Why did the price of SUI fall?

Sui (SUI) dropped 8.57% in the last 24 hours, underperforming the overall crypto market, which fell 3.89%. This decline was driven by profit-taking after recent gains, a slowdown in derivatives trading, and a large token unlock event.

1. Profit-Taking After a Rally – SUI jumped 33% over the past month before pulling back.
2. Derivatives Market Cooling – Open interest fell 15%, with $6.1 million in long position liquidations.
3. Token Unlock Pressure – On August 1, 76 million SUI tokens (worth $210 million) were unlocked, increasing selling pressure.

Deep Dive

1. Profit-Taking and Overbought Correction (Negative Impact)

Overview:
SUI rose 33% in 30 days, reaching $4.10 before dropping. The recent 24-hour decline matches a cooling momentum indicator called RSI (from 70.26 down to 47.99) and a reversal in MACD, another momentum signal.

What this means:
Traders took profits as SUI became overbought, leading to a natural price correction. Historically, SUI tends to pull back 20–25% after sharp rallies.

What to watch:
If SUI holds above $3.30 (a key technical support level), prices may stabilize.

2. Derivatives Market Unwind (Negative Impact)

Overview:
The total value of open derivatives contracts on SUI dropped 15% to $1.79 billion. Funding rates, which reflect the cost of holding leveraged positions, fell 89% to 0.0083% (CoinMarketCap).

What this means:
Many traders with leveraged long positions exited, increasing selling pressure. The $6.1 million in long liquidations compared to $2.9 million in short liquidations shows forced selling was dominant.

3. Token Unlock Overhang (Negative Impact)

Overview:
On August 1, 76.27 million SUI tokens (worth $210 million) were unlocked, increasing the circulating supply by about 2.1%. Historically, such unlocks have been linked to price drops of 15–23%.

What this means:
Early investors and team members likely sold some of their newly unlocked tokens, adding to downward price pressure.

Conclusion

SUI’s recent price drop is due to a combination of profit-taking, reduced derivatives activity, and token unlock selling. While this appears to be a temporary correction rather than a fundamental problem, the $3.30 support level is important for short-term price stability.

Key point to watch: Will SUI hold the $3.30 support, or will weakness in altcoins push it down to $3.00? Keep an eye on Sui’s TVL and exchange inflows for signs of selling pressure.

What could affect the price of SUI?

Sui’s price is currently caught between growing interest in decentralized finance (DeFi) and the impact of new tokens being released into the market.

1. DeFi Growth – More money locked in Sui-based projects and increased use of stablecoins suggest strong demand.
2. Token Unlocks – $128 million worth of SUI tokens will become available in August, which could lead to selling pressure.
3. ETF Outlook – The SEC is reviewing a proposal for a SUI exchange-traded fund (ETF), which could bring more institutional investors.

Deep Dive

1. DeFi & Ecosystem Growth (Positive for Price)

Overview:
In July 2025, the total value locked (TVL) in Sui’s DeFi projects jumped to $2.2 billion, a 26% increase from the previous month. Key players like Suilend hold $675 million, and Bitcoin-related projects make up about 10% of this value. Stablecoins like USDC and FDUSD are also contributing $1 billion, improving liquidity. New projects such as Walrus (a decentralized storage platform) and SuiPlay0X1 (gaming hardware) are expanding what Sui can do.

What this means:
When more money is locked in these projects, it shows the network is useful and generates fees, which usually increases demand for the SUI token. Stablecoins help reduce price swings, making DeFi safer and more attractive. Plus, with over 3,000 new developers joining in 2025, the ecosystem looks strong and ready for growth.

2. Token Unlocks & Supply Dynamics (Potential Downside)

Overview:
On August 1, 2025, 44 million SUI tokens worth $128 million will be unlocked and enter the market. This is about 1.27% of the tokens currently available. So far, only 35% of the total 10 billion SUI tokens have been released, with the rest expected to come out gradually until 2030.

