What could affect the price of BCH?
Bitcoin Cash is navigating a mix of technical progress and regulatory uncertainty.
- ETF Applications Increase – 21 new Bitcoin Cash ETF proposals have been submitted, but SEC decisions are delayed due to a government shutdown.
- Network Improvements – Upcoming upgrades include smarter contract features and proposals to speed up transaction times.
- Security Concerns – A $21 million hack at SBI Crypto, linked to North Korean hackers, raises questions about the safety of large Bitcoin Cash holdings.
In-Depth Analysis
1. ETF Interest vs Regulatory Delays (Mixed Outlook)
Summary:
In early October 2025, at least 21 new Bitcoin Cash ETF applications were filed, some including staking options (The Block). If approved by the SEC, these ETFs could open the door for more institutional investors. However, the current U.S. government shutdown has paused the SEC’s review process, causing missed deadlines.
What this means for investors:
If approved, Bitcoin Cash ETFs could attract significant investment, similar to recent Bitcoin ETF inflows that increased traditional finance assets by 11% in just 30 days. But delays risk Bitcoin Cash falling behind other altcoins like Solana (SOL) and XRP, whose ETFs are moving forward. The government shutdown likely won’t be resolved before mid-October, so decisions may be postponed further.
2. Smart Contract Upgrades (Positive Outlook)
Summary:
The May 2025 Velma hard fork dramatically boosted Bitcoin Cash’s smart contract capabilities, increasing computational power by 100 times and adding BigInt support for decentralized finance (DeFi) applications. Developers are now proposing to reduce block times from 10 minutes to 2 minutes to speed up transactions (Levex).
What this means for investors:
Faster transaction finality and improved programmability similar to Ethereum could attract more developers and users. After the upgrade, Bitcoin Cash’s DeFi total value locked (TVL) grew by 14%. However, adoption still trails behind Ethereum’s Layer 2 solutions, so sustained growth is needed to support higher valuations.
3. Security Risks and Market Impact (Negative Outlook)
Summary:
In September 2025, SBI Crypto suffered a $21 million Bitcoin Cash hack, exposing vulnerabilities in how large holders secure their assets. On-chain data shows that large Bitcoin Cash holders (whales) reduced their holdings by 9% following the breach (ZachXBT).
What this means for investors:
This security breach has shaken confidence in Bitcoin Cash’s use by enterprises in the short term. Since SBI controls about 21% of Bitcoin Cash’s mining power, miners might sell off coins to cover losses, which could push prices below $550.
Conclusion
Bitcoin Cash’s price outlook depends heavily on whether ETFs get approved in Q4, balanced against ongoing security concerns and Bitcoin’s strong market dominance (58.5%). While technical upgrades improve Bitcoin Cash’s appeal, the $580–$620 price range remains a key resistance level. The big question is whether Bitcoin Cash can capitalize on its low transaction fees to outperform Ethereum in payments before broader market changes in November.
What are people saying about BCH?
Talk around Bitcoin Cash (BCH) is swinging between excitement over a potential breakout and concerns about a pullback. Here’s what’s trending right now:
- Technical experts see the $600 level as a key point that could determine BCH’s next move.
- Social media sentiment warns that the recent hype might be overdone after a 6.7% price drop.
- Rumors about an ETF (Exchange-Traded Fund) are stirring speculation, even though the fundamentals are weak.
Deep Dive
1. @ColinTCrypto: A big breakout could be coming soon 🚀 bullish
"BCH has bounced back within a key pattern, signaling a strong upward move. Both BCH/BTC and BCH/USD charts point to gains ahead."
– @ColinTCrypto (58K followers · 412K impressions · 2025-06-28 00:11 UTC)
View original post
What this means: If BCH breaks above $572, it could jump 10-15% toward the $607–$664 range, based on common technical analysis tools called Fibonacci extensions.
2. NewsBTC: Social hype meets reality 📉 bearish
"BCH dropped 6.7% as the Santiment sentiment index hit 2.3, indicating extreme greed—a classic sign that a sell-off might follow."
– NewsBTC (3.2M monthly readers · 2025-09-20 01:00 UTC)
View article
What this means: Many retail investors got caught up in the excitement near $650, leading to selling pressure. Meanwhile, the number of active BCH users is at a six-year low despite the price increase, suggesting weak underlying demand.
3. @open4profit: Key support at $590 under pressure 🤔 mixed
"Will BCH hold the $590 support level or drop to $580? The charts show buyers and sellers are evenly matched—what happens next depends on the upcoming price movement."
– @open4profit (127K followers · 289K impressions · 2025-09-04 20:45 UTC)
View original post
What this means: The market is likely to see some volatility, with a possible 4% price swing depending on Bitcoin’s overall market trend.
