Why did the price of ADA go up?

Cardano (ADA) increased by 2.5% in the last 24 hours, outperforming the overall cryptocurrency market, which rose by 0.89%. This growth is driven by excitement around ETFs, positive technical signals, and important upgrades to the Cardano network.

1. ETF Buzz – T. Rowe Price’s new crypto ETF includes ADA, attracting more institutional investors.
2. Technical Recovery – ADA is holding key support levels, showing signs of a potential price rebound.
3. Network Improvements – $71 million approved for core upgrades, supporting long-term growth.

Deep Dive

1. ETF Speculation & Institutional Interest (Positive Outlook)

Overview:
T. Rowe Price, a major asset manager with $1.77 trillion in assets, filed for a crypto ETF on October 22, 2025, which includes Cardano (ADA) among its assets (Bloomberg). This follows JPMorgan’s recent decision to accept Bitcoin and Ethereum as loan collateral, showing growing acceptance of cryptocurrencies by big financial institutions.

What this means:
When ETFs get approved, they usually bring more money and credibility to the assets they include. Although ADA-specific ETFs have faced delays due to the U.S. government shutdown (Yahoo Finance), the chances of an ADA ETF approval in 2025 have increased to 77% from 60% last month, according to Polymarket.

What to watch:
Keep an eye on the SEC’s decision regarding Grayscale’s ADA ETF application, due by October 26, and updates on T. Rowe Price’s fund.

2. Technical Rebound Signals (Mixed Outlook)

Overview:
After dropping 20% in September, ADA bounced back to the $0.64 support level. Analysts note a positive sign called “bullish divergence” on the 4-hour chart, where the Relative Strength Index (RSI) rose from 38 to 55 even though the price stayed mostly flat.

What this means:
The MACD indicator, which helps track momentum, turned positive for the first time in two weeks, suggesting selling pressure is easing. However, ADA still needs to break above key moving averages between $0.69 and $0.77 to confirm a short-term upward trend.

Key level:
If ADA closes above $0.70, it could spark a rally toward resistance levels around $0.78 to $0.82.

3. Network Development & Whale Activity (Positive Outlook)

Overview:
On August 4, the Cardano community approved spending 96 million ADA (about $63 million) on important network upgrades, including improvements to the Ouroboros Leios protocol. At the same time, large investors (“whales”) have purchased 120 million ADA (around $79 million) in the past week (CryptoPotato).

What this means:
These upgrades aim to make Cardano faster and better at supporting decentralized finance (DeFi) applications. Whale buying often signals confidence and can lead to price increases. However, futures market interest has dropped by 23% to $677 million, showing less speculative trading.

Conclusion

Cardano’s recent price increase is driven by optimism around ETFs, technical signs of recovery, and strategic network upgrades. While short-term momentum is still uncertain, growing institutional support and ongoing improvements to the Cardano platform strengthen the case for a sustained rebound.

Key watch: Can ADA stay above $0.65 and take advantage of ETF-related news in the next 48 hours?

What could affect the price of ADA?

Cardano's price is balancing between upcoming technology upgrades and uncertain government regulations.

1. Upgrade Progress (Positive) – A $70 million community-funded plan aims to improve speed and support decentralized finance (DeFi).
2. ETF Decision Delays (Mixed) – The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) postponed its decision due to a government shutdown, with a 77% chance of approval by 2025.
3. Large Holder Selling (Negative) – Big investors sold 350 million ADA in one week, signaling caution in the market.

Deep Dive

1. Technology Upgrades (Positive Impact)

Overview:
The Cardano community voted (74% in favor) to use $70 million from its treasury to fund important upgrades. These include Ouroboros Leios, which improves how the network reaches agreement; Hydra, which helps process many small transactions faster; and Project Acropolis, which makes network nodes more flexible. Payments for these upgrades will be made as milestones are met, with a group called Intersect managing the process.

What this means:
If these upgrades succeed, Cardano could handle 2 to 3 times more transactions (Cardano Forum), making it more attractive for developers and users in the DeFi space. Past upgrades, like Shelley in 2020, led to strong price increases over several months. However, delays or technical problems could hurt investor confidence.

