What could affect the price of BCH?

Bitcoin Cash is balancing technical momentum with broader market challenges.

1. Mt. Gox Repayments – Now extended to 2026, easing short-term selling pressure but keeping $4 billion in Bitcoin Cash and Bitcoin holdings on the radar.
2. Derivatives Speculation – Large traders have pushed open interest above $380 million, which could lead to more price swings if these positions change.
3. Network Upgrades – Planned smart contract improvements in May 2025 may boost developer activity and decentralized finance (DeFi) use on the network.

Deep Dive

1. Mt. Gox Overhang (Mixed Impact)

Overview: Mt. Gox, a former major cryptocurrency exchange, still holds about 34,690 BTC (around $4 billion) and 143,000 Bitcoin Cash (BCH) worth $79 million to repay creditors. These repayments are now delayed until October 2026. This delay helps avoid a sudden flood of coins hitting the market in 2025, which could have caused prices to drop sharply. However, when these coins are eventually sold—often through exchanges like Kraken—it could still impact prices over time. Past repayments caused only short-term dips, as the market adjusted to the new supply (CoinJournal).

What this means: The delay reduces immediate selling pressure, but Bitcoin Cash remains sensitive to changes in market sentiment if creditors decide to sell. Meanwhile, inflows into cryptocurrency ETFs (exchange-traded funds) totaling $921 million weekly (Seeking Alpha) might help balance selling pressure. Still, Bitcoin Cash’s relatively low daily trading volume of about $784 million means its price can be more volatile.

2. Derivatives-Driven Volatility (Bearish Risk)

Overview: Open interest in Bitcoin Cash derivatives—contracts that allow traders to bet on price movements—rose above $380 million in late October 2025, with 72% of these bets being long positions (expecting prices to rise). Recently, over $500 million in short positions (bets that prices would fall) were closed during an 11% price increase (Yahoo Finance). However, technical indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 57.66 and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) suggest the upward momentum might slow down.

What this means: Because many traders are using leverage (borrowed money), a price drop below $520—a key support level—could trigger a cascade of forced sell-offs, pushing the price down further toward the 200-day moving average near $508. Traders should watch funding rates (the cost to hold positions) and large wallet activity for signs of upcoming moves (CoinGlass).

3. Protocol Upgrades & Adoption (Bullish Catalyst)

Overview: The May 2025 Velma upgrade added features like VM Limits and BigInt, which allow Bitcoin Cash to support more complex smart contracts and interact with other blockchains. Active user addresses recently hit all-time highs, and projects like CashTokens are working to expand Bitcoin Cash’s use in small payments and digital collectibles (NFTs) (Levex).

What this means: These improvements could attract more developers and institutional investors. If Bitcoin Cash captures even 1% of Ethereum’s decentralized finance market (around $2 billion), its current $11 billion market value could grow significantly. Keep an eye on new partnerships with payment processors and Layer-2 scaling solutions that make transactions faster and cheaper.

Conclusion

Bitcoin Cash’s future depends on managing speculative risks while growing real-world use. Although derivatives trading and Mt. Gox repayments present short-term challenges, upcoming network upgrades offer a path to sustained growth if adoption picks up. The key question is whether Bitcoin Cash can use its low transaction fees to attract developers before competitors like Litecoin or Solana strengthen their positions. Monitoring weekly active users and exchange inflow/outflow data will provide early clues about its direction.

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What are people saying about BCH?

Conversations around Bitcoin Cash (BCH) are divided between hopes for a price breakout and excitement about a potential ETF approval, along with some positive news from developers. Here’s the quick summary:

1. Breakout watch – Traders are focused on $572 as a key level that could push the price higher or cause a pullback.
2. ETF buzz – Grayscale’s recent filing has sparked interest from big investors.
3. Developer updates – Improvements to CashTokens are boosting optimism among developers.

In-Depth Look

1. @PunkChainer: Neutral price movement near resistance

"The current price of Bitcoin Cash is $464.9... Resistance around $471.17."
– @PunkChainer (12.4K followers · 38K impressions · 2025-10-19 02:10 UTC)
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What this means: Bitcoin Cash is holding steady just below $471, showing neither strong buying nor selling pressure. If it breaks above this level, momentum could pick up. However, weak support levels below mean there’s still a risk of the price dropping.