Conclusion
The general outlook for Bitcoin Cash is cautiously optimistic. Technical indicators suggest there’s room for price gains, but social media signals warn the market might be stretched too far. The $572 resistance level is crucial—closing above it on a daily basis would confirm a strong upward trend. Also, keep an eye on the RSI (Relative Strength Index): while some shorter-term signals look positive, weekly readings show the asset might be overbought. Rumors about Grayscale’s ETF filing and a favorable Golden Cross pattern (where the 50-day moving average crosses above the 200-day moving average) add to the hopeful sentiment, but caution is advised.
What is the latest news about BCH?
Bitcoin Cash is gaining momentum from ETF excitement and positive technical signals, even as it faces security challenges. Here’s the latest update:
- ETF Rush During Government Shutdown (October 3, 2025) – 21 crypto ETFs, including Bitcoin Cash, were filed, but SEC delays are expected.
- $1,000 Price Target in Sight (October 3, 2025) – Bitcoin Cash broke a bullish pattern amid expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts.
- SBI Crypto Hack Linked to North Korea (September 24, 2025) – $21 million worth of Bitcoin Cash was stolen and laundered through Tornado Cash.
In-Depth Look
1. ETF Rush During Government Shutdown (October 3, 2025)
What happened:
On October 3, REX Shares and Osprey Funds submitted filings for 21 cryptocurrency ETFs, including one for Bitcoin Cash. The SEC has a faster approval process in place thanks to updated exchange rules, which could speed up these listings. However, a U.S. government shutdown has slowed things down. SEC staff are working with limited resources, causing delays in important deadlines.
Why it matters:
This is good news for Bitcoin Cash because ETF approval can attract big institutional investors, similar to what happened with Bitcoin’s ETF-driven rally in 2024. But if the shutdown lasts, it could delay these investments, meaning short-term price moves will mostly depend on individual traders. (The Block)
2. $1,000 Price Target in Sight (October 3, 2025)
What happened:
Bitcoin Cash’s price jumped 14.2% over five days, reaching $609 and breaking out of a rising wedge pattern—a technical sign that often points to further gains. Analysts note a bullish signal from the weekly MACD indicator and steady investment inflows since mid-2024. Holding above $580 could push the price toward $800 to $1,000, but falling below that might lead to a drop to $450.
Why it matters:
This price move is promising but should be approached with caution. While interest in Bitcoin Cash derivatives increased by 4.5%, actual trading volume dropped by 20.9%, indicating less market liquidity. Traders are optimistic about potential Federal Reserve rate cuts, which have a 94% chance priced in, but high leverage in the market could lead to sharp corrections. (Coinspeaker)
3. SBI Crypto Hack Linked to North Korea (September 24, 2025)
What happened:
SBI Crypto, a major Bitcoin Cash mining company, was hacked on September 24, losing $21 million. Blockchain investigators traced the stolen funds to the Lazarus Group, a hacking group linked to North Korea, who laundered the money using Tornado Cash. SBI Crypto has not yet responded publicly, raising concerns about security.
Why it matters:
This is negative news for market confidence, highlighting risks in mining operations and altcoin liquidity. Although Bitcoin Cash’s price didn’t drop significantly after the hack, repeated security breaches could scare off institutional investors. As a result, stronger security measures and audits may become a priority soon. (Bitrue)
Conclusion
Bitcoin Cash is riding a wave of ETF optimism and strong technical signals but faces ongoing security challenges. Institutional interest is growing, but regulatory delays and hacking threats create uncertainty. The big question remains: will ETF approvals help Bitcoin Cash secure its place in the growing “altcoin rotation”?
What is expected in the development of BCH?
Bitcoin Cash is moving forward with two key development goals:
- Protocol Specification Collaboration (2026) – Creating shared technical guidelines to keep all software versions aligned.
- Block Time Reduction Proposal (Under Review) – Considering faster transaction processing by shortening the time between blocks.
Deep Dive
1. Protocol Specification Collaboration (2026)
Overview:
Developers plan to build a single, clear source for Bitcoin Cash’s technical rules, replacing scattered documents (GitLab). This will help different teams work together smoothly and avoid conflicts when upgrading the network.
What this means:
This is neutral for BCH right now. Standardizing the protocol can improve coordination and help BCH grow over time, but disagreements or delays could slow things down.
2. Block Time Reduction Proposal (Under Review)
Overview:
There’s a community idea to cut the block time from 10 minutes to 2 minutes, which would speed up how quickly transactions are confirmed. This change would require a major update called a hard fork and has sparked debate about possible security risks (BTCC).
What this means:
If approved, this could be positive for BCH by making payments faster and more competitive with other cryptocurrencies like Solana. However, in the short term, it could cause network disruptions during the update process.
Conclusion
Bitcoin Cash’s development plan balances improving technical details with bold moves to make the network more user-friendly. While exact dates aren’t set, these efforts show BCH’s commitment to scaling and real-world use. It will be interesting to see how growing decentralized finance (DeFi) applications using CashTokens might shape these priorities.
What updates are there in the BCH code base?
Bitcoin Cash is upgrading its technology to support smart contracts, decentralized finance (DeFi), and better scalability.
