What could affect the price of XLM?

Stellar’s price is balancing between upcoming technology upgrades and how the market feels about it.

1. Protocol 23 Upgrade – A big boost in speed and capacity could help Stellar grow in decentralized finance (DeFi) and real-world asset tokenization by Q3 2025.
2. Institutional Interest – Big investors are showing interest, with $300 million in open contracts and Stellar making up 0.33% of the Hashdex Nasdaq Crypto Index ETF.
3. Key Price Level – The $0.40 to $0.42 price range is crucial for Stellar to keep moving up.

Deep Dive

1. Protocol 23 Upgrade (Positive Outlook)

What’s happening: Stellar’s upcoming Protocol 23 upgrade, expected in the third quarter of 2025, will allow it to run multiple smart contracts at the same time and handle up to 5,000 transactions per second. This makes Stellar more competitive in DeFi and in tokenizing real-world assets (RWAs), with $515 million already tokenized on its network (CoinDesk).
Why it matters: These improvements could attract more developers and big companies to use Stellar, which has historically led to price increases (like a 500% jump in 2024). But if adoption is slow or technical issues arise, price gains might be limited.

2. Institutional Accumulation (Mixed Signals)

What’s happening: Interest from big investors is growing, with open contracts for Stellar derivatives topping $300 million as of October 2025. Also, Stellar makes up 0.33% of the Hashdex Nasdaq Crypto Index ETF, which could bring steady investment (CoinJar).
Why it matters: Buying activity around $0.38 to $0.39 shows accumulation, but high leverage means there’s a risk of forced selling if Bitcoin’s dominance rises above 58%.

3. Technical Resistance Zone (Watch Closely)

What’s happening: Stellar’s price has struggled to break through the $0.40 to $0.42 range, testing it four times since June 2025. Technical indicators like the 4-hour RSI at 51.1 and a slightly positive MACD histogram (+0.0018) suggest uncertainty (TokenPost).
Why it matters: If Stellar breaks above $0.42, it could rally 25% toward $0.50. But if it fails, the price might drop back to support levels around $0.35 to $0.36.

Conclusion

Stellar’s price will depend on how well the Protocol 23 upgrade is adopted and whether institutional investments continue, all while the overall crypto market sentiment remains neutral (fear-greed index at 55). Keep an eye on the $0.40 to $0.42 price zone: Will new investments and asset growth push through resistance, or will sellers take profits and pull the price down?

What are people saying about XLM?

The Stellar community is divided between optimism and caution as the Protocol 23 upgrade approaches. Here’s what’s making headlines:

1. Buzz around a $0.50 price target as chart patterns tighten
2. Debates about scalability sparked by the upcoming Protocol 23 upgrade
3. Speculation fueled by Stellar’s price moves correlating with XRP after Ripple’s lawsuit updates

Deep Dive

1. @StellarOrg: Mixed Feelings About Mainnet Upgrade

"Will Protocol 23 push #XLM higher or cause a drop?"
– CoinMarketCap Community (Aug 19, 2025)
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What this means: The Protocol 23 upgrade, expected in Q3 2025, aims to improve Stellar’s transaction speed and security. However, traders are split on whether this upgrade will lead to a lasting price increase or if investors will sell after the news, causing a dip.

2. @johnmorganFL: Technical Analysis Shows Uncertainty

"XLM hit resistance at $0.42 and risks falling below $0.40 support"
– @johnmorganFL (Aug 13, 2025)
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What this means: If Stellar’s price falls below $0.40, it could drop another 5-8% down to around $0.38. On the other hand, if it bounces back above $0.42, it might confirm a bullish pattern that could push the price up to between $0.47 and $0.50.

3. @thebu11runner: Positive Outlook from ETF Inclusion Talks

"XLM is part of 3 SEC ETF proposals, with quick approval possible"
– @thebu11runner (Sep 3, 2025)
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What this means: Stellar’s focus on regulatory compliance and its design make it a strong candidate for inclusion in exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Galaxy Digital has identified XLM as one of 12 tokens likely to get ETF approval in 2025, which could boost demand.

