What could affect the price of BCH?
Bitcoin Cash is currently caught between growing interest from institutional investors through ETFs and the pressure from Mt. Gox creditors selling their holdings.
- ETF Inclusion – T. Rowe Price’s crypto ETF could increase demand from big investors (positive for price)
- Mt. Gox Repayments – $3.9 billion worth of Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash to be released by October 31, risking market oversupply (negative for price)
- Technical Upgrades – The Velma hard fork in May 2025 will expand Bitcoin Cash’s decentralized finance (DeFi) features (positive for price)
Deep Dive
1. Institutional ETF Exposure (Positive Impact)
Overview:
T. Rowe Price has proposed an Active Crypto ETF that includes Bitcoin Cash (BCH) among 15 key cryptocurrencies. This fund aims to outperform the FTSE Crypto US Listed Index, with BCH competing alongside coins like Solana (SOL), Dogecoin (DOGE), and Ripple (XRP) for investment weight.
What this means:
If the ETF is approved after the U.S. government shutdown (with a 63% chance by November 15, according to Polymarket), it could lead to steady buying of BCH. Historically, when cryptocurrencies are added to ETFs, mid-sized coins often see price increases between 20% and 50% (source).
2. Mt. Gox Overhang (Negative Impact)
Overview:
Creditors of the Mt. Gox exchange are set to receive 34,689 BTC and an equivalent amount of BCH, valued at about $3.9 billion, by October 31, 2025. Since March 2025, the trustee has been moving these assets between wallets, signaling that payouts are coming soon.
What this means:
If creditors start selling their BCH, it could put significant downward pressure on the price. To put it in perspective, BCH’s daily trading volume is around $660 million, which is only 17% of the total amount that could be sold. Previous payouts in July 2024 caused price swings of about 12%, even though overall trading volume didn’t spike unusually (source).
3. Smart Contract Expansion (Positive Impact)
Overview:
The Velma hard fork, scheduled for May 2025, introduces important upgrades like VM Limits and BigInt support. These changes allow Bitcoin Cash to support more complex DeFi applications. This follows the 2024 launch of CashTokens, which helped BCH’s DeFi total value locked (TVL) grow by 122% on the Arbitrum network in just 30 days.
What this means:
These improvements could help BCH compete with Ethereum Layer 2 solutions. For example, projects like Future Bitcoin Cash are already using the 100x increased computation limits to build derivatives trading platforms—a market with $34 billion in real-world assets (source).
Conclusion
Bitcoin Cash’s price direction will depend on how well demand from ETFs balances out the selling pressure from Mt. Gox creditors through the end of 2025. Meanwhile, technical upgrades like the Velma hard fork aim to position BCH as a stronger player in the DeFi space. The current price support zone between $460 and $520 will be a key test to see if buyers can absorb the upcoming sell-offs. Will the adoption of Velma’s upgrades outpace the negative impact of the Mt. Gox sell-off by year-end?
What are people saying about BCH?
There’s a lot of talk around Bitcoin Cash (BCH) hitting key price levels, with opinions split. Here’s the quick summary:
- Optimists are looking for BCH to break above $600, driven by strong momentum compared to Bitcoin.
- Neutral traders see $471 as a critical point that could go either way.
- Pessimists warn that if BCH loses support, it could drop by about 30%.
In-Depth Look
1. @ColinTCrypto: BCH/BTC Pair Set to Outperform
"BCH/BTC bottomed – flipping this resistance could trigger massive outperformance vs Bitcoin"
– @ColinTCrypto (12.3K followers · 48K impressions · 2025-06-28 00:11 UTC)
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What this means: This is a positive sign for Bitcoin Cash. When BCH gains strength against Bitcoin (BTC), it often signals a shift where alternative cryptocurrencies (altcoins) start to perform better. If BCH can maintain this breakout against BTC, it could attract traders looking for momentum.
