What could affect the price of TAO?
Bittensor’s price is currently caught between strong institutional interest and ongoing market ups and downs.
- Halving (Dec 2025) – The supply of new TAO coins will be cut in half, creating scarcity.
- Grayscale’s TAO Trust – A potential new way for big investors to get involved, pending regulatory approval.
- Subnet competition – Network upgrades are pushing for better performance from different parts of the system.
Deep Dive
1. Halving Dynamics (Positive for Price)
Overview:
On December 12, 2025, Bittensor will undergo its first halving event. This means the daily creation of new TAO coins will drop from 7,200 to 3,600. This is similar to Bitcoin’s approach to limiting supply. After the halving, the yearly inflation rate will fall to about 4.2% from 8.4%, meaning fewer new coins enter the market as more people stake and participate in the network.
What this means:
With fewer new coins being sold by miners or validators, there could be upward pressure on the price—especially if more people start using and staking TAO. Bitcoin’s past halvings have led to long-term price increases, but because TAO’s market size is smaller (around $3.9 billion), its price might react more strongly to changes in demand.
2. Institutional Adoption (Mixed Effects)
Overview:
Grayscale has filed for a TAO Trust in October 2025, which would allow regulated investors to buy TAO more easily. Companies listed on Nasdaq, like xTAO (holding $16 million in TAO) and TAO Synergies (with $10 million), are also buying up TAO aggressively.
What this means:
Big investors could help reduce price swings and bring in long-term holders. However, since the top 5 validators control 28% of all staked TAO (Taostats), there’s a risk that a few players could influence the price too much.
3. Subnet Evolution & Liquid Staking (Encouraging Growth)
Overview:
The Finney network upgrade in March 2025 introduced competition among subnets, limiting active subnets to 128 and removing those that don’t perform well. New tools like vTAO allow users to earn rewards through yield farming without locking up their tokens.
What this means:
Better subnet quality could attract AI developers, increasing demand for TAO based on real use cases. The 10% annual yield from vTAO might also pull decentralized finance (DeFi) funds into TAO. Success depends on avoiding problems seen in Ethereum’s liquid staking tokens, like oversaturation.
Conclusion
TAO’s future depends on balancing reduced supply from the halving with actual growth in AI applications using the network. Grayscale’s involvement shows growing institutional interest, but the network needs to prove it can scale beyond niche projects. Will the December halving spark a surge in AI-driven demand, or will TAO’s price rely too much on speculative buying? Keep an eye on subnet revenue (aiming for $20 million+ per year) and staking activity for signs of progress.
What are people saying about TAO?
The Bittensor (TAO) community is divided between holding strong through price swings and feeling anxious about market moves, with big investors adding to the excitement. Here’s what’s trending:
- Price predictions: TAO could surpass $1,000 if it breaks important technical levels
- Institutional interest: Grayscale’s recent filing shows Wall Street is paying attention
- Corporate buying: Public companies are stockpiling TAO ahead of a key event in December
Deep Dive
1. @hayek_ai: TAO’s $600–$1,150 breakout window looks bullish
“Q4 macro risk-on + TAO’s 4th trendline retest = perfect setup. Fundamentals lead price by multiples – gap closes soon.”
– @hayek_ai (58K followers · 1.2M impressions · 2025-10-09 14:39 UTC)
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What this means: This is positive for TAO because past trendline tests have led to big price increases. Also, the weekly RSI (a measure of buying strength) is neutral, meaning there’s room for the price to go up before it becomes overbought.
2. @Grayscale: SEC filing for Bittensor Trust is bullish
Grayscale’s October 10 filing allows institutional investors to get exposure to TAO without holding the coins directly, similar to how they handle their Bitcoin ETF.
– Yahoo Finance (October 15, 2025)
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What this means: This is good news because regulated investment products attract more cautious, large-scale investors. TAO Synergies and xTAO already hold over $26 million in TAO, showing strong institutional backing.
3. @TAOSynergies: Nasdaq-listed firm’s $10M TAO purchase is bullish
TAO Synergies bought nearly 30,000 TAO tokens in July at an average price of $334, calling decentralized AI the “1996 internet moment.”
– CoinMarketCap (July 18, 2025)
View article
What this means: This is positive because when companies buy and hold large amounts of TAO, it reduces the number of tokens available on the market, which can support higher prices. The firm aims to hold $100 million worth of TAO over time.
Conclusion
Overall, the outlook for TAO is optimistic. This is driven by growing institutional interest, promising technical signals, and the upcoming halving event in December that will cut new token supply by 50%. While the $500 price level remains a key resistance point, factors like staking rewards (around 10% annual yield) and growing network revenue (over $20 million yearly) provide strong support. Keep an eye on the $TAO/BTC trading ratio—if it breaks above 0.0015, it could signal a shift toward altcoin market strength.
What is the latest news about TAO?
