Why did the price of TIA fall?
Celestia (TIA) dropped 3.48% in the last 24 hours, underperforming the overall crypto market, which fell by about 1%. The main reasons include new tokens entering the market, technical price resistance, and a general weakness in altcoins.
- More Tokens Released – Over $13 million worth of TIA tokens became available this week.
- Price Struggles at Key Levels – Attempts to push prices higher failed near important moving averages.
- Altcoin Market Weakness – Investors are moving money away from mid-sized coins amid uncertain market conditions.
Deep Dive
1. Token Unlocks (Negative Pressure)
Overview:
This week, Celestia released about 6.96 million TIA tokens, worth roughly $13 million at current prices. This is part of a planned schedule for releasing tokens over time. Earlier, in July 2025, Polychain Capital sold $62.5 million worth of stakes to the Celestia Foundation, which has added ongoing selling pressure.
What this means:
When new tokens are unlocked, early investors and network validators often sell them, increasing supply and pushing prices down. TIA’s price has dropped about 5.43% over the past 30 days, showing the market is having trouble absorbing these new tokens.
What to watch:
The next big token release is scheduled for October 22, 2025, which will add about 0.9% more tokens to the supply.
2. Technical Breakdown (Bearish Signals)
Overview:
TIA is trading below key moving averages: the 7-day average is $1.44, and the 30-day average is $1.61. The MACD indicator, which helps show momentum, has turned negative, suggesting weakening buying strength. The RSI, a measure of market sentiment, is at 45.6, indicating a neutral to slightly bearish outlook.
What this means:
The price has been rejected near the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at $1.64, showing strong resistance. If the price falls below the 78.6% Fibonacci level at $1.47, it could drop further toward the low of $1.34 seen earlier in 2025.
3. Altcoin Weakness (Mixed Effects)
Overview:
Altcoins, including TIA, have faced selling pressure as Bitcoin’s market dominance increased to 58.38%, up 0.42% in the last day. The Altcoin Season Index, which measures how well altcoins are performing compared to Bitcoin, dropped 7.58%, signaling less appetite for risk.
What this means:
TIA’s trading volume fell 25% to $69.3 million, indicating lower liquidity and less active trading. Without immediate updates or news—Celestia’s next big upgrade, called Lotus, is still weeks away—projects like TIA tend to lag in sideways or weak markets.
Conclusion
TIA’s recent price drop is mainly due to increased token supply, failed attempts to break through key price levels, and cautious sentiment across the altcoin market. While Celestia’s modular blockchain technology and upcoming features like Bullet L2 integration offer promising long-term potential, short-term challenges are currently weighing on the price.
Key point to watch: Can TIA maintain support at $1.47 (the 78.6% Fibonacci level) as Bitcoin’s dominance continues to rise?
What could affect the price of TIA?
Celestia’s price is currently influenced by a mix of technical improvements and market factors.
- Matcha Upgrade – Boosts scalability and cuts inflation to 2.5%, which could increase demand.
- Rollup Adoption – Integration with Bullet L2 shows growing real-world use.
- Vesting Overhang – A $62.5 million token buyback helps reduce selling pressure, but token unlocks remain a concern.
Deep Dive
1. Matcha Upgrade (Positive Outlook)
Overview:
Celestia’s upcoming v6 “Matcha” upgrade, now live on testnet and soon on mainnet, will increase block size to 128MB, cut inflation from 5% to 2.5%, and enable cross-chain asset transfers through Hyperlane integration. Lower inflation means fewer new tokens are created, making Celestia’s TIA tokens more scarce. The Hyperlane feature allows better communication between different blockchains, expanding Celestia’s usefulness, especially for rollups like Bullet L2 built on Solana (Blockworks).
What this means:
Reducing the number of new tokens issued (via CIP-41) could make TIA more attractive for decentralized finance (DeFi) uses. The larger block size means Celestia can handle more data, strengthening its role as a modular data layer for other blockchains. Similar upgrades in other networks, like Ethereum’s EIP-1559, have helped support token prices by controlling supply growth.
