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Why did the price of ADA go up?

Cardano (ADA) jumped 11.18% in the last 24 hours, outperforming the overall crypto market, which rose 5.45%. Here’s why:

  1. Market rebound – The crypto market bounced back after a sharp drop on Friday, lifting ADA along with Ethereum (ETH), Binance Coin (BNB), and Dogecoin (DOGE).
  2. Big investors buying – Large holders, often called whales, purchased about 140 million ADA (worth $89.6 million) during the dip, showing confidence in the coin.
  3. Technical recovery – ADA bounced back from a key price range of $0.62 to $0.66, supported by positive technical indicators like Fibonacci retracement and the Relative Strength Index (RSI).

Deep Dive

1. Market Recovery After Flash Crash (Mixed Impact)

Overview:
On October 13, the crypto market lost $500 billion due to tariff threats from former President Trump and technical issues at exchanges. Since then, the market has recovered, with ADA rising over 10%, alongside other major coins like ETH (+10.5%) and Solana (SOL) (+10%).

What this means:
ADA’s price increase reflects a return of investor confidence. However, the market remains unpredictable. For example, the total amount of leveraged bets (open interest in derivatives) increased nearly 10% in 24 hours, showing traders are taking on more risk. While ADA did better than Bitcoin (BTC), which dropped 4.9%, the recovery is still fragile because of ongoing global uncertainties.

What to watch:
Keep an eye on Bitcoin staying stable above $115,000 and trends in altcoins (smaller cryptocurrencies). The Altcoin Season Index, which measures how altcoins perform compared to Bitcoin, is currently at 41 and has dropped 34% over the past week.

2. Whale Buying & Changes in Derivatives (Positive Signs)

Overview:
Between October 10 and 11, wallets holding between 10 million and 100 million ADA added about 140 million ADA, worth $89.6 million, according to Santiment data. Funding rates for ADA derivatives turned positive (+0.1544), indicating traders are leaning toward buying after last week’s sell-off.

What this means:
Whales tend to buy ADA when it’s priced between $0.60 and $0.65, a range that has limited losses since July 2025. Traders in derivatives markets are now more optimistic, with open interest stabilizing at $284 million after dropping 20% during the crash.

What to watch:
Look for continued withdrawals of ADA from exchanges (over 1 billion ADA has been withdrawn this year) and whether smaller investors follow the whales’ buying behavior.

3. Technical Bounce From Key Support Levels (Bullish Outlook)

Overview:
ADA bounced back from the $0.62 to $0.66 support zone and filled a price gap near $0.667 on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). The RSI, a momentum indicator, rose to 38.51, and the Chaikin Money Flow, which measures buying and selling pressure, turned positive. The Fibonacci 38.2% retracement level at $0.715 now acts as resistance.

What this means:
This bounce fits with historical buying zones, but ADA needs to break above $0.72 (the 50-day exponential moving average) to confirm upward momentum. If ADA falls below $0.69, it could retest the $0.62 level, where $480 million in liquidations happened last week.

What to watch:
A daily close above $0.72 would be a strong signal, potentially pushing ADA toward $0.76 to $0.78, a resistance area seen since August.

Conclusion

ADA’s recent rise is driven by a recovering market, smart buying by large investors, and strong technical support. However, ongoing economic uncertainty and lower trading volume (down 15.4% in 24 hours) suggest caution.

Key point: Watch if ADA can hold above $0.69 and benefit from the upcoming decision on Grayscale’s ETF, which has an 87% chance of approval according to Polymarket.


What could affect the price of ADA?

Cardano is navigating technical improvements, regulatory decisions, and changing market moods.

  1. Major Protocol Upgrades – A $71 million community-funded plan aims to improve speed and compatibility (positive outlook)
  2. Spot ETF Decision – The SEC will decide by October 26, which could open the door for big investors (uncertain)
  3. Large Investor Activity – Big buyers are purchasing during price drops, showing confidence in a rebound (positive outlook)

Deep Dive

1. Core Protocol Development (Positive Outlook)

Overview:
The Cardano community approved spending 96 million ADA (about $71 million) on a 2025 development plan led by Input Output. This plan focuses on improving scalability with Ouroboros Leios, enabling faster small transactions through Hydra (a layer-2 solution), and optimizing network nodes. The funds are released only after reaching specific milestones and are audited every quarter (CoinDesk).

