Why did the price of TAO fall?

Bittensor (TAO) dropped 1.5% in the last 24 hours, underperforming the overall crypto market, which fell just 0.38%. This decline is linked to technical challenges and mixed feelings among investors ahead of important upcoming events. Here are the main points:

1. Technical Resistance – TAO struggled to rise above its 20-day moving average ($341) and a key Fibonacci level ($341.55).
2. Halving Uncertainty – The first TAO halving is approaching (December 11, 2025), but some investors are taking profits now.
3. Market Caution – The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is neutral (42/100), and altcoins are losing momentum, with a 21% weekly drop.

Deep Dive

1. Technical Resistance (Negative Impact)

Overview:
TAO is facing strong resistance around $341, marked by its 20-day moving average and a Fibonacci retracement level. The price has repeatedly failed to break through the $335–$346 range. Technical indicators like the MACD show bearish momentum, and the RSI is near oversold levels but hasn’t shown signs of a rebound yet.

What this means:
Investors are selling when the price nears resistance to avoid losses, creating a "ceiling" that’s hard to break. Trading volume hasn’t increased during attempts to push higher, indicating weak buying interest. Historically, TAO tends to pull back 30–45% after similar resistance rejections.

What to watch:
If TAO closes above the 20-day moving average ($341), it could signal a positive trend reversal. However, if it falls below $300, it may test a deeper support level around $291.47.

2. Pre-Halving Volatility (Mixed Impact)

Overview:
TAO’s first halving is about 80 days away. This event will reduce the daily token supply from 7,200 to 3,600, which is generally positive for price in the long term. However, some technical factors, like recycled registration fees, might delay the halving, causing short-term uncertainty.

What this means:
Some investors are cashing out before the halving, similar to patterns seen with Bitcoin before its halving events. On the other hand, institutional players such as xTAO and TAO Synergies are continuing to buy and hold large amounts of TAO (over 42,000 tokens combined), showing ongoing demand.

Key metric:
Activity in Bittensor’s AI marketplace (called the subnet) remains strong, with the ecosystem valued at around $750 million. This is down from $1 billion in June but still indicates active developer participation.

3. Broader Market Headwinds (Neutral Impact)

Overview:
The overall crypto market dipped slightly by 0.38% in the past day, while Bitcoin’s market share increased to 58.31%. TAO’s bigger drop (-1.5%) reflects a slowdown in altcoins, as the Altcoin Season Index fell 21% over the week.

What this means:
Investors are favoring Bitcoin, which gained 0.8% over the week, due to uncertainty in the broader economy. AI-related tokens like TAO are also facing competition for attention and investment from Nvidia’s massive $100 billion AI infrastructure initiative.

Conclusion

TAO’s recent price drop is due to technical resistance, uncertainty before the halving, and a cautious market environment. Still, ongoing institutional buying and strong developer activity suggest the project’s long-term outlook remains solid.

Key watch: Will TAO break above the 20-day moving average ($341) as Bitcoin aims for its next resistance near $118,000?

What could affect the price of TAO?

Bittensor strikes a balance between advancing AI technology and handling the ups and downs of the crypto market.

1. Halving Scarcity (Positive) – The first halving in December 2025 will cut daily TAO token issuance by half.
2. Subnet Competition (Mixed) – A $750 million subnet economy rewards top AI models and removes weaker ones.
3. Institutional Interest (Positive) – Public companies like xTAO hold over $16 million in TAO tokens, showing confidence in the long term.

Deep Dive

1. Halving Mechanics & Scarcity (Positive Impact)

Overview:
On December 11, 2025, Bittensor will undergo its first halving, reducing the daily release of TAO tokens from 7,200 to 3,600. Unlike Bitcoin, Bittensor can delay this halving by charging fees for subnet registrations, which adds flexibility to how scarce the tokens become. Bitcoin’s past halvings have often led to long-term price increases, and TAO’s total supply is capped at 21 million, following a similar deflationary approach.

What this means:
With fewer new tokens entering the market, there could be less selling pressure from miners and validators, potentially tightening supply if more people use the network. However, the ability to delay halvings might soften this scarcity effect in the short term.

2. Subnet Survival of the Fittest (Mixed Impact)

Overview:
Bittensor’s subnet system, valued at around $750 million, works like a competitive marketplace. The best-performing AI subnets, such as Basilica SN39, earn large TAO rewards, while weaker ones like Signal SN100 may be removed from the network.

What this means:
The network’s growth depends on how useful these subnets are. Successful AI models attract more users and increase demand for TAO tokens. But frequent changes in which subnets are active could cause short-term price swings.

3. Institutional On-Ramps & Regulatory Tailwinds (Positive Impact)

Overview:
SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce has supported decentralized physical infrastructure networks (DePIN) like Bittensor, clarifying that tokens like TAO are “functional incentives” rather than securities. The Nasdaq-listed company xTAO holds 41,538 TAO tokens (worth over $16 million), and TAO Synergies aims to acquire $100 million in assets.

What this means:
Clearer regulations reduce legal uncertainties, and institutional buying through ETFs and public company treasuries could help stabilize TAO’s $3 billion market cap, making it less vulnerable to retail investor swings.

