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Why did the price of XRP go up?

XRP increased by 0.64% in the last 24 hours, keeping pace with the overall cryptocurrency market, which rose 1.59%. However, XRP’s gains are smaller compared to its 7-day increase of 1.81% and a strong 90-day rally of 32.15%. Here are the main factors influencing this movement:

  1. ETF Approval Momentum (Positive Impact)
  2. Large Investor Activity & Derivatives Trading (Mixed Impact)
  3. Technical Chart Signals (Positive Impact)

Detailed Analysis

1. ETF Approval Momentum (Positive Impact)

What happened:
On September 29, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) made it easier to approve exchange-traded funds (ETFs) for alternative cryptocurrencies like XRP. Instead of reviewing each application individually, new rules allow automatic approval under certain conditions. Experts now believe the chance of an XRP ETF being approved is almost certain (Bloomberg). The first U.S. spot XRP ETF, called REX-Osprey’s XRPR, launched this week.

Why it matters:
ETFs attract large institutional investors, bringing more money and stability to XRP. This development also reduces regulatory uncertainty following Ripple’s planned settlement with the SEC in 2025. Additionally, Ripple is integrating its RLUSD stablecoin and applying for Federal Reserve licenses, which supports XRP’s reputation as a compliant and regulated asset.

What to watch:
Decisions on Franklin Templeton’s XRP ETF application expected by November 14, and possible involvement from major investment firm BlackRock.

2. Large Investor Activity & Derivatives Trading (Mixed Impact)

What happened:
“Whales” (large investors) purchased 120 million XRP, worth about $345 million, over 72 hours (AMBCrypto). At the same time, open interest in XRP derivatives (contracts based on XRP) rose by 3.43% to $7.58 billion. However, Binance’s Taker Buy-Sell Ratio—a measure of buying versus selling activity—remained below 1 for most of September, indicating more selling pressure from retail traders.

Why it matters:
Big purchases suggest that institutional investors are positioning themselves for a potential price increase driven by ETF approval. On the other hand, cautious retail traders and high open interest could lead to price swings. If ETF news disappoints, forced selling (liquidations) might cause sharp drops.

3. Technical Chart Signals (Positive Impact)

What happened:
XRP’s price recently moved above its 100-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $2.85 and is now testing the 50-day EMA at $2.94. A pattern called a descending wedge on the daily chart points to possible upward momentum if XRP can break through the $3.00 resistance level.

Why it matters:
Technical indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 47 and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) at -0.013 show neutral to slightly bearish momentum. However, closing above $3.00 could trigger automated buying by trading algorithms. The next resistance level to watch is the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at $3.07.

Conclusion

XRP’s recent price increase is driven by optimism around ETF approvals, large investor activity, and positive technical signals. However, trading volume is down 28% compared to the 7-day average, suggesting the momentum is fragile. The key question is whether XRP can hold support at $2.85 and break through resistance between $3.00 and $3.07 ahead of important ETF decisions in October.


What could affect the price of XRP?

XRP’s price is balancing between limited supply and positive regulatory developments.

  1. ETF approvals – Six applications are waiting for SEC decisions in October and November.
  2. Whale buying – Large investors purchased 120 million XRP in just three days, tightening supply.
  3. Regulatory clarity – The SEC closed its case against Ripple, and new US-UK crypto agreements are encouraging adoption.

Deep Dive

1. ETF Approvals (Positive Outlook)

Overview: Six spot XRP ETF proposals are pending SEC approval, expected by mid-November 2025. Analysts at Bloomberg believe there’s over a 95% chance these will be approved. The SEC’s updated rules could speed up the process, similar to how Bitcoin ETFs attracted $270 million daily at their peak.

What this means: If approved, these ETFs could bring in large institutional investments (BlackRock’s RLUSD partnership shows strong interest), potentially pushing XRP’s price toward $3.50 to $4.00. However, if approvals are delayed or denied, XRP might see short-term price drops.

2. Supply Squeeze Risks (Mixed Impact)

Overview: Companies like Axelar and Flare Networks plan to lock up 5.1 billion XRP (about 8.5% of the circulating supply) for institutional use. Ripple is also slowing its monthly escrow releases to 1 billion XRP, with 38 billion still locked away. Additionally, large investors (whales) added 120 million XRP in just three days (AMBCrypto).

