Why did the price of HBAR fall?

Hedera (HBAR) dropped 3.27% in the last 24 hours. This decline was mainly due to large investors selling off, technical price weaknesses, and delays in ETF approvals caused by a U.S. government shutdown.

1. Big Investors Selling Off – Large holders sold significant amounts, causing panic among smaller investors.
2. Price Support Broken – HBAR fell below a key price level of $0.224, increasing the risk of further declines.
3. ETF Approval Delays – The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) slowed down ETF approvals because of the government shutdown, affecting HBAR-related ETFs.

Deep Dive

1. Large Investors Selling (Negative Impact)

Between October 2 and 3, HBAR’s price dropped 3.6% as big investors sold off their holdings. Trading volume spiked to 51.3 million HBAR, with a large sell-off happening in just 10 minutes, which caused smaller investors to panic and sell as well (TokenPost).
What this means: When big investors sell a lot, it often signals they don’t expect the price to rise soon. The high trading volume compared to the total market size shows increased selling pressure.

2. Key Price Level Broken (Negative Impact)

HBAR’s price fell below an important support level at $0.224, which now acts as resistance, and tested $0.22 — the lowest price since early October. The short-term and medium-term moving averages (7-day and 30-day) are both trending down, confirming a negative price trend.
What this means: Buyers are hesitant to step in around $0.23–$0.224, weakening confidence. Technical indicators like RSI (41.81) show the price isn’t yet oversold, and MACD’s small positive reading isn’t strong enough to suggest a price rebound.

3. ETF Delays and Broader Risks (Mixed Impact)

More than 24 cryptocurrency ETF applications, including those involving HBAR, are delayed because the SEC is operating with limited staff during the U.S. government shutdown (The Block).
What this means: While HBAR’s partnerships with companies like Google and IBM support its long-term growth, the delay in ETF approvals slows down potential short-term price boosts. This regulatory uncertainty has added to the recent selling pressure.

Conclusion

HBAR’s recent price drop is due to a combination of large investors taking profits, technical price weaknesses, and delays in regulatory approvals. Despite these challenges, the network’s strong fundamentals—like enterprise adoption and low transaction fees—remain solid. The short-term outlook depends on whether HBAR can hold above the $0.224 resistance level.

Key point to watch: Will HBAR stay above the $0.215 Fibonacci support level, or will ongoing SEC delays push the price lower as the November ETF decision approaches?

What could affect the price of HBAR?

Hedera’s price is balancing between growing business use and uncertainty around upcoming ETF decisions.

1. ETF Approvals (Nov 2025) – There’s a 90% chance that spot HBAR ETFs will be approved, which could bring in more big investors.
2. Enterprise Partnerships – Collaborations with companies like Google, IBM, and SWIFT are increasing Hedera’s real-world usefulness.
3. Technical Resistance – Hedera’s price keeps struggling to rise above $0.23–$0.24, showing some short-term downward pressure.

Deep Dive

1. ETF Catalyst & Regulatory Risks (Mixed Impact)

Overview:
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is reviewing applications for spot HBAR ETFs from Grayscale and Canary Capital, with a decision expected by November 11, 2025. Experts believe there’s about a 90% chance these ETFs will be approved, based on recent approvals for Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. However, a U.S. government shutdown since October 2 could delay this decision, adding some uncertainty.

What this means:
If approved, it would confirm that HBAR is not considered a security under U.S. law, which is good news for investors and could attract large institutional money—similar to what happened with Bitcoin’s ETF approval in 2024. On the other hand, delays or a rejection might cause short-term price drops, especially since HBAR has already fallen about 9% over the past 60 days.

2. Enterprise Adoption & Network Utility (Bullish Impact)

Overview:
Hedera’s network is being used more by big companies and governments:

• SWIFT Partnership: Testing cross-border payments with Citigroup and Germany’s Bundesbank.
• Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) Trials: Supporting Australia’s Project Acacia and Wyoming’s FRNT stablecoin.
• AI Projects: Working with NVIDIA and Accenture to create trustworthy AI data records.

Daily transactions on Hedera have increased by 25.8% compared to last quarter, and the total value of stablecoins on Hedera has jumped 91.7% (Messari).

What this means:
These real-world uses make Hedera more valuable. More transactions mean more demand for HBAR tokens, which are needed to pay fees on the network, potentially driving the price up.

3. Technical Resistance & Whale Activity (Bearish Impact)

Overview:
HBAR’s price has struggled to rise above $0.23–$0.24 since early October. Recently, the price dropped 3.6% between October 2 and 3, with increased selling from large investors (“whales”). Technical indicators like RSI (43.79) and MACD (-0.0036) suggest the price momentum is neutral to slightly negative.

