What could affect the price of TON?

Toncoin’s future depends on how its ecosystem grows, big investors’ actions, and changing regulations.

1. Institutional Treasury Adoption – $558 million raised for a TON-backed corporate treasury (Verb Tech).
2. Telegram Ecosystem Integration – Over 1 billion users drive uses like payments, decentralized finance (DeFi), and gaming.
3. Whale Concentration Risks – Large holders control 68% of the supply, increasing price swings.

Deep Dive

1. Corporate Treasury Momentum (Positive Outlook)

Overview:
Verb Technology raised $558 million in private funding to build a treasury using TON, similar to how MicroStrategy invests in Bitcoin. This reduces the number of coins available for trading and shows strong institutional interest. The TON Foundation and Kingsway Capital also plan to raise $400 million to grow ecosystem reserves (CobakOfficial).

What this means:
Less available supply combined with big investors buying in could help stabilize Toncoin’s price and encourage others to follow. But long-term success depends on real-world use beyond just investment.

2. Telegram’s Billion-User Playground (Mixed Outlook)

Overview:
Toncoin powers Telegram’s Web3 features, including in-app payments, NFT games like Capybobo, and integration with USDT stablecoin. The number of active TON wallets has grown 20% in six months (TON Docs).

What this means:
Telegram’s huge user base offers strong potential for Toncoin’s everyday use. However, short-term price changes depend on how many casual users become active token holders. Recent hype around meme coins (with $84.5 million monthly trading volume) adds to price volatility.

3. Whale-Driven Volatility (Risk Factor)

Overview:
Big investors, or “whales,” hold 68% of Toncoin’s supply, but less than 20% is held long-term. Price drops to $2.80 recently caused panic selling, showing that regular investors may be quick to sell (CoinMarketCap).

What this means:
When a few large holders control most of the supply, sudden sell-offs can cause sharp price drops. However, staking rewards (0.6% annual inflation) might encourage holders to keep their coins. It’s important to watch for large transfers to exchanges or between wallets.

Conclusion

Toncoin’s price will be shaped by growing institutional support, big investor behavior, and regulatory challenges like the UAE’s Golden Visa denial. The $2.20–$2.40 range is a key short-term support level. Will Telegram’s ecosystem growth be enough to counteract selling pressure from whales as Toncoin tests its 200-day EMA at $3.02?

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What are people saying about TON?

Toncoin’s buzz swings between concerns over big holders and exciting ecosystem developments. Here’s what’s trending:

1. Whales control 68% of TON – raising worries about price swings
2. Golden Visa program lowers entry costs through staking
3. Technical chart patterns suggest a possible 50% price move
4. $TONX valuation gap catches attention
5. Telegram integration boosts long-term optimism

In-Depth Look

1. Whale dominance could shake stability (bearish)

According to CoinMarketCap, over 68% of Toncoin is held by a small group of large holders, known as whales, while less than 20% is owned by long-term investors. This concentration has contributed to a 65% price drop from its all-time high to $2.84.
What this means: When a few holders control most of the supply, there’s a risk they could sell large amounts at once, causing price drops. However, Telegram’s huge user base of 1 billion people offers strong potential for Toncoin’s use and value.
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2. Golden Visa program offers big discounts through TON staking (bullish)

CoinMarketCap reports that staking Toncoin can reduce fees for the Golden Visa program by 80%, creating a new practical use for the token.
What this means: This real-world application could increase demand for Toncoin, though it’s important to watch how many people actually take advantage of this program.
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3. Technical chart signals a possible 50% price swing (mixed)

Chart analyst @ali_charts notes that Toncoin’s price is forming a triangle pattern, which often precedes a big move—potentially between $1.11 and $3.33.
What this means: The price could either break above $2.30 (currently $2.22) and rise, or fall below $2.10 and retest lows from June. This suggests upcoming volatility.
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4. $TONX trades below its net asset value (NAV) – possible buying opportunity (bullish)

Investor @gabrelyanov points out that $TONX holds $571 million in Toncoin and cash but trades at $9.4 per share, equal to its NAV, hinting at an arbitrage chance.
What this means: The market might be undervaluing assets linked to Toncoin, despite Telegram’s growing ecosystem.
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5. Ecosystem growth is speeding up (bullish)

Also from @gabrelyanov: Coinbase Ventures is backing Toncoin, Robinhood has listed it, and AWS integration is underway. Plus, Toncoin memecoin trading volume is up 113% month-over-month.
What this means: These infrastructure improvements and exchange support could help stabilize Toncoin’s price and encourage long-term growth.
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Conclusion

The outlook on Toncoin is mixed. While the concentration of supply among whales and a 33% drop year-to-date are concerns, developments like the $TONX discount to NAV and growing ecosystem support suggest the project may be undervalued. Keep an eye on the $2.80 price level—if it breaks down, it could trigger big sell-offs by whales or, alternatively, spark a strong rebound.

What is the latest news about TON?