- VM Limits & BigInt CHIPs (May 15, 2025) – Improved smart contract features with higher math precision.
- Knuth Node Upgrade (July 1, 2025) – Streamlined code for faster processing and future growth.
- CashTokens Ecosystem Expansion (Q3 2025) – New tools and wallets for easier token creation and trading.
In-Depth Look
1. VM Limits & BigInt CHIPs (May 15, 2025)
What happened:
The Velma upgrade introduced VM Limits and BigInt features, allowing Bitcoin Cash to handle very large numbers (up to 80,000 bits) and remove limits on script execution.
This means developers can now create more complex financial contracts—like multi-signature agreements and decentralized exchanges—right on the Bitcoin Cash blockchain. It also supports precise calculations needed for DeFi applications without relying on extra layers.
Why it matters:
This upgrade makes Bitcoin Cash more attractive for serious financial applications, especially for institutions looking for low fees and scalable on-chain solutions.
(Source)
2. Knuth Node Upgrade (July 1, 2025)
What happened:
The Knuth v0.68.0 update cleaned up the node software by removing old code and improving how unspent transaction outputs (UTXOs) are managed. This helps the network handle bigger blocks more efficiently.
Tests showed an 18% faster sync time, and the update sets the stage for future improvements like sharding (splitting the blockchain to process more transactions).
Why it matters:
While this update doesn’t immediately change much, it’s important for Bitcoin Cash’s long-term growth. It helps the network scale to handle larger transaction volumes without sacrificing decentralization.
(Source)
3. CashTokens Ecosystem Expansion (Q3 2025)
What happened:
The team led by Mathieu Geukens launched updates to the Cashonize Wallet and CashScript SDK, making it easier for developers to create tokens and perform cross-chain atomic swaps (secure trades between different blockchains).
Developer activity increased by 42% year-over-year, with over 1,200 monthly code updates to Bitcoin Cash Node projects.
Why it matters:
This shows growing interest and momentum in the Bitcoin Cash developer community. CashTokens now account for 14% of all BCH transactions, up from 3% in 2024, signaling wider adoption.
(Source)
Conclusion
Bitcoin Cash is following a clear plan: enhancing smart contracts, improving network performance, and expanding its token ecosystem. With daily active users reaching 450,000 (a 20% increase from last year), 2026 could be the year Bitcoin Cash challenges Ethereum for developer attention and innovation.
Why did the price of BCH fall?
Bitcoin Cash (BCH) dropped 1.11% in the last 24 hours, slightly underperforming the overall crypto market, which fell by 1.39%. This pullback comes after a strong 7-day rally of 7.15% and is driven by three main factors:
- Security breach fallout – A $21 million hack targeted SBI Crypto, a BCH mining pool, with links to North Korea.
- ETF approval delays – The U.S. government shutdown has paused SEC decisions on proposed BCH ETFs.
- Technical resistance – BCH failed to break above $600 and is now testing important support between $580 and $592.
Deep Dive
1. SBI Crypto Hack Impact (Bearish)
Overview: SBI Crypto, a Japanese company responsible for about 21% of BCH’s mining power, was hit by a $21 million hack on September 24. The stolen BCH was laundered using Tornado Cash, a method associated with North Korean hackers (Cyvers).
What this means: This hack exposes vulnerabilities in BCH’s mining network. Although SBI Crypto hasn’t publicly confirmed the details, this event could reduce trust among institutional investors and put downward pressure on BCH prices until security improvements are made.
2. ETF Delays Amid Shutdown (Mixed)
Overview: More than 20 crypto ETFs, including those for BCH, were filed on October 3. However, the U.S. government shutdown, which started on October 2, has paused SEC operations. This means BCH ETF proposals from companies like Grayscale are now delayed indefinitely (The Block).
What this means: In the short term, this delay is negative because it stalls institutional interest. But if the SEC resumes work after the shutdown, BCH could benefit from renewed optimism. The recent 90-day rally of 20.02% already factored in some expectations of ETF approval.
3. Technical Rejection at $600 (Bearish)
Overview: BCH tried to break above $600 on October 3 but couldn’t hold that level, falling back to $597.72. Important support levels are at $592.74 (the 50% Fibonacci retracement) and the 7-day simple moving average at $586.22, which tends to attract trading activity.
What to watch: If BCH closes below $580, it might retest the 200-day exponential moving average at $506.70. The MACD indicator (+3.73) shows that bullish momentum is weakening.
Conclusion
The recent dip in BCH reflects a combination of profit-taking, security concerns from the SBI Crypto hack, and regulatory uncertainty due to the U.S. government shutdown. Despite these challenges, BCH’s strong 90-day gain of 20.02% and a rising altcoin season index of 60 indicate underlying strength.
Key watch: Will BCH maintain support at $580, or will the ongoing U.S. shutdown delay ETF approvals further and lead to deeper price drops? Keep an eye on when the SEC reopens and how SBI Crypto responds to the hack.