Why did the price of ZEC fall?

Zcash (ZEC) dropped 6.33% in the last 24 hours but is still up 28% over the past week and an impressive 520% over the last month. This recent dip is mainly due to investors taking profits after a big price jump, technical signals showing the coin was overbought, and a shift in market focus back to Bitcoin.

1. Profit-taking after a huge rally – ZEC’s price jumped over 700% in 90 days, so a pullback was expected.
2. Overbought technical indicators – The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hit 80.88 over 7 days, indicating the coin was overbought.
3. Bitcoin gaining dominance – Bitcoin’s market share rose to 59.07%, pulling investment away from altcoins like ZEC.

Deep Dive

1. Profit-Taking After a Big Rally (Short-Term Downtrend)

Overview: ZEC’s price soared 740% in 90 days, fueled by Arthur Hayes’ bold $10,000 price prediction, new partnerships with Solana, and excitement about its upcoming November halving event. The recent 24-hour drop reflects traders cashing in on gains after the rapid rise.

What this means: After such a steep climb, it’s normal to see some price correction. Trading volume for ZEC dropped 42% to $821 million, showing less buying interest. Also, futures contracts worth $9 million were liquidated, meaning some traders betting on further price increases had to close their positions.

What to watch: The $296.65 price level is important—it’s a key support point based on Fibonacci retracement from the recent high of $371.59. If ZEC holds this level, it could stabilize and avoid further drops.

2. Overbought Signals and Technical Fatigue (Mixed Outlook)

Overview: The 7-day RSI for ZEC hit 80.88, the highest since 2021, signaling the coin was overbought. Additionally, the MACD indicator turned negative for the first time this month, suggesting momentum is slowing.

What this means: High RSI values often precede price pullbacks. The negative MACD supports this, indicating the upward momentum may be fading. However, the 30-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $206.69 still provides a solid support level.

What to watch: If ZEC’s price falls below the pivot point of $346.46, it could lead to a deeper correction toward $250, which aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.

3. Market Shift Toward Bitcoin (Negative for Altcoins)

Overview: Bitcoin’s dominance in the crypto market increased to 59.07%, up 1.3% from last month, while the Altcoin Season Index dropped 59% over 30 days.

What this means: Investors are moving money from riskier altcoins like ZEC back into Bitcoin, especially ahead of major economic events like Federal Reserve interest rate decisions. ZEC’s 6.3% drop in 24 hours was sharper than the overall crypto market’s 1.09% decline, showing altcoins are more vulnerable right now.

Conclusion

Zcash’s recent price drop is a natural cooldown after a rapid and unsustainable rise, made worse by Bitcoin’s renewed strength and signs of technical exhaustion. The key question now is whether ZEC can hold the $296 support level or if profit-taking will push prices lower. Keep an eye on Bitcoin’s market dominance and growth in shielded transactions for signs that demand for privacy coins like ZEC might pick up again.

What could affect the price of ZEC?

Zcash is gaining attention for its privacy features but faces significant ups and downs ahead.

1. Halving Event – Supply will tighten around mid-November 2025
2. Institutional Interest – Grayscale trust and possible Coinbase listing
3. Regulatory Challenges – EU privacy laws versus demand for anonymity

In-Depth Look

1. Halving & Supply Changes (Positive Outlook)

What’s Happening: Around November 15, 2025, Zcash (ZEC) will undergo its third "halving," which means the rewards miners get for validating transactions will be cut in half—from 1.5625 ZEC to 0.78125 ZEC per block. Currently, about 16.28 million ZEC are in circulation, which is 78% of the total possible supply. After the halving, new ZEC entering the market will slow to about 2.1% per year, which is even tighter than Bitcoin’s 1.7% (NewsBTC).

Why It Matters: With fewer new coins being created, miners might sell less ZEC, potentially making the coin scarcer if demand stays steady. In the past, ZEC’s price jumped 220% before its 2020 halving but then pulled back afterward.

2. Institutional Adoption (Mixed Effects)

What’s Happening: Grayscale manages a ZEC Trust with $46 million in assets, and there are rumors that Coinbase might list ZEC soon (CoinJournal). These moves could bring more institutional investors into Zcash. However, only about 25% of ZEC transactions currently use the privacy-focused “shielded” feature.