What this means:
These upgrades aim to fix Cardano’s past issues with handling lots of transactions quickly. If successful, this could attract more developers and real-world projects to use Cardano. Historically, big upgrades like Ethereum’s EIP-1559 have led to price increases when adoption picks up.

2. ETF Approval Odds (Uncertain Impact)

Overview:
Grayscale’s application for a spot ADA ETF is awaiting a decision from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) by October 26. Current market odds suggest a 75% chance of approval. If approved, it could bring in institutional investors similar to what happened with Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. If denied, it might cause some selling pressure (Bitget).

What this means:
Approval would officially recognize ADA as a tradable commodity and likely attract large-scale investors. However, if the SEC delays or rejects the ETF, ADA might continue to lag behind competitors like Solana (SOL) and Ripple (XRP), which have clearer regulatory paths.

3. Large Investor & Futures Activity (Positive Outlook)

Overview:
During October’s 20% price drop, large investors (often called “whales”) bought 140 million ADA (around $89.6 million). At the same time, futures contracts’ open interest rose to $284 million, with positive funding rates indicating bullish sentiment (Santiment).

What this means:
Historically, when big investors accumulate ADA, it often precedes price rallies—like in 2021 when ADA reached $3. The current buying near $0.62–$0.66 support levels matches analysts’ predictions of a breakout to $1.32–$2, assuming Bitcoin’s price stabilizes.

Conclusion

Cardano’s price outlook depends on successfully rolling out its technical upgrades and the SEC’s ETF decision, with strong support from large investors providing some optimism. While the upgrades could boost developer interest, ADA still faces risks from regulatory delays and shifts in the altcoin market. Will the SEC’s October ETF decision spark the “altseason” ADA needs to push back above $1?


What are people saying about ADA?

The Cardano community is experiencing a mix of excitement and challenges. Here’s what’s currently happening:

  1. Positive chart signals suggest the price could rise sharply
  2. Large investors (whales) are buying more ADA despite price ups and downs
  3. ADA is trending on social media for several days
  4. There are ongoing debates about how to manage Cardano’s funds

In-Depth Look

1. Falling wedge breakout points to $2.30 – bullish

According to @UniChartz, ADA recently broke out of a "falling wedge" pattern, which is a technical sign that the price could rally by 155% to reach $2.30 if it stays above $0.89.
– @UniChartz (12.3K followers · 38K impressions · 2025-08-27 14:08 UTC)
See original post
What this means: Traders who use charts believe ADA’s 135% price jump in July might be just the beginning. However, some indicators show the price is overbought, and $0.89 remains a key level to hold for this rally to continue.

2. Community divided over strategy – mixed feelings

A report from CoinMarketCap highlights that discussions about ADA ETFs (exchange-traded funds) and integrating Bitcoin-based decentralized finance (DeFi) have caused disagreements within the Cardano community. One prominent figure, @cardano_whale, even stepped away from social media due to these "unhealthy" debates.
What this means: Uncertainty about Cardano’s future plans could slow down interest from big investors until the community agrees on key issues like managing treasury funds and connecting with other blockchains.

3. Whales buying 180 million ADA weekly – bullish sign

Data shared by @ali_charts shows that addresses holding between 10 million and 100 million ADA added 180 million coins last week, a pattern often seen before major price increases.
– @ali_charts (2025-05-29)
View analysis
What this means: Large investors seem to be preparing for a possible boost from an ADA ETF approval. However, regular investors remain split, with about 56% feeling optimistic according to a recent survey by TheBlockchainMedia.