Toncoin is making moves in Web3 collectibles, raising big funds, and expanding on major crypto exchanges. Here’s the quick update:

1. Web3 Toy Fusion (Oct 28, 2025) – Capybobo combines TON NFTs with real-world collectibles using Telegram.
2. $400M Treasury Plan (Sept 13, 2025) – TON Strategy Co. plans to raise $400 million to hold Toncoin as a reserve, aiming to work with big financial firms like BlackRock and Citadel.
3. Coinbase Support (Sept 10, 2025) – Coinbase Ventures invested in TON, and the coin is now available on Robinhood and Gemini.

In-Depth Look

1. Web3 Toy Fusion (Oct 28, 2025)

What happened: Capybobo launched a platform on TON that links digital collectibles (NFTs) with physical toys and outfits you can redeem. This project gained attention at Tokyo WebX 2025 and plans to expand into Europe. It uses Telegram’s huge user base (over 1 billion users) to reach more people.
Why it matters: This is a positive sign for Toncoin because it connects cryptocurrency with everyday consumer products through fun, collectible toys. It could activate Telegram’s large but mostly inactive user base. (The Block)

2. $400M Treasury Plan (Sept 13, 2025)

What happened: TON Strategy Co., formerly known as Verb Technology, wants to raise over $400 million to buy Toncoin and hold it as a reserve asset. They’re working with Kingsway Capital and aiming to partner with traditional finance giants like BlackRock by 2026.
Why it matters: This could be good for Toncoin because big institutional investors holding the coin might reduce how much is available on the market, potentially stabilizing or increasing its value. However, since 68% of Toncoin is already held by large wallets (“whales”), this concentration could also cause price swings. (X post)

3. Coinbase Support (Sept 10, 2025)

What happened: Coinbase Ventures revealed they hold TON, and the coin was added for trading on Robinhood and Gemini. Amazon Web Services (AWS) also integrated TON into its blockchain data tools.
Why it matters: This shows growing trust and support for Toncoin, making it easier to buy and sell. Still, the price is down 55% compared to last year, reflecting broader challenges in the crypto market. (X post)

Conclusion

Toncoin’s ecosystem is growing with new consumer products, big financial partnerships, and wider exchange access. But challenges remain, including the dominance of large holders and overall market conditions. The big question is whether Telegram’s massive user base will turn into steady, real-world use of Toncoin or if it will stay mostly speculative.

What is expected in the development of TON?

Toncoin’s roadmap is centered on growing its ecosystem, expanding decentralized finance (DeFi) options, and upgrading its technical infrastructure.

1. TON Storage Mainnet (2025) – Launch of decentralized file storage.
2. Jetton 2.0 Upgrade (Q4 2025) – Token transfers become three times faster.
3. Institutional Treasury Growth (2025–2026) – Raising over $400 million to support Toncoin’s value.
4. Cross-Chain Scalability (2026) – Partnerships to enable smooth asset transfers across blockchains like Ethereum and Solana.

Deep Dive

1. TON Storage Mainnet (2025)

Overview: TON Storage is a decentralized file storage system similar to Dropbox but powered by blockchain technology. It’s planned to launch on the main network in 2025. Users will be able to pay for storage services using Toncoin, increasing its practical use (TON Primer).

What this means: This is a positive development for Toncoin because it expands its use beyond just payments. It could attract developers and businesses interested in secure, censorship-resistant storage. However, there are risks such as delays in adoption and competition from existing services like IPFS.

2. Jetton 2.0 Upgrade (Q4 2025)

Overview: Announced in September 2025, Jetton 2.0 will make token transfers on the Toncoin network three times faster and improve smart contract performance. This upgrade is aimed at supporting meme coins and DeFi projects on the platform (Gabrelyanov on X).

What this means: This could increase activity on the Toncoin network, but its success depends on how many developers adopt the upgrade. Competing blockchains like Solana and Ethereum Layer 2 solutions already offer very fast transaction speeds.

3. Institutional Treasury Growth (2025–2026)

Overview: The TON Foundation and Kingsway Capital plan to raise over $400 million to build a treasury that will hold about 5% of Toncoin’s total supply. This strategy is similar to how MicroStrategy invests in Bitcoin but includes earning staking rewards (Assemble on X).

What this means: This move could reduce selling pressure on Toncoin and help stabilize its price. However, a large portion of Toncoin (68%) is already held by a few large holders, which poses risks related to market control.

4. Cross-Chain Scalability (2026)

Overview: After shutting down older bridges in May 2025, Toncoin is focusing on partnerships with LayerZero and Symbiosis to allow easy transfers of assets between Ethereum, Solana, and Toncoin networks (CryptoTimes).

What this means: This is important for attracting more liquidity and users. However, the success of these bridges depends on avoiding security issues like the “bridge hacks” that have affected other cross-chain systems.

Conclusion

Toncoin’s roadmap combines technical improvements (like Jetton 2.0 and TON Storage) with strategic efforts to attract institutional investment and expand cross-chain capabilities. While there are promising signs, challenges remain, including the high concentration of Toncoin among large holders and regulatory concerns related to Telegram’s involvement.

