact)

Overview: Toncoin still faces some risks from Telegram’s 2020 legal battle with the SEC over its “Grams” token. In July 2025, rumors about UAE residency linked to Toncoin were denied, causing a 10% price drop. On the positive side, compliance with Europe’s MiCA regulations and a $558 million private funding round show growing institutional interest.

What this means: Clearer regulations could make Toncoin more attractive to traditional investors. However, unresolved legal questions, especially in the U.S., may limit price growth until they are settled.

Conclusion

Toncoin’s price will likely fluctuate based on Telegram’s adoption, the actions of large holders, and regulatory clarity. Watch the $2.50–$2.80 support range—historically, price rebounds here have led to rallies. The key question: Can Toncoin capitalize on Telegram’s massive user base without triggering regulatory problems?

What are people saying about TON?

The Toncoin community is actively discussing the pros and cons of Telegram’s ecosystem advantage versus the risks posed by large holders causing price swings. Here’s what’s trending:

1. Technical traders are watching for a breakout above $3.55 after a period of price consolidation.
2. Whales control 68% of the supply, raising concerns about market centralization.
3. Plans for a $400 million treasury are fueling optimism about Toncoin’s infrastructure growth.

Deep Dive

1. @ali_charts: Triangle Pattern Points to 50% Price Move — Bullish Signal

“$TON is consolidating in a triangle pattern, signaling a potential 50% price move!”
– @ali_charts (312k followers · 1.2M impressions · Sept 2, 2025)
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What this means: Toncoin’s price chart shows a symmetrical triangle pattern, which often precedes significant price changes. If the price breaks above $2.30 (currently around $2.10), it could rally to about $3.15. However, if it fails to break out, the price might fall to $1.60.

2. CoinMarketCap Community: Whale Control Raises Investor Concerns — Bearish Signal

“68% of TON supply is held by whales, which raises questions about the token’s long-term stability.”
– CoinMarketCap Post (June 27, 2025)
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What this means: A large portion of Toncoin’s supply is held by a few big investors (“whales”). Since less than 20% is held by long-term holders, there’s a risk that if whales decide to sell, the price could drop sharply. This is a concern despite Telegram’s large user base, which some believe will drive adoption.

3. @gabrelyanov: TON Ecosystem Expands Rapidly — Bullish Signal

“Jetton 2.0 enables transfers 3 times faster… AWS now includes TON in its Public Blockchain Data.”
– @gabrelyanov (89k followers · 480k impressions · Sept 10, 2025)
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What this means: Recent technical improvements and support from major players like Coinbase Ventures and Amazon Web Services (AWS) are boosting Toncoin’s utility as a Layer-1 blockchain. Additionally, memecoin trading on TON has surged 113% month-over-month, showing increased speculative interest.

Conclusion

Opinions on Toncoin ($TON) are mixed. On one hand, infrastructure upgrades and Telegram integration offer strong growth potential. On the other, the heavy concentration of tokens in whale wallets creates volatility risks. Since Toncoin’s price has dropped about 65% from its 2024 high ($8.20 down to $2.84), caution remains. Key levels to watch are the $2.50–$2.80 support zone—if the price holds here, it could push back up toward $3.50. But if it breaks below, $2.00 might be tested. Keep an eye on whale activity and Toncoin’s decentralized finance (DeFi) total value locked (TVL), currently around $800 million, for clues on future price direction.

What is the latest news about TON?

Toncoin is making strides in gaining support from big institutions and growing its ecosystem, even as the market faces ups and downs. Here’s a quick summary of the latest news:

1. Kraken & Telegram Introduce Tokenized Stocks (October 16, 2025) – Over 100 million Telegram users can now trade tokenized stocks using the TON blockchain.
2. Coinbase Ventures Confirms TON Investment (August 11, 2025) – A major institutional investor backs Toncoin’s ecosystem.
3. $400 Million Treasury Plan Announced (July 25, 2025) – A strategy to lock up supply and help stabilize Toncoin’s value.

In-Depth Look

1. Kraken & Telegram Introduce Tokenized Stocks (October 16, 2025)

What happened: Kraken, Telegram’s wallet team, and Backed launched tokenized versions of U.S. stocks and ETFs (called xStocks) inside Telegram’s wallet. This means users can buy and sell shares of companies like NVIDIA and Coinbase directly within the Telegram app. There are plans to expand this to decentralized wallets on the TON blockchain. This setup also opens the door for decentralized finance (DeFi) uses, like loans backed by these tokenized stocks. With Telegram’s huge user base of over 1 billion people, this could be a game changer.
Why it matters: This is a big win for Toncoin because it increases how useful TON is inside Telegram. It combines traditional finance (stocks) with blockchain technology, making it easier and more efficient to trade. This partnership could increase demand for Toncoin as the currency used to settle these trades.
(Coinspeaker)

2. Coinbase Ventures Confirms TON Investment (August 11, 2025)

What happened: The TON Foundation announced that Coinbase Ventures has bought Toncoin, joining other big investors like Sequoia, Ribbit, and Paradigm. The exact amount invested wasn’t shared, but this shows strong confidence in Toncoin’s future, especially with its connection to Telegram’s large user base.
Why it matters: This news is generally positive because it boosts Toncoin’s credibility. While it might not cause immediate price jumps, having institutional investors on board could attract more funding and support down the line.
(TON Foundation)

3. $400 Million Treasury Plan Announced (July 25, 2025)

What happened: The TON Foundation and Kingsway Capital plan to raise $400 million through a crypto treasury company that will hold Toncoin. This approach is similar to what MicroStrategy did with Bitcoin. The goal is to reduce the number of Toncoins available on the market and position TON as a trusted reserve asset for institutions.
Why it matters: This is good news for the long term because locking up supply can reduce price swings and make Toncoin more scarce and valuable. However, there is still a risk since a small group of holders controls about 65.87% of the supply, which could impact the market if they decide to sell.
(Bloomberg via CoinMarketCap)

Conclusion

Toncoin is making important moves to combine Telegram’s massive audience with blockchain technology. While challenges like the concentration of coin ownership remain, initiatives such as tokenized stocks and treasury locking could help stabilize Toncoin’s growth. The big question is whether Telegram’s 1 billion-plus users will help Toncoin evolve from a speculative asset into a widely used financial tool.

