Why did the price of ETH fall?

Ethereum (ETH) dropped 0.66% in the last 24 hours, underperforming Bitcoin, which rose 0.15%. This happened amid mixed market signals and overall caution. Here are the main points:

1. Struggling to Break Key Price Level – ETH couldn’t get past $4,250, leading traders to take profits.
2. Less Activity in Derivatives – Traders are reducing risky bets, with open interest down 2.76%.
3. ETF Withdrawals – About $8 million was pulled out from Ethereum ETFs, reversing recent gains.
4. Waiting on Fed Decision – Investors are cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate announcement on October 29.

In-Depth Look

1. Trouble at Key Price Level (Short-Term Bearish)

Ethereum tried several times this week to rise above $4,250 but failed. This caused automatic sell orders and traders to cash in profits. Now, ETH is testing support around its 30-day moving average, about $4,143.

What this means: When a price can’t break through important resistance levels, it often signals that buying momentum is weakening. The MACD indicator, which helps show market trends, suggests the upward pressure is fading. Experts like Ted Pillows warn that if ETH falls below $4,050, it could trigger a wave of forced sell-offs (source).

What to watch: If ETH drops below $4,100 for a sustained period, it might lead to $200 million in forced liquidations, which could push prices down further.

2. Cooling Off in Derivatives Market (Neutral Impact)

Open interest in Ethereum futures contracts decreased by 2.76% to $849 billion. Funding rates, which reflect the cost of holding leveraged positions, remain slightly positive at +0.0053%.

What this means: Traders are pulling back from highly leveraged bets ahead of the Fed’s decision, reducing the fuel for big price swings. The ratio of spot trading volume to futures volume (0.23) indicates less speculative activity compared to actual buying and selling of ETH.

3. ETF Outflows Signal Caution (Slightly Bearish)

On October 27, U.S. Ethereum ETFs saw $8 million in net withdrawals, interrupting a three-day streak of inflows totaling $141 million (source).

What this means: After a strong 6% weekly gain in ETH’s price, institutional investors are taking some profits. However, the overall 30-day trend remains positive, with $1.2 billion in inflows, suggesting this is a short-term pause rather than a major sell-off.

Conclusion

Ethereum’s recent dip is mainly due to traders taking profits and reducing risk ahead of the Federal Reserve’s rate announcement, not because of any fundamental problems. Holding the $4,000 to $4,100 price range is important to avoid bigger drops. ETH still has strong support from ETF inflows and upcoming network upgrades like Pectra.

Key point to watch: Will Ethereum hold above its 30-day moving average ($4,143) during the volatility expected around the Fed’s announcement?

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What could affect the price of ETH?

Ethereum’s price is caught between promising upgrades and some market challenges.

1. Fusaka Upgrade (Positive) – Big boost to scalability could increase use of Layer 2 solutions
2. Institutional Activity (Mixed) – Large investors are buying more ETH, but ETFs are seeing withdrawals
3. Staking Changes (Negative) – Reduced rewards might discourage individual stakers

In-Depth Look

1. Protocol Upgrades & Scalability (Positive Outlook)

What’s Happening:
Ethereum’s upcoming Fusaka upgrade, planned for December 3, 2025, will introduce PeerDAS technology. This will increase the number of data blobs per block from 6 to 21, potentially doubling the capacity of Layer 2 networks. Layer 2 solutions like Arbitrum could process over 12,000 transactions per second by 2026 (CryptoGucci). The Hoodi testnet already activated this feature on October 28.

Why It Matters:
Better scalability means lower transaction fees and a stronger foundation for decentralized finance (DeFi) and real-world asset projects on Ethereum. Past upgrades, like the Dencun update in 2023, led to a 40% price increase, suggesting this upgrade could also drive positive momentum if delivered on time.

2. Institutional Moves & ETF Trends (Mixed Signals)

What’s Happening:

• Positive: Corporate investors added 200,000 ETH (about $727 million) in July 2025, including BitMine’s $321 million purchase (Yahoo Finance).
• Negative: Meanwhile, ETH spot ETFs experienced $129 million in outflows last week, while Bitcoin ETFs saw $2.3 billion in inflows (CoinMarketCap News).