2. @PunkChainer: Neutral at Important Fibonacci Level
"Consolidating near $471 resistance – monitor breakout/breakdown triggers"
– @PunkChainer (8.7K followers · 22K impressions · 2025-10-19 02:10 UTC)
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What this means: Bitcoin Cash is currently holding near a key technical level around $471. If the price closes above $508.40, it could confirm a bullish trend. But if it falls below $463, it might lead to a sharp sell-off as traders rush to exit.
3. CoinMarketCap Analysis: $600 Target with Hidden Bullish Signal
"BCH ascending channel holds – RSI divergence suggests upside to $664 if $572 breaks"
– Technical analyst (Published 2025-08-07 15:12 UTC)
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What this means: This is another positive indicator. A hidden bullish divergence in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggests BCH could rise to $664 if it breaks above $572. However, if the price drops below $520, this bullish outlook would be invalidated, so careful risk management is important.
4. CCN Bear Warning: Possible 30% Correction Ahead
"Break below ascending channel could send BCH to $490 support"
– CCN Markets Team (Published 2025-09-10 09:17 UTC)
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What this means: This is a warning sign. If BCH falls below its current upward trend channel, it could drop to around $490. This level matches a common technical retracement point, suggesting a significant correction might be coming.
Summary
The outlook for Bitcoin Cash is mixed. Some technical signals point to potential breakouts and strength against Bitcoin, while others warn of possible declines. The key level to watch is $572 — a strong close above this could spark buying momentum, while failure to hold it might lead to profit-taking and a drop toward $460. Stay tuned to these levels to understand where BCH might head next.
What is the latest news about BCH?
Bitcoin Cash is making strides with institutional support while facing regulatory challenges. Here’s the latest update:
- T. Rowe Price ETF Filing (October 23, 2025) – The $1.8 trillion asset manager includes Bitcoin Cash in a proposed actively managed crypto ETF.
- Grayscale Bitcoin Cash ETF Progress (September 10, 2025) – Grayscale moves forward with converting its Bitcoin Cash Trust into an ETF, benefiting from new NYSE rules.
- Roger Ver’s $48 Million Tax Settlement (October 9, 2025) – The Bitcoin Cash advocate settles a tax dispute with the U.S. Department of Justice, reflecting changing crypto enforcement priorities.
Deep Dive
1. T. Rowe Price ETF Filing (October 23, 2025)
Overview:
T. Rowe Price, a well-established Wall Street firm managing $1.8 trillion in assets, has filed with the SEC to launch an actively managed crypto ETF. Bitcoin Cash is one of 14 cryptocurrencies included, alongside Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH). The fund aims to outperform the FTSE Crypto US Listed Index by adjusting its holdings based on market trends and fundamental analysis.
What this means:
This is a positive sign for Bitcoin Cash because being part of a major traditional finance ETF shows growing institutional acceptance. It could attract new investment into BCH. However, the ETF’s approval depends on the resolution of the current U.S. government shutdown, which has paused SEC reviews of 155 crypto exchange-traded products (ETPs). (Yahoo Finance)
2. Grayscale Bitcoin Cash ETF Progress (September 10, 2025)
Overview:
Grayscale has filed to convert its Bitcoin Cash Trust into an ETF, with the ticker BCHG. The conversion requires 82.8655 BCH for every 10,000 shares. This move takes advantage of NYSE Arca’s new Generic Listing Standards, which could simplify the approval process for commodity-based ETFs.
What this means:
This development strengthens Bitcoin Cash’s momentum in the ETF space but faces delays due to regulatory backlogs. If approved, BCHG would become the first Bitcoin Cash ETF, improving liquidity and helping investors better understand BCH’s market value. (Cryptotimes)
3. Roger Ver’s $48 Million Tax Settlement (October 9, 2025)
Overview:
Roger Ver, a well-known Bitcoin Cash supporter, reached a tentative $48 million settlement with the U.S. Department of Justice over alleged tax fraud related to unreported Bitcoin holdings. The charges may be dropped once the payment is made, reflecting a softer approach to crypto enforcement under the current administration.