4. ADA trending on social media for 5 days – positive buzz

Cardano’s ADA has been trending on 𝕏 (formerly Twitter) for five days straight, according to @Cardanians_io.
– @Cardanians_io (2025-09-12)
See post
What this means: ADA’s social media engagement reached over 2 million interactions (per LunarCrush), although its share of overall crypto conversations dropped from 35% in 2021 to 2.5%, showing that the crypto community’s attention is more spread out now.

Conclusion

The outlook for Cardano is mixed. While technical indicators and whale buying suggest the price could rise, challenges like the $0.89 resistance level and a large amount of open interest ($1.74 billion, up 72%) will test investor confidence. Keep an eye on the adoption of the Hydra upgrade this quarter—if it successfully increases transaction speed (TPS), it could strengthen ADA’s position as a scalable blockchain.


What is the latest news about ADA?

Cardano is showing cautious optimism as big investors, known as whales, are buying more ADA, and hopes for an ETF approval are growing. Here’s the latest update:

  1. Whales Buy ADA Dip (October 11, 2025) – Large holders added 140 million ADA (about $89.6 million) after a market drop, signaling confidence.
  2. SEC ADA ETF Deadline Approaches (October 26, 2025) – A decision on Grayscale’s spot ADA ETF could open the door for more institutional investment.
  3. Analyst Targets $2 Price (October 12, 2025) – A technical pattern suggests ADA could break out higher if it stays above $0.69.

Deep Dive

1. Whales Buy ADA Dip (October 11, 2025)

What happened: After ADA’s price dropped 20% to $0.62 during a market crash, wallets holding between 10 million and 100 million ADA increased their holdings by 140 million ADA, worth about $89.6 million. Data from derivatives markets showed a shift toward more long positions, indicating renewed buying interest.

What this means: The fact that large investors are buying and open interest remains steady at $284 million suggests confidence in ADA’s recovery. However, some indicators show that institutions are still cautious. (AMBCrypto)

2. SEC ADA ETF Deadline Approaches (October 26, 2025)

What happened: The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will decide on Grayscale’s spot ADA ETF by October 26. Market odds favor approval at 87%, based on similar approvals for Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. If approved, this could lead to increased liquidity and investment in ADA.

What this means: Approval would officially recognize ADA as a regulated asset, attracting more institutional investors. If rejected, recent gains might reverse, but Cardano’s long-term growth in decentralized finance (DeFi) could continue. (U.Today)

3. Analyst Targets $2 Price (October 12, 2025)

What happened: Analyst Ali Martinez spotted ADA trading within a symmetrical triangle pattern since early 2025. A breakout above $0.95 could push the price to between $1.35 and $2 by early 2026. However, if ADA falls below $0.69, this pattern would be invalidated.

What this means: The technical outlook supports the idea of a price increase, backed by whale buying. Still, overall market sentiment, measured by the Fear & Greed Index at 40/100, suggests caution. (Finbold)

Conclusion

Cardano is showing resilience thanks to whale buying, but uncertainty remains due to broader market conditions. The SEC’s decision on the ADA ETF could be a key turning point. Will approval boost ADA’s appeal to big investors, or will the market stay in a holding pattern?


What is expected in the development of ADA?

Cardano’s development plan focuses on making the network faster, improving governance, and encouraging real-world use. Here are the key upcoming milestones:

  1. Midnight Glacier Airdrop (November 2025) – A privacy-focused token giveaway through the new Midnight sidechain.
  2. Grayscale ETF Decision (October 26, 2025) – The U.S. SEC’s deadline to approve or deny a spot ADA ETF.
  3. Core Protocol Upgrades (2025–2026) – Major improvements called Leios, Hydra, and Project Acropolis to enhance performance.
  4. Cardano Card Launch (Q4 2025) – Introduction of physical and virtual debit cards linked directly to ADA wallets.

Deep Dive

1. Midnight Glacier Airdrop (November 2025)

What it is: The Midnight sidechain, which focuses on privacy, will distribute $NIGHT tokens to wallets holding at least $100 in ADA, Bitcoin, Ethereum, or other major cryptocurrencies. To claim, users need self-custody wallets like Ledger or Trezor and will use a “null transaction” method.
Why it matters: This encourages more people to use Cardano by rewarding them with tokens, potentially increasing ADA’s adoption. However, some recipients might sell their tokens quickly, which could cause short-term price drops.