Why It Matters:
Large holders (whales) accumulating ETH shows confidence, but declining ETF demand could limit price gains. Also, Ethereum’s price still closely follows Bitcoin’s trends, with a 30-day correlation of 0.89, meaning it’s affected by the broader crypto market.

3. Staking Centralization Risks (Potential Downside)

What’s Happening:
Proposed changes under EIP-7702 could cut staking rewards for solo stakers by up to 100%, encouraging more ETH to move into liquid staking services like Lido (ETH Research). Currently, 44.6% of staked ETH is managed by centralized providers.

Why It Matters:
More centralization in staking could attract regulatory attention, especially from the SEC, and might weaken the network’s security. On the upside, institutional staking (with $22.83 billion in ETH ETFs) could help keep yields stable around 3.5%.

Conclusion

Ethereum’s price will depend on successfully rolling out upgrades that boost its role as the leading Layer 1 blockchain, while managing risks from staking centralization and ETF market shifts. Key price levels to watch are the $4,100 support (forming a double-bottom pattern) and the $4,491 Fibonacci extension. The big question remains: Will Fusaka’s increased data capacity bring enough new users to make up for fewer solo stakers?

What are people saying about ETH?

The Ethereum community is divided between hopes for new all-time highs (ATH) and concerns about technical signals. Here’s the latest:

1. ETF inflows, shrinking reserves, and derivatives point to a rare bullish setup
2. Polymarket predicts a 75% chance ETH will hit a new ATH by August 31
3. Analysts warn of bearish momentum signals near the $4,900 resistance level

Deep Dive

1. @Eliteonchain: Spot and derivatives markets show bullish signs

"ETF inflows (+27K ETH last week), exchange reserves down (-2.64%), and positive funding rates are all aligning for the first time since March. Institutions are buying, retail investors aren’t selling, and traders are holding long positions."
– @Eliteonchain (89K followers · 1.2M impressions · 2025-09-17 15:55 UTC)
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What this means: This is a positive sign for Ethereum. When institutional demand, reduced supply on exchanges, and leveraged trading all line up, it often leads to strong price increases.

2. @Polymarket: 75% chance of new ATH by August 31

"With ETH priced at $4,714 (about 5% below its ATH), prediction market users estimate a 75% chance of reaching new highs this month. The target price is $4,891.70."
– Polymarket (220K followers · 950K impressions · 2025-08-13 19:42 UTC)
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What this means: This is a mixed signal. While the high probability suggests confidence, it also means many traders are betting the same way, which can increase price swings if the target isn’t reached.

3. @mkbijaksana: Bearish momentum warning near $4,900 resistance

"The failed attempt to break $5,000 and the bearish RSI divergence are concerning. Ethereum’s price structure holds, but if momentum fades, it could drop back to around $4,400."
– @mkbijaksana (43K followers · 287K impressions · 2025-08-27 01:28 UTC)
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What this means: This is a short-term warning. When price momentum indicators like RSI diverge from price action, it often signals a potential pullback, especially near key resistance levels.

Conclusion

The outlook for Ethereum is mixed. Institutional buying and positive market signals suggest strength, but technical indicators and crowded trades raise caution. Keep an eye on the $4,900–$5,000 range: breaking above could lead to new price discoveries, while rejection might push prices down to the $4,400–$4,500 support area.

What is the latest news about ETH?

Ethereum is navigating moves by corporate treasuries and technical challenges, while rumors about ecosystem upgrades keep the community engaged. Here’s what’s happening now:

1. ETHZilla Share Buyback (Oct 28, 2025) – ETHZilla sold $40 million worth of Ethereum to buy back 600,000 shares, aiming to reduce a 30% discount on its net asset value (NAV).
2. Price Signals (Oct 28, 2025) – Ethereum formed a double-bottom pattern around $4,100, but faces resistance near $4,300.
3. MetaMask Token Speculation (Oct 28, 2025) – A new domain registration has sparked talk of a MetaMask token airdrop, increasing user interest.