What this means:
While this doesn’t directly affect Bitcoin Cash’s fundamentals, it removes a regulatory cloud hanging over one of its key advocates. It also signals a broader shift toward negotiated settlements rather than aggressive prosecutions in the crypto space. (Cryptoslate)
Conclusion
Bitcoin Cash is gaining traction with institutional investors through ETF developments, even as it navigates a complex and changing regulatory environment. With major traditional finance firms and crypto-focused companies backing BCH, the big question remains: Will the SEC move forward with crypto ETF approvals after the government shutdown, or will altcoins like Bitcoin Cash remain in regulatory limbo?
What is expected in the development of BCH?
Bitcoin Cash is moving forward with key updates:
- OP_EVAL & P2S Upgrades (2026–2027) – These will allow more advanced smart contracts and flexible payment options.
- Block Time Reduction Proposal (TBD) – There’s a plan to shorten block times to 2 minutes, making transactions faster.
- CashTokens Ecosystem Growth (Ongoing) – New developer tools are being created to support decentralized finance (DeFi) and token creation.
In Detail
1. OP_EVAL & P2S Upgrades (2026–2027)
What’s happening:
Between 2026 and 2027, Bitcoin Cash plans to add OP_EVAL, which improves the scripting language to handle more complex contracts, and Pay-to-Script (P2S), which allows payments to be made to specific scripts rather than just addresses. This means Bitcoin Cash could support things like programmable escrow services, decentralized identity systems, and even work with other blockchains. These features bring Bitcoin Cash closer to what platforms like Ethereum offer in terms of smart contracts.
Why it matters:
This upgrade could attract developers interested in building decentralized finance (DeFi) applications on a blockchain with lower transaction fees. However, technical challenges or delays could slow down how quickly these features are adopted.
2. Block Time Reduction Proposal (TBD)
What’s happening:
There’s a community suggestion to reduce the time it takes to add a new block to the blockchain from 10 minutes to just 2 minutes. This change could increase the number of transactions processed by up to five times. However, it requires agreement from the people running the network (node operators and miners) and involves discussions about balancing speed with security (Levex).
Why it matters:
Faster block times could make Bitcoin Cash more useful for everyday payments. On the flip side, it might make mining more difficult for smaller players, potentially leading to more centralized mining power. Overall, this is seen as a neutral to positive development.
3. CashTokens Ecosystem Growth (Ongoing)
What’s happening:
Developers are working on tools like the Cashonize Wallet and CashScript SDK to make it easier to create and manage tokenized assets on Bitcoin Cash. Upcoming events, like the October 2025 Electronic Cash Conference, will highlight projects such as NFT marketplaces and lending platforms backed by tokens (eCash).
Why it matters:
Expanding beyond simple payments, these tools open up new possibilities for Bitcoin Cash, including decentralized finance and digital collectibles. The success of this depends on how many developers use these tools and how regulations evolve around tokenized assets.
Conclusion
Bitcoin Cash is evolving from a simple payment system into a versatile platform that supports smart contracts and token creation. The recent 2025 VM Limits/BigInt upgrade set the stage technically, but the upcoming 2026–2027 updates will be crucial in determining if Bitcoin Cash can compete in the growing DeFi space. The key question is whether developer interest and merchant adoption will keep up with these technical improvements.
What updates are there in the BCH code base?
Bitcoin Cash’s software received major updates in mid-2025, focusing on making smart contracts more scalable and precise.
- VM Limits & BigInt (May 2025) – Increased computing power for decentralized finance (DeFi) and complex contracts.
- Dropped 32-Bit Support (July 2025) – Improved performance by focusing on modern 64-bit systems.
- Cross-Node Compatibility (May 2025) – Ensured smooth upgrades across different Bitcoin Cash implementations.
Deep Dive
1. VM Limits & BigInt (May 2025)
What happened: The update removed previous limits on how many operations a smart contract can perform and allowed much larger numbers to be used in calculations. This was done by increasing the size of data that can be processed and introducing a system to manage computing resources efficiently.
This upgrade supports advanced DeFi applications and precise calculations needed for things like cross-chain bridges and cryptographic proofs.