Conclusion

The outlook for Stellar is mixed. On one side, there’s uncertainty around the $0.40 price level, while on the other, positive factors like the Protocol 23 upgrade and potential ETF approvals offer hope. Keep an eye on the $0.38 to $0.42 price range this week — a clear move above or below could set the tone for Stellar’s price through October. While Stellar’s real-world use in payments is strong, it’s still behind XRP, which has seen a 495% gain this year. The charts will likely tell the story first.

What is the latest news about XLM?

Stellar is gaining momentum from institutional interest and new ETF approvals, while also focusing on improving global payment systems.

1. Growing Institutional Interest (Oct 8, 2025) – Open interest in Stellar derivatives surpasses $300 million as traders anticipate integration with Fedwire and SWIFT payment networks.
2. ETF Approval Expands Access (Oct 7, 2025) – The SEC approves the Hashdex ETF, which includes 0.33% allocation to Stellar (XLM), increasing exposure to institutional investors.
3. Technical Signs Point to Strength (Oct 8, 2025) – Stellar holds strong support at $0.38 with a surge in trading volume, indicating potential for price gains.

In-Depth Look

1. Institutional Interest Builds (October 8, 2025)

Summary
On October 8, Stellar’s price rose by 3% during the day, with open interest in derivatives reaching $300 million—a record high for 2025. Experts link this to Stellar’s compliance with ISO 20022, a global messaging standard that aligns with upcoming upgrades to Fedwire and SWIFT payment systems. This could make Stellar a key asset for connecting traditional financial networks.

What This Means
This development is positive for Stellar because ISO 20022 compatibility allows it to work smoothly with upgraded banking systems, potentially boosting its use in international payments. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) over the past week is at 64, indicating the asset might be somewhat overbought, so caution is advised near the $0.40 price level. (CoinDesk)

2. ETF Approval Brings New Investors (October 7, 2025)

Summary
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved the Hashdex Nasdaq Crypto Index ETF, which includes a small 0.33% allocation to Stellar (XLM). This ETF also holds major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin (72.21%) and Ethereum (14.58%).

What This Means
This is a cautiously optimistic sign for Stellar’s long-term prospects. While the small allocation limits immediate impact, ETF inclusion can encourage steady demand from institutional investors. Additionally, the presence of XRP with a 6.87% share in the ETF shows progress in regulatory acceptance of payment-focused cryptocurrencies, which could indirectly benefit Stellar. (CoinJar)

3. Technical Analysis Shows Strength (October 8, 2025)

Summary
Stellar’s price has been steady between $0.38 and $0.39, with trading volumes doubling to 52 million during price dips. This suggests that large investors are accumulating XLM. The $0.38 price level is acting as a strong support, last tested successfully in September 2025.

What This Means
This is a positive technical signal because high-volume support tests often lead to price breakouts. If Stellar’s price can hold above $0.40, it may rise toward $0.45, representing a potential 16% gain. However, the asset’s 30-day price volatility of 28% means price swings could be unpredictable. (TokenPost)

Conclusion

Stellar is benefiting from a combination of growing institutional interest, regulatory approvals, and strong technical indicators. As global payment systems like SWIFT upgrade and ETFs bring in new investors, Stellar’s $12 billion market cap might not fully reflect its potential as a compliant and efficient settlement platform.

What is expected in the development of XLM?

Stellar’s roadmap is centered on expanding decentralized finance (DeFi), boosting business use, and improving smart contract features.

1. Protocol 24 (Privacy & ZK) (2026) – Introducing advanced privacy tools for businesses.
2. Freighter Wallet Upgrades (Q4 2025) – Enhanced security and easy-to-use wallets.
3. Enterprise Payment Flows (Q4 2025) – On-chain tools for business payments and finance.
4. $1.5B DeFi TVL Goal (2026) – Aiming to be among the top 10 blockchain platforms for DeFi.