In-Depth Look

1. ETHZilla Share Buyback (Oct 28, 2025)

What happened:
ETHZilla, a company listed on Nasdaq that holds a large Ethereum treasury, sold $40 million worth of ETH to repurchase 600,000 of its own shares. This move is designed to reduce a 30% discount on the company’s net asset value (NAV) and respond to pressure from activist investors. After the announcement, ETHZilla’s shares jumped 28%. However, some experts warn that if many crypto companies follow this path, it could put downward pressure on Ethereum’s price.

What this means for Ethereum:
This is a neutral development overall. Buybacks usually show confidence in Ethereum’s long-term value, but if many firms sell ETH to fund buybacks, it could create selling pressure in the market. ETHZilla still holds $400 million in Ethereum, but the ongoing NAV discounts across the sector (Yahoo Finance) highlight risks for companies with large ETH holdings.

2. Price Signals (Oct 28, 2025)

What happened:
Ethereum’s price tested support at $4,100 after failing to break through a resistance zone between $4,283 and $4,326. A double-bottom chart pattern suggests a possible price rebound, but other indicators like a bearish RSI divergence and a 43% drop in ETH moving off exchanges since October 15 suggest buying momentum is weakening.

What this means for Ethereum:
Short-term, this looks cautiously bearish. If Ethereum closes above $4,395, it could spark a 10% rally toward $4,500. But if it falls below $3,918, the price might drop further to around $3,711. The Smart Money Index, which tracks large investors, has been rising since October 22, indicating that big players might be accumulating ETH (Crypto.News).

3. MetaMask Token Speculation (Oct 28, 2025)

What happened:
ConsenSys, the company behind MetaMask, registered the domain “claim.metamask.io,” fueling rumors about a possible MetaMask token launch. Betting odds for a 2025 token airdrop jumped from 18% to 32%, driven by MetaMask’s large user base (over 30 million monthly users) and renewed interest in decentralized finance (DeFi).

What this means for Ethereum:
This is a positive sign for Ethereum. A MetaMask token could encourage more activity in the Ethereum ecosystem, similar to how tokens from Safe (SAFE) and Trust Wallet (TWT) have boosted their platforms. However, token launches can be delayed—WalletConnect’s token came months after similar domain activity (NullTX).

Conclusion

Ethereum is facing mixed signals: corporate treasury moves are reshaping portfolios, technical indicators show uncertainty near key price levels, and ecosystem players hint at new growth opportunities. While short-term price risks remain near resistance levels, upcoming network upgrades like December’s Fusaka (which improves Layer 2 scaling) and potential MetaMask developments could help Ethereum regain momentum.

The big question: will institutional investments balance out the selling pressure from treasury-driven ETH sales?

What is expected in the development of ETH?

Ethereum’s development is moving forward with key upgrades:

1. Fusaka Upgrade (Dec 3, 2025) – Increases data capacity to make Layer 2 transactions much cheaper.
2. Native zkEVM Integration (2025-2026) – Improves scalability and privacy using advanced cryptography called zero-knowledge proofs.
3. Glamsterdam Upgrade (First half of 2026) – Aims for faster block times and better gas efficiency.
4. Quantum Resistance (2026 and beyond) – Prepares Ethereum to resist future quantum computer threats.

Deep Dive

1. Fusaka Upgrade (December 3, 2025)

Overview
Fusaka combines two improvements: PeerDAS (a way to verify data availability) and increasing the number of data blobs per block from 6 to between 14 and 21. This upgrade is designed to cut Layer 2 transaction fees by about 95%, allowing up to 12,000 transactions per second (TPS) across rollups (Layer 2 scaling solutions). Test networks like Holešky, Sepolia, and Hoodi are set to launch in October 2025.

What this means
This is a very positive development for users, as it will drastically lower transaction costs and encourage more use of Layer 2 solutions. However, there is a risk of delays if testing uncovers serious bugs (CryptoGucci).

2. Native zkEVM Integration (2025-2026)

Overview
This upgrade plans to integrate zero-knowledge proofs directly into Ethereum’s main network (Layer 1). This will allow instant, verified withdrawals and trustless bridges between blockchains. The goal is to generate these proofs in about 10 seconds on regular consumer hardware.

What this means
This could attract more institutional users to decentralized finance (DeFi) by improving security and speed. However, it depends on overcoming technical challenges like making proof generation efficient. Competitors such as Solana may push Ethereum to meet tight deadlines (Binance News).

