Why did the price of TAO fall?
Bittensor (TAO) dropped 3.17% in the last 24 hours, underperforming the overall crypto market, which fell just 0.077%. The main reasons for this decline include:
- Heavy Selling Activity – Sellers have been in control for over four days, with 7,400 more sell orders than buy orders on October 21.
- Resistance Level Rejection – TAO failed to break above the $467.89 Fibonacci resistance level, leading traders to take profits.
- Cautious Market Ahead of Economic Data – Investors reduced risk ahead of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report and uncertainty around Federal Reserve interest rate decisions.
In-Depth Analysis
1. Selling Pressure in the Market (Bearish Signal)
Summary: Data from CryptoQuant shows that since October 16, sellers have been outnumbering buyers, peaking with 7,400 more sell orders than buys on October 21. TAO’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 56 formed a bearish crossover, and the price fell below its 9-day moving average of $416.
What this means: This ongoing selling suggests traders are locking in profits after TAO’s 35.7% price recovery following a crash on October 11. Additionally, weakness in AI-related tokens like Fetch.ai (FET), which dropped 30% over the week, has added pressure across the sector.
What to watch: If TAO closes consistently below the $378 daily support level, it could continue to fall toward the 21-day moving average at $367.
2. Technical Resistance Rejection (Mixed Outlook)
Summary: TAO tested the 23.6% Fibonacci resistance level at $403.65 but was pushed back, aligning with its 7-day simple moving average (SMA) at $402.44. The MACD histogram remains positive (+3.71), but momentum is weakening, favoring short-term sellers.
What this means: The rejection at this key technical level increased bearish sentiment. However, the 30-day SMA at $347.19 offers medium-term support, which could attract buyers looking for a dip.
What to watch: If TAO can break back above $405, it may regain upward momentum toward $460.
3. Market Caution Due to Economic Factors (Neutral Effect)
Summary: Bitcoin dropped 2.5% on October 21 as investors took a defensive stance ahead of the October 24 CPI report. The crypto Fear & Greed Index stayed at 29, indicating "Extreme Fear," which dampened demand for altcoins like TAO.
What this means: Because TAO’s price is closely linked to Bitcoin (with a 0.78 correlation this year), it was vulnerable to broader market sell-offs driven by economic uncertainty. On the positive side, Grayscale’s recent SEC filing to create a TAO Trust (October 14) shows growing institutional interest, which could help stabilize TAO over time.
Conclusion
TAO’s recent price drop is mainly due to profit-taking after a strong rebound, weakness in AI-related tokens, and cautious trading ahead of key U.S. economic data. While short-term technical indicators suggest bearish pressure, ongoing institutional buying (TAO Synergies holds over 54,000 TAO) and the upcoming December halving event provide solid support.
Key points to watch: How the market reacts to the CPI report and whether TAO can maintain support at $378.
What could affect the price of TAO?
Bittensor’s price is caught between exciting AI developments and ongoing market uncertainty.
- Halving (Dec 2025) – A 50% cut in new coin supply could make TAO more scarce, especially if big investors keep buying.
- Institutional interest – Grayscale’s SEC filing and corporate purchases show growing long-term confidence.
- Technical outlook – Short-term selling pressure meets hopeful chart signs near $400.
Deep Dive
1. Halving & Supply Changes (Positive for Price)
What’s happening:
Bittensor’s first halving is expected on December 12, 2025. This event will reduce the daily new TAO coins created from 7,200 to 3,600, similar to how Bitcoin’s halving reduces supply to increase scarcity. Over 70% of TAO coins are already locked up by holders (Taostats), so fewer new coins entering the market could push prices higher if more people want to use or hold TAO.
Why it matters:
In the past, halving events have caused prices to rise because there are fewer new coins available while demand stays steady or grows. Miners (or validators) might sell less since their rewards drop, and big holders like TAO Synergies (which owns over 54,000 TAO) may keep accumulating. But if fewer people use the network, miners might earn less and lose interest, which could slow growth.
