Why did the price of ADA fall?

Cardano (ADA) dropped 6.37% in the last 24 hours, underperforming the overall crypto market, which fell 4.25%. Here’s why:

1. Market-wide sell-off – A $1.5 billion wave of liquidations happened after Ethereum (ETH) fell below $4,000, pulling altcoins like ADA down.
2. Regulatory delay – The SEC postponed its decision on Grayscale’s Cardano ETF until October 26, 2025.
3. Technical breakdown – ADA fell below a key support level at $0.79, entering a bearish zone based on Fibonacci retracement levels.

Deep Dive

1. Market Liquidation Cascade (Negative Impact)

What happened: On September 24, Ethereum’s price dropped below $4,000, triggering $1.5 billion in forced sell-offs (Bitget). This caused ADA and other altcoins like SOL and DOGE to fall between 5% and 10%.

Why it matters: Many traders use borrowed money (leverage) to trade crypto. When prices fall quickly, these positions get liquidated, adding more selling pressure. ADA’s trading volume surged 76% to $1.85 billion, showing panic selling. The Fear & Greed Index, which measures market sentiment, dropped to "Neutral" (41), indicating less willingness to take risks.

What to watch: If Ethereum can climb back above $4,100, altcoins like ADA might stabilize. If not, the downward trend could continue.

2. Delayed ETF Catalyst (Negative Impact)

What happened: The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) delayed its decision on Grayscale’s Cardano ETF until October 26, 2025 (U.Today). Earlier, there was optimism with an 87% chance of approval, but now odds have dropped to 75%.

Why it matters: Institutional investors often wait for clear regulatory signals before investing heavily. This delay means they might hold off on buying ADA. Also, ADA’s price is now closely tied to Bitcoin’s movements (correlation of 0.89), making it sensitive to big events like the $22.6 billion Bitcoin and Ethereum options expiry on Friday.

3. Technical Weakness (Mixed Impact)

What happened: ADA’s price fell below an important support level at $0.79, entering a Fibonacci retracement zone between $0.76 and $0.78. Technical indicators show bearish momentum: the RSI (Relative Strength Index) is at 41.38, which is not yet oversold, and the MACD histogram is negative (-0.0107).

Why it matters: Traders are watching the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $0.7348 as the next support level. If ADA closes above $0.81 daily, it could reverse the bearish trend. However, resistance at the 7-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) around $0.863 could make upward moves difficult.

Conclusion

ADA’s recent drop reflects a combination of market-wide selling, delayed regulatory approval for an ETF, and technical breakdowns. While upcoming upgrades like Leios (aiming for 1 million transactions per second) and the Midnight privacy chain offer promising long-term growth, short-term price action depends heavily on Bitcoin’s stability.

Key point to watch: Can ADA hold the $0.74 support level ahead of Friday’s options expiry?

What could affect the price of ADA?

Cardano’s price is balancing between upcoming network upgrades and uncertainty around an ETF approval.

1. Network Upgrades – A $71 million community-funded plan aims to improve scalability and adoption (positive outlook).
2. ETF Approval Chances – The SEC will decide on Grayscale’s ADA ETF by October 2025 (uncertain impact).
3. Governance Risks – A new Constitutional Committee must be formed by September to avoid delays in key decisions (negative outlook).

Deep Dive

1. Protocol Upgrades & Community Funding (Positive Impact)

Overview:
In August 2025, the Cardano community approved withdrawing $71 million (96 million ADA) from its treasury to fund important upgrades. These include Ouroboros Leios (which improves how the network reaches consensus), Hydra (which helps the network handle more transactions), and Project Acropolis (which makes running nodes more flexible). Payments will be released based on milestones, and third-party audits by Intersect will help keep the process transparent and accountable.

What this means:
These upgrades are expected to make the Cardano network faster and more efficient, encourage more developers to build on it, and improve its ability to work with other blockchains. In the past, big upgrades like Alonzo (which introduced smart contracts) have led to price increases of 30-50%.

2. Grayscale’s ADA ETF & Regulatory Outlook (Mixed Impact)

Overview:
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will decide by October 26, 2025, whether to approve Grayscale’s spot ADA ETF. Current market odds suggest about a 79% chance of approval, helped by Cardano’s recent classification as a commodity under the 2025 Clarity Act.

What this means:
If approved, the ETF could bring significant investment into ADA, similar to what happened with Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs (for example, Bitwise’s ETH ETF attracted $1.2 billion in the first quarter of 2025). However, if the SEC rejects the ETF, ADA’s price could drop sharply, similar to how Solana (SOL) fell 18% after its ETF delay in June 2025.

3. Governance Transition Risks (Negative Impact)

Overview:
Cardano’s current Interim Constitutional Committee’s term ends on September 6. If a new committee isn’t formed by then, important functions like treasury withdrawals and network upgrades (hard forks) will be paused until elections in 2026.

What this means:
This delay could slow down important improvements and discourage developers from working on Cardano. The market has shown sensitivity to governance issues before—ADA’s price dropped 9% during governance debates in May 2025.

Conclusion

Cardano’s price outlook depends on successfully rolling out upgrades to increase its usefulness while navigating regulatory and governance challenges. Approval of the ADA ETF could spark a rally toward $1.20 (the Fibonacci 161.8% level), but failing to establish a new Constitutional Committee risks stalling progress. Will ADA’s technical improvements outpace regulatory and governance hurdles?

What are people saying about ADA?

The Cardano (ADA) community is divided between hopeful optimism and cautious concern. Here’s what’s trending right now:

1. Big investors, known as whales, sold $27 million worth of ADA, while everyday investors are holding steady.
2. A price target of $1.03 is gaining attention, supported by positive market patterns.
3. The upcoming Ouroboros Leios upgrade is creating urgency and debate among developers.
4. A recent “midnight airdrop” event is encouraging growth in the Cardano ecosystem.

Deep Dive

1. Whale Sell-Off Sparks Concern

@ali_charts reports:
“Whales sold 30 million ADA in the past week! If the price falls below $0.68, it could drop further to $0.60.”
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What this means: This is a bearish sign for ADA. When large holders sell off, it often leads to a price decline. The $0.68 to $0.72 price range is now a key support level to watch.

2. Technical Patterns Suggest Price Rally

@Cardanians_io notes:
“ADA looks close to reclaiming $1. The weekly chart shows a breakout from a 4-month falling wedge pattern, with a potential next target of $1.18.”
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What