What this means:
When new tokens enter the market, it can lower the price if demand doesn’t keep up. For example, a similar unlock in July 2023 caused prices to drop by 8%. However, features like staking (which offers around 5% annual returns) and a token burn mechanism that destroys 30% of transaction fees could help reduce the impact of new supply.

3. Regulatory Catalysts (Mixed Effects)

Overview:
In May 2025, Nasdaq filed paperwork for a SUI ETF with 21Shares, following a path similar to Bitcoin’s ETF approval. The SEC could approve this by January 2026. Meanwhile, Swiss banks Sygnum and Amina now offer custody services for SUI, showing growing institutional interest.

What this means:
If the ETF is approved, it could boost SUI’s price significantly, similar to Bitcoin’s 160% rally after its ETF launch in 2024. But delays, like the 18 months Ethereum waited for its ETF, could slow momentum. Also, regulatory clarity after the Cetus hack in May 2025 helps build investor confidence in Sui’s management.

Conclusion

Sui’s price will depend on how well it balances new token supply with growing DeFi use and regulatory progress. Keep an eye on the $3.30–$3.60 price range after the token unlock and watch for updates on the ETF decision. Can Sui’s technology improvements (like Move VM 2.0 and 30,000 transactions per second) overcome concerns about token dilution as the altcoin market heats up?

What are people saying about SUI?

The Sui (SUI) community is caught between excitement over potential price gains and concerns about upcoming token unlocks. Here’s what’s currently shaping the conversation:

1. Talk of ETFs pushes $7 price targets as institutional interest grows
2. Price struggles between $3.40 and $4.20 create uncertainty
3. Ecosystem growth faces security concerns after a $220 million hack

In-Depth Look

1. ETF Buzz Sparks $7 Price Target – Optimistic Outlook

@johnmorganFL says:
"SUI could rally to $7 if the 21Shares ETF gets SEC approval – Swiss bank partnerships add credibility."
– @johnmorganFL (283K followers · 1.2M impressions · 2025-08-09 12:39 UTC)
See original post

What this means: Investors are hopeful that approval of a new exchange-traded fund (ETF) will bring more institutional money into SUI. However, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is expected to decide by early 2026, so immediate price jumps may be limited.

2. $77 Million Token Unlocks Pose Risks – Cautious View

@CetusProtocol warns:
"SUI faces sell pressure this week – failure to hold $2.56 could trigger 35% drop."
– @CetusProtocol (89K followers · 450K impressions · 2025-06-30 08:30 UTC)
See original post

What this means: Large amounts of SUI tokens (about 58 million per week) are becoming available to holders, which could lead to increased selling and price drops. This creates a tricky situation for traders trying to predict short-term moves.

3. Ecosystem Growth vs. Security Concerns – Mixed Signals

@BanklessHQ notes:
"Sui’s BTCfi dominance (10% of TVL), Mysticeti v2 upgrade, and Walrus storage signal L1 maturity – but validator centralization concerns linger post-hack."
– @BanklessHQ (1.1M followers · 2.8M impressions · 2025-05-20 14:48 UTC)
See original post

What this means: SUI’s technology is improving, with new upgrades and growing usage. However, after a recent $220 million hack, questions remain about how decentralized and secure the network really is, especially since validators (those who confirm transactions) are somewhat concentrated.

Summary

The outlook for SUI is mixed. On one hand, technical indicators suggest a possible breakout above $4.20, and institutional interest via ETFs could push prices higher. On the other hand, large token unlocks and lingering security concerns from the hack create uncertainty. Keep an eye on the SEC’s ETF decision expected in early 2026 and SUI’s price volatility, which is currently higher than the average in its sector (68% vs. 54%). The key question: will SUI’s technological improvements be enough to offset the risks from increased token supply and security doubts?

What is the latest news about SUI?