2. @BTCHabercom: Grayscale’s ETF filing seen as positive

"Grayscale has submitted ETF applications for Bitcoin Cash (#BCH) in the U.S."
– @BTCHabercom (8.2K followers · 221K impressions · 2025-09-10 07:37 UTC)
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What this means: This is a positive sign for institutional investors. If approved, the ETF could bring more liquidity and interest to Bitcoin Cash, similar to what happened with Bitcoin’s ETF in 2024. However, regulatory approval timelines are still uncertain.

3. @eCash: Developer progress with CashTokens

"Mathieu Geukens is contributing to the CashScript language, tools, and SDK."
– @eCash (89K followers · 1.2M impressions · 2025-08-06 00:16 UTC)
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What this means: This is a positive sign for the long-term usefulness of Bitcoin Cash. Upgrades to smart contract capabilities could attract more developers and projects, though widespread adoption is still limited.

Summary

The outlook for Bitcoin Cash is mixed. Traders are watching the $572 resistance level closely—it was last tested in August 2025. At the same time, hopes for an ETF approval and ongoing developer activity provide some fundamental support. A daily close above $572 could confirm a bullish trend, while failure to break this level might lead to profit-taking and a drop toward the $520 support zone.

What is the latest news about BCH?

Bitcoin Cash is experiencing a volatile mix of optimism and delays related to Mt. Gox. Here’s the key information:

1. Mt. Gox Repayment Delayed to 2026 (October 28, 2025) – The third extension reduces immediate selling pressure concerns.
2. BCH Price Jumps 11% (October 27, 2025) – Increased trading activity and more users are driving the rally.
3. $820 Price Target in Sight (October 27, 2025) – Technical indicators suggest potential gains but also warn of possible corrections.

In-Depth Look

1. Mt. Gox Repayment Delayed to 2026 (October 28, 2025)

What Happened:
The trustees managing the Mt. Gox bankruptcy case have postponed repayments to creditors until October 2026. This delay is due to incomplete paperwork and technical challenges. So far, only about 19,500 creditors have received Bitcoin Cash (BCH) or Bitcoin (BTC), leaving roughly 34,689 BTC (worth about $4 billion) still undistributed. Past repayments through exchanges like Kraken and Bitstamp took between 20 and 90 days, indicating that future payments will likely be spread out over time.

What This Means for BCH:
This delay is somewhat positive in the short term because it reduces the risk of a large number of coins being sold all at once, which could push prices down. However, uncertainty remains about when the remaining BCH (around 143,000 coins owed) will be released, which could limit how high the price can go. (Cointribune)

2. BCH Price Jumps 11% (October 27, 2025)

What Happened:
Bitcoin Cash’s price rose 17% over the past week, reaching $563. This surge was driven by over $380 million in open derivatives contracts (bets on price movement) and a record number of active BCH addresses. Additionally, more than $500 million in short positions (bets that the price would fall) were closed out in just 24 hours as large investors moved into leveraged long positions (bets that the price will rise).

What This Means for BCH:
The price increase is largely driven by trading activity rather than organic growth in adoption. However, the growing number of active users supports the idea that BCH is gaining traction. The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio is at 78%, which is below previous highs, suggesting there’s still room for the price to rise. Watch the $550 level closely—if the price falls below this, it could trigger more forced selling. (Yahoo Finance)

3. $820 Price Target in Sight (October 27, 2025)

What Happened:
Bitcoin Cash broke above a short-term downward trendline on the 4-hour chart, with analysts targeting $820 if the price stays above $572, based on Fibonacci extension levels (a tool used to predict price movements). However, the Money Flow Index (MFI), which measures buying and selling pressure, is at 72—indicating the asset may be overbought and due for a pullback to around $481.

What This Means for BCH:
Technical indicators are generally positive but depend on the overall market mood. If the broader altcoin market continues to perform well (the Altcoin Season Index is at 31, up 15% in the past week), BCH could see further gains. However, Bitcoin’s dominance at 59% means it still holds significant influence over the market, which could limit BCH’s upside. (CCN)

Conclusion

Bitcoin Cash is balancing promising technical signals with uncertainties from the Mt. Gox repayment delays and heavy trading speculation. While increased derivatives activity and network use point to upward momentum, the rally depends heavily on futures markets, making it vulnerable to sudden changes. The big question remains: can BCH break free from broader crypto market trends and maintain its upward move?