2. ETF Regulatory Status (Mixed Impact)

Overview:
The SEC missed its October 24 deadline to decide on Grayscale’s Cardano ETF application because of the U.S. government shutdown. Traders on Polymarket estimate a 77% chance the ETF will be approved by 2025 (Yahoo Finance).

What this means:
If approved, the ETF could bring in significant institutional investment, similar to what happened with Bitcoin ETFs. But continued delays might cause Cardano to lag behind competitors like Solana (SOL), which already have ETF applications moving forward. The government shutdown adds short-term uncertainty, with only a 7% chance of resolution by October 31 according to Polymarket.

3. Large Investor Activity (Negative Impact)

Overview:
Wallets holding between 100 million and 1 billion ADA sold 350 million tokens (worth about $229 million) in the past week. Smaller retail investors bought up much of this supply. Meanwhile, futures trading interest dropped 62% since September to $677 million (Cryptopotato).

What this means:
Big investors are likely taking profits after ADA’s 89% gain over the past year. Because trading volume is relatively low—ADA’s 24-hour turnover is 3.56%, compared to Bitcoin’s 5.2% and Ethereum’s 6.8%—there’s a higher risk of price drops. If ADA falls below $0.54 (its low point in August), it could trigger more selling and price declines.

Conclusion

Cardano’s future depends on successfully rolling out upgrades while managing selling pressure from large holders and regulatory delays. Key levels to watch are the $0.54 support price and the timeline for the ETF decision. Approval could confirm ADA’s status as a “security” and attract over $1 billion in new investments. The big question is whether the Ouroboros Leios upgrade, expected by early 2026, can offset short-term selling pressure.

What are people saying about ADA?

Cardano’s community is buzzing about a possible $1 price target and hopes for an ETF approval, while big investors (whales) are causing some price swings. Here’s what’s trending:

1. ETF optimism – Grayscale’s filing with the SEC has traders betting on a 75% chance of approval
2. Whale activity – 180 million ADA coins bought, then 270 million sold, causing price fluctuations
3. Technology upgrades – Hydra’s new capability to handle 1 million transactions per second (TPS) and the Midnight privacy feature are boosting confidence

Deep Dive

1. @Grayscale: ETF approval boosts $1 price bets

“Bloomberg analysts predict a 75% chance of a Cardano ETF by 2026”
– Grayscale filed for an ETF in February 2025, with Polymarket showing an 87% chance of approval by October 2025
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What this means: If the SEC approves the ETF, it could bring a lot of institutional investors into Cardano, potentially driving the price up. However, the SEC’s decision is delayed until October 26, so the market remains cautious for now.

2. @santiment: Big investors buying and selling

“180 million ADA bought within 48 hours, then 270 million sold a few days later”
– Large holders are showing mixed behavior between August and September 2025, moving $157 million worth of ADA
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What this means: Short-term selling pressure from profit-taking is causing price dips, but long-term holders remain confident. This tug-of-war is keeping the price volatile around $0.75 to $0.85.

3. @InputOutputHK: Hydra upgrade reaches 1 million TPS

“Leios upgrade allows parallel processing, key for scaling decentralized finance (DeFi)”
– Launch of the Midnight sidechain and deployment of Node version 10.5.1 in October 2025
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What this means: This is a positive sign for Cardano’s usefulness. The network can now handle transaction speeds comparable to Visa, although the total value locked (TVL) in Cardano’s DeFi ecosystem ($388 million) is still behind Ethereum’s.

Conclusion

The outlook for Cardano is mixed. While hopes for an ETF and improvements like Hydra’s scalability excite supporters, concerns remain due to large amounts of ADA leaving exchanges (over $932 million this year) and slower growth in DeFi usage. The key event to watch is the SEC’s decision on Grayscale’s ETF on October 26. Approval could push ADA toward $1, while rejection might keep the price stable or lower for a while.

What is the latest news about ADA?