What this means: With fewer XRP tokens available for trading, price swings could become more extreme. If ETF custodians hold onto XRP from escrow releases, the available supply could shrink to levels similar to Bitcoin’s limited supply, which may drive prices up. On the other hand, if whales decide to sell large amounts suddenly (like the 660 million XRP sold in July), it could cause sharp price drops.

3. Regulatory Momentum (Positive Outlook)

Overview: The SEC officially closed its case against Ripple in March 2025, confirming that XRP is not classified as a security. New initiatives like the NYDFS’s US-UK crypto passporting and Ripple’s application for a Federal Reserve Master Account could help XRP become more integrated into traditional finance.

What this means: These regulatory approvals support XRP’s use for cross-border payments (Ripple handled $1.3 trillion through its On-Demand Liquidity service in Q2). However, challenges remain, such as compliance costs in Europe and competition from government-backed digital currencies (CBDCs).

Conclusion

XRP’s future depends on whether ETF inflows can balance out volatility caused by large investors. Technical indicators, like the recent breakout at $3.15, support a bullish outlook. Keep an eye on the October 13 launch of CME XRP options — a surge in trading interest could show strong institutional confidence or signal risky market speculation.


What are people saying about XRP?

XRP’s online buzz is swinging between excitement about a price jump and worries about a drop. Here’s what’s trending right now:

  1. Big investors (whales) are betting $4.35 million on XRP breaking above $3.18 🚀
  2. Experts warn of a possible repeat of a big 60% price drop like in 2021 🚨
  3. Rumors about XRP ETFs face challenges due to past regulatory issues ⚖️

In-Depth Look

1. Whale Buying Signals a Possible Rise to $4 — Positive Outlook

Twitter user @RipBullWinkle reports:
“Whales bought 340 million XRP near $2.77… Technical indicators are showing buy signals. A breakout above $3.70 could push the price to $4.”
This suggests that large investors are confident, buying XRP around $2.75 to $2.90, which is a key support level. The technical indicator called TD Sequential has historically predicted price jumps of 10–15%, so this could mean a near-term rally.

2. Warning Signs Point to Possible 60% Drop — Bearish Outlook

Twitter user @cryptoWZRD_ warns:
“The weekly chart shows bearish divergence, similar to late 2020. If history repeats, XRP could drop 60% by November.”
Bearish divergence means the price is rising but momentum is weakening, which often signals a coming drop. This pattern was seen before a major 60% crash in 2021. Traders are cautious around the $3.00 to $3.20 resistance level.

3. ETF Approval Hopes Mixed with Regulatory Concerns — Neutral Outlook

Twitter user @blockchainlenny shares:
“The SEC might approve XRP ETFs by October, but past legal battles make investors hesitant despite Ripple’s efforts to get a bank charter.”
ETF approval could bring in over $5 billion in new investments, which would be positive. However, ongoing worries about regulation keep XRP’s price more volatile than Bitcoin’s.

Conclusion

The outlook for XRP is mixed. Big investors are optimistic, but technical signals and regulatory concerns suggest caution. Watch the $3.00 support level closely this week — if XRP holds above it, the price could move up to $3.40. If it falls below, it might revisit lows near $2.75 from August. The SEC’s decision on ETFs, expected between October 17 and November 14, will be a key factor. According to Polymarket, there’s a 65% chance of approval.


What is the latest news about XRP?

XRP is navigating changes in regulations and supply challenges, with hopes for ETFs and large investor moves making headlines. Here’s the latest update:

  1. SEC Requests ETF Withdrawals (September 29, 2025) – The SEC is simplifying crypto ETF approvals but has asked issuers to withdraw XRP ETF applications filed under old rules.
  2. XRP Short Squeeze Talk (September 29, 2025) – Experts warn of a possible supply shortage as big institutions lock up billions of XRP tokens.
  3. New York Regulator Proposes Crypto Passport (September 29, 2025) – The outgoing head of New York’s financial regulator suggests a US-UK agreement to make cross-border crypto business easier.

In-Depth Look

1. SEC Requests ETF Withdrawals (September 29, 2025)

What happened:
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) asked companies to pull back their pending spot XRP ETF applications that were filed under older rules. This comes after the SEC approved new, simpler standards for crypto ETFs on September 18, 2025. More than 16 ETF proposals for cryptocurrencies other than Bitcoin and Ethereum are still being reviewed. Experts at Bloomberg still believe there’s over a 95% chance XRP ETFs will get approved by the end of the year.

