Why did the price of XMR fall?

Monero (XMR) dropped 1.63% in the last 24 hours, performing slightly better than the overall crypto market, which fell 2.05%. Here’s a quick look at why:

1. Privacy Coin Rally Split – While Zcash and Dash saw big gains, Monero didn’t keep up, partly because it was removed from some major exchanges.
2. Technical Weakness – Key price support around $307 didn’t hold, and technical indicators suggest more downward pressure.
3. Liquidity Concerns – Monero has less visibility and trading volume on exchanges compared to its competitors.
4. Market Mood – Overall fear in the crypto market and money moving out of altcoins affected Monero’s price.

In-Depth Analysis

1. Privacy Coin Rally Split (Negative for Monero)

Since October 9, privacy-focused coins like Zcash (ZEC) and Dash (DASH) surged by around 65-66%, helped by endorsements and strong technical moves. Monero didn’t follow this trend, largely because it was delisted from major exchanges like Binance and OKX (Cointelegraph), which reduced its trading liquidity.

What this means:

• Monero’s 24-hour trading volume ($188 million) is less than half of Zcash’s ($803 million), making its price more volatile.
• Investors preferred privacy coins that are easier to trade on popular exchanges, leaving Monero more vulnerable to selling pressure.

What to watch: Keep an eye on any news about Monero being relisted on major exchanges or changes in regulations affecting privacy coins.

2. Technical Weakness (Bearish Signals)

Monero’s price fell below its 7-day simple moving average (SMA) of about $307.93 and a key technical level called the 50% Fibonacci retracement at $307.37. The MACD indicator, which helps show momentum, is negative, indicating selling pressure.

What this means:

• If Monero can’t hold above $307, it could drop further toward $298, another important support level.
• The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 51, which is neutral but leaves room for more downside if selling continues.

3. Market Sentiment & Altcoin Outflows (Mixed Effects)

The overall crypto market mood is cautious, with the Fear & Greed Index at 33 out of 100, signaling fear. Bitcoin’s market share increased to 59.06%, as investors moved money out of altcoins like Monero.

What this means:

• Monero, which makes up about 0.15% of the total crypto market, is feeling pressure from this risk-averse environment.
• Data from derivatives markets shows a slightly positive funding rate for Monero, but overall interest is flat, suggesting traders are uncertain.

Conclusion

Monero’s recent price drop is due to a combination of challenges specific to privacy coins—like exchange delistings and lower liquidity—and broader market trends, including fear and altcoin sell-offs.

Key point to watch: Can Monero hold above the $298 support level to avoid a bigger decline? Also, watch for any updates on exchange listings and Bitcoin’s market dominance for clues on where Monero might head next.

What could affect the price of XMR?

Monero’s price depends on improvements in privacy technology, regulatory challenges, and the security of its network.

1. Privacy Upgrades – The Fluorine Fermi update (October 2025) helps block spy nodes.
2. Regulatory Pressure – The EU plans to ban privacy coins by 2027, leading to some exchanges dropping Monero.
3. Mining Centralization – In August 2025, the Qubic mining pool briefly controlled over half the network, raising concerns.

Deep Dive

1. Network-Level Privacy Enhancements (Positive for Price)

Overview: In October 2025, Monero launched the Fluorine Fermi upgrade, which improved how the network picks peers to avoid clusters of spy nodes on the same IP subnet. This fix addresses security weaknesses found in academic research (arXiv). Earlier upgrades, like the 2021 CLSAG update, lowered transaction fees by 20% and made the network more efficient.
What this means: Better privacy features can attract more users, especially as concerns about online surveillance grow. Past upgrades, such as Bulletproofs in 2018, led to price increases of 30–50%.

2. Regulatory Crackdowns (Negative for Price)

Overview: The European Union plans to ban privacy coins like Monero by July 2027 under anti-money laundering (AML) laws. Major cryptocurrency exchanges such as Binance and Kraken removed Monero trading between 2024 and 2025, which lowered liquidity (trading activity ratio: 0.0333).
What this means: With fewer places to buy and sell Monero, institutional investors may be less interested. However, the privacy-focused coin Zcash saw a 635% price increase in 2025, showing that strong user adoption can sometimes overcome regulatory challenges.

3. Mining Centralization Threats (Mixed Impact)

Overview: In August 2025, the Qubic mining pool briefly controlled 51% of Monero’s computing power, causing a 25% price drop and temporary deposit freezes on Kraken. The community responded by reducing Qubic’s share to 35%, but the risk remains.
What this means: This event exposed vulnerabilities in Monero’s network. Efforts to promote decentralization, like P2Pool mining, and an overall increase in network power (2.29 GH/s in 2025) may help restore confidence over time.

Conclusion

Monero’s future depends on balancing advanced privacy features with regulatory and mining risks. While short-term price swings are likely, ongoing demand for private, untraceable transactions could lead to recoveries. Will the EU’s 2027 ban push more users to decentralized exchanges, or will it limit Monero’s liquidity? Keep an eye on Qubic’s mining share and the number of shielded transactions for clues.