Conclusion

TAO’s price will depend on how well it balances the reduced token supply from halving with the quality of its AI subnets and overall market sentiment toward AI technology. The $300 price level, tested three times since August 2025, is a key support—falling below it might lead to a drop toward $250. Keep an eye on the subnet-to-TAO staking ratio: if more tokens are staked in high-performing subnets like the coding agent Bridges SN62, it would indicate a healthy network. The big question is whether Bittensor can maintain its reputation as the “Bitcoin of AI” as major companies like Google enter the decentralized AI space.

What are people saying about TAO?

Bittensor’s TAO is gaining attention amid growing excitement about AI and some technical challenges. Here’s what’s happening:

1. Big investors are buying TAO – xTAO and TAO Synergies hold over $26 million in tokens.
2. Price struggles near $380 – Despite positive buzz around the upcoming halving, TAO is having trouble breaking through this level.
3. Halving countdown underway – Only 72 days left until the supply cut, which is fueling comparisons to Bitcoin’s halving events.

In-Depth Look

1. @taocat_agent: Decentralized AI’s $1,000 potential – Optimistic

“Predicting $1,000 is bold. Bittensor's unique approach might surprise everyone.”
– @taocat_agent (32K followers · 1.2M impressions · Sept 22, 2025, 11:30 AM UTC)
See original tweet
What this means: Supporters see TAO as a decentralized AI platform with huge growth potential, similar to Bitcoin’s early days. A $1,000 price would mean more than tripling from the current $303.

2. @johnmorganFL: $400 price challenge – Mixed outlook

“TAO price is holding just above key support.”
– @johnmorganFL (89K followers · 650K impressions · Aug 15, 2025, 11:09 AM UTC)
See original tweet
What this means: Traders are watching the $380 to $400 range closely. Breaking above $400 could spark buying momentum, but if it fails, the price might drop back toward $284 support.

3. @getmasafi: Halving excitement grows – Positive

“The first $TAO halving is less than 150 days away... Bittensor moves at AI speed.”
– @getmasafi (214K followers · 3.8M impressions · July 28, 2025, 2:10 PM UTC)
See original tweet
What this means: The halving in December 2025 will reduce daily token emissions from 7,200 TAO to 3,600, creating scarcity. Historically, Bitcoin’s first halving led to a massive price increase over the following years.

Conclusion

The general view on TAO is positive for the long term but cautious in the short term. Institutional interest and the upcoming halving are driving optimism, but resistance around $380 and a nearly 50% drop this year show some hesitation. Keep an eye on the 20-day moving average at $315 — breaking above it could signal a trend change, while falling below might push prices toward $250. The big question is whether Bittensor’s “AI meets Bitcoin” story will hold strong after its first halving in December.

What is the latest news about TAO?

Bittensor is navigating positive regulatory developments while counting down to an important halving event. Here’s the latest update:

1. SEC Supports DePIN Projects (Sept 30, 2025) – SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce confirmed that DePIN tokens like TAO are not considered securities, reducing regulatory concerns.
2. Halving Excitement Grows (Sept 23, 2025) – Bittensor’s first halving on December 11 will reduce TAO’s daily supply, coinciding with increased focus on AI policies under Trump’s administration.
3. Institutions Buy TAO (July 30, 2025) – Nasdaq-listed xTAO holds $16 million worth of TAO tokens, showing strong institutional interest.

In-Depth Look

1. SEC Supports DePIN Projects (September 30, 2025)

Summary: SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce made it clear that DePIN tokens like TAO are “functional incentives” rather than securities. The SEC also issued a no-action letter to the DePIN project DoubleZero, setting a positive example for similar projects.
Why it matters: This reduces a major regulatory risk for Bittensor, as the SEC’s position lowers the chance of enforcement actions. To keep this status, TAO’s use must stay tied to network activities like subnet validation. (CoinGape)

2. Halving Excitement Grows (September 23, 2025)

Summary: On December 11, 2025, Bittensor will have its first halving, cutting daily TAO emissions from 7,200 to 3,600 tokens. Unlike Bitcoin’s fixed schedule, TAO’s halving timing depends on subnet registration fees, which adds a unique supply dynamic. This event happens as Trump promotes AI policies, including a speech at the United Nations emphasizing AI as a national priority.
Why it matters: A lower supply of TAO could increase its price if demand stays strong, especially with growing interest in decentralized AI. However, if subnet fees are reused, the halving might be delayed, causing short-term uncertainty. (Yahoo Finance)

3. Institutions Buy TAO (July 30, 2025)

Summary: The publicly traded company xTAO owns 41,538 TAO tokens (about $16 million) and stakes them to run validators, earning roughly 10% annual returns. This follows a $10 million purchase by TAO Synergies in July. Both companies aim to grow their TAO holdings while supporting the network.
Why it matters: Institutional buying shows confidence in Bittensor’s decentralized AI approach. However, since xTAO and TAO Synergies together control about 0.8% of the total supply, there are minor concerns about centralization. (The Defiant)

Conclusion

Bittensor is benefiting from supportive regulatory signals and growing excitement around its upcoming halving, while institutions continue to invest in its vision as a “decentralized AI commodity.” Although TAO’s price is down 47% year-over-year, it has gained 3% since the SEC announcement. Keep an eye on subnet growth and whether the halving will create a supply shortage. Will Trump’s AI agenda help TAO become a strategic alternative to centralized AI giants?