2. Rollup Adoption vs. Competition (Mixed Outlook)
Overview:
Bullet L2’s decision to use Celestia for data availability shows demand for scalable solutions. However, competitors like Avail and EigenDA are also gaining ground, and Ethereum’s planned “danksharding” upgrade could challenge Celestia’s position in the future.
What this means:
In the short term, TIA benefits from Bullet’s faster transaction times (1.2 milliseconds compared to Solana’s 400 milliseconds) and potential growth in derivatives trading. But Celestia currently holds about 50% of the data availability market (CoinMarketCap), and this share could shrink if competitors offer lower prices or specialize in certain areas.
3. Tokenomics Changes (Neutral to Slightly Negative Outlook)
Overview:
The Celestia Foundation purchased Polychain’s $62.5 million stake in TIA (The Block) and is releasing these tokens gradually. After the Lotus upgrade, staking rewards will be locked according to vesting schedules, which reduces the amount of tokens available for sale.
What this means:
While the buyback reduces immediate selling pressure (about 0.9% of circulating TIA is unlocked weekly), the gradual release of 43.4 million tokens (around 5.4% of total supply) could still weigh on the price if holders decide to sell. Past token unlocks, like the $13 million release planned for September 2025, have led to price drops of 5–10%.
Conclusion
Celestia’s price will depend on how well it balances technical upgrades with the impact of token unlocks. The Matcha upgrade and Bullet’s mainnet launch expected in late 2025 are positive catalysts. However, maintaining prices above $1.50 will require the market to absorb roughly $100 million worth of token unlocks annually.
Key question: Will Celestia’s improvements in data availability throughput be enough to compete with Ethereum’s proto-danksharding upgrade expected in 2026?
What are people saying about TIA?
The Celestia (TIA) community is divided between optimism for a price breakout and concerns about token unlocks. Here’s what’s trending:
- Optimists are aiming for a price target of $4.20 if the current resistance level is broken 🚀
- Price battle at $1.64, where buyers and sellers are evenly matched 🤼
- Polychain’s big sell-off of $62.5 million worth of tokens raises worries about more selling ahead 🏃♂️💨
- Token unlock concerns — daily token releases versus a $100 million reserve held by the founders 🔓⚔️
Deep Dive
1. @VipRoseTr: Breakout could push price to $4.20 bullish
“Celestia is breaking above the upper resistance line at $6.20 with strong trading volume. Price targets: $2.20 → $4.20”
– @VipRoseTr (18.2K followers · 324K impressions · 2025-09-10 15:19 UTC)
View original post
What this means: Traders who use technical analysis see this breakout as a sign that the price could rise significantly. However, the current price ($1.47) is still well below those resistance levels, so it’s not guaranteed yet.
2. CoinMarketCap Community: Price struggles at $1.64 resistance mixed signals
“TIA surged 17% midweek but then dropped 8%, fighting to stay above $1.64 (20-day Simple Moving Average). A clear break could indicate a trend change.”
– CMC Community Post (9.1K votes · 2025-07-09 15:27 UTC)
View analysis
What this means: The $1.64 level is important because it reflects the average price over the last 20 days. Staying above it could attract more buyers, while falling below might trigger automatic sell orders.
3. CoinJournal: Polychain’s $62.5M token sale adds selling pressure bearish
“Polychain sold its remaining TIA tokens ahead of staking rule changes, after already earning $80 million from rewards. Daily token unlocks continue at 995,000 tokens per day.”
– Reported 2025-07-25
View report
What this means: When big investors like Polychain sell large amounts, it can push prices down. Plus, nearly a million new tokens are unlocked daily, increasing supply and pressure on the price. The Celestia Foundation is buying back tokens to help balance this out.
4. @kerimcalender: Token unlock schedule raises concerns neutral
“65.6% of tokens are already in circulation, with 995,000 tokens unlocking daily. The team holds $100 million in reserves, but retail investors worry about the impact of ongoing unlocks.”
