What could affect the price of HYPE?

Hyperliquid’s price is caught between promising upgrades and challenging market conditions.

1. Protocol Upgrades (Positive) – The upcoming HIP-3 upgrade introduces permissionless perpetual contracts, which could increase platform use.
2. Regulatory Risks (Negative) – Delays from the SEC and scrutiny from the CFTC put ETF approval chances at risk.
3. Market Sentiment (Mixed) – Weak technical indicators and money flowing out of altcoins counterbalance ongoing buyback support.

Deep Dive

1. Protocol Upgrades & Ecosystem Growth (Positive Impact)

Overview: On October 13, 2025, Hyperliquid will launch HIP-3, allowing anyone who stakes 500,000 HYPE tokens (about $20 million) to create perpetual contracts with customizable terms. This feature could attract more traders and increase fee revenue, 97% of which is used to buy back HYPE tokens. Additionally, 21Shares has applied for approval to launch a 2x leveraged HYPE ETF, which is currently under review by the SEC (21Shares).

What this means: If more people use the platform and the ETF gets approved, demand for HYPE could rise. Also, staking large amounts of HYPE might temporarily reduce the number of tokens available for trading, potentially pushing the price up.

2. Regulatory Uncertainty & Competition (Negative Impact)

Overview: The SEC is currently dealing with a backlog of ETF applications, including the one from 21Shares for HYPE, partly due to a government shutdown. At the same time, Hyperliquid is losing market share in perpetual contracts to competitors like Aster and ApeX Protocol (CoinGape).

What this means: Delays in ETF approval could keep investor sentiment low. Plus, increased competition may reduce fee income, which is a key source of value for Hyperliquid. If Hyperliquid can’t regain its market position, the price could continue to fall, following its 36% drop so far this year.

3. Technicals & Market Sentiment (Mixed Impact)

Overview: HYPE is currently trading below an important support level at $33.35, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 31, indicating it’s oversold. Meanwhile, the Fear & Greed Index is at 28, and Bitcoin holds 59% market dominance, suggesting investors are cautious about altcoins.

What this means: There could be short-term price rebounds up to around $37.47, but a sustained recovery likely depends on Bitcoin staying above $100,000 and more money flowing back into altcoins.

Conclusion

Hyperliquid’s price will depend on how well HIP-3 is adopted, balanced against regulatory delays and overall market caution. Traders should watch for ETF approval decisions expected in the fourth quarter of 2025 and keep an eye on Hyperliquid’s open interest, which dropped 12% last week. The key question is whether HYPE’s buyback program can counteract the outflow of funds from altcoins if Bitcoin continues to dominate the market.

What are people saying about HYPE?

The Hyperliquid (HYPE) community is feeling a mix of excitement and caution. Here’s what’s making headlines:

1. Big investors, known as whales, are betting on HYPE to bounce back after a recent drop 🐋
2. Technical experts are watching for a potential price jump above $50, despite some negative signs 📈
3. A large amount of HYPE tokens, worth $500 million, will become available each month, raising concerns about oversupply 🔓
4. Arthur Hayes’ prediction of a 126x price increase is keeping long-term optimism alive 🚀

Deep Dive

1. @MaelstromFund: “Team unlocks threaten HYPE’s rally” bearish

“Starting Nov 29, 237.8 million HYPE tokens (valued at $11.9 billion) will be unlocked monthly – the market hasn’t factored in this huge increase in supply.”
– @MaelstromFund (18.2K followers · 2.1M impressions · 2025-09-22 07:30 UTC)
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What this means: This is a negative sign for HYPE because the monthly unlocking of tokens could lead to more selling pressure. This might outweigh any buying activity, especially since the token’s price has already dropped 37% in the past month.

2. @cryptonary: “HYPE eyes $70 post-breakout” bullish

“A bullish pattern called a ‘bull flag’ is forming on the weekly chart – breaking past $45.80 could open the way to $60–$70. The key support level is $49; if it falls below that, the pattern fails.”
– @cryptonary (142K followers · 6.7M impressions · 2025-09-13 21:06 UTC)
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What this means: This is a positive sign for HYPE. The technical indicators suggest a potential price increase, supported by Hyperliquid’s strong position in decentralized perpetual contracts, holding 70% of the market and $3.56 billion in total value locked (TVL).