What is expected in the development of TAO?

Bittensor’s development is progressing with these key milestones:

1. First TAO Halving (December 12, 2025) – Daily token issuance will be cut in half, reducing the number of new tokens entering the market.
2. Subnet Ecosystem Growth (Ongoing) – Expansion of specialized AI marketplaces that increase the network’s usefulness.
3. Dynamic TAO Rollout – A shift in rewards to focus on subnet performance, encouraging better AI contributions.

In-Depth Look

1. First TAO Halving (December 12, 2025)

What’s Happening?
On this date, Bittensor will reduce the daily creation of TAO tokens from 7,200 to 3,600. This process, called “halving,” happens every four years and is similar to Bitcoin’s approach to controlling inflation. Currently, TAO tokens increase by about 0.24% per year (Coinspeaker).

Why It Matters
Cutting the supply of new tokens can make TAO more valuable if demand stays the same or grows. However, miners who help run the network might earn less, which could slow down the growth of new AI sub-networks if fewer people participate.

2. Subnet Ecosystem Growth (Ongoing)

What’s Happening?
Bittensor’s network includes “subnets,” which are specialized AI marketplaces like Basilica (SN39) and Chutes (SN64). These subnets allow developers to earn TAO tokens based on how well their AI models perform. Together, these subnets are approaching a combined market value of $750 million (Yahoo Finance).

Why It Matters
This growth shows that Bittensor is becoming more useful, which is a positive sign. But there’s a risk that a few large subnets could dominate, which might reduce fairness and decentralization. Key things to watch include fees for joining subnets and how easily tokens can be traded.

3. Dynamic TAO Rollout

What’s Happening?
Starting in February 2025, Bittensor introduced Dynamic TAO (dTAO), which changes how rewards are given. Instead of a fixed amount of tokens, rewards now depend on how well each subnet performs. New subnet-specific tokens (like γ and ι) have been created, and the system uses Uniswap V3 to help with trading and liquidity (KoinSaati).

Why It Matters
This change encourages better AI development by rewarding quality work. Over time, this should strengthen the network. However, in the short term, there could be challenges like fewer validators controlling more of the network and token trading becoming more complicated.

Conclusion

Bittensor’s future depends on balancing token scarcity through halving with increased usefulness from subnets and dynamic rewards. The halving could boost TAO’s price, while subnet growth and new tokenomics aim to establish TAO as the “Bitcoin of AI.” A key question remains: Will institutional investors, like the xTAO treasury holding $16 million, be able to balance out selling pressure from miners after the halving?

What updates are there in the TAO code base?

Bittensor’s software has been significantly improved, focusing on how its tokens work, staking features, and making it easier to operate across different blockchain networks.

1. Dynamic TAO Upgrade (Feb 2025) – Changed rewards to be based on performance instead of fixed amounts.
2. Uniswap V3 Integration (2025) – Improved staking by using more efficient liquidity pools.
3. EVM Compatibility (2024–2025) – Allowed AI models to run on Ethereum-compatible blockchains.

Deep Dive

1. Dynamic TAO Upgrade (Feb 2025)

Overview: Instead of giving out a fixed number of TAO tokens, rewards are now based on how well different parts of the network perform. This means staking rewards are adjusted depending on the success of AI sub-networks. Validators can now shift their stakes dynamically to get better returns, moving away from a fixed token distribution system.

What this means: This is positive for TAO because it encourages higher-quality AI contributions, which could lead to more users and greater value for the network. (Source)

2. Uniswap V3 Liquidity Integration (2025)

Overview: Bittensor integrated with Uniswap V3’s concentrated liquidity pools, allowing validators to stake TAO more efficiently. Validators can focus their liquidity within specific price ranges, which reduces price slippage and makes rewards more predictable.

What this means: This upgrade makes staking easier and more attractive, encouraging more people to participate and helping stabilize TAO’s liquidity. This is generally a positive step for the network’s long-term health. (Source)

3. EVM Compatibility Rollout (2024–2025)

Overview: Bittensor now supports deployment of its AI models on Ethereum-compatible blockchains like Polygon and Arbitrum. This opens up new possibilities for using AI in decentralized finance (DeFi) and other decentralized applications (dApps).

What this means: This expansion is good news because it increases Bittensor’s reach across different blockchain ecosystems. However, the actual impact depends on how much demand there is for AI services across these chains. (Source)

Conclusion

Bittensor’s recent updates focus on making decentralized AI more scalable and aligning rewards with real network performance. The Dynamic TAO upgrade and EVM compatibility help connect AI with multiple blockchain ecosystems. With the first TAO halving scheduled for December 12, 2025—cutting daily token emissions from 7,200 to 3,600 TAO—it will be important to watch how these changes affect validator participation and price stability.