Why it matters:
This is mostly a procedural step, but it creates some short-term uncertainty about when XRP ETFs will be approved. On the bright side, the new process could speed up approvals once companies submit updated applications, potentially unlocking billions in demand for XRP. (Yahoo Finance)

2. XRP Short Squeeze Talk (September 29, 2025)

What happened:
Analyst Chad Steingraber pointed out a risk of a supply shortage for XRP. This is because Axelar has locked up $10 billion worth of XRP (about 5% of the tokens available to everyday investors), and Flare Networks plans to hold 5 billion XRP in reserve. At the same time, XRP held on exchanges is dropping, and Ripple’s escrow releases are slowing. This could reduce the XRP available for trading to levels similar to Bitcoin’s limited supply. If that happens, the price of XRP could theoretically reach $8,120 per token.

Why it matters:
Less XRP available to trade means prices could become more volatile. Demand from ETFs and custodians could make this supply squeeze even tighter. Traders are closely watching the $2.80 price level for support, while bets on price swings are increasing, with derivatives trading rising 3.43% to $7.58 billion. (NewsBTC)

3. New York Regulator Proposes Crypto Passport (September 29, 2025)

What happened:
Adrienne Harris, the outgoing superintendent of the New York Department of Financial Services (NYDFS), suggested creating a “crypto passport” between the U.S. and the U.K. This would let licensed crypto companies operate across both countries without needing separate approvals. This idea fits with ongoing talks about future market cooperation but contrasts with the U.K.’s decision not to copy U.S. Bitcoin reserve rules.

Why it matters:
If this passport system is adopted, it could make it easier for XRP to be used in payments between the U.S. and U.K., helping Ripple build more partnerships with institutions. However, with Harris leaving, her replacement Kaitlin Asrow might have different priorities, adding some uncertainty. (CryptoSlate)

Conclusion

XRP is at an important crossroads. While global regulatory clarity is improving, delays in ETF approvals and limited supply could cause short-term price swings. The big question is whether growing institutional interest will overcome regulatory hurdles or if tighter supply will increase risks. Keep an eye on XRP exchange reserves and ETF filing updates in October for clues on where things are headed.


What is expected in the development of XRP?

XRP’s development is moving forward with several key events coming up:

  1. XRP ETF Decisions (October 2025) – The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will decide on multiple XRP-based Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) applications in mid-October.
  2. Ripple Swell Conference (November 4–5, 2025) – Ripple’s major event for announcing partnerships and product updates.
  3. RLUSD Expansion to Japan (Q1 2026) – Ripple’s stablecoin, RLUSD, will launch in Japan through SBI Holdings.
  4. XRPL Apex 2025 in Asia (2025) – A big developer conference aimed at growing XRP adoption in Asia.

Deep Dive

1. XRP ETF Decisions (October 2025)

What’s happening: The SEC will review several applications for XRP ETFs from companies like Grayscale (decision by October 18), 21Shares (October 19), and Franklin Templeton (October 25). If approved, these ETFs would allow more institutional investors to buy XRP easily through traditional stock markets.

Why it matters: Approval would be a big positive for XRP, as it would make XRP more accessible and trusted by large investors. This could bring in significant new money, similar to what happened with Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. On the other hand, if the SEC delays or rejects these ETFs, it could hurt market confidence because regulatory uncertainty remains a concern.

2. Ripple Swell Conference (November 4–5, 2025)

What’s happening: Ripple’s annual Swell event will highlight progress in cross-border payments, central bank digital currency (CBDC) projects, and updates on Ripple’s efforts to get a banking license.

Why it matters: This event could be positive for XRP if Ripple announces important partnerships or regulatory wins, like progress with the Federal Reserve. However, if there are no major breakthroughs, traders hoping for big price moves might be disappointed.

3. RLUSD Expansion to Japan (Q1 2026)

What’s happening: Ripple’s stablecoin RLUSD, which is backed by U.S. Treasury securities and bank deposits, will be introduced in Japan through a partnership with SBI Holdings.