3. Glamsterdam Upgrade (First half of 2026)

Overview
Glamsterdam aims to reduce block times to around 6 seconds and introduce the Block Access List (BAL), which optimizes gas usage. This upgrade follows Fusaka and is part of Ethereum’s plan to scale modularly.

What this means
Faster block times will improve user experience, especially for real-time applications. However, shorter block times might put more pressure on smaller validators, potentially leading to centralization of node operations (NullTX).

4. Quantum Resistance & Lean Ethereum Plan (2026 and beyond)

Overview
The "Lean Ethereum" initiative focuses on preparing Ethereum for the future by adopting quantum-resistant cryptography, formally verifying protocols, and simplifying node operations. The goal is to reach 10,000 TPS on Layer 1 with 100% uptime.

What this means
This is a long-term positive step that aims to make Ethereum secure against future quantum computer threats. However, research and development challenges remain. Success depends on maintaining a balance between security and decentralization (CoinMarketCap).

Conclusion

Ethereum’s roadmap focuses on improving scalability (with Fusaka), seamless interoperability (with Glamsterdam), and future-proof security (quantum resistance). While technical risks remain, these upgrades could strengthen Ethereum’s position as the foundation of decentralized finance. An interesting question is how increased Layer 2 adoption will affect Ethereum’s transaction fees after Fusaka.

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What updates are there in the ETH code base?

Ethereum’s software has received important updates to improve validator efficiency, Layer-2 scaling, and overall client performance.

1. Ethrex Client Update (October 11, 2025) – Redesigned synchronization to speed up block processing and optimized gas pricing.
2. Fusaka Upgrade Testing (August 23, 2025) – Increased blob capacity 8 times using PeerDAS, making Layer-2 transactions much cheaper.
3. Gas Limit Increase (June 30, 2025) – Raised default gas limits to 45 million to allow more transactions per block.

Deep Dive

1. Ethrex Client Update (October 11, 2025)

Overview: Ethrex version 1.33.0 brought significant improvements to Ethereum’s Layer 1 and Layer 2 nodes by speeding up block syncing and refining gas fee calculations.

The update changed the way nodes sync blocks by fetching them from newest to oldest, which lowers the chance of chain reorganizations and improves node stability. For Layer-2 solutions, a new fee vault system was introduced that splits base fees between operator costs and Layer-1 data posting. This helps balance scalability with economic sustainability.

What this means: This update is positive for Ethereum because nodes can handle more network traffic reliably, reducing downtime during busy periods. Developers also get clearer gas fee structures, encouraging more decentralized app (dApp) innovation. (Source)

2. Fusaka Upgrade Testing (August 23, 2025)

Overview: The Fusaka upgrade tested PeerDAS (Peer Data Availability Sampling) on development networks, increasing blob capacity from 6 to 48 per block.

PeerDAS lets nodes verify data using cryptographic proofs instead of downloading entire data blobs, which lowers hardware requirements. Along with planned “BPO forks” to gradually raise blob limits, this could reduce Layer-2 transaction fees by about 95% after full deployment.

What this means: This is great news for Ethereum because cheaper Layer-2 transactions could enable new use cases like micro-payments in gaming and social apps, boosting adoption. Validators benefit from better scalability without sacrificing decentralization. (Source)

3. Gas Limit Increase (June 30, 2025)

Overview: Popular Ethereum clients like Geth and Nethermind increased the default gas limit per block to 45 million, up from 40 million (about a 12.5% increase).

This change came after community discussions led by ethPandaOps, aiming to increase transaction throughput while keeping block propagation times manageable. Early tests showed a 15-20% increase in daily transaction capacity without causing major delays.

What this means: This update is neutral for Ethereum overall. Users benefit from faster transaction confirmations, but higher gas limits might temporarily increase blockchain size. Node operators will need to ensure their hardware can handle the increased load. (Source)

Conclusion

Ethereum’s recent upgrades focus on improving scalability (Fusaka), node reliability (Ethrex), and transaction throughput (gas limit increase). These changes strengthen Ethereum’s core, but it remains to be seen how evolving validator incentives and Layer-2 fee structures will affect its position compared to emerging modular blockchains.