Why did the price of XRP fall?
XRP dropped 2.5% in the last 24 hours, underperforming the overall crypto market, which fell by 0.55%. The main reasons are:
- ETF Approval Delays – The SEC pushed back decisions on XRP ETFs to November, dampening hopes among institutional investors.
- Whale Selling Pressure – Large holders sold about 40 million XRP (worth $120 million) within a day.
- Technical Resistance – XRP couldn’t stay above the $3.07 level, which is an important technical barrier.
In-Depth Analysis
1. Regulatory Delays (Negative Impact)
What happened:
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) postponed decisions on several XRP ETF applications, including those from Franklin Templeton and Grayscale, until November 14, 2025 (MEXC News). This is a setback after earlier optimism that approvals might come in October, following Ripple’s recent legal victories.
Why it matters:
Institutional investors are likely holding back or reducing their XRP positions until there’s more clarity on regulations. Since about 90% of XRP’s gains this year were driven by hopes for ETF approval, these delays create uncertainty and pressure on the price.
What to watch:
Keep an eye on the SEC’s November 14 deadline and any news about the Rex-Osprey XRP ETF, which is scheduled to launch on September 18.
2. Whale Profit-Taking (Negative Impact)
What happened:
Large XRP holders, often called “whales,” sold around 40 million XRP (approximately $120 million) in a single day, mainly through major exchanges like Binance and Coinbase (Bit2Me). This comes after a strong 31% price increase over the past three months.
Why it matters:
These big sellers likely cashed in profits after XRP failed to break above $3.18, its high on September 12. Despite more XRP being held on exchanges (+2.1 billion since August), this selling suggests weaker demand in the short term.
3. Technical Resistance (Mixed Impact)
What happened:
XRP hit resistance at $3.07, which corresponds to a key technical level called the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement from its July 2025 peak of $3.66. Additionally, the MACD indicator—a tool traders use to gauge momentum—turned negative, signaling bearish pressure.
Why it matters:
Traders are paying close attention to these technical levels. If XRP falls below $3.00, a key psychological support, it could trigger more selling. However, the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at $2.96 might provide some support and limit further declines.
Summary
XRP’s recent decline is mainly due to regulatory uncertainty and profit-taking after a strong rally, along with unsuccessful attempts to break key technical resistance. The price range between $2.94 and $3.07 is now a critical zone where buyers and sellers are battling.
Key point to watch: Can XRP hold above $2.94 (the 50-day SMA) before the Rex-Osprey ETF launch on September 18? If it falls below this level, XRP might test support around $2.80.
What could affect the price of XRP?
XRP’s price depends largely on ETF approvals, big investor moves, and clearer regulations.
- ETF Approval Timeline (Mid-Oct 2025) – Could bring in $8 billion if approved.
- Whale Activity – Big holders are at record levels, but recent selling raises questions.
- Regulatory Risks – Ongoing court cases and changing rules worldwide create uncertainty.
In-Depth Look
1. ETF Approval & Institutional Interest (Positive Outlook)
What’s Happening:
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is expected to decide on XRP spot ETFs by mid to late October 2025. Analysts at Bloomberg estimate a 90–95% chance of approval (Bloomberg). If approved, this could bring over $8 billion in new investments, similar to what happened with Bitcoin ETFs. Meanwhile, Rex-Osprey’s XRP ETF, which uses a RIC (Registered Investment Company) structure, is launching on September 18. This ETF avoids SEC delays but may have tax disadvantages (Bit2Me).
Why It Matters:
ETF approval would confirm XRP’s regulatory status and attract large institutional investors, likely pushing prices above the $3.20 resistance level. However, ETFs structured as RICs might see less demand because of tax inefficiencies.
2. Whale Activity & Market Sentiment (Mixed Signals)
What’s Happening:
“Whales” — investors holding 1 million or more XRP — hit a record 2,743 addresses in July 2025, controlling about 47.32 billion XRP (Santiment). However, in the last 24 hours, whales sold 40 million XRP (worth about $120 million), suggesting some profit-taking near the $3.03 price point (Ali Martinez).
Why It Matters:
Long-term accumulation by whales shows confidence in XRP’s future, but recent selling could put downward pressure on prices. Technical indicators like the RSI (Relative Strength Index) at 60.63 and the MACD histogram at +0.037 suggest a neutral to slightly bullish momentum, but the $3 resistance level remains a key hurdle.
3. Regulatory and Global Risks (Potential Challenges)
What’s Happening:
The SEC vs. Ripple lawsuit settled in August 2025, with XRP ruled not to be a security for retail investors. However, appeals related to institutional sales restrictions are still ongoing. Meanwhile, Hong Kong is proposing more relaxed crypto banking rules, which could encourage adoption in Asia. On the other hand, the U.S. Genius Act threatens to limit stablecoin yields, which could impact XRP’s utility (MEXC).
Why It Matters:
Legal uncertainties in the U.S. may hold back institutional investment, but positive regulatory changes in other regions like Hong Kong could help balance the risks.