Will TON’s DeFi ecosystem grow faster than its centralized competitors?

What updates are there in the TON code base?

Toncoin’s latest updates focus on faster transactions, improved decentralized finance (DeFi) features, and better developer tools.

1. Jetton 2.0 Upgrade (September 10, 2025) – Token transfers are now three times faster.
2. Stable Swap Launch (September 4, 2025) – Reduced price changes when swapping stablecoins, thanks to a partnership with Curve Finance.
3. AWS Blockchain Integration (September 10, 2025) – Developers get easier access to blockchain data through Amazon Web Services.

Deep Dive

1. Jetton 2.0 Upgrade (September 10, 2025)

What happened: Jetton 2.0 is Toncoin’s updated token system. It now processes transactions three times faster, making activities like trading meme coins, NFTs, and DeFi apps smoother and quicker.

This upgrade improves how smart contracts run and reduces delays on the network, which is especially helpful for fast-paced uses like mini-games on Telegram.

Why it matters: Faster transfers mean a better experience for users and developers, encouraging more projects to build on the Toncoin platform. (Source)

2. Stable Swap Launch (September 4, 2025)

What happened: Toncoin teamed up with Curve Finance to introduce a “Stable Swap” feature. This helps reduce price swings when exchanging stablecoins, particularly between USDT and TON.

The system uses special algorithms to keep prices steady and minimize losses during trades.

Why it matters: Lower price fluctuations make trading more reliable, which can increase liquidity and attract more users to Toncoin’s DeFi ecosystem. (Source)

3. AWS Blockchain Integration (September 10, 2025)

What happened: Amazon Web Services (AWS) added Toncoin to its Public Blockchain Data program. This allows developers to access and analyze blockchain data more easily and in real time.

It also simplifies running blockchain nodes, making it easier for new developers to start building on Toncoin.

Why it matters: While this doesn’t directly affect Toncoin’s price, better infrastructure support helps grow the developer community and long-term ecosystem health. (Source)

Conclusion

Toncoin’s recent improvements focus on making the network faster, enhancing DeFi features, and supporting developers with better tools. These steps align with Toncoin’s goal to leverage Telegram’s large user base for widespread adoption. It will be interesting to see how developer activity and user engagement evolve in the last quarter of 2025.

Why did the price of TON fall?

Toncoin (TON) dropped 1.34% ($2.22) in the last 24 hours, underperforming the overall crypto market, which fell 1.74%. Key reasons include:

1. Market-wide caution – Bitcoin fell 1.8% ahead of the Federal Reserve’s announcement.
2. Technical resistance – TON’s price remains below its 30-day moving average ($2.42).
3. Whale influence – Large holders control 68% of TON’s supply, increasing price swings.

In-Depth Analysis

1. Market-Wide Sell-Off Impact (Bearish)

Bitcoin’s 1.8% decline to $112,000 on October 28 led to $552 million in forced sell-offs, hitting alternative cryptocurrencies like TON the hardest. TON’s trading volume jumped 15.7% to $211 million, indicating panic selling.

Because TON’s price tends to move somewhat with Bitcoin (its beta is 0.31 according to CoinMarketCap), it’s vulnerable to Bitcoin’s price changes. With crypto derivatives open interest reaching $876 billion (up slightly by 0.03% in 24 hours), traders are reducing risk by selling mid-sized coins like TON first.

What to watch: The Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision at 2 PM ET today. A more cautious or “dovish” stance could help TON recover.

2. Technical Analysis (Neutral to Bearish)

TON’s price fell below its 30-day simple moving average (SMA) of $2.42 and is facing resistance near the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $2.36. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 41.7, showing weakening buying momentum.

Key technical points:

• The 7-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $2.19 is below the 30-day EMA at $2.40, a bearish sign.
• The MACD histogram has turned slightly positive (+0.0275) but remains below its signal line, indicating mixed momentum.
• The next support level to watch is $2.04, corresponding to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.

3. Concentration of Supply (Structural Risk)

About 68% of TON’s total supply is held by large “whale” wallets (CoinMarketCap community), and less than 20% is held by long-term investors.

This creates risks such as:

• Increased chance of large sell-offs during volatile periods due to low long-term holder commitment.
• A recent 65% drop from its all-time high ($8.20 down to $2.84) trapped many late buyers, creating resistance overhead.
• Network activity has stalled after the initial excitement around the “tap-to-earn” feature faded.

Conclusion

Toncoin’s recent decline reflects broader market caution, technical challenges, and risks from concentrated supply. While the Federal Reserve’s policy announcement could trigger a bounce, TON will likely need fresh news about Telegram integration or increased buying from whales to change its downward trend.

Key point to monitor: Will TON hold the $2.04 support level, or will selling pressure from whales push it toward its yearly lows? Keep an eye on Telegram’s developer updates for potential catalysts.