3. @CoinRank_io: “Hayes’ 126x prediction goes viral” bullish

“If Hyperliquid captures 26.4% of the $10 trillion stablecoin market, HYPE could generate $25.8 billion in annual revenue compared to its current $41 billion fully diluted valuation (FDV).”
– @CoinRank_io (89K followers · 3.4M impressions · 2025-08-25 04:22 UTC)
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What this means: This is an optimistic long-term outlook. However, it depends on Hyperliquid maintaining its market leadership against competitors like dYdX and Aster.

4. @KryptoFantom: “DEX rivals erode HYPE’s dominance” bearish

“Hyperliquid’s market share in perpetual contracts has dropped from 80% to 34% – consider selling before competitors like Lighter and Aster take over.”
– @KryptoFantom (32K followers · 891K impressions · 2025-09-28 15:42 UTC)
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What this means: This is a warning sign as competition grows. Still, Hyperliquid handles $220 billion in monthly trading volume (according to DefiLlama), showing it remains a major player.

Conclusion

Opinions on HYPE are mixed. On one hand, strong technical signals and big investor interest suggest potential gains. On the other, upcoming token unlocks and shrinking market share raise concerns. Keep an eye on the November 29 unlock event and whether Hyperliquid’s upcoming HIP-3 upgrade, which will introduce permissionless perpetual markets, can boost developer activity and market confidence. As trader @0xMojojo put it: “You’re either a HYPE maximist or preparing exit liquidity.”

What is the latest news about HYPE?

Hyperliquid is facing challenges from market downturns and regulatory scrutiny. While HYPE is experiencing technical setbacks, it’s also gaining attention with new ETF proposals. Here’s the latest:

1. HIP-3 Upgrade Live (October 13, 2025) – The platform now lets users create perpetual futures markets without needing special permission, by staking 500,000 HYPE tokens.
2. 21Shares Files for 2x HYPE ETF (October 17, 2025) – A new leveraged ETF focused on HYPE has been proposed in the U.S., even as other altcoin ETFs are being sold off.
3. Market Share Declines (October 17, 2025) – Competitors Aster and Lighter have taken over 66% of the decentralized perpetual futures market, while HYPE’s price dropped significantly.

Deep Dive

1. HIP-3 Upgrade Live (October 13, 2025)

What happened: Hyperliquid launched the HIP-3 upgrade, allowing anyone who stakes 500,000 HYPE tokens (about $20 million) to set up their own perpetual futures markets with customizable rules. This upgrade also connects with HyperEVM, enabling smart contracts, and adds protections against validator misbehavior.
What it means: This change is neutral for HYPE’s price right now. While it could attract developers by making the platform more open, the high amount of tokens required to participate might lead to centralization. After an initial 12.33% price jump, HYPE’s value fell back, showing some doubt about how quickly this will be adopted. (CoinSpeaker)

2. 21Shares Files for 2x HYPE ETF (October 17, 2025)

What happened: 21Shares filed with the SEC to launch a 2x leveraged ETF based on HYPE. This is notable because many altcoin ETFs have been sold off recently, but this product aims to amplify gains (and losses) tied to Hyperliquid’s governance token.
What it means: This is cautiously positive news for HYPE. If approved, it could bring more institutional investment into decentralized finance (DeFi). However, the SEC is currently backlogged due to recent regulatory crackdowns, so approval might take time. Meanwhile, other big investors like ARK Invest are reducing their Bitcoin ETF holdings. (CryptoTimes)

3. Market Share Declines (October 17, 2025)

What happened: Hyperliquid’s share of the decentralized perpetual futures market dropped from 80% in August to 34% in October. Competitors Aster and Lighter have gained ground. HYPE’s price fell below a key support level of $35.50, dropping 22% in one week amid $1.2 billion in crypto liquidations.
What it means: This is a negative sign for HYPE. Losing market dominance and ongoing sell-offs are putting downward pressure on the token’s price. Analysts warn that HYPE could test a lower support level around $30.50 unless Hyperliquid can regain momentum with new products. (CoinGape)

Conclusion

Hyperliquid is balancing new technical upgrades and ETF interest against tough market conditions. While HIP-3 and the potential ETF offer hope for long-term growth, immediate challenges from competitors and broader economic fears are weighing heavily. With a large number of tokens set to unlock in November, the question remains: can Hyperliquid’s core strengths overcome the pressure from increased supply?