Sui is gaining momentum in decentralized finance (DeFi) and has teamed up with Google, setting the stage for a strong altcoin season. Here’s the latest update:

1. Google Partnership (September 16, 2025) – The new Agentic Payments Protocol (AP2) lets AI agents make transactions on Sui, aiming to boost automation for businesses.
2. Federal Reserve Rate Cut Impact (September 18, 2025) – After the Fed cut interest rates, SUI’s price jumped 9% as investors moved money into alternative cryptocurrencies.
3. SuiFest Singapore (October 2, 2025) – Sui’s big annual event will highlight gaming and DeFi projects, featuring Shark Tank’s Kevin O’Leary.

Deep Dive

1. Google Partnership (September 16, 2025)

Overview
Sui Network announced a partnership with Google to build the Agentic Payments Protocol (AP2). This protocol allows AI programs to carry out transactions on the blockchain automatically. Early applications include DeFi trading bots, small payments between Internet of Things (IoT) devices, and automating supply chains for businesses.

What this means
This is a positive development for SUI because it positions the blockchain as a foundation for AI-driven economic activities—a market expected to reach $3.1 trillion by 2030, according to Bankless. However, the technology is complex, and Sui faces competition from Ethereum’s similar ERC-7621 standard, which could slow adoption.

(Prime News)

2. Federal Reserve Rate Cut Impact (September 18, 2025)

Overview
Following the Federal Reserve’s decision to lower interest rates by 0.25%, SUI’s price increased 9% to $3.65 within hours, outperforming Bitcoin’s 1.7% gain. This rise was driven by investors shifting funds into altcoins. Despite a general market downturn, Sui’s DeFi total value locked (TVL) remained steady at $2 billion.

What this means
SUI’s price is sensitive to broader economic conditions, with a strong 30-day correlation of 0.82 to the Nasdaq stock index. For SUI to keep growing, its DeFi activity needs to stay strong. However, decentralized exchange (DEX) trading volumes on Sui dropped 42% last week to $271 million per day (Koin Saati).

(Weex)

3. SuiFest Singapore (October 2, 2025)

Overview
Sui’s annual conference will introduce the Sweet Player X1, a blockchain-based gaming console, and highlight Walrus Protocol’s decentralized storage solutions. More than 65 game studios will participate, including ports of Kyuzo’s Friends, a game with 12 million players.

What this means
This event is a mix of neutral and positive signals. If the hardware launch succeeds, it could boost mainstream adoption of SUI. However, Sui faces strong competition in gaming from platforms like Immutable X and Solana. Ticket sales are up, with 12,000 sold compared to 8,000 last year, indicating growing interest from developers.

(Sui Community)

Conclusion

Sui’s combination of major partnerships, favorable economic conditions, and expanding ecosystem makes it a strong Layer 1 blockchain contender. The key question is whether AP2 adoption can outpace Ethereum’s AI-focused developments before the Federal Reserve’s next policy move. Keep an eye on October’s gaming activity and transaction data from Google Cloud.

What is expected in the development of SUI?

Sui’s development is progressing with these key updates:

1. Native Bridge (Early Q3 2025) – A secure, trustless connection allowing asset transfers between Sui and Ethereum.
2. SuiNS .move Service (2025) – A system that links easy-to-remember names to blockchain objects, making it simpler to find and verify packages.
3. DeepBook v3 (Q3 2025) – A major upgrade to Sui’s decentralized exchange platform to improve scalability and liquidity.
4. IDE Improvements (Q3 2025) – Better developer tools to make building on the Move programming language faster and easier.

Deep Dive

1. Native Bridge (Early Q3 2025)

Overview:
Sui is launching a native bridge that securely connects its network with Ethereum, allowing users to move assets between the two blockchains without needing a middleman. The smart contracts have been audited, and testing on the test network finished in April 2025.

What this means:
This is positive news for SUI because it could bring more Ethereum users and liquidity into Sui’s ecosystem, boosting decentralized finance (DeFi) activities. However, there is a chance of delays or security issues after launch.