Conclusion
XRP’s future price depends on ETF approvals (which are bullish), whale investor behavior (neutral), and regulatory developments (mixed). Breaking above $3.20 could open the door to $3.60–$4, but delays from the SEC or large sell-offs by whales might cause setbacks. Will the October ETF decision finally bring XRP in line with Bitcoin’s path to institutional adoption?
What are people saying about XRP?
The XRP community is caught between hope for a price surge and concerns about a possible pullback. Here’s what’s making headlines:
- Excitement over ETFs meets warnings of weakening momentum
- Nasdaq launches XRP Futures ETF, boosting institutional interest
- $3.30 price level is a critical point for XRP’s next move
Deep Dive
1. @johnmorganFL: XRP ETF Momentum vs. Bearish Divergence 🐻
"XRP could hit $5.81 in 2025 if ETF approvals drive institutional demand, but weekly RSI shows signs of slowing momentum."
– @johnmorganFL (1.2M followers · 12M impressions · 2025-07-24 05:03 UTC)
View original post
What this means: There are mixed signals. Optimism about ETFs is tempered by technical indicators suggesting the rally might lose steam. If XRP closes below $2.75 on a weekly basis, the bullish outlook could be invalidated.
2. @cookiedotfun: Nasdaq XRP Futures ETF Goes Live 🚀
"XRP tops social sentiment charts after Nasdaq launches the first XRP Futures ETF – opening the door for institutional investors."
– @cookiedotfun (890K followers · 8.3M impressions · 2025-05-23 12:27 UTC)
View original post
What this means: This is positive for XRP’s liquidity because regulated ETFs reduce regulatory uncertainty. The trading volume of these ETFs will reveal how much institutional investors are interested.
3. @cryptoWZRD_: $3.30 – The Line in the Sand 📉
"XRP is struggling to break through the $3.30 resistance level; if it fails, it might drop back to $2.90 support. Day traders are benefiting from the volatility more than long-term holders."
– @cryptoWZRD (320K followers · 2.1M impressions · 2025-09-05 02:36 UTC)
[View original post](https://x.com/cryptoWZRD/status/1963793267696230630)
What this means: Short-term outlook is bearish. The price action suggests sellers are taking control. However, a strong move above $3.30 could trigger a buying frenzy driven by fear of missing out (FOMO).
Conclusion
Opinions on XRP are divided. On one hand, the launch of the Nasdaq XRP Futures ETF and Ripple’s RLUSD stablecoin reaching a $500 million market cap are fueling optimism. On the other hand, technical indicators show weakening momentum, and Bitcoin’s dominance at 57.02% limits XRP’s upside potential. Keep an eye on the $3.30 resistance level—a sustained break above it could confirm bullish targets, while failure to do so might signal a broader correction across alternative cryptocurrencies.
What is the latest news about XRP?
XRP is currently influenced by excitement around upcoming ETFs and moves by big investors. Here’s a quick summary of the latest news:
- Rex-Osprey XRP ETF Launch (September 18, 2025) – The launch date was pushed back, but the ETF uses a faster regulatory structure, sparking debate about how it will affect XRP’s price.
- XRP Spot ETF Approval Window (October 18–25, 2025) – Analysts at Bloomberg say there’s a 90–95% chance the SEC will approve this ETF, which could bring in about $8 billion.
- Galaxy Digital Buys More XRP (September 13, 2025) – Galaxy Digital added $34.4 million worth of XRP to its holdings, showing strong confidence from institutional investors.
In-Depth Look
1. Rex-Osprey XRP ETF Launch (September 18, 2025)
What’s happening:
Rex-Osprey is launching ETFs for XRP and Dogecoin on September 18. These ETFs are set up as Registered Investment Companies (RICs), which means they can start trading faster than traditional Bitcoin or Ethereum ETFs. However, because of this structure, they might include derivatives (financial contracts based on XRP) rather than holding XRP directly.
Why it matters:
This launch is a mixed bag for XRP. The RIC structure speeds up access for investors but might reduce demand for XRP itself since the ETF may not hold the actual coin. Despite this, retail investors remain optimistic—XRP’s price rose 11% in September. Interestingly, some large holders (called whales) sold about 40 million XRP (worth $120 million) without causing a big price drop (Bit2Me).
2. XRP Spot ETF Approval Window (October 18–25, 2025)
What’s happening:
Bloomberg analysts expect the SEC to decide on XRP Spot ETFs between October 18 and 25. Companies like Grayscale and Franklin Templeton are waiting for approval. If the SEC says yes, it could bring in around $8 billion in new investments.
Why it matters:
Approval would be a big win for XRP, signaling regulatory acceptance and encouraging more institutional investors to join. However, the SEC recently delayed Franklin Templeton’s ETF decision until November 14, showing that some regulatory hurdles remain (Gate Square).
3. Galaxy Digital Buys More XRP (September 13, 2025)
What’s happening:
Galaxy Digital increased its XRP holdings by $34.4 million as part of its plan to grow its crypto assets. The company now holds $1.8 billion in Bitcoin and is expanding its XRP reserves.
Why it matters:
This move shows strong institutional confidence in XRP, even though some big holders have sold recently. Galaxy Digital’s trading desk and custody services make XRP a useful tool for traditional financial clients looking for liquidity (Gate.com).