What is expected in the development of HYPE?

Hyperliquid is making steady progress with these key updates:

1. HIP-3 Ecosystem Expansion (Q4 2025) – After the upgrade, anyone staking 500,000 HYPE (~$17.65M) can create perpetual futures markets with their own settings, earning up to half the fees.
2. CoreWriter Integration (Q4 2025) – This feature lets HyperEVM smart contracts work directly with HyperCore’s orderbook, improving liquidity across blockchains and enabling advanced DeFi strategies.
3. USDH Stablecoin Adoption (2026) – The USDH stablecoin will expand its role, including sharing revenue and supporting cross-chain lending and automated investment plans.

Deep Dive

1. HIP-3 Ecosystem Expansion (Q4 2025)

What’s happening: On October 13, 2025, the HIP-3 upgrade went live. Now, anyone who stakes 500,000 HYPE tokens (worth about $17.65 million) can launch perpetual futures markets with customized rules. These market creators can earn up to 50% of the trading fees, encouraging more people to build on Hyperliquid without needing special permission.
Why it matters: This should increase demand for HYPE tokens since staking locks up a large supply. However, there’s a risk if only a few validators (currently 16) control the network, which could reduce decentralization and trust.

2. CoreWriter Integration (Q4 2025)

What’s happening: CoreWriter lets smart contracts on HyperEVM directly access HyperCore’s orderbook. This means better sharing of liquidity across different blockchains and the ability to create complex financial strategies, like delta-neutral yields (which aim to reduce risk while earning returns).
Why it matters: This is good news for developers and could lead to more money locked in the system (TVL). But because it’s technically advanced, it might take some time before many users adopt it.

3. USDH Stablecoin Adoption (2026)

What’s happening: USDH, a stablecoin linked to Hyperliquid and launched in September 2025, uses half of the protocol’s revenue to buy back tokens, helping support its value. Future plans include adding features like lending across blockchains and automated dollar-cost averaging (DCA) investment strategies.
Why it matters: If USDH becomes popular, it could strengthen the ecosystem. However, algorithmic stablecoins like USDH face regulatory challenges that could impact their growth.

Conclusion

Hyperliquid’s roadmap focuses on expanding decentralization (HIP-3), pushing technical innovation (CoreWriter), and increasing stablecoin usefulness (USDH) to strengthen its place in decentralized finance (DeFi) derivatives. With over 180 teams building on its Layer 1 blockchain, a key question remains: how will validator governance adapt to keep trust strong as the network grows?

What updates are there in the HYPE code base?

Hyperliquid is upgrading its platform to focus on decentralized trading of derivatives and making its ecosystem easier to use and scale.

1. HIP-3 Activation (October 13, 2025) – Lets developers create perpetual futures markets without needing permission by staking HYPE tokens.
2. Rabby Wallet Integration (September 4, 2025) – Makes trading perpetual contracts easier through the Rabby Wallet extension and mobile app.
3. HyperSwap UX Upgrade (September 4, 2025) – Simplifies swapping assets across different blockchains and improves liquidity management.