2. SuiNS .move Service (2025)

Overview:
Building on the Sui Name Service, the .move service will map human-friendly names to blockchain object IDs. This makes it easier for developers and users to find and verify packages without dealing with complicated addresses (Sui Developer Forum).

What this means:
This update is somewhat positive for SUI because it improves the user and developer experience. Its impact depends on how widely it is adopted, but it could help wallets and decentralized apps (dApps) grow.

3. DeepBook v3 (Q3 2025)

Overview:
DeepBook v3 is an upgrade to Sui’s decentralized exchange (DEX) framework, focusing on handling more users and improving liquidity. It is planned for deployment on developer and test networks soon (Sui Developer Forum).

What this means:
This is good news for SUI because a stronger DEX could attract larger traders and increase the total value locked (TVL) in Sui’s DeFi ecosystem. Success depends on how well it integrates with other DeFi platforms.

4. IDE Improvements (Q3 2025)

Overview:
Sui plans to enhance its Integrated Development Environment (IDE) with features like automatic code formatting, debugging tools, and better package management for developers using the Move language. These improvements aim to make building apps faster and easier.

What this means:
This is positive for SUI as better tools can attract more developers to the platform. However, other blockchain ecosystems like Solana and Aptos are also improving their developer tools, so competition remains strong.

Conclusion

Sui’s roadmap focuses on making the network more connected with other blockchains, improving developer tools, and strengthening DeFi infrastructure—key factors for growing the ecosystem. While updates like the Native Bridge and DeepBook v3 could drive adoption, there are risks in execution. The big question is how Sui will continue innovating while keeping its network secure as it expands.

What updates are there in the SUI code base?

In mid-2025, Sui (SUI) rolled out three important updates aimed at improving security, scalability, and developer tools.

1. gRPC Beta Support (July 24, 2025) – Introduced a modern API protocol for faster, real-time data access.
2. Testnet v1.51.2 (June 29, 2025) – Added TLS encryption, experimental "Party" objects, and sped up project setup by 30–50%.
3. Mainnet v1.50.1 (June 17, 2025) – Implemented congestion control and default protection against denial-of-service (DoS) attacks.

Deep Dive

1. gRPC Beta Support (July 24, 2025)

What happened: Sui replaced its older JSON-RPC system with gRPC, a newer API protocol that supports real-time data streaming and typed access in popular programming languages like Rust, Go, and TypeScript.

Why it matters: This upgrade means developers can access data faster and more reliably, which improves the performance of applications such as decentralized finance (DeFi) dashboards and gaming platforms. It also makes it easier to build tools that work across multiple blockchains.

Bottom line: This is a positive step for Sui, showing its commitment to building infrastructure that can grow with its ecosystem.
(Source)

2. Testnet v1.51.2 (June 29, 2025)

What happened: The update made TLS encryption mandatory for validator communications, enhancing security. It also introduced experimental "Party" objects designed for DeFi and gaming transactions. Additionally, improvements to developer tools reduced project setup time by 30–50%. Node operators now need to use requester-pays buckets for syncing state.

Why it matters: These changes improve security and developer experience. However, since "Party" objects are still only available on the testnet, their real-world impact depends on future adoption on the mainnet.

Bottom line: This update is neutral for now but could unlock new use cases if the community embraces these features.
(Source)

3. Mainnet v1.50.1 (June 17, 2025)

What happened: Sui added congestion control to better manage network traffic during busy times and enabled default protection against denial-of-service (DoS) attacks. The update improved how transactions are queued, prioritizing important ones to reduce delays.

Why it matters: This makes the network more reliable, especially for applications that require fast, frequent transactions like DeFi platforms.

Bottom line: This is a positive but incremental improvement for Sui’s network stability.

Conclusion

Sui’s updates in mid-2025 focus on strengthening security, improving scalability for developers, and modernizing its infrastructure. While testnet features like "Party" objects hint at future innovations, the main goal is to stabilize core network functions. These upgrades could help Sui better compete with platforms like Solana, especially in gaming and institutional DeFi sectors.