What is expected in the development of TON?

Toncoin's development is moving forward with key goals:

1. Cross-Chain Interoperability (2026) – Building connections to Ethereum, Binance Smart Chain (BSC), and Bitcoin networks.
2. TON DeFi Expansion (Q4 2025) – Introducing lending services and rewards to encourage liquidity.
3. Scalable Treasury Strategy (Ongoing) – Buying back 5% of Toncoin supply to help stabilize the market.

Deep Dive

1. Cross-Chain Interoperability (2026)

Overview: Toncoin is improving how it works with other blockchains. After retiring its own bridge in May 2025, it will rely on partners like LayerZero and Stargate to connect with networks such as Ethereum and BSC. It’s also testing Bitcoin integration through TON Teleport. This will make it easier to move assets between different blockchains.

What this means: This is positive for Toncoin because it can attract users from other popular blockchains like Solana and Ethereum. However, depending on outside services like Symbiosis carries some risk if those services have issues.

2. TON DeFi Expansion (Q4 2025)

Overview: The TON Foundation is encouraging decentralized finance (DeFi) growth by offering 5 million TON tokens as rewards. This supports platforms like STON.fi and Dedust, focusing on stablecoin trading (like USDT-TON pairs) and vaults that generate earnings.

What this means: This could help Toncoin become more useful, but right now its total value locked (TVL) in DeFi is $16 million (as of July 2025), which is small compared to competitors. The key will be keeping users engaged after the rewards end.

3. Scalable Treasury Strategy (Ongoing)

Overview: TON Strategy Co., formerly Verb Technology, plans to buy about 5% of Toncoin’s circulating supply (around 125 million tokens) through a $558 million private funding round. This approach is similar to how MicroStrategy invests in Bitcoin to support its price.

What this means: This could reduce selling pressure and support prices in the short term. However, it might raise concerns about too much control being held by a few large holders. Currently, big wallets own 67% of Toncoin’s supply (CoinMarketCap), which can lead to price swings.

Conclusion

Toncoin’s roadmap focuses on connecting with other blockchains, growing its DeFi ecosystem, and managing token supply—all aiming to tap into Telegram’s huge user base of over 1 billion people. Technical improvements like the TVM v12 update (released October 2025) boost efficiency, but the ecosystem still depends heavily on speculative tokens and large holders, which can cause volatility.

What to watch: Will Toncoin’s partnerships with institutions help reduce price swings caused by retail investors by early 2026?

What updates are there in the TON code base?

Toncoin’s latest updates focus on making the network faster, more secure, and better connected within its own ecosystem.

1. Jetton 2.0 Upgrade (September 10, 2025) – Token transfers are now three times faster thanks to improved smart contract design.
2. TVM Vulnerability Patch (July 21, 2025) – Fixed a serious issue in the virtual machine that could have caused network problems.
3. Toncoin Bridge Shutdown (May 10, 2025) – The old cross-chain bridge was retired to focus on native DeFi tools within the Toncoin ecosystem.

Deep Dive

1. Jetton 2.0 Upgrade (September 10, 2025)

What happened: Jetton 2.0 is an upgrade to Toncoin’s token system that makes transferring tokens much faster and cheaper. By redesigning how token operations are handled, transfer times dropped from about 5 seconds to under 2 seconds. Plus, transaction fees for token swaps decreased by around 40%, according to the TON Foundation.
Why it matters: Faster and cheaper transfers make Toncoin more practical for decentralized finance (DeFi) apps and gaming platforms, improving user experience and encouraging more activity. (Source)

2. TVM Vulnerability Patch (July 21, 2025)

What happened: A security audit found a critical flaw in the TON Virtual Machine (TVM), which runs smart contracts. This flaw could have caused network nodes to crash under heavy use. The team fixed it by updating how gas fees are calculated and adding protections against infinite loops. No attacks were reported before the fix, but node operators had 72 hours to update their software.
Why it matters: This update shows the TON team is actively maintaining security, though it also highlights the challenges of managing complex smart contract systems. Overall, it’s a neutral development for Toncoin’s stability. (Source)

3. Toncoin Bridge Shutdown (May 10, 2025)

What happened: Toncoin discontinued its bridge that connected TON with Ethereum and BNB Chain. This bridge allowed users to move tokens between blockchains but saw a 94% drop in use after exchanges started offering direct TON trading. The liquidity was moved to native solutions like LayerZero integrations. Users still have until 2026 to claim any remaining assets on the bridge.
Why it matters: In the short term, this reduces cross-chain options for users, which might be seen as a downside. However, focusing on native tools strengthens the Toncoin ecosystem and supports long-term growth. (Source)

Conclusion

Toncoin’s recent updates show a clear focus on improving speed, security, and self-reliance within its own network. By retiring older systems and emphasizing native solutions, Toncoin is aligning more closely with Telegram’s platform. The big question remains: can Toncoin’s developer community keep growing strong while addressing concerns about centralization?