Why it matters: This is good news for XRP because RLUSD’s growth supports the XRP Ledger’s use in real-world financial transactions. More stablecoin activity can increase demand for XRP as a “bridge” currency that helps move money quickly and cheaply across borders.

4. XRPL Apex 2025 in Asia (2025)

What’s happening: Following a successful event in Amsterdam, XRPL Apex 2025 will focus on engaging developers and businesses in the Asia-Pacific region, which is a major hub for cryptocurrency trading.

Why it matters: This is a positive step for XRP adoption since Asia accounts for about 60% of global crypto trading volume. Events like hackathons and corporate partnerships in this region can help grow XRP’s ecosystem and use cases.

Conclusion

XRP’s future depends on several important factors: regulatory decisions on ETFs, expanding its ecosystem with projects like RLUSD and Ripple Swell, and growing its presence in key markets like Asia. While upcoming technical improvements (such as Multi-Purpose Tokens in October 2025 and protocol-level lending in 2026) aim to make XRP more useful, the biggest price drivers will likely be institutional adoption. The big question remains: will the SEC’s ETF rulings open the door for widespread acceptance, or will XRP’s price continue to be influenced mainly by broader market trends?


What updates are there in the XRP code base?

The XRP Ledger (XRPL) is getting important updates to improve security, stability, and features aimed at businesses and institutions, all before key network deadlines.

  1. Devnet Reset & UNL Migration (Oct 3, 2025) – Validators must update to keep running smoothly.
  2. rippled 2.5.1 Rollback Fix (Sep 24, 2025) – Fixes issues causing network slowdowns and memory problems.
  3. Batch & TokenEscrow Features (Jun 24, 2025) – Lets users bundle transactions and manage advanced token escrows.
  4. Confidential Balances Proposal (Sep 15, 2025) – Adds privacy for balances using advanced cryptography, aimed at institutional DeFi.
  5. USDC Integration (Jun 22, 2025) – Circle’s stablecoin USDC is now fully supported on XRPL.

In-Depth Look

1. Devnet Reset & UNL Migration (Oct 3, 2025)

What’s happening?
The XRPL Foundation is resetting the Devnet (a test network) on October 3, 2025, because of unresolved technical issues. Validators on the main network need to switch to a new Unique Node List (UNL) URL by September 30, 2025, or risk being disconnected.

Why it matters:
This update is mainly about keeping the network stable and secure. It doesn’t affect XRP’s value directly but is crucial for the people running the network’s infrastructure. Validators must update promptly to avoid service interruptions. (Source)

2. rippled 2.5.1 Rollback Fix (Sep 24, 2025)

What’s happening?
After problems with version 2.6.0, the developers rolled back to version 2.5.1. This fix addresses stalled consensus (agreement on transactions) and memory conflicts caused by software libraries. Some new features were delayed to focus on stability.

Why it matters:
This update improves the reliability of the XRP Ledger, making sure transactions are processed smoothly without interruptions. It shows the team prioritizes a stable network over adding new features too quickly. (Source)

3. Batch & TokenEscrow Features (Jun 24, 2025)

What’s happening?
The release of rippled 2.5.0 introduced “Batch” transactions, which let users combine up to 8 operations into one atomic (all-or-nothing) transaction. It also added TokenEscrow, allowing advanced escrow arrangements for tokens other than XRP.

Why it matters:
These features make XRPL more attractive to businesses by enabling complex financial processes—like payroll or releasing tokenized assets—to happen securely and automatically on the blockchain. This supports broader institutional use. (Source)

4. Confidential Balances Proposal (Sep 15, 2025)

What’s happening?
A new proposal suggests using encryption and Zero-Knowledge Proofs (ZKPs) to keep balances and transfers private while still allowing audits. This targets institutions that need privacy but must comply with regulations.

Why it matters:
This could make XRPL a strong option for regulated financial institutions wanting privacy in decentralized finance (DeFi) without sacrificing transparency. It competes with privacy features offered on other blockchains like Ethereum. (Source)

Conclusion

The XRP Ledger is evolving with a focus on enterprise-ready features like batch transactions and privacy tools, while also fixing critical stability issues. These updates, including compliance-friendly options, position XRPL as a bridge between traditional finance and blockchain technology.

Will these privacy upgrades help bring more institutions to XRPL beyond just payment use cases?