2. Institutional Adoption & Regulatory Risks (Mixed Effects)
What’s happening:
Grayscale has filed with the SEC to create a Bittensor Trust, aiming to offer a regulated way for investors to buy TAO, similar to their Bitcoin ETF approach (Form 10 filing). Meanwhile, companies like TAO Synergies and xTAO have added about 83,000 TAO (worth over $33 million) to their corporate holdings since July 2025.
Why it matters:
If the SEC approves Grayscale’s trust, it could bring a lot of new institutional money into TAO, potentially boosting the price like it did with Bitcoin ETFs. However, delays or rejection from regulators could cause price swings. Corporate buying reduces the number of coins available to trade (which can push prices up), but if these big holders decide to sell suddenly, it could lead to sharp drops—as seen in October when TAO’s price fell 10% despite TAO Synergies buying more coins.
3. Technical Market Signals (Short-Term Caution)
What’s happening:
TAO is facing resistance around $416, after dropping 13% in one week. Indicators show some bearish signs: the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has fallen to 56, and daily selling is outpacing buying by about 7,400 TAO (CryptoQuant). However, a chart pattern called a “falling wedge” suggests a possible breakout to $540 if the price can climb back above $467.
Why it matters:
Right now, selling pressure is stronger, but some technical signals and Grayscale’s upcoming decision could spark a price rebound. If TAO falls below $367, it might drop further to $300. Holding above $400 could restart a strong upward trend in 2024, potentially increasing by 192%.
Conclusion
Bittensor’s price will likely be shaped by the December 2025 halving, which reduces supply, combined with growing institutional interest and mixed technical signals. Grayscale’s regulatory progress is a key factor to watch. Traders should keep an eye on the $367 to $416 price range for clues about the next move. Will TAO’s AI-driven potential overcome broader market challenges, or will a deeper pullback be needed before the next rally?
What are people saying about TAO?
The Bittensor (TAO) community is divided between strong long-term holders and cautious traders as excitement about the upcoming halving meets resistance in the market. Here’s what’s trending:
- Institutions are investing heavily in TAO – Big players like Nasdaq firms and Grayscale are driving price targets up to $1,000.
- Optimism for Q4 based on broader market trends – Changes in Federal Reserve policies and growth in Bittensor’s network spark positive outlooks.
- Technical analysis shows mixed signals – The price keeps hitting resistance around $434 but also shows signs of potential breakouts.
Deep Dive
1. @hayekai: TAO’s Q4 price forecast between $600 and $1,150 is bullish
“The halving is just 70 days away and hasn’t been priced in yet. Subnet deregulation is ongoing, and the BTC/TAO ratio is stabilizing – we haven’t seen the full potential yet.”
– @hayekai (58K followers · 412K impressions · 2025-10-09 14:39 UTC)
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What this means: This forecast implies a 169% to 289% increase from the current price of $397. The expectation is that the halving will reduce daily TAO emissions to 3,600, combined with growing institutional buying, which could drive prices higher.
2. @taocat_agent: Bittensor’s role in decentralized AI’s $500 trillion market is bullish
“Bittensor is shaking up centralized AI and financial markets with new subnet revenue models.”
– @taocat_agent (23K followers · 189K impressions · 2025-09-20 17:23 UTC)
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What this means: Bittensor currently has 32 active subnets generating over $20 million in annual revenue. While this shows strong growth within crypto-focused applications, broader adoption outside of crypto is still uncertain.
3. CoinMarketCap Analysis: $434 price resistance signals bearish pressure
“If the price falls below $376 support, it could drop to $309 — 45% below the April 2024 highs.”
– CMC Technical Analyst (Post date: 2025-05-20 14:53 UTC)
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What this means: Technical indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) dropping from 56 to 49 and a bearish crossover in the MACD suggest that momentum is weakening, despite a 27% gain over the past month.
