What could affect the price of HYPE?

Hyperliquid’s price is caught between two forces: efforts to reduce supply through token burns and growing competition in the market.

1. Token Burn Vote (Positive) – A proposal to cut $1 billion worth of HYPE tokens is awaiting approval.
2. Competitor Growth (Negative) – Hyperliquid’s share of the decentralized perpetuals exchange (perps DEX) market dropped from 80% to 34% in 2025.
3. Whale Activity (Mixed) – Large investors added over $12 million in HYPE recently, but their trading strategies add some uncertainty.

Deep Dive

1. Potential Supply Reduction (Positive for Price)

What’s happening:
A vote ending December 24, 2025, asks whether to burn 37 million HYPE tokens (about $1 billion), which would remove 10-13% of the tokens currently available. This follows a previous proposal to cut supply by 45% that was rejected.

Why it matters:
If approved, fewer tokens would be available, making each token potentially more valuable. Since nearly all fees collected by Hyperliquid are used to buy back tokens, this burn would strengthen the token’s value. While past token burns like FTT have had mixed results, Hyperliquid’s model, backed by real revenue (CoinMarketCap), looks promising.

2. Competition in Perpetuals DEX Market (Negative for Price)

What’s happening:
Hyperliquid’s control over the on-chain perpetuals market dropped to 34% by October 2025, as competitors like Lighter and Aster gained ground. Hyperliquid’s monthly trading volume fell to $160 billion, compared to Lighter’s $203 billion.

Why it matters:
Losing market share means less fee income, which is a key source of value for Hyperliquid. However, a new update called HIP-3, which launched permissionless markets and offers 90% fee discounts for new listings since October 2025, could help Hyperliquid regain momentum if more users and projects join.

3. Large Investor Activity (Mixed Impact)

What’s happening:
Big investors, or “whales,” bought over $12 million worth of HYPE in December 2025. At the same time, they opened $27 million in short positions on Bitcoin and Ethereum, indicating they are hedging their bets.

Why it matters:
This buying could support the price around $25, but the complex trading strategies involving derivatives could lead to sudden price swings if the market moves against these positions.

Conclusion

Hyperliquid’s price depends on successfully reducing token supply while competing in the fast-growing $1.2 trillion monthly perpetuals market. Short-term price swings are expected, especially with a large token unlock scheduled for January. The success of HIP-3’s “growth mode” in attracting new users and projects will be key to offsetting competition. Keep an eye on upcoming validator votes and weekly market share data for clues on where the price is headed.

What are people saying about HYPE?

The conversation around Hyperliquid (HYPE) swings between excitement about big gains and warnings to be careful. Here’s what’s trending right now:

1. Optimistic outlook expects prices to rise above $30, driven by growth in the platform and large investors buying in.
2. Cautious technical analysis suggests prices could fall to between $19 and $25.
3. Concerns about competition raise questions about HYPE’s ability to maintain its advantage over time.

Deep Dive

1. @SadCreatorTalks: Mixed crowd predictions on $30 breakout

"51% of prediction markets expect HYPE to reach $30... but if momentum shifts, it could drop to $19."
– @SadCreatorTalks (22.7K followers · 3.5K impressions · 2025-12-28 11:19 UTC)
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What this means: Opinions are split, reflecting HYPE’s price swings and how much the overall market is willing to take risks. The $30 target fits with recent price ranges from December 2025 ($23–$27), while a drop to $19 would mean losing about 26% of its current value.

2. @Inam_Az1: Technical signals warn of possible 10% drop

"There’s an 80% chance of a price drop if HYPE closes below $25.50 on the 4-hour chart."
– @Inam_Az1 (812 followers · 5.8K impressions · 2025-12-21 20:55 UTC)
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What this means: Traders using charts see weakening momentum because HYPE is struggling to stay above its average price over the last 30 days ($27.30). If it falls below $25.50, it might test the December low of $22.50, where many forced sales happened before.