Why It Matters: Institutional products could improve market liquidity and stability, but they might also introduce “paper ZEC” (investment products that don’t use the privacy features), which could weaken Zcash’s core privacy appeal. Exchange-traded fund (ETF)-style products might cause the price to move independently of how much people actually use ZEC’s privacy technology.

3. Regulatory and Competitive Risks (Challenges Ahead)

What’s Happening: The European Union’s upcoming AML Regulation 6 (effective 2027) could force exchanges to delist privacy coins like Zcash. At the same time, competitors like Monero are upgrading their privacy tech, and projects like Aleo are developing programmable privacy features (Bitrue).

Why It Matters: Zcash offers optional privacy, allowing users to choose between transparent and shielded transactions, which helps with regulatory compliance. But this flexibility might make it less competitive compared to coins that offer full privacy by default.

Conclusion

Zcash’s future depends on how well it balances reduced miner rewards after the halving, growing interest from institutions, and ongoing privacy battles with regulators and competitors. A key indicator to watch is the percentage of shielded transactions—if it rises above 35% from the current 25%, that would show stronger real-world use of privacy features. The big question is whether ZEC can remain both compliant with regulations and truly private. The market’s response by the end of 2025 will be crucial.

What are people saying about ZEC?

Zcash is gaining momentum thanks to its strong privacy features, but can it live up to the hype? Here’s the latest:

1. Arthur Hayes predicts $10K per ZEC – Excitement mixed with doubt
2. Grayscale’s ZEC Trust attracts $46 million – Institutional interest grows
3. Shielded pool reaches $1.1 billion – Privacy use increases as 27% of ZEC becomes untraceable
4. Technical breakout sparks trader optimism – Price targets between $300 and $500

In-Depth Look

1. Arthur Hayes’ $10K ZEC Prediction

@ThorTorrens says: "$ZEC could hit $10,000 if 10% of offshore wealth adopts it."
"The real value of Zcash should be $5,301,240 per coin… Zcash acts as insurance against Bitcoin."
– @ThorTorrens (22K followers · 1.2M impressions · Oct 15, 2025)
See original post
What this means: This is a very optimistic view that could boost interest among everyday investors. However, the high price assumes widespread use of Zcash’s private transactions, which currently make up only 27% of all ZEC.

2. Grayscale’s $46 Million ZEC Purchase

@LazybearOFC reports: "Grayscale bought $46 million worth of ZEC."
This coincided with a 150% weekly price jump to $170 (as of Oct 8).
– @LazybearOFC (8.3K followers · 384K impressions · Oct 8, 2025)
See original post
What this means: Institutional buying like this is a positive sign, showing confidence beyond just retail traders. Still, ZEC’s price is 88% below its all-time high from 2016 despite recent gains.

3. Privacy Adoption Hits New High

According to Coinspeaker, 27% of ZEC is now shielded (private), totaling $1.12 billion in value as of Oct 13. This is an 11% increase in just five days and the largest private pool since 2021.
Read more
What this means: Growing use of Zcash’s privacy features shows real demand beyond speculation. However, upcoming EU regulations banning privacy coins in 2027 could pose challenges.

4. Technical Analysis: Breakout and Overbought Signals

CCN reports that ZEC broke a nearly 8-year downtrend on Sept 29, but the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hit 92.7, indicating it’s very overbought—the highest since 2016. Analysts are divided on whether the price will correct to $170 or push higher to $300.
Read more
What this means: The technical outlook is mixed. While momentum favors higher prices, there’s risk of a sell-off if support at $178 fails. Data from Bybit shows $21 million in long positions versus $3 million in shorts, suggesting potential for sharp moves.

Conclusion

The overall view on Zcash is optimistic but cautious. Arthur Hayes’ bold price targets, rising privacy adoption, and Grayscale’s institutional support are strong positives. However, high market leverage (open interest at 821 million) and looming regulations create risks. Keep an eye on the Nov 18 halving, when miner rewards drop to 1.56 ZEC per block, which could reduce supply if demand for shielded transactions continues to grow.