Conclusion
The overall outlook for TAO is optimistic but cautious. Institutional investors are accumulating, as seen with TAO Synergies holding 54,000 TAO in their treasury, but technical challenges remain. The upcoming halving in December 2025, which will cut daily TAO emissions in half to 3,600, could increase price volatility. For now, the price range between $370 and $434 is a key area to watch for signs of strength or weakness.
What is the latest news about TAO?
Bittensor is making moves with growing institutional interest and regulatory progress as its network expands. Here’s the latest update:
- TAO Synergies Buys 54,000 Tokens (October 21, 2025) – The largest public holder increases its stake despite a weak market.
- Bunq Adds TAO Staking in Europe (October 21, 2025) – TAO becomes available for flexible staking through a partnership with Kraken.
- Grayscale Files SEC Form 10 for TAO Trust (October 20, 2025) – Institutional adoption speeds up with regulatory filings underway.
Deep Dive
1. TAO Synergies Buys 54,000 Tokens (October 21, 2025)
Overview:
TAO Synergies (TAOX), a treasury firm listed on Nasdaq and focused on Bittensor, increased its holdings to 54,058 TAO tokens (worth about $21.4 million). This happened even though TAO’s price dropped 10% after failing to break $460. The firm raised $11 million from investors including DCG and James Altucher to fund these purchases. They staked 42,111 TAO, aiming for roughly a 10% annual return.
What this means:
This shows strong long-term confidence from institutional investors, but it hasn’t stopped overall selling pressure in the market. Data from CryptoQuant shows four straight days of net selling, including 7,400 TAO sold on October 21. TAO’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 56, and its price remains below important moving averages. If buying continues, it could help stabilize prices, especially if broader market conditions improve.
(AMB Crypto)
2. Bunq Adds TAO Staking in Europe (October 21, 2025)
Overview:
Dutch digital bank Bunq has launched flexible staking for TAO tokens across the European Union through Kraken. This service allows users to stake TAO with the option to withdraw instantly, earning about 8.25% annual yield after fees. TAO is one of 20 supported assets, aimed at making staking easy for everyday users.
What this means:
This is a positive step for adoption, giving Bunq’s 20 million users a simple way to participate. However, there are risks: slashing penalties apply if validators make errors (though Kraken covers this), there’s no deposit insurance, and staking rewards are taxable. Also, Bunq charges a 25% fee on rewards, which is higher than the typical 10-15% in the market, possibly limiting appeal. Still, this move helps connect traditional finance with decentralized AI technology.
(Cointribune)
3. Grayscale Files SEC Form 10 for TAO Trust (October 20, 2025)
Overview:
Grayscale, a major digital asset manager, has allocated one-third of its Decentralized AI Fund to TAO and filed a Form 10 registration with the SEC for the Grayscale Bittensor Trust. This filing aims to list shares on over-the-counter (OTC) markets. The trust currently holds $10.8 million worth of TAO, following a strategy similar to their Bitcoin ETF.
What this means:
This is a neutral to positive sign for institutional liquidity. If approved, the lock-up period for TAO tokens would be reduced from 12 months to 6 months, making it easier for early investors to exit. However, the SEC’s approach to AI-related tokens is still unclear, so regulatory risks remain.
(Yahoo Finance)
Conclusion
Bittensor’s story is shaped by growing institutional interest (from TAO Synergies and Grayscale) and easier access for users (via Bunq staking), balanced by technical market weakness and regulatory uncertainty. Looking ahead, December’s halving event—which will reduce daily TAO token emissions to 3,600—could create scarcity that drives demand, even if broader economic challenges persist.
What is expected in the development of TAO?
Bittensor’s roadmap highlights important upgrades to its protocol, adjustments to token emissions, and efforts to grow its ecosystem.
- First Halving (December 12, 2025) – Daily TAO token issuance will be cut in half, dropping from 7,200 to 3,600 tokens.
- Subnet Deregistration (Ongoing) – Underperforming network subnets will be rotated out to keep the system running efficiently.
- Institutional Adoption (Q4 2025) – Grayscale’s filing for a Bittensor Trust points to more regulated investment options for TAO.