3. @akandeolamilek7: Large investors buy $12 million in HYPE

“$12 million worth of HYPE purchased in the last two weeks – a strong sign from on-chain data.”
– @akandeolamilek7 (1.4K followers · 2.1K impressions · 2025-12-20 12:06 UTC)
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What this means: Big investors (often called “whales”) are buying HYPE around current prices ($24–$26), likely expecting positive events in early 2026 like the HIP-3 upgrade and token burns. Still, 37% of the total supply is locked up until 2027–2028, limiting how much can be traded.

Conclusion

Overall, opinions on Hyperliquid (HYPE) are mixed. The platform shows strong growth with a 71% share of the perpetual decentralized exchange (DEX) market, but faces challenges like technical resistance and concerns about centralization (only 21 validators compared to Ethereum’s 14,000+ nodes). Key levels to watch are the $25.50 support and the January token unlock, when 1.2 million HYPE tokens will go to team wallets. A move above or below these points could set the tone for 2026.

What is the latest news about HYPE?

Hyperliquid is benefiting from the growing popularity of decentralized finance (DeFi) derivatives, even as it faces challenges from upcoming token unlocks. Here are the key updates:

1. Record Onchain Perpetual Futures Volume (December 29, 2025) – Hyperliquid handled $160.6 billion in perpetual futures trades this month.
2. Team Token Unlock (January 6, 2026) – 1.2 million HYPE tokens, worth about $31 million, will be unlocked for core team members.
3. Signs of Price Recovery (December 29, 2025) – After a 30% drop this month, the price has stabilized near $25.

Deep Dive

1. Leading in Derivatives Trading (December 29, 2025)

Overview:
Hyperliquid captured 16.5% of December’s total $972 billion onchain perpetual futures trading volume. It ranks behind Lighter ($203 billion) and Aster ($171.8 billion). This growth follows research from Coinbase showing traders are moving toward leveraged perpetual futures as altcoin markets remain quiet.

What this means:
This is positive for HYPE because the fees generated from derivatives trading fund token buybacks—99% of protocol fees go to the Assistance Fund, which burns tokens to reduce supply. However, Hyperliquid faces competition from rivals built on Ethereum and Binance Smart Chain, which use newer technology compared to Hyperliquid’s 2023 platform. (CoinTelegraph)

2. Upcoming Token Unlocks (December 29, 2025)

Overview:
On January 6, 2026, Hyperliquid Labs will unlock 1.2 million HYPE tokens (about $31 million) for the team. This follows a previous release of 1.75 million tokens in November. Currently, 61% of the total token supply remains locked.

What this means:
This could put short-term downward pressure on the price, as past unlocks have been linked to price drops of 18-22%. However, the team’s tokens are released gradually over 24 months, aligning their interests with the project’s long-term success. It’s important to watch how Flowdesk, the over-the-counter (OTC) desk that handled previous sales, manages these new tokens. (The Block)

3. Technical Price Recovery (December 29, 2025)

Overview:
After hitting a low of $22 in December, HYPE’s price bounced back 17% to $25.79. Analysts highlight:

• Strong support at $23.50, a key breakout level from 2024
• A 41% drop in selling volume compared to November

What this means:
This suggests that large traders, or “whales,” are accumulating HYPE tokens. Open interest in Hyperliquid’s derivatives increased by 18% this week. If the price can hold above $27.60, it might aim for $35. However, the current Fear & Greed Index score of 29 out of 100 advises caution.

Conclusion

Hyperliquid is well-positioned to benefit from the growing derivatives market in crypto but faces a critical test with the upcoming token unlocks in January. While the platform’s strong monthly volume (over $1 billion) supports its fundamentals, traders will be watching closely to see if selling pressure from unlocked tokens outweighs the positive impact of token buybacks. The key question is whether Hyperliquid’s fee-driven token burn system can balance out the dilution in the first quarter of 2026.

What is expected in the development of HYPE?

Hyperliquid’s 2026 plan focuses on upgrading its platform, improving token economics, and growing its ecosystem.