Conclusion
XRP’s future depends largely on ETF approvals and growing interest from big investors. The Rex-Osprey ETF launch in September will test how the market reacts, while the SEC’s decisions in October could shape XRP’s regulatory future. Will delays slow things down, or will approvals spark a new price rally? Stay tuned.
What is expected in the development of XRP?
XRP’s roadmap is focused on growing its use by institutions, improving how it works with other blockchains, and increasing real-world applications.
- XRP Spot ETF Decisions (October 2025) – The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will decide on several XRP ETF proposals, which could open the door for more institutional investors.
- Ripple Swell Conference (November 4–5, 2025) – Ripple’s big annual event is expected to announce new partnerships and technology updates.
- Axelar EVM Sidechain Integration (Pending Approval) – This will improve XRP’s ability to connect with over 55 other blockchain networks.
Deep Dive
1. XRP Spot ETF Decisions (October 2025)
Overview: In October 2025, the SEC will make decisions on several XRP spot ETF applications from companies like Grayscale (October 18), 21Shares (October 19), and Bitwise (October 20) (source). If approved, these ETFs could increase XRP’s liquidity and attract more institutional investors, similar to what happened with Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs.
What this means: Approval would be a positive sign, helping XRP gain more legitimacy and making it easier for investors to buy. However, if the SEC delays or rejects these ETFs, XRP’s price could experience short-term ups and downs.
2. Ripple Swell Conference (November 4–5, 2025)
Overview: Ripple’s annual Swell conference is expected to highlight progress on partnerships with central banks for digital currencies (CBDCs), adoption of the RLUSD stablecoin, and improvements to XRP Ledger’s decentralized finance (DeFi) features. Previous Swell events have led to price increases, such as an 11% jump after the 2024 Apex conference.
What this means: This event could positively impact XRP by introducing new products and partnerships. However, there is a risk that excitement around announcements might lead to short-term selling after the event.
3. Axelar EVM Sidechain Integration (Pending Approval)
Overview: If approved by the community, Axelar will become the main bridge for XRP Ledger’s Ethereum-compatible sidechain, replacing the current XLS-38d bridge. This will allow XRP to interact smoothly with Ethereum and Cosmos blockchains, connecting over 55 networks (source).
What this means: This integration is good news for developers and could increase XRP’s liquidity across different blockchains. However, delays in voting or technical challenges could slow down the rollout.
Conclusion
XRP’s upcoming plans combine important regulatory decisions (like ETFs), technical improvements (such as EVM sidechains), and ecosystem growth (highlighted at the Swell Conference). With the altcoin season index currently at 71/100 (global metrics), these developments could strengthen XRP’s role in payments and decentralized finance. How will changing U.S. crypto regulations affect XRP’s adoption by institutions after the ETF decisions?
What updates are there in the XRP code base?
The latest updates to the XRP Ledger focus on improving network stability, adding flexibility for NFTs, and enhancing developer tools.
- Consensus Stability Fix (September 2025) – Rolled back to rippled v2.5.1 to fix issues causing network delays.
- Dynamic NFTs Live (June 2025) – Introduced NFTs that can change over time through a protocol update.
- Clio Server Upgrade (August 2025) – Improved API speed and reliability for developers.
Deep Dive
1. Consensus Stability Fix (September 2025)
Overview: The XRP Ledger team replaced the problematic rippled v2.6.0 with version 2.5.1. This change fixes issues that caused the network to stall during transaction processing. It also resolves memory leaks and software library conflicts while keeping compatibility with existing systems. Node operators need to update to avoid network problems.
What this means: This update is positive for XRP because it keeps transactions running smoothly and ensures validators (the network’s decision-makers) stay coordinated. This reliability is important for businesses using the network. (Source)
2. Dynamic NFTs Live (June 2025)
Overview: On June 11, 2025, the XRP Ledger activated the DynamicNFT feature. This allows NFTs (unique digital items) to have metadata that can be updated over time—think of gaming items that level up or digital art that changes.
This expands the XRP Ledger’s NFT capabilities beyond fixed, unchangeable assets and supports programmable features through smart contracts.
What this means: This is a big step forward for XRP, opening up new possibilities in decentralized finance (DeFi) and virtual worlds (metaverse). It positions the XRP Ledger as a strong alternative to Ethereum’s popular NFT standard, ERC-1155. (Source)
3. Clio Server Upgrade (August 2025)
Overview: The Clio server, which helps developers access XRP Ledger data, was upgraded to version 2.5.0. This update allows batch processing of data requests and reduces delays, making it easier for exchanges and analytics platforms to get information quickly. It also fixes issues with real-time data streaming via WebSocket connections.
What this means: While this update doesn’t directly impact XRP’s price or network, it’s important for developers. Faster and more reliable APIs reduce costs and improve the experience for users of wallets and decentralized apps (dApps). (Source)
Conclusion
The XRP Ledger is evolving to strengthen network stability, introduce innovative NFT features, and improve developer tools. These updates support XRPL’s growth in institutional DeFi and digital collectibles. The introduction of mutable NFTs could be a key factor in driving wider adoption of XRPL’s tokenization capabilities.