Deep Dive

1. Protocol 24 (Privacy & ZK) (2026)

Overview:
Stellar plans to add zero-knowledge proofs (ZK) and privacy upgrades after Protocol 23. These features will help businesses make confidential transactions and follow regulations more easily. Stellar is working with partners like Nethermind and Zama to create secure cross-chain connections and privacy layers (CoinDesk).

What this means:
This is a positive sign for Stellar (XLM), positioning it as a leader in privacy-focused blockchain solutions for regulated industries. However, development could take longer than expected, and competition from other blockchains like Monero or Ethereum’s privacy updates is a factor.

2. Freighter Wallet Upgrades (Q4 2025)

Overview:
By the end of 2025, Stellar’s Freighter wallet will get new security features such as social login options, single-use wallets for businesses, and support for hardware wallets (The Defiant).

What this means:
These upgrades could make it easier for new users to start using Stellar, which is good for adoption. Success depends on how smooth the user experience is and how it compares to popular wallets like MetaMask.

3. Enterprise Payment Flows (Q4 2025)

Overview:
Stellar is developing on-chain payroll, invoicing, and treasury management tools for businesses using Soroban smart contracts. This builds on existing real-world asset (RWA) activity, which currently totals $522 million on-chain, and partnerships with firms like Franklin Templeton (NewsBTC).

What this means:
If businesses start using these tools widely, it could increase demand for Stellar’s network. Key indicators to watch include stablecoin transaction volumes and growth in real-world assets on the platform.

4. $1.5B DeFi TVL Goal (2026)

Overview:
Stellar aims to reach $1.5 billion in total value locked (TVL) in DeFi by 2026, targeting a spot in the top 10 blockchain platforms. This goal leverages Protocol 23’s ability to handle 5,000 transactions per second and a $100 million fund to support developers. Currently, TVL is around $150 million, driven by projects like Blend and Soroban-based decentralized apps (CoinMarketCap).

What this means:
This is an ambitious goal with significant risks. Stellar will need to attract more developers and users faster than competitors like Solana and Avalanche.

Conclusion

Stellar is evolving from a payment-focused blockchain into a major player in DeFi and enterprise solutions. Protocol 24’s privacy upgrades and Soroban’s smart contract scalability are key to this shift. While there are risks in delivering these technical improvements, the focus on regulated real-world assets and business tools could create steady demand. The big question remains: Will Protocol 24’s privacy features successfully navigate regulatory challenges?

What updates are there in the XLM code base?

Stellar’s latest software updates focus on improving scalability with Protocol 23 and enhancing developer tools.

1. Protocol 23 Upgrade (Q3 2025) – Enables processing multiple transactions at the same time and speeds up smart contracts.
2. Java SDK Overhaul (Oct 2025) – Adds features like message signing, support for muxed accounts, and compatibility with Protocol 23.
3. JS SDK Updates (Oct 2025) – Makes contract interactions easier and improves real-time event tracking.

Deep Dive

1. Protocol 23 Upgrade (Q3 2025)

Overview:
Protocol 23 allows Stellar to handle transactions in parallel, aiming for 5,000 transactions per second and confirming transactions in about 2.5 seconds. This is important for businesses using Stellar for things like tokenizing assets and sending money across borders.

Details:

• Scalability: Improves how Soroban smart contracts run by allowing multiple processes at once and compiling code ahead of time for speed.
• Security: Adds built-in support for Ed25519 message signing and verification, reducing reliance on external tools.
• Compatibility: Introduces changes that require all network nodes to update their software by the mainnet launch in Q3 2025.

What this means:
This upgrade is positive for Stellar (XLM) because faster and cheaper transactions can attract more business use cases, such as stablecoin payments and tokenizing real-world assets. (Source)

2. Java SDK Overhaul (Oct 2025)

Overview:
The new Java SDK version 2.0.0-beta0 adds tools to support multi-signature transactions and prepares developers for Protocol 23.