What is the latest news about ZEC?

Zcash is gaining attention as a privacy-focused cryptocurrency, reaching multi-year highs thanks to positive forecasts and upgrades in its ecosystem. However, its long-term success depends on wider adoption.

1. Arthur Hayes’ $10K Prediction (October 28, 2025) – The BitMEX co-founder’s prediction caused a 30% price jump in one day.
2. Solana Privacy Integration (October 27, 2025) – Wrapped ZEC tokens on Solana are becoming popular, even though they don’t fully offer Zcash’s privacy features.
3. Halving Countdown (Mid-November 2025) – Miner rewards will be cut in half, reducing supply and attracting institutional interest.

Deep Dive

1. Arthur Hayes’ $10K Prediction (October 28, 2025)

Overview: On October 26, Arthur Hayes tweeted that Zcash (ZEC) could reach $10,000. This sparked a 30% price increase to $360 and tripled trading volume to $1.3 billion. Hayes believes Zcash’s advanced privacy technology, called zk-SNARKs, is becoming more important as concerns grow over government digital currencies tracking transactions.
What this means: Hayes’ prediction created excitement among retail investors, but experts point out that only about 27.5% of ZEC transactions are actually private (shielded). For the price to keep rising, more people need to use Zcash’s privacy features in everyday transactions, not just trade it speculatively. (NewsBTC)

2. Solana Privacy Integration (October 27, 2025)

Overview: Wrapped ZEC tokens on the Solana blockchain have seen $9.5 million in trading since October 16, mainly through the Jupiter decentralized exchange. A company called Encifher introduced encryption technology that hides balances, allowing private decentralized finance (DeFi) activities. However, the wrapped ZEC tokens themselves don’t have Zcash’s native privacy features.
What this means: Expanding ZEC to other blockchains like Solana makes it easier to access, but it also weakens Zcash’s main selling point—privacy. The success of this move depends on whether users adopt Encifher’s privacy layer rather than just trading the tokens openly. (CoinJournal)

3. Halving Countdown (Mid-November 2025)

Overview: Zcash’s third halving event, expected between November 15 and 20, will reduce miner rewards from 1.56 ZEC to 0.78 ZEC per block. This reduction limits new supply. Meanwhile, Grayscale’s ZEC Trust reported $66 million in assets under management as of October 21, showing growing institutional interest before the halving.
What this means: With fewer new coins entering the market, scarcity could increase, potentially driving prices higher. However, ZEC has already gained 702% this year, so much of this optimism might be priced in. Keep an eye on the growth of shielded (private) transactions, which currently total 4.5 million ZEC, after the halving for signs of real demand. (CCN)

Conclusion

Zcash’s recent price surge is driven by high-profile endorsements, new cross-chain options, and supply cuts similar to Bitcoin’s halving events. However, its future depends on whether more users adopt its privacy features. The upcoming halving in November will be a key test: will ZEC solidify its reputation as the “privacy Bitcoin,” or will it reveal itself as a price rally fueled mainly by hype? Watch the ratio of private (shielded) to public transactions in the last quarter of 2025 for important clues.

What is expected in the development of ZEC?

Zcash’s roadmap highlights key upgrades and growth plans:

1. Third Halving (November 2025) – Miner rewards cut in half to 0.78125 ZEC per block.
2. NU7 Network Upgrade (2026) – Adds quantum-resistant security and faster private transactions.
3. Zebrad Node Migration (Ongoing) – Moving from older C++ software to a more secure Rust-based system.
4. Cross-Chain Integrations (Q1 2026) – New partnerships to improve Zcash’s use with other blockchains and decentralized finance (DeFi).

Deep Dive

1. Third Halving (November 2025)

What’s happening: Zcash will reduce the rewards miners get for validating transactions by 50%, from 1.5625 to 0.78125 ZEC per block. This is similar to Bitcoin’s approach to controlling supply. Since only about 16.2 million of the total 21 million ZEC coins are currently available, this could tighten supply.
Why it matters: This scarcity could increase demand, which is good for price, but it might also make mining less profitable. Historically, these halving events cause price swings. ZEC’s past 739% price jump over 90 days shows some of this is already expected.