1. Team Token Unlocks (January 6, 2026) – 1.2 million HYPE tokens will be released, with more unlocked monthly afterward.
2. Equity Perpetuals Expansion (2026) – Introducing 24/7 trading of tokenized stocks with crypto leverage.
3. HYPE Buybacks & Burns (Ongoing) – Nearly all fees collected are used to buy back and permanently remove tokens.
4. Airdrop Season 2 (2026) – Rewarding users for participating in the ecosystem to encourage growth.

Deep Dive

1. Team Token Unlocks (January 6, 2026)

Overview:
Hyperliquid Labs will release 1.2 million HYPE tokens (worth about $31 million at current prices) to its core team on January 6, 2026. After that, tokens will unlock monthly on the 6th (AlphaNewsX).

What this means:
This could put some short-term downward pressure on the token price as team members may sell tokens. However, because the tokens unlock gradually rather than all at once, it helps prevent big market shocks. Over the long term, this aligns the team’s interests with the success of the platform.

2. Equity Perpetuals Expansion (2026)

Overview:
Hyperliquid plans to offer equity perpetual contracts, which means users can trade tokenized stocks like those in the S&P 500 around the clock, using leverage (Finance Magnates).

What this means:
This is a positive development for adoption. It connects traditional finance (stocks) with decentralized finance (crypto), attracting users who want to trade stocks with crypto-style leverage. Competitors like Aster already offer very high leverage, so Hyperliquid will need to focus on speed and liquidity to compete.

3. HYPE Buybacks & Burns (Ongoing)

Overview:
Almost all fees collected by the platform (about $3.7 million daily) are used to buy back HYPE tokens. So far, 37 million tokens (about 15% of the total supply) have been approved for permanent removal from circulation (Ledora037).

What this means:
This is generally good for the token’s value because reducing the number of tokens available (called deflation) can increase scarcity. However, this depends on continued high trading volume, which faces competition from other platforms like Lighter and Aster.

4. Airdrop Season 2 (2026)

Overview:
There is growing speculation about a second round of airdrops—free token rewards for users who stake, trade, or provide liquidity on HyperEVM. The first season distributed 31% of tokens to users (HYPERDailyTK).

What this means:
Airdrops can encourage more users to join and increase trading and liquidity. However, giving out too many tokens could increase supply and potentially lower the token’s value if not managed carefully.

Conclusion

Hyperliquid’s 2026 roadmap aims to bring more traditional financial products into DeFi, improve token economics through buybacks and burns, and balance team rewards with community incentives. While the upcoming token unlocks may create short-term challenges, ongoing fee-driven token burns and new product offerings position HYPE well for long-term growth.

Will Hyperliquid’s equity perpetuals surpass centralized platforms like Binance in connecting traditional finance and DeFi?

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What updates are there in the HYPE code base?

Hyperliquid’s latest software updates focus on making market creation more decentralized and expanding its overall ecosystem.

1. Permissionless Perps via HIP-3 (October 13, 2025) – Now anyone can create perpetual futures markets by staking HYPE tokens, putting more control in the hands of the community.
2. HyperEVM Integration (Q4 2025) – Added support for Ethereum-compatible smart contracts, allowing decentralized finance (DeFi) apps to connect directly with Hyperliquid’s order books.
3. Security Enhancements (October 2025) – Introduced measures like validator penalties and limits on open interest to improve platform safety.

Deep Dive

1. Permissionless Perps via HIP-3 (October 13, 2025)

What it is: HIP-3 lets anyone launch perpetual futures markets on HyperCore by staking 500,000 HYPE tokens. This shifts control from the core team to individual builders and developers.

With this update, market creators can set their own rules for leverage, fees, and governance. Validators have the power to penalize bad actors, and there are caps on how much open interest a market can have (for example, $100 million per market) to reduce risk. This means new markets can be added without relying on centralized approval.