Details:

• New Features: Includes a pollTransaction method for automatic retries, support for muxed account encoding/decoding, and validation for liquidity pool IDs.
• Breaking Changes: Some older methods like StrKey.encodeEd25519PublicKey are removed, so developers need to update their code.
• Security: Improved checks on secret keys and public keys to prevent errors or security issues.

What this means:
This update is neutral for XLM in the short term as developers adjust, but it strengthens the overall ecosystem for the future. (Source)

3. JS SDK Updates (Oct 2025)

Overview:
The JavaScript SDK now supports unified endpoints for real-time contract data and transaction diagnostics.

Details:

• Developer Tools: The new ContractClient.deploy() method makes deploying contracts from WASM hashes easier.
• Event Handling: The getEvents method now uses a cursor for pagination instead of the older pagingToken.
• Compatibility: Support for Node.js version 16 is dropped; Node.js 18 or higher is required.

What this means:
This is good news for Stellar (XLM) because smoother developer tools can speed up the growth of decentralized finance (DeFi) and real-world asset projects on the platform. (Source)

Conclusion

Stellar’s Protocol 23 upgrade and SDK improvements show a clear focus on scaling for enterprise use and making development easier. With big names like Visa and PayPal already using Stellar’s network, these updates could help XLM become a key player in compliant asset tokenization. The big question remains: how will Stellar maintain decentralization while meeting the needs of large institutions as its usage grows?

Why did the price of XLM fall?

Stellar (XLM) dropped 1.67% over the past 24 hours, falling to $0.38. This decline was sharper than the overall crypto market, which fell by 0.68%. The main reasons include challenges holding key price levels, a slowdown in big investors’ activity, and some profit-taking after recent gains.

1. Price Struggles at Key Resistance – Could not stay above $0.39
2. Big Investors Taking Profits – Open interest fell 6.6% despite over $300 million inflows recently
3. Shift to Safer Assets – Bitcoin’s market share rose to 58.42%, putting pressure on other coins

Deep Dive

1. Price Resistance Challenges (Short-Term Bearish)

What happened: Stellar’s price hit resistance around $0.39 but couldn’t hold. It faced rejection near the 7-day moving average ($0.3981) and a key Fibonacci retracement level at $0.38827. Indicators like the RSI (Relative Strength Index) at 49.8 and the MACD histogram narrowing suggest weakening momentum.

What this means: Traders are cautious and selling near these resistance points, worried the price might test lower support around $0.372. The $0.386 level is now acting as immediate resistance—if the price closes above this, it could signal a positive shift.

2. Institutional Activity Slows (Mixed Signals)

What happened: Despite excitement around Stellar’s compliance with ISO 20022 (a global financial messaging standard) and inclusion in ETFs, data shows open interest in derivatives dropped 6.6% to $294 million. This suggests some investors took profits after a 3% price rally on October 6-7.

What this means: While there was strong buying around $0.38 (noted by a volume spike of 52 million on October 8), the follow-up buying has slowed. The $0.38 to $0.39 price range is now a tug-of-war between sellers locking in gains and buyers looking for opportunities.

3. Broader Altcoin Weakness (Bearish)

What happened: The Altcoin Season Index, which measures how well alternative cryptocurrencies are doing compared to Bitcoin, dropped 7.84% in 24 hours. Bitcoin’s dominance increased to 58.42%, and Stellar’s price movement became more closely tied to Bitcoin (correlation of 0.89). Since Bitcoin fell by 0.68%, this amplified losses for Stellar.

What this means: Factors like rising U.S. Treasury yields and gold’s price rally above $4,000 have drawn investment away from cryptocurrencies. Until Bitcoin stabilizes above $123,000, altcoins like Stellar may continue to face downward pressure.

Conclusion

Stellar’s recent price drop is mainly due to technical profit-taking, a rotation away from altcoins, and reduced activity from big investors. However, its strong institutional support around $0.38 and its role in the ISO 20022 standard help limit deeper losses.

What to watch: Can Stellar hold above the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at $0.3803 during the U.S. trading session on October 9? Falling below this could lead to a slide toward $0.372, while breaking above $0.386 might spark renewed buying interest.