What is expected in the development of BCH?

Bitcoin Cash is making important updates to improve its technology:

1. VM Limits & BigInt Upgrade (May 15, 2025) – This update boosts smart contract abilities and supports decentralized finance (DeFi) tools.
2. OP_EVAL & Pay-to-Script (2026–2027) – Planned upgrades to make transactions more flexible and support advanced financial uses.

In-Depth Look

1. VM Limits & BigInt Upgrade (May 15, 2025)

What happened:
On May 15, 2025, Bitcoin Cash activated two key improvements:

• VM Limits: Removed a previous limit on how many operations a smart contract could perform, increased the size limit for data elements, and made resource use more efficient.
• BigInt: Allowed calculations with very large numbers, which is important for precise financial and cryptographic tasks.

These changes made smart contracts run over 100 times faster and cut the cost for nodes processing transactions by half. The upgrade was designed to work smoothly with existing systems (Levex).

Why it matters:
This upgrade opens the door for Bitcoin Cash to support DeFi applications like lending platforms and automated market makers (AMMs), as well as connecting with other blockchains. The main challenge is getting developers and users to adopt these new features quickly.

2. OP_EVAL & Pay-to-Script (2026–2027)

What’s planned:
Future upgrades aim to:

• OP_EVAL: Make it easier to run smart contracts by allowing scripts to be checked dynamically during transactions.
• Pay-to-Script: Allow more flexible payment options, including multi-signature and conditional payments.

These features are designed to support more complex financial tools and improve privacy, but the exact timeline is still being worked out.

Why it matters:
These upgrades could make Bitcoin Cash a strong, low-cost alternative to Ethereum for complex smart contracts. However, success depends on developer agreement and thorough testing, so the impact is still uncertain.

Summary

Bitcoin Cash is evolving from a simple payment system into a more programmable platform. The May 2025 upgrade already enables basic DeFi functions, and upcoming proposals aim to attract enterprise users. While the technology is advancing, widespread developer support will be key to its success.

The big question: Can Bitcoin Cash deliver scalable, affordable solutions faster than other leading blockchains?

What updates are there in the BCH code base?

Bitcoin Cash recently upgraded its smart contract capabilities and computing power.

1. VM Limits & BigInt Upgrade (May 15, 2025) – This update allows for more complex decentralized finance (DeFi) apps and precise calculations.
2. CashScript Development Progress (2025) – New tools are making it easier to create smart contracts.

Deep Dive

1. VM Limits & BigInt Upgrade (May 15, 2025)

Overview: This upgrade removed previous technical limits, enabling Bitcoin Cash to support more advanced financial applications while keeping transaction fees very low.

The VM Limits upgrade increased the size of data elements from 520 to 10,000 bytes and removed the cap of 201 operations per contract. The BigInt feature allows calculations with very large numbers (up to 10,000 bytes), which is important for cryptography and connecting different blockchains. Together, these improvements increased contract capacity by over 100 times and cut the worst-case processing costs for nodes in half.

What this means: This is a positive development for Bitcoin Cash because developers can now build sophisticated DeFi platforms—like lending services or automated market makers (AMMs)—with fees less than a penny. This makes Bitcoin Cash a more affordable option compared to Ethereum for high-volume transactions.
(Source)

2. CashScript Development Progress (2025)

Overview: Work continues on CashScript, a programming language designed for writing smart contracts on Bitcoin Cash, along with tools to make app development easier.

Mathieu Geukens, a lead developer for Bitcoin Cash, is improving the CashScript software development kit (SDK) and the Cashonize wallet. He will present at the October 2025 Electronic Cash Conference about making Bitcoin Script more practical for real-world applications.

What this means: In the short term, this is neutral for Bitcoin Cash since its success depends on how many developers start using these tools. However, better development tools could attract more creators to the Bitcoin Cash ecosystem, potentially increasing its usefulness over time.
(Source)

Conclusion

Bitcoin Cash’s 2025 upgrades focus on improving scalability and giving developers more flexibility, directly addressing the high fees often seen on Ethereum. With the VM Limits and BigInt features already active, keep an eye out for new DeFi projects that take advantage of these improvements. Bitcoin Cash could become a strong player in blockchain solutions for institutions and high-volume users.