Why it matters: This is good news for HYPE holders because staking tokens reduces the number of tokens available in circulation. Plus, it could boost trading activity by allowing niche markets like equity derivatives or meme coins to flourish.

(Source)

2. HyperEVM Integration (Q4 2025)

What it is: Hyperliquid’s platform now supports Ethereum-compatible smart contracts through HyperEVM. This lets developers build DeFi applications that interact directly with HyperCore’s order books.

For example, lending and borrowing platforms like HyperLendx can use perpetual futures positions as collateral. Projects such as Liminal Money are already using this feature to create strategies that balance risk and reward.

Why it matters: In the short term, this doesn’t have a big impact on HYPE’s price, since it depends on developers building new apps. But over time, it could establish Hyperliquid as a key infrastructure layer in the DeFi space.

(Source)

3. Security Enhancements (October 2025)

What it is: HIP-3 also added safety features like:

• Validator slashing: Penalizing validators who approve fraudulent transactions.
• Open interest limits: Setting configurable caps on exposure per asset.
• Mandatory on-chain audits: Requiring new markets to be audited before launch.

Why it matters: These improvements address past concerns about centralization and security, such as the March 2025 incident involving the JELLY token. They help keep the platform stable and trustworthy.

(Source)

Conclusion

Hyperliquid’s updates focus on decentralizing market creation (HIP-3), improving compatibility with other DeFi apps (HyperEVM), and strengthening security. These changes support its vision of a fully on-chain financial ecosystem. While the technology empowers developers, the platform’s success will depend on how well the community adopts these new features.

Could HIP-3’s permissionless markets help Hyperliquid compete with rivals like Aster DEX? Only time will tell.

Why did the price of HYPE fall?

Hyperliquid (HYPE) dropped 1.79% to $25.52 over the past 24 hours, continuing a 25.4% decline over the last 30 days. The main reasons behind this include:

1. Increased competition – Other decentralized exchanges (DEXs) like Lighter and Aster are gaining more users.
2. Token unlock concerns – 1.2 million HYPE tokens will be unlocked and distributed to the team on January 6.
3. Technical resistance – The price struggled to break above key levels around $27.55 and $27.85.

Deep Dive

1. Competition Among Perpetual DEXs (Negative Impact)

Overview: Trading volume for onchain perpetual contracts reached $972 billion in the last 30 days. Hyperliquid ranked third with $160.6 billion, behind Lighter ($203 billion) and Aster ($171.8 billion) (CoinMarketCap).

What this means: Hyperliquid is losing market share as traders move to newer platforms that may offer lower fees or better incentives. Its share of decentralized perpetual trading dropped from nearly 75% in May 2025 to about 16.5% by December.

What to watch: January’s trading volumes and how fees are split among protocols.

2. Token Supply and Unlocks (Mixed Impact)

Overview: On January 6, 1.2 million HYPE tokens (worth about $30.6 million) will be distributed to Hyperliquid Labs as part of a team allocation that vests through 2027 (The Block).

What this means: Only 34% of the total 1 billion HYPE tokens are currently circulating. Regular token unlocks like this can increase supply and put downward pressure on the price. However, the team has proposed burning $1 billion worth of HYPE tokens collected from fees, which could help reduce selling pressure if approved.

3. Technical Analysis (Bearish Signals)

Overview: HYPE’s price is facing resistance near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $27.55 and the 30-day simple moving average (SMA) at $27.85. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 43, indicating no oversold condition, and the MACD remains negative despite a slight improvement.

What this means: The downward momentum is currently controlled by sellers. If the price falls below a key support level at $22.27 (the low from 2025), it could trigger automated selling.

Conclusion

The recent decline in HYPE reflects a combination of increased competition, concerns about token supply, and weak technical signals. While Hyperliquid remains one of the top three decentralized perpetual exchanges, the token needs consistent buying above $27.55 to reverse the current downtrend.

Key points to watch: Will the January 6 token distribution lead to more tokens being sold on exchanges? And will the $1 billion token burn proposal move forward in governance?