2. Grayscale ETF Decision (October 26, 2025)

What it is: The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will decide whether to approve Grayscale’s spot Cardano ETF (source). If approved, ADA would become more accessible to mainstream investors through regulated U.S. markets.
Why it matters: Approval could bring in large institutional investments, boosting ADA’s price and credibility. If delayed or denied, it might hurt market sentiment. Other cryptocurrencies like Solana (SOL) and XRP are facing similar regulatory challenges.

3. Core Protocol Upgrades (2025–2026)

What it is: Cardano’s community has approved $71 million in funding (source) to support these upgrades:

4. Cardano Card Launch (Q4 2025)

What it is: Cardano will introduce physical and virtual debit cards connected to ADA wallets, compatible with Apple Pay and Google Pay (source).
Why it matters: This makes it easier for users to spend ADA in everyday life. Still, it will compete with existing crypto debit cards, and its success will depend on merchant acceptance and fees.

Conclusion

Cardano’s roadmap combines important technical upgrades like Leios and Hydra with efforts to grow its ecosystem through the ETF decision, Midnight airdrop, and payment cards. The SEC’s decision and the Midnight rollout will be key tests for ADA’s short-term momentum, while long-term success depends on delivering on scalability promises. How will these milestones affect Cardano’s standing compared to Ethereum and Solana?


What updates are there in the ADA code base?

Cardano’s technology is moving forward with important upgrades and community decisions.

  1. Ouroboros Leios Acceleration (September 2025) – A major update to how Cardano processes transactions to make it faster and more scalable.
  2. $71M Core Dev Funding (August 2025) – The community approved a $71 million budget to support ongoing improvements.
  3. Account Enhancement CIP (August 2025) – Allows users to pay transaction fees using tokens other than ADA, making small payments easier.

Deep Dive

1. Ouroboros Leios Acceleration (September 2025)

Overview: Charles Hoskinson, Cardano’s founder, highlighted the need to implement Ouroboros Leios, a new system that helps the network process transactions faster while keeping it secure and decentralized.

This upgrade uses advanced technology called recursive SNARKs to group transactions together, aiming for almost instant confirmation times. It also reduces the work needed by network participants, improving overall efficiency.

What this means: This is good news for ADA holders because faster transaction finality can improve experiences for decentralized finance (DeFi) and gaming apps, attracting more developers. However, delays in launching this upgrade could make Cardano less competitive. (Source)

2. $71M Core Dev Funding (August 2025)

Overview: Cardano’s community voted to release $71 million from its treasury to fund a year-long plan focused on improving the network.

The money will support projects like Hydra (which helps scale transactions), Mithril (which makes syncing the network easier), and Project Acropolis (which redesigns how nodes operate). Funds are released only when specific goals are met, overseen by Intersect, a community group ensuring accountability.

What this means: This is a neutral development for ADA. It guarantees ongoing improvements but comes with risks if the projects don’t meet deadlines. If successful, it could speed up transactions and provide better tools for developers, but delays might hurt community confidence. (Source)

3. Account Enhancement CIP (August 2025)

Overview: A new Cardano Improvement Proposal (CIP) suggests allowing users to pay transaction fees with tokens other than ADA.

This would enable decentralized apps (dApps) to charge very small fees, like fractions of a cent, and simplify how governance works by removing the need to hold a minimum amount of ADA in smart contracts.

What this means: This is positive for ADA because making it easier to use dApps could increase adoption. However, the technical challenges and security checks needed might delay when this feature becomes available. (Source)

Conclusion

Cardano is steadily improving its technology through community-backed upgrades aimed at making the network faster and easier to use. While Ouroboros Leios and Hydra focus on solving technical limits, the Account Enhancement CIP could make dApps more accessible to everyone. The key question remains: can Cardano’s careful development keep pace with the growing demand for quicker and cheaper transactions?