Cardano is facing delays due to regulatory hold-ups but shows strong technical resilience, with hopes for an ETF approval still alive. Here’s the latest:

1. SEC Misses Deadline Amid Government Shutdown (October 24, 2025) – Grayscale’s Cardano ETF approval is delayed as the U.S. government shutdown continues into its third week.
2. Price Support Holds Despite Bearish Signs (October 24, 2025) – ADA is trading around $0.65, with analysts watching $0.54 as a key support level.
3. T. Rowe Price Files for Crypto ETF (October 22, 2025) – The investment firm includes ADA in its new actively managed crypto ETF application.

Deep Dive

1. SEC Misses Deadline Amid Government Shutdown (October 24, 2025)

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has missed its deadline to decide on Grayscale’s Cardano ETF because of the ongoing government shutdown that started on October 1. This shutdown has paused SEC operations, delaying decisions on several crypto ETFs, including three for XRP and one for Cardano. Andrew Jacobson, general counsel at Halliday, expects that once the government reopens, ETF approvals will move quickly. Current market predictions give about a 77% chance that the ADA ETF will be approved in 2025.

What this means: The delay creates uncertainty for Cardano’s adoption by institutional investors but keeps hope alive. If approved, the ETF could bring more investment into ADA, especially since Cardano meets the SEC’s updated rules. (Yahoo Finance)

2. Price Support Holds Despite Bearish Signs (October 24, 2025)

Cardano’s price is around $0.65, testing a support zone between $0.54 and $0.60. Analysts note that futures market interest has dropped significantly—from $1.8 billion earlier this year to $677 million now—and large holders have sold 350 million ADA in the past week. Technical indicators like the MACD suggest that the downward momentum might be slowing.

What this means: While short-term sentiment looks weak, Cardano’s long-term outlook remains positive. Holding above $0.54 could stabilize the price, but if it falls below, lower support levels might be tested. (CryptoPotato)

3. T. Rowe Price Files for Crypto ETF (October 22, 2025)

T. Rowe Price has filed for an actively managed crypto ETF that includes Cardano (ADA), Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and other assets. This fund will hold actual cryptocurrencies and stablecoins without using leverage.

What this means: This move shows growing institutional interest in Cardano, even as ETF approvals face delays. If approved, it could expand ADA’s investor base, though regulatory challenges remain.

Conclusion

Cardano is navigating a mix of challenges and opportunities. Regulatory delays are slowing ETF approvals, but strong institutional interest and technical factors suggest potential for growth. With the SEC shutdown expected to end soon, the question remains: will Cardano’s ETF prospects spark renewed bullish momentum?

What is expected in the development of ADA?

Cardano’s roadmap is focused on improving scalability, governance, and real-world use cases, with these key milestones:

1. Midnight Privacy Airdrop (November 2025) – Distribute $NIGHT tokens through Ledger and Trezor wallets to expand privacy-focused applications.
2. Cardano Card Launch (Q4 2025) – A self-custody debit card for ADA and other cryptocurrencies, compatible with Apple Pay and Google Pay.
3. Ouroboros Leios Upgrade (Q1 2026) – A consensus protocol update designed to increase transaction speed while keeping the network decentralized.
4. Real-World Asset (RWA) Tokenization Initiative (2026) – A $10 million+ program to tokenize physical assets like commodities and support institutional decentralized finance (DeFi).

In-Depth Look

1. Midnight Privacy Airdrop (November 2025)

What it is:
Midnight is Cardano’s privacy-focused sidechain. It will distribute $NIGHT tokens to ADA holders through a fun, interactive process called the “Glacier Drop” (InputOutputHK). The claim process supports Ledger and Trezor hardware wallets and uses a unique security method that avoids traditional signatures.

Why it matters:
This could boost ADA adoption by attracting institutions and developers interested in privacy-compliant smart contracts. However, there are risks like regulatory challenges and competition from established privacy coins such as Monero.

2. Cardano Card Launch (Q4 2025)

What it is:
A physical and virtual debit card that lets users spend ADA, Bitcoin, and stablecoins directly, while earning rewards from staking. It will work with major payment platforms like Apple Pay and Google Pay, thanks to partnerships with leading payment processors (Cardanians_io).