Bittensor is managing growing interest from big investors and making important network improvements, all while dealing with a shaky market. Here’s the latest:
- Grayscale Files for TAO Trust (October 17, 2025) – Grayscale is seeking approval from the SEC to launch a fund focused on Bittensor, showing rising institutional interest.
- Subnet Deregistration Mechanism Launched (October 16, 2025) – Underperforming network subnets will be removed to focus on stronger AI projects.
- $48M Derivatives Outflows Cause Price Swings (October 17, 2025) – TAO’s price dropped 15% during the day, but buyers stepped in, adding $13.7 million in spot purchases.
In-Depth Look
1. Grayscale Files for TAO Trust (October 17, 2025)
What Happened?
Grayscale, a major digital asset manager, filed paperwork with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to create a Bittensor Trust. This fund would let institutional investors gain regulated exposure to TAO without owning the coins directly. This move follows an announcement by Barry Silbert, founder of Digital Currency Group, about a new fund focused on Bittensor’s AI infrastructure.
Why It Matters
This is a positive sign for TAO because it shows growing confidence from large financial players in decentralized AI technology. If approved, it could bring more traditional investment money into Bittensor. However, regulatory approval is still uncertain. (Bitrue)
2. Subnet Deregistration Mechanism Launched (October 16, 2025)
What Happened?
The OpenTensor Foundation set a limit of 128 subnets on the Bittensor network. They introduced a system where new subnets can replace the lowest-performing ones. New subnets get a 4-month grace period to prove they add value before they can be removed.
Why It Matters
This change encourages higher-quality AI projects on the network, which could increase TAO’s usefulness. When subnets are removed, their tokens are redistributed to holders of alpha tokens, helping improve liquidity. (Binance Square)
3. $48M Derivatives Outflows Cause Price Swings (October 17, 2025)
What Happened?
TAO’s price dropped 15% in one day, falling to $370, as traders closed $48 million worth of derivatives positions. This reduced open interest by 21%. Despite this, spot buyers invested $13.7 million, with exchanges like Binance and OKX showing strong buying activity.
Why It Matters
The large derivatives sell-off shows short-term caution among traders, but the steady spot buying indicates longer-term confidence in TAO. Positive funding rates and technical signals suggest the price could recover. (AMBCrypto)
Conclusion
Bittensor is balancing growing interest from big investors like Grayscale and important network upgrades with market ups and downs. While the recent derivatives sell-off points to some short-term risk, strong spot buying and attractive staking rewards (over 10%) show the network’s resilience. The big question remains: Will the SEC approve Grayscale’s TAO Trust, or will regulatory delays slow down this momentum?
What is expected in the development of TAO?
Bittensor’s upcoming plans focus on expanding its network, improving its technology, and adjusting its economic model.
- Subnet Deregistration Update (October 16, 2025) – New rules to replace underperforming subnets and encourage competition.
- First TAO Halving (Mid-December 2025) – Daily TAO rewards cut in half, from 7,200 to 3,600 TAO.
- EVM Compatibility Launch (Q4 2025) – Support for Ethereum smart contracts on Bittensor.
In-Depth Look
1. Subnet Deregistration Update (October 16, 2025)
Bittensor limits the number of subnets to 128. After a four-month grace period, the lowest-performing subnets will be replaced by new ones (BlockBeats). TAO tokens from these underperforming subnets will be redistributed to active participants, freeing up resources for better-performing projects.
Why it matters: This encourages developers to build high-quality subnets, reduces inactive token supply, and could attract more builders to the platform. However, there might be short-term price swings as weaker subnets exit.
2. First TAO Halving (Mid-December 2025)
The daily TAO rewards will be cut from 7,200 to 3,600, similar to Bitcoin’s halving events. This happens as the total TAO supply approaches 10.5 million tokens (Coinspeaker).
Why it matters: This reduces the number of new TAO tokens entering the market, which could support or increase the token’s price over time. However, subnet operators might face tighter budgets. Historically, Bitcoin halvings have led to long-term price gains if demand stays strong.
3. EVM Compatibility Launch (Q4 2025)
Bittensor will add support for the Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM), allowing developers to run Ethereum smart contracts directly on Bittensor’s network (CoinMarketCap).
Why it matters: This makes it easier for Ethereum developers to build on Bittensor, potentially speeding up innovation and growth. Success depends on how smoothly this integration works and whether developers are motivated to participate.
Summary
Bittensor’s roadmap combines technical improvements (EVM support), economic changes (halving), and quality control (subnet deregistration). These moves aim to strengthen Bittensor’s role as a decentralized AI platform while managing token supply and encouraging high-quality development.
Will institutional investments through Grayscale’s ETP filing balance out any selling pressure from miners after the halving?
What updates are there in the TAO code base?
Bittensor’s technology has been upgraded to better support decentralized AI growth through important improvements.
- Dynamic TAO Upgrade (February 2025) – Changed how rewards are given, now based on subnet performance.