2. NU7 Network Upgrade (2026)

What’s happening: The NU7 upgrade will improve Zcash’s privacy features by adding protection against future quantum computers and speeding up shielded (private) transactions. This comes after a recent 15% monthly increase in private transactions.
Why it matters: This upgrade strengthens Zcash’s privacy edge compared to competitors like Monero. If done well, it could attract more institutional users, but timing and execution are key.

3. Zebrad Node Migration (Ongoing)

What’s happening: Zcash is replacing its old node software (zcashd written in C++) with a new one called zebrad built in Rust, a programming language known for security and reliability.
Why it matters: While this won’t have an immediate impact, it’s important for future upgrades like NU7. A smooth transition will make the network stronger and easier to develop on, but delays could slow progress.

4. Cross-Chain Integrations (Q1 2026)

What’s happening: Zcash is partnering with projects like Router Protocol to enable easy swapping between Zcash and other blockchains (like Ethereum). Also, NymVPN will allow users to pay for private VPN services using shielded ZEC.
Why it matters: These partnerships make Zcash more useful beyond just privacy-focused users by connecting it with the broader decentralized finance ecosystem.

Conclusion

Zcash’s roadmap combines important technical updates with efforts to grow its ecosystem. Privacy remains its core strength, but challenges like regulatory concerns and reduced miner rewards after the halving could impact momentum. With private transactions increasing and new partnerships underway, Zcash’s “privacy-as-a-service” approach may have potential to expand well beyond its current niche.

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What updates are there in the ZEC code base?

Zcash’s software received major updates in 2025, focusing on improving privacy, scalability, and the ability to work across different blockchain networks.

1. Network Upgrade 6.1 (October 2025) – Improved cross-chain swaps and faster, more efficient private transactions.
2. Zcashd 6.3.0 (August 2025) – Important security fixes and performance improvements.
3. Zashi CrossPay (September 2025) – A privacy-first way to swap ZEC across blockchains using Near Intents technology.

Deep Dive

1. Network Upgrade 6.1 (October 2025)

Overview: This update makes it easier for Zcash to work with other blockchain platforms like THORSwap. It allows users to send shielded ZEC (private Zcash coins) across different blockchains without revealing any personal transaction details.

The upgrade also introduces a new, unified address format that simplifies private transactions, making them easier for users. Additionally, it speeds up the cryptographic process (called zk-SNARKs) that keeps transactions private, reducing transaction times by about 15% (Source).

What this means: This is positive news for ZEC because it expands its use in decentralized finance (DeFi) while keeping user privacy intact. Users can now securely swap ZEC across different blockchains, which could increase demand for private transactions.

2. Zcashd 6.3.0 (August 2025)

Overview: This is an important software update for Zcash nodes (the computers that help run the network). It fixes security issues found in earlier versions and requires users to upgrade by August 6 to avoid problems.

The update also improves memory usage, reducing how much RAM nodes need by 20%, and fixes a bug that could delay private transactions. It also prepares the network for a future upgrade to Zebra, a new node software written in Rust for better performance (Source).

What this means: This update is mainly maintenance, so it doesn’t directly affect ZEC’s price. However, it helps keep the network stable and secure, especially important before the upcoming halving event in November. Node operators must upgrade to keep their services running smoothly.

3. Zashi CrossPay (September 2025)

Overview: Zashi wallet introduced CrossPay, a feature that lets users swap shielded ZEC on decentralized exchanges using Near Protocol’s Intents system.

This technology uses zero-knowledge proofs to confirm swaps without revealing wallet balances or transaction history. Early reports show a 30% increase in private transaction volume after the launch (Source).

What this means: This is good news for ZEC because it combines privacy with easy access to DeFi markets. Users can now privately access liquidity pools, narrowing the privacy gap compared to coins without privacy features.

Conclusion

Zcash’s 2025 updates focus on making privacy more scalable and compatible with other blockchains, meeting the growing demand for confidential DeFi solutions. Network Upgrade 6.1 and Zashi CrossPay help position ZEC as a key privacy layer in cross-chain ecosystems. The big question remains: how will regulators respond to these strong privacy features as Zcash adoption continues to grow?