Why it matters:
This could make using ADA and other cryptocurrencies easier for everyday purchases, appealing to retail users. Success depends on how widely merchants accept the card and how competitive the fees are compared to traditional debit cards.

3. Ouroboros Leios Upgrade (Q1 2026)

What it is:
An upgrade to Cardano’s core consensus protocol aiming to increase transaction speeds by 10 to 100 times without compromising decentralization. This project is funded by a $71 million community-approved treasury allocation (CCN).

Why it matters:
Faster transaction finality could open the door for Cardano to support high-frequency decentralized finance (DeFi) applications and gaming. However, there could be delays, as seen with previous projects like Hydra.

4. Real-World Asset (RWA) Tokenization Initiative (2026)

What it is:
The Cardano Foundation plans to tokenize over $10 million worth of physical assets such as lithium and granite, working with partners like MembersCap. This effort is supported by Cardano Improvement Proposals CIP-0113 and CIP-0143, which enable programmable tokens (Bitcoinist).

Why it matters:
If successful, this could attract institutional investors to Cardano by bridging traditional assets with blockchain technology. Challenges include navigating regulatory requirements and ensuring the market is ready for blockchain-based asset trading.

Conclusion

Cardano’s roadmap combines technical improvements (like Ouroboros Leios and Midnight) with practical user products (Cardano Card) and efforts to bring institutions onboard (RWA tokenization). While there are many positive signs, it’s important to watch how well Cardano manages scalability upgrades like Hydra and governance processes as decentralized representatives oversee milestone-based funding. Could 2026 be the year Cardano moves from being seen as an “academic blockchain” to achieving mainstream adoption?

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What updates are there in the ADA code base?

Cardano is making important updates to improve how its network scales, how it’s governed, and the tools available for developers.

1. $71M Fund Approved for Core Upgrades (August 4, 2025) – Money allocated to projects like Hydra, Leios, and modular nodes to boost performance.
2. Account Upgrade Proposal (August 5, 2025) – Allows fees to be paid in different tokens, making apps more flexible.
3. Hydra Layer-2 Test Success (June 26, 2025) – Demonstrated the ability to handle over 1 million transactions per second, a big leap in speed.

In-Depth Look

1. $71M Fund for Core Protocol Upgrades (August 4, 2025)

What happened: Cardano’s community voted to spend $71 million over the next year on key improvements to the network’s core technology. This is the first time such a big decision was made directly on the blockchain through community voting.

Key projects funded include:

• Ouroboros Leios: An upgrade to the system that helps transactions confirm faster and increases the number of transactions the network can handle, all while keeping it decentralized.
• Hydra: A second-layer solution designed to make small transactions cheaper and faster, which is great for things like decentralized finance (DeFi) and gaming.
• Project Acropolis: A new way to build and manage nodes (the computers that run the network) to make it easier for developers to get started.

Why it matters: These upgrades are positive for Cardano’s ADA token because they improve network speed and usability, which can attract more developers and users. The funding is tied to clear goals, so progress will be tracked. (Source)

2. Account Enhancement CIP (August 5, 2025)

What happened: A new proposal allows smart contracts on Cardano to accept transaction fees in any native token, not just ADA. This also makes small transactions easier to handle.

Why it matters: In the short term, this change doesn’t directly affect ADA’s price, but it’s a positive step for the long term. It makes decentralized apps (dApps) more user-friendly and opens up new possibilities, like very low-cost fees for voting in governance decisions. Developers see this as a way to grow Cardano’s DeFi ecosystem. (Source)

3. Hydra Layer-2 Breakthrough (June 26, 2025)

What happened: Tests showed that Hydra can handle over 1 million transactions per second, which is much faster than Cardano’s current capacity of about 250 transactions per second.

Why it matters: This is a big deal for ADA because it means Cardano could support large-scale uses like everyday retail payments or data from Internet of Things (IoT) devices. This fits with Cardano’s plan to scale its network step-by-step. (Source)

Conclusion

Cardano is moving toward a more modular and scalable network with strong community involvement in decision-making. The $71 million funding and Hydra’s progress show a focus on real technical improvements rather than hype. The big question is whether these upgrades will help ADA catch up to Ethereum in attracting developers and users.