Deep Dive
1. First Halving (December 12, 2025)
Overview: Bittensor will reduce the number of new TAO tokens created each day by 50%, from 7,200 to 3,600. This is similar to Bitcoin’s approach to limiting supply, but instead of happening on a fixed schedule, it triggers once the total supply hits 10.5 million TAO (CoinMarketCap).
What this means: This reduction in supply is generally positive for TAO’s value because fewer new tokens entering the market can increase demand. Institutional investors, like xTAO and TAO Synergies, are expected to buy and hold more tokens. However, miners who validate transactions might earn less, which could temporarily reduce their participation in the network.
2. Subnet Deregistration (Ongoing)
Overview: The OpenTensor Foundation has set a limit of 128 subnets (smaller networks within Bittensor) and will remove those that don’t perform well after a 4-month warning period. Tokens from these removed subnets (called α tokens) are then redistributed to holders, making better use of capital (Binance Square).
What this means: This change helps improve the overall quality of the network but could cause price swings for tokens tied to specific subnets. Validators might move their stakes to better-performing subnets, which could concentrate rewards and influence among fewer participants.
3. Institutional Adoption (Q4 2025)
Overview: Grayscale’s recent filing to create a Bittensor Trust and xTAO’s $16 million treasury show growing interest from institutional investors. These groups stake their TAO tokens to earn about 10% annual returns while helping run the network’s validators (Yahoo Finance).
What this means: This is a positive sign for TAO because it opens the door to more regulated and mainstream investment. However, large holdings by companies like xTAO (which owns around 41,000 TAO) could lead to bigger price swings if these holders decide to sell during market downturns.
Conclusion
Bittensor’s roadmap carefully balances tightening its protocol through measures like halving and subnet optimization with expanding its ecosystem through institutional investment. While reducing token emissions and improving validator incentives support long-term value, challenges like subnet competition and regulatory oversight remain. The big question for 2026 is how the growth of decentralized AI will impact TAO’s token economics.
What updates are there in the TAO code base?
Bittensor’s latest updates focus on making the platform more connected, rewarding, and scalable.
- EVM Compatibility Rollout (2025) – Lets AI models run across different blockchain networks.
- Uniswap V3 Liquidity Integration (August 2025) – Offers more flexible staking options.
- Dynamic TAO Upgrade (February 2025) – Links rewards to the performance of AI subnets.
In-Depth Look
1. EVM Compatibility Rollout (2025)
What it is: Bittensor now supports Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM), which means AI models and decentralized apps (dApps) can work smoothly on multiple blockchains like Polygon or Arbitrum.
This update uses cross-chain messaging and standard smart contracts to make it easier for developers to move their projects between networks.
Why it matters: This broadens Bittensor’s reach beyond its own blockchain, attracting developers and users from the Ethereum community, which is a big plus for the TAO token. (KoinSaati)
2. Uniswap V3 Liquidity Integration (August 2025)
What it is: Bittensor has added Uniswap V3’s advanced liquidity features to its staking system.
Validators and delegators can now provide liquidity within specific price ranges, making better use of their capital. This lowers costs for large TAO trades and can increase earnings from staking.
Why it matters: This improves the economics of staking TAO, making it more attractive, especially for experienced users. Everyday users will also find it easier to buy and sell TAO smoothly. (KoinSaati)
3. Dynamic TAO Upgrade (February 2025)
What it is: The reward system for TAO has changed from fixed daily payouts to a performance-based model.
Now, AI subnets earn TAO based on how much computing power they provide and how many users they attract. Instead of a set 7,200 TAO per day, rewards adjust automatically each cycle.
Why it matters: This encourages better AI services and innovation, which can increase the overall value of the network and the TAO token. (KoinSaati)
Conclusion
Bittensor’s updates highlight its commitment to cross-chain compatibility, smarter rewards, and better tools for developers—key factors for growing decentralized AI. With the first TAO halving coming in December 2025, it will be interesting to see how lower token emissions affect competition among AI subnets and the movement of TAO tokens.