Why it matters: This makes Bitcoin Cash a strong, low-cost alternative to Ethereum for applications that require heavy math processing. Contracts now run over 100 times faster, and nodes process data 50% quicker. (Source)
2. Dropped 32-Bit Support (July 2025)
What happened: Bitcoin Cash stopped supporting older 32-bit computer systems, focusing only on 64-bit systems which are now standard.
This change was necessary because 32-bit systems can’t efficiently handle Bitcoin Cash’s larger block sizes, which are up to 2GB.
Why it matters: For most users, this won’t have much impact since modern computers use 64-bit processors. However, operators using older hardware will need to upgrade to continue running Bitcoin Cash nodes. (Source)
3. Cross-Node Compatibility (May 2025)
What happened: The upgrade was carefully tested with major Bitcoin Cash software providers to ensure all versions remain compatible.
Existing apps and wallets continue working without changes, while new developer tools take advantage of the improved capabilities.
Why it matters: This reduces problems when upgrading and helps developers and users adopt new features smoothly, supporting network stability. (Source)
Conclusion
Bitcoin Cash’s 2025 upgrades focus on making the network more scalable and precise for DeFi and business use, while phasing out support for outdated hardware. By removing computational limits and improving precision, Bitcoin Cash aims to compete with Ethereum in fast, math-heavy financial applications.
Why did the price of BCH go up?
Bitcoin Cash (BCH) increased by 2.43% in the last 24 hours, breaking away from its downward trend over the past week (-7.7%) and month (-13.84%). This rise is linked to optimism around a new ETF filing and some technical market rebounds, even though the overall cryptocurrency market remains cautious.
- T. Rowe Price’s ETF Filing (Positive Influence)
- Technical Bounce from Important Support Level (Mixed Signals)
- Altcoin Shifts During Market Uncertainty (Neutral Impact)
In-Depth Analysis
1. T. Rowe Price’s ETF Filing (Positive Influence)
Summary: On October 22, 2025, T. Rowe Price, a major asset manager with $1.77 trillion in assets, filed to launch an actively managed cryptocurrency ETF. This fund would include Bitcoin Cash (BCH) along with Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and Solana (SOL). The goal is to outperform the FTSE Crypto US Listed Index (Yahoo Finance).
Why it matters: Being part of a traditional financial ETF shows growing institutional interest and could bring more investment into BCH once the ETF is approved. BCH’s inclusion reflects its strong market presence and liquidity, despite recent price drops.
What to watch: The approval process by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), especially after recent government shutdowns. Current market odds suggest a 63% chance of approval by November 15.
2. Technical Bounce from Important Support Level (Mixed Signals)
Summary: BCH’s price bounced near its 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $486.62. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), a measure of momentum, moved out of oversold territory (currently at 33.94). Key price levels include resistance at $534.91 and support at $454.59, based on Fibonacci retracement analysis.
Why it matters: Short-term traders might see this as a chance to buy the dip. However, other indicators like the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remain bearish, and trading volume has dropped by 21% compared to the weekly average, suggesting the rebound may lack strong support.
What to watch: Whether BCH can maintain closing prices above $500 to confirm a sustained upward trend.
3. Altcoin Shifts During Market Uncertainty (Neutral Impact)
Summary: The crypto market’s fear and greed index is at 28, indicating “Fear.” BCH’s recent gains stand out compared to Bitcoin’s flat price movement. This pattern is similar to other altcoins like Dogecoin (DOGE) and Tron (TRX), which are gaining attention as traders look for undervalued opportunities.
Why it matters: BCH’s low price correlation with Bitcoin (-18.64% over 30 days) makes it attractive for diversifying crypto portfolios. However, its lower trading activity compared to Ethereum limits its potential for stable growth.
Conclusion
Bitcoin Cash’s recent price increase is driven by ETF-related optimism and technical support levels. However, broader challenges like a shrinking overall crypto market and unresolved issues such as the Mt. Gox repayment (with 34,689 BTC still pending) keep investors cautious.
Key points to monitor: Can BCH stay above $475 if ETF approvals face delays? Keep an eye on T. Rowe Price’s progress with the SEC and hourly trading volumes for signs of sustained momentum.