What this means:
Until HBAR breaks clearly above $0.24, sellers have the upper hand. If the price falls below $0.215, it might test support at $0.205, which is an important technical level.

Conclusion

HBAR’s future depends on the November ETF decision and continued growth in business use. If the ETF gets approved, HBAR could rise to $0.30–$0.40. But if technical weakness continues, the price might drop toward $0.20. Keep an eye on the $0.23–$0.24 range—breaking above this could signal renewed confidence from big investors.

Will Hedera’s growing business partnerships outweigh short-term ETF uncertainty?

What are people saying about HBAR?

Hedera’s HBAR price is moving between excitement over potential ETFs and concerns about being overbought, with traders focusing on the $0.30 mark next. Here’s what’s happening:

1. ETF filings spark bold $5 price predictions
2. Price breaks above $0.263, boosting bullish momentum
3. Robinhood listing leads to a 12% surge driven by retail investors
4. On-chain data signals the coin might be overbought

Deep Dive

1. CoinMarketCap Community: Grayscale ETF Buzz Sparks $5 Speculation – Bullish

"HBAR price is expected to reach $5 due to ETF anticipation and growing institutional interest," following Grayscale’s trust filing.
– CoinMarketCap Community · August 13, 2025
View original post
What this means: This is positive news for HBAR because if an ETF gets approved, it could lead to more institutional investment similar to what happened with Bitcoin. However, the $5 price target is still speculative since the SEC hasn’t given clear approval yet.

2. @johnmorganFL: Robinhood Listing Sparks 12% Price Jump – Bullish

"Hedera jumps 8% after Robinhood listing – Could $0.39 be next for HBAR?"
– @johnmorganFL · July 26, 2025
View original post
What this means: This is good news because Robinhood’s platform, with over 20 million users, makes it easier for everyday investors to buy HBAR. Still, for the price to keep rising, it needs to stay above the $0.26 support level.

3. CoinMarketCap Community: Technical Breakout Targets $0.30 – Bullish

"HBAR broke above the $0.263 resistance with a 9% jump… aiming for $0.3274 if momentum continues."
– CoinMarketCap Community · July 18, 2025
View original post
What this means: This short-term price move is positive, but the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 85 suggests the coin might be overbought, so some investors may take profits near $0.275.

4. TokenPost: Long/Short Ratio Hits 30-Day Low – Bearish

"HBAR’s long/short ratio dropped to 0.76 with sentiment at -0.62, indicating trader caution."
– TokenPost · September 14, 2025
View original post
What this means: This is a warning sign as traders using leverage are betting on a price drop. However, buyers at the $0.217 support level could help stabilize the price.

Conclusion

The outlook for HBAR is mixed. Optimism from potential ETFs and increased access through Robinhood is balanced by technical signals that suggest the price might be stretched. The key level to watch is $0.263—if HBAR stays above this, it could confirm a bullish trend. If it falls below, we might see some profit-taking pushing the price toward $0.23.

What is the latest news about HBAR?

HBAR is caught between excitement over ETFs and institutional selling. Here’s the latest update:

1. ETF Interest Grows (October 3, 2025) – 21 crypto ETFs, including ones focused on HBAR, were filed amid delays at the SEC due to government funding issues.
2. Price Drops as Institutions Sell (October 3, 2025) – HBAR’s price fell 3.6% as big investors sold near important price levels.
3. Partnership with SWIFT and Citi Confirmed (October 2, 2025) – Hedera is working with SWIFT and major banks on blockchain projects for cross-border payments.

In-Depth Look

1. ETF Interest Grows (October 3, 2025)

What happened: Two fund managers, REX Shares and Osprey Funds, filed paperwork for 21 new crypto ETFs, including some focused on HBAR. This came after the SEC made it easier to approve ETFs. However, a U.S. government shutdown has paused SEC reviews, so approvals are delayed until funding is restored.
Why it matters: If approved, these ETFs could bring more big investors to HBAR, which is good news long-term. But the current delay creates uncertainty in the short term. (The Block)

2. Price Drops as Institutions Sell (October 3, 2025)

What happened: HBAR’s price dropped 3.6% to about 22 cents, with trading volume spiking over 3 million tokens. This suggests large investors are selling. The price broke below a key support level at 22.4 cents, with 22 cents now the next important level to watch.
Why it matters: This is a negative sign in the short term because sellers are in control. However, the coin might bounce back if it holds above 21 cents, especially with important ETF decisions expected in November. (CoinDesk)

3. Partnership with SWIFT and Citi Confirmed (October 2, 2025)

What happened: Hedera joined forces with SWIFT, Citigroup, and Germany’s Bundesbank to test blockchain technology for faster and more efficient cross-border payments. Hedera’s technology is known for being secure and enterprise-ready.
Why it matters: This partnership strengthens HBAR’s real-world use case and shows growing institutional interest in its technology. (TokenPost)

Conclusion

HBAR is balancing between short-term price pressure and promising institutional partnerships. The key levels to watch are around 22 cents for price support and the resumption of SEC funding for ETF approvals. These factors will likely guide HBAR’s next move.