– @kerimcalender (43K followers · 2025-09-06 13:17 UTC)
View thread
What this means: The project has a strong financial backup, but the steady release of new tokens can cause price swings. Starting in about 55 days (mid-November 2025), an additional 344,000 tokens will unlock daily, which could add more selling pressure.
Conclusion
The outlook for Celestia (TIA) is mixed. Some traders are optimistic based on chart patterns, while others are cautious due to token dilution risks. The $100 million treasury and the innovative modular blockchain design offer long-term potential. However, ongoing token unlocks and large investor sell-offs have caused a nearly 10% price drop over the past 60 days. Keep an eye on the $1.50 support level — if it breaks, the price could fall back to the $1.30 low seen in April 2025. On the other hand, reclaiming the $1.64 moving average might trigger a rally toward $2.
What is the latest news about TIA?
Celestia is making strides with new technology and token releases. Here’s the latest update:
- Solana Layer 2 Uses Celestia (September 29, 2025) – Bullet’s appchain is integrating Celestia to handle high-speed trading of derivatives.
- $13 Million TIA Tokens Released (September 22, 2025) – Weekly token unlocks are increasing selling pressure amid a volatile market.
In-Depth Look
1. Solana Layer 2 Uses Celestia (September 29, 2025)
What happened:
Bullet, formerly known as Zeta Markets, announced that its Solana-based Layer 2 solution will use Celestia for managing data availability. This setup aims to deliver performance similar to centralized exchanges for perpetual futures trading. Thanks to Celestia’s modular design, the system achieves extremely low latency—1.2 milliseconds compared to Solana’s 400 milliseconds per block. Early tests show this could significantly boost derivatives trading, which makes up about 70% of centralized exchange volume.
Why it matters:
This is a positive development for Celestia (TIA) because it expands its use in high-performance decentralized finance (DeFi) systems. If derivatives-focused blockchains adopt Celestia’s data layer, it could increase long-term demand for TIA tokens. However, the success of this depends on how well the mainnet launch goes in the last quarter of 2025. (Blockworks)
2. $13 Million TIA Tokens Released (September 22, 2025)
What happened:
On September 22, Celestia released 6.96 million TIA tokens, worth about $13 million, as part of its scheduled token unlocks. This release is part of a larger trend, with $517 million worth of crypto tokens unlocked across the market that week. Since June 2025, the circulating supply of TIA has increased by 12%.
Why it matters:
These token unlocks tend to put downward pressure on the price in the short term because early investors may sell their tokens. TIA’s price dropped 9% last month, while the overall crypto market cap grew by 7.8%. On the bright side, 80% of the token unlocks are now complete, which means the risk of future supply dilution is decreasing. (Crypto.News)
Conclusion
Celestia is balancing growth through partnerships like Bullet’s Layer 2 solution with the challenges of ongoing token unlocks that increase selling pressure. With Bullet’s mainnet launch coming soon and token supply growth slowing after October, the next month will be crucial. It will show whether Celestia’s modular data layer technology can gain wider adoption before upcoming changes to staking affect TIA’s economics.
What is expected in the development of TIA?
Celestia’s development is moving forward with these key milestones:
- 1 GB Block Scaling (2026) – Upgrades to handle data at speeds similar to Visa, supporting rollups.
- Light Node Browser Integration (Q4 2025) – Run lightweight, verifiable nodes right in your web browser.
- Lazybridging Interoperability (2026) – Easier and more efficient transfers of assets across different blockchains.
- Blobstream Expansion (2026) – Allow Ethereum and Solana to use Celestia’s data proofs for added security.
Deep Dive
1. 1 GB Block Scaling (2026)
Overview
Celestia’s developers plan to increase block size to 1 GB using improvements like Vacuum! (which prepares data before blocks are created) and optimistic block propagation (faster data sharing). This could support about 24,000 transactions per second worth of data, enabling fast applications like on-chain games or payment systems.
What this means
This is good news for TIA’s usefulness since rollups (layer 2 solutions) need more space to store data, which is paid for in TIA tokens. However, there are technical challenges, such as making sure all nodes can keep up with syncing this large amount of data, which might delay the rollout.