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What are people saying about XMR?

The Monero community is divided between optimism and concern. Here’s what’s making headlines:

1. Concerns about mining centralization after Qubic’s attempt to control over half of the network’s mining power
2. Positive price outlook based on technical analysis and long-term predictions
3. Regulatory challenges as demand for privacy clashes with some exchanges removing Monero

In-Depth Look

1. @Qubic: Mining Pool’s Power Move bearish

“We are accumulating hashrate critical mass through incentives… process is tied to pure economic incentives.”
– @Qubic (32.1K followers · 1.2M impressions · Aug 4, 2025, 11:29 AM UTC)
View original post
What this means: Qubic openly aims to control a large portion of Monero’s mining power, reaching 38% in August 2025. This raises concerns about possible transaction censorship and network instability, which led Kraken to temporarily freeze Monero deposits.

2. @jakexmr: Positive Price Predictions bullish

“Monero is the greatest currency on the planet… We're about to rip.”
– @jakexmr (89.4K followers · 2.7M impressions · Oct 10, 2025, 11:33 AM UTC)
View original post
What this means: Traders point to technical patterns like falling wedges and strong support around $269 as signs of a price rebound. Some forecasts expect Monero to reach $420 by the end of 2025 (CCN).

3. CoinMarketCap Community: Regulatory Challenges mixed

“Kraken Halts Monero Deposits Amid 51% Attack… resumed withdrawals within 24 hours.”
– CoinMarketCap Post (367K views · Aug 17, 2025, 9:54 AM UTC)
View original post
What this means: Although Kraken quickly resumed withdrawals after the attack scare, Monero was removed from major exchanges like Binance and OKX in 2024. This has hurt trading volume, which dropped 12% year-to-date compared to Zcash’s 350% increase.

Conclusion

The outlook for Monero is mixed. Its strong privacy features attract supporters, but risks from mining centralization and regulatory pressures remain. While some traders are optimistic about hitting $420, Qubic’s mining dominance and exchange delistings pose challenges. Keep an eye on Monero’s upcoming Fluorine Fermi update (released Oct 2025), designed to improve network security by preventing spying nodes through better peer selection—a key test of its commitment to decentralization.

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What is the latest news about XMR?

Monero is working on privacy improvements and adapting to market changes while other privacy coins gain momentum. Here are the key updates:

1. Signal App’s Bitcoin Integration Sparks Privacy Discussion (October 17, 2025) – Jack Dorsey supports adding Bitcoin to Signal, raising questions about Monero’s role in privacy-focused apps.
2. Fluorine Fermi Update Blocks Spy Nodes (October 15, 2025) – Monero upgrades its network to better protect user privacy by preventing surveillance.
3. Zcash and Dash Rally Leaves Monero Behind (October 16, 2025) – Other privacy coins surged, but Monero’s growth is limited due to being removed from some exchanges.

In-Depth Look

1. Signal App’s Bitcoin Integration Sparks Privacy Discussion (October 17, 2025)

Summary:
Jack Dorsey and Bitcoin developer Peter Todd are encouraging Signal to add Bitcoin payments using Cashu’s privacy protocol. This move aims to replace Signal’s current MobileCoin feature, which has struggled. Although Monero isn’t directly involved, some critics say Bitcoin’s transparent nature conflicts with Signal’s privacy goals. They suggest Monero or Zcash might be better options for privacy.

What this means:
This puts indirect pressure on Monero to demonstrate why it’s better for private transactions. If Signal chooses Bitcoin, demand for Monero in privacy apps could drop. Still, Monero’s built-in anonymity features remain unmatched for users who want complete privacy.
(Cointelegraph)

2. Fluorine Fermi Update Blocks Spy Nodes (October 15, 2025)

Summary:
Monero’s latest software update improves how nodes connect by avoiding groups of IP addresses that could be spying on transactions. This change comes after research showed that certain non-standard nodes could threaten user privacy.

What this means:
Improving network privacy is a positive step for Monero, reinforcing its main promise of anonymity. However, continued growth depends on balancing privacy with regulatory rules, especially since major exchanges like Binance and OKX have already removed Monero.
(CoinDesk)

3. Zcash and Dash Rally Leaves Monero Behind (October 16, 2025)

Summary:
Zcash (ZEC) and Dash (DASH) prices jumped over 65% after a recent market downturn, fueled by renewed interest in privacy coins. Monero didn’t keep up, mainly because it’s harder to buy and sell due to being delisted on some exchanges, despite having a larger market value.

What this means:
Monero’s slower growth shows how important easy access is for investors. While Monero’s technology remains strong, getting back on major exchanges is key to benefiting from the current interest in privacy coins. Technical charts show a potential upward trend, but Monero needs to break past the $330 price level to gain momentum.
(Cointelegraph)

Conclusion

Monero is at a crossroads: its technology continues to improve privacy, but limited market access holds it back. The big question is whether Monero’s community-driven development can overcome regulatory challenges and competition from other privacy coins. Keep an eye on rumors about Monero returning to exchanges and whether it can break the $330 resistance level to understand its short-term outlook.