What is expected in the development of HBAR?

Hedera is making progress with several key developments:

1. HashSphere Launch (Q3 2025) – A private blockchain designed for stablecoin payments and meeting enterprise compliance needs.
2. Quantum-Resistant Hardware (2025) – Partnering with SEALSQ to build advanced security hardware that protects against future cyber threats.
3. AI Studio Expansion (Ongoing) – Growing tools that help developers create AI applications on Hedera’s platform.

Deep Dive

1. HashSphere Launch (Q3 2025)

Overview:
HashSphere is a private blockchain powered by Hedera, created to simplify regulated stablecoin transactions and the tokenization of assets for institutions. It’s built with compliance in mind, offering real-time transaction settlements and clear audit trails (Hedera Partnership Update).

What this means:
This is a positive development for HBAR because it focuses on industries like finance and real estate, which could lead to more transactions and greater use by large organizations. However, there could be delays as companies navigate regulatory requirements.

2. Quantum-Resistant Hardware (2025)

Overview:
SEALSQ’s QS7001 chips include quantum-resistant digital signatures designed to protect Hedera’s network from future cyberattacks. These chips meet U.S. government security standards (CNSA Suite) (Bitrue Analysis).

What this means:
This is somewhat positive for HBAR because it strengthens long-term security, though it might not immediately affect the price. The impact depends on how quickly quantum computing advances and when companies upgrade their systems.

3. AI Studio Expansion (Ongoing)

Overview:
Hedera’s AI Studio, launched in June 2025, provides developers with tools to build AI-powered applications that work with Hedera’s consensus and token services. Recent improvements include integration with LangChain for natural language processing and expanding use cases in decentralized finance (DeFi) and governance (Hedera AI Studio).

What this means:
This is good news for HBAR because it makes it easier for developers, especially those from traditional tech backgrounds, to create AI-driven decentralized apps. Still, competition from platforms like Ethereum and Solana could limit how much traction Hedera gains.

Conclusion

Hedera’s plan balances immediate enterprise-focused solutions like HashSphere with forward-looking projects in quantum security and AI. These efforts align well with institutional needs, but success will depend on how well they execute amid market uncertainties. One key question remains: how will Hedera’s focus on regulated industries affect its goal of decentralization?

What updates are there in the HBAR code base?

Hedera’s latest updates focus on making the network more decentralized, improving tools for developers, and boosting overall efficiency.

1. Open-Source Transition (July 22, 2025) – Hedera handed over its codebase to the Linux Foundation, allowing the community to help govern and improve the network.
2. CLI Launch (June 25, 2025) – A new command-line tool makes it easier for developers to deploy and automate tasks.
3. Mainnet Upgrades (June 23, 2025) – Network improvements include daily rewards for nodes and better account management.

Deep Dive

1. Open-Source Transition (July 22, 2025)

Overview: Hedera moved its codebase to the Linux Foundation’s decentralized project called Project Hiero. This means anyone can review, suggest changes, or help improve the network through Hedera Improvement Proposals (HIPs).

What this means: This is a positive step for Hedera (HBAR) because it spreads control across the community, which fits with the idea of Web3—an internet owned and operated by its users. More transparency can attract developers and businesses to build on Hedera. (Source)

2. CLI Launch (June 25, 2025)

Overview: The new Hedera Command Line Interface (CLI) helps developers automate tasks like setting up test environments and deploying smart contracts, cutting down on manual work.

What this means: While this might not immediately impact HBAR’s value, it’s a good sign for the future. Easier tools encourage more developers to create decentralized apps (dApps), which can increase network use over time. (Source)

3. Mainnet Upgrades (June 23, 2025)

Overview: Updates v0.60 and v0.61 introduced two key improvements: HIP-1064, which gives daily rewards to node operators, and HIP-1021, which fixes issues with automatic account renewals.

What this means: These upgrades are good news for HBAR. Daily rewards encourage node operators to keep the network running smoothly, improving security. Fixing account renewal problems makes the network easier to use. (Source)

Conclusion

Hedera’s recent updates highlight a commitment to decentralization, better tools for developers, and a more reliable network. These changes support enterprise adoption and build trust within the community. The big question: Will this increased transparency and community involvement attract more institutional interest in late 2025?