2. Light Node Browser Integration (Q4 2025)
Overview
A lightweight node that works in web browsers is being developed (demo here). This lets users verify data availability proofs themselves without relying on centralized servers, increasing security and decentralization.
What this means
This is somewhat positive for TIA, as it gives users more control over their data verification. However, its success depends on whether wallets and decentralized apps adopt this technology. It also competes with other lightweight clients using zero-knowledge proofs that are gaining popularity.
3. Lazybridging Interoperability (2026)
Overview
“Lazybridging” makes moving assets between blockchains simpler by letting users pay fees in the token native to the destination chain. This helps solve issues caused by the modular blockchain ecosystem being fragmented, as seen with recent Hyperlane integrations.
What this means
This is promising for TIA’s role as a key routing layer in the blockchain ecosystem. Its success will depend on partnerships, like Eclipse’s SVM rollup, which already uses Celestia’s data availability.
4. Blobstream Expansion (2026)
Overview
Blobstream will enable Ethereum and Solana to use Celestia’s data availability proofs through on-chain attestations. This could make TIA a valuable asset for settling transactions across different blockchain ecosystems.
What this means
There’s significant potential if Ethereum layer 2 solutions adopt this, but Celestia faces competition from other data availability solutions like EigenDA and native options.
Conclusion
Celestia’s roadmap focuses on improving scalability (with 1 GB blocks), usability (browser-based nodes), and cross-chain compatibility (lazybridging and Blobstream). While there are technical risks, successfully delivering these features could establish TIA as a major player in modular blockchain infrastructure. The big question remains: Will Celestia’s speed improvements outpace competing data availability layers?
What updates are there in the TIA code base?
Celestia’s latest updates focus on improving how its token works across different blockchains, making its token economics more sustainable, and enhancing security for those who stake their tokens.
- Hyperlane Integration (May 24, 2025) – A software upgrade that allows TIA tokens to move easily between different blockchain networks.
- Proof-of-Governance Proposal (June 23, 2025) – A plan to cut new token creation by 95% to reduce inflation.
- Staking Lock Mechanism (August 5, 2025) – A rule that prevents early investors from quickly selling their staking rewards.
Deep Dive
1. Hyperlane Integration (May 24, 2025)
What happened: Celestia’s Lotus upgrade added Hyperlane technology, enabling TIA tokens to be transferred directly across popular blockchains like Ethereum and Solana.
This means developers can now create applications that work across multiple blockchains using Celestia’s data services. For users, TIA tokens can move smoothly between platforms like Arbitrum and Base without needing complicated bridge systems.
Why it matters: This is good news for TIA because it opens up more ways to use the token in decentralized finance (DeFi) across different blockchains, potentially increasing demand for Celestia’s technology. (Source)
2. Proof-of-Governance Proposal (June 23, 2025)
What happened: Celestia’s co-founder, John Adler, suggested reducing the yearly creation of new TIA tokens from 5% down to 0.25%. This change aims to reward long-term holders and reduce the number of tokens flooding the market.
Validators, who help secure the network, will now earn fees from transactions instead of relying mostly on new tokens being created.
Why it matters: Lower inflation helps stabilize the token’s price, making TIA more appealing as a long-term investment within Celestia’s ecosystem. (Source)
3. Staking Lock Mechanism (August 5, 2025)
What happened: A new rule was added that locks staking rewards for 90 days, stopping early investors from quickly selling their earnings.
This change came after a large stake sale by Polychain, which upset the community. The lock encourages investors to stay committed to the network longer.
Why it matters: This is a mixed development for TIA. While it reduces the chance of sudden sell-offs, it might discourage investors who want quick access to their rewards. (Source)
Conclusion
Celestia is working to grow its ecosystem by making its token more useful across blockchains, improving token economics, and encouraging responsible investing. While these changes strengthen the project’s foundation, the new staking rules may test how patient investors are. The key question remains: will these updates attract more developers without pushing away current supporters?