What is expected in the development of XMR?

Monero is making steady progress with these key updates:

1. Full-Chain Membership Proofs (Q4 2025) – Improves how transactions are verified while keeping details private.
2. Monero Browser Wallet (Q4 2025) – Makes it easier to send private transactions directly through your web browser.
3. Seraphis & Jamtis Protocol (2026) – Upgrades how transactions work to boost privacy and make the system faster.
4. Bulletproofs++ (2026) – Shrinks transaction data and speeds up verification to save time and resources.

Deep Dive

1. Full-Chain Membership Proofs (Q4 2025)

Overview: FCMP++ is a cryptographic improvement funded by Monero’s Community Crowdfunding System (Luke Parker). It lets users prove their transactions are valid without revealing any sensitive information, fixing privacy gaps found in earlier methods.

What this means: This is good news for Monero (XMR) because it strengthens its main feature—keeping transactions untraceable. However, delays or technical challenges could slow down how quickly it’s adopted.

2. Monero Browser Wallet (Q4 2025)

Overview: Led by Spirobel and supported by community funding (Monero CCS), this wallet works right in your web browser. It allows private transactions without needing extra software or extensions.

What this means: This could attract more users by making Monero easier to use, which is a positive sign. Still, its success depends on how well it integrates with current web systems and how regulators view privacy tools.

3. Seraphis & Jamtis Protocol (2026)

Overview: Seraphis replaces the older RingCT system with a more advanced transaction protocol. Jamtis adds reusable payment codes to simplify sending funds privately. Both aim to make transactions smaller and easier to use (Monero Research Lab).

What this means: These upgrades could help Monero grow by making transactions faster and simpler. But they’ll need thorough testing and might face compatibility issues with existing wallets.

4. Bulletproofs++ (2026)

Overview: This is an enhancement to Monero’s current Bulletproofs system, focusing on making transaction proofs smaller and faster to verify. It’s still being researched (Monero Roadmap).

What this means: While this won’t drastically change Monero’s price, it helps keep Monero technically competitive with other privacy coins like Zcash.

Conclusion

Monero’s development plan focuses on strengthening privacy and making the system easier to use. The Full-Chain Membership Proofs and Browser Wallet are expected soon, while Seraphis/Jamtis and Bulletproofs++ aim for 2026. These updates could help Monero (XMR) stay ahead despite regulatory challenges and maintain its lead as a top privacy-focused cryptocurrency.

What updates are there in the XMR code base?

Monero’s recent software updates have strengthened privacy protections and tackled risks related to mining centralization.

1. Fluorine Fermi Update (October 10, 2025) – Improves how the network routes messages to block “spy nodes” that try to link transactions to IP addresses.
2. Publish or Perish Proposal (August 29, 2025) – Introduces penalties for miners who delay sharing new blocks, discouraging selfish mining practices.
3. Privacy Leak Patch (August 26, 2025) – Fixes a security flaw that could expose transaction details when using untrustworthy remote nodes.

Deep Dive

1. Fluorine Fermi Update (October 10, 2025)

What it is: This required upgrade boosts privacy by making it harder for “spy nodes” — network participants trying to connect your transactions to your IP address — to succeed. It does this by automatically connecting users to safer nodes and improving how messages travel through the network.

The update changes how nodes are selected, avoiding groups of nodes on the same IP subnet, which bad actors use to track transactions. It also alters message paths to make network activity harder to trace.

Why it matters: This strengthens Monero’s core promise of privacy, helping keep transactions untraceable even as surveillance methods get more advanced. (Source)

2. Publish or Perish Proposal (August 29, 2025)

What it is: This proposal aims to reduce the influence of large mining pools like Qubic that can dominate Monero’s mining power. It includes two parts: a soft fork that penalizes miners who hold back blocks (a tactic called selfish mining), and a hard fork that fairly rewards miners for blocks that don’t make it into the main chain (orphaned blocks).

Created by the Monero Research Lab, the soft fork cuts rewards for miners who delay sharing blocks, while the hard fork ensures miners get paid fairly for their work.

Why it matters: While this change needs community approval and won’t have an immediate effect, it could help keep mining decentralized and improve network security over time. (Source)

3. Privacy Leak Patch (August 26, 2025)

What it is: This important fix addresses a vulnerability that could reveal transaction details when users connect to malicious remote nodes.

The patch stops these nodes from deanonymizing users by exploiting wallet interactions, enforcing stricter privacy rules on all connections.

Why it matters: This update closes a potential privacy gap, reinforcing Monero’s status as one of the most secure privacy-focused cryptocurrencies. (Source)

Conclusion

Monero’s latest updates focus on two main goals: strengthening privacy protections and reducing risks from mining centralization. The Fluorine Fermi update directly improves user anonymity, while the Publish or Perish proposal tackles broader threats to the network’s fairness and security.

Key question: Will these upgrades effectively reduce Monero’s exposure to mining attacks while keeping the network decentralized and secure?