Deep Dive

1. HIP-3 Activation (October 13, 2025)

What it is: HIP-3 is a major update that allows developers to launch perpetual futures markets on HyperCore by staking 500,000 Hyperliquid (HYPE) tokens. This means market creation is decentralized—no longer controlled by the core Hyperliquid team.
The upgrade also connects with HyperEVM, enabling smart contracts to govern the system. It adds protections like penalties for validators who don’t follow the rules and limits on open interest (the total amount of active contracts).
Why it matters: This change encourages developers to build new markets, which could increase platform activity and fees, benefiting HYPE token holders. (Source)

2. Rabby Wallet Integration (September 4, 2025)

What it is: Hyperliquid’s technology now powers perpetual contract trading directly inside Rabby Wallet, a popular crypto wallet with over 12 million users. This means users can trade leveraged contracts without leaving Rabby’s app.
Why it matters: This integration makes trading more accessible but its impact on HYPE depends on how many Rabby users adopt the feature. (Source)

3. HyperSwap UX Upgrade (September 4, 2025)

What it is: HyperSwap’s user interface has been redesigned to reduce slippage (the difference between expected and actual trade prices) by 40%. It also introduces one-click swaps between different blockchains, like Bitcoin to Ethereum.
The upgrade improves gas fee estimates for HyperEVM transactions, reducing failed swaps by about 15%.
Why it matters: A smoother swapping experience attracts more users, increasing transaction volume and fees, which is positive for HYPE. (Source)

Conclusion

Hyperliquid is focusing on decentralizing its platform with HIP-3 and improving user experience through Rabby Wallet and HyperSwap upgrades. With open interest already over $10 billion, these updates could speed up growth in its derivatives trading ecosystem. A key question remains: how will validator incentives under HIP-3 balance encouraging innovation while managing risks?

Why did the price of HYPE fall?

Hyperliquid (HYPE) dropped 3.16% in the last 24 hours, underperforming the overall crypto market, which fell by 0.62%. This decline is part of a larger 30-day slide of 37%, caused by weak technical signals, growing competition from other platforms, and broad crypto market outflows.

1. Technical breakdown – The price fell below important support levels, leading to forced sell-offs.
2. Market share loss – Competing decentralized exchange platforms like Aster and ApeX are gaining users.
3. ETF-related altcoin selloff – Wall Street investors sold off risky crypto ETFs, including those linked to HYPE.

Deep Dive

1. Technical Breakdown (Negative Outlook)

Summary: HYPE’s price fell below a key support level at $35.50, which now acts as resistance. This breaks a previously bullish pattern and confirms a downward trend. The 7-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 31.31, indicating the coin is oversold but without signs of a rebound yet.

What this means:

• The MACD indicator (-0.81) shows that downward momentum is speeding up.
• Using Fibonacci retracement, the next support level is around $33.35.
• Increased forced sell-offs (liquidations) have added to the downward pressure, as reported by Coingape.

What to watch: If HYPE closes above the 7-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $38.67, it could signal easing bearish pressure.

2. Growing Competition from Other Platforms (Negative Outlook)

Summary: Hyperliquid’s lead in decentralized perpetual contracts is shrinking as competitors like Aster (supported by Binance’s CEO, CZ) and ApeX Protocol attract more traders.

What this means:

• Traders prefer platforms offering higher leverage, such as Aster’s 50x compared to Hyperliquid’s 40x.
• Protocol fees for HYPE dropped 18% month-over-month in October, reducing demand driven by buybacks.

What to watch: The adoption rate of Hyperliquid’s upcoming HIP-3 upgrade, which will allow users to deploy their own perpetual contracts, will be important to monitor.

3. Altcoin ETF Selloff (Mixed Impact)

Summary: On October 17, Wall Street investors pulled $530 million from crypto ETFs, with altcoin-focused funds like those linked to HYPE being hit hardest. The launch of the 21Shares HYPE ETF is delayed due to regulatory review by the SEC.

What this means:

• Less investment flowing into ETFs weakens a key source of demand for HYPE.
• Bitcoin’s market dominance increased to 58.95%, indicating investors are moving away from riskier altcoins like HYPE.

Conclusion

HYPE’s recent decline is the result of a combination of technical weaknesses, rising competition, and a broader market shift away from riskier crypto assets. Although the coin is oversold and may see a short-term rebound, it needs to break above $38.67 to signal a potential recovery.

Key levels to watch: Can HYPE hold the $33.35 support level, or will a drop to the $30 psychological level cause panic selling? Also, keep an eye on Bitcoin’s price—if it falls below $100,000, it could lead to further losses for altcoins like HYPE.