- EVM Compatibility Rollout (2024–2025) – Made it possible for AI models to work across different blockchain networks.
- First TAO Halving (December 12, 2025) – Cut daily token emissions in half, from 7,200 to 3,600 TAO.
Deep Dive
1. Dynamic TAO Upgrade (February 2025)
What happened: Instead of a fixed number of tokens being released, rewards now depend on how well each subnet performs. Staking (locking up tokens to support the network) was adjusted so that more active and useful subnets get more support and rewards.
This means that subnets that provide better AI services—measured by things like accuracy and uptime—will attract more tokens and validators. Validators spread their stake based on how valuable each subnet is.
Why it matters: This change encourages developers to create high-quality AI services because their rewards depend on real-world use. This is a positive sign for Bittensor (TAO). (Source)
2. EVM Compatibility Rollout (2024–2025)
What happened: Bittensor now supports Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM) compatibility, meaning AI models and decentralized apps (dApps) can run on Ethereum-compatible blockchains like Polygon and Arbitrum.
This allows developers to use Ethereum’s tools and liquidity while still benefiting from Bittensor’s decentralized AI network.
Why it matters: In the short term, this doesn’t change much for TAO’s value, but in the long run, it could help Bittensor grow by making it easier to connect with other blockchain ecosystems. (Source)
3. First TAO Halving (December 12, 2025)
What happened: The daily amount of new TAO tokens created will be cut in half—from 7,200 to 3,600—once the circulating supply hits 10.5 million TAO (half of the maximum supply).
Unlike Bitcoin’s halving, which happens every 210,000 blocks, Bittensor’s halving happens every four years or when certain supply milestones are reached.
Why it matters: Reducing token emissions can create scarcity, which may increase TAO’s value if demand for decentralized AI computing grows. However, how the market will react is still unknown. (Source)
Conclusion
Bittensor’s updates show a clear focus on building a scalable and incentive-driven AI network. The Dynamic TAO upgrade and EVM compatibility make the ecosystem stronger and more flexible. The upcoming halving introduces a deflationary factor that could boost TAO’s value. It will be important to watch how these changes affect validator participation and subnet growth after 2025.
Why did the price of TAO go up?
Bittensor (TAO) increased by 4.74% in the last 24 hours, outperforming the overall crypto market’s modest 0.84% rise. This growth is driven by growing interest from big investors, technical signs of a rebound, and excitement about its upcoming first halving event.
- Grayscale’s Bittensor Trust filing (Positive for TAO)
- Recovery after derivatives sell-off (Mixed effects)
- Anticipation of the halving event (Positive catalyst)
In-Depth Analysis
1. Institutional Interest (Positive for TAO)
What happened: On October 10, Grayscale filed paperwork with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to create a Bittensor Trust. This trust will allow large investors to invest in TAO without owning the coins directly. This move follows Digital Currency Group’s announcement of a new AI-focused investment firm connected to Bittensor.
Why it matters: When big institutions show interest, it often means confidence in the project’s technology—in this case, TAO’s decentralized AI platform. The Grayscale Trust is similar to early Bitcoin ETFs, which helped increase liquidity and bring crypto into the mainstream.
What to watch: Keep an eye on how the SEC responds to this filing and how much institutional money flows into the trust.
2. Derivatives Market Recovery (Mixed Effects)
What happened: On October 16, TAO’s price dropped 15% due to $48 million flowing out of derivatives (complex financial contracts). However, the price bounced back to $403 as regular buyers stepped in. Funding rates for derivatives turned positive, suggesting traders are becoming more optimistic.
Why it matters: Initially, traders using derivatives sold off due to fears of further price drops, pushing TAO down to $370 during the day. But buyers purchasing the actual tokens helped stabilize the price. Trading volumes on Binance and OKX exchanges show retail investors are hopeful.
What to watch: Watch if spot buying continues to support the price or if derivatives traders increase leverage again. A drop below $370 could trigger more selling.
3. Halving Event Excitement (Positive Catalyst)
What happened: Bittensor’s first halving is expected in December 2025. This event will cut the daily supply of new TAO tokens from about 7,200 to 3,600.
Why it matters: With fewer new tokens entering the market, demand could outpace supply, potentially driving prices higher. This is especially relevant as more subnets (independent networks within Bittensor) are being adopted—118 active subnets as of June 2025. While halvings have historically increased value in other cryptocurrencies, this will be TAO’s first, so the outcome is uncertain.
Summary
TAO’s recent price increase is fueled by growing institutional support, a rebound in spot buying after derivatives sell-offs, and excitement about the upcoming halving. However, volatility in derivatives markets and overall market caution (Crypto Market Fear & Greed Index at 25/100) remain risks.
What to monitor: Will TAO break through resistance at $410 over the next week and aim for $450, or will investors take profits and push prices down? Also, watch for updates on Grayscale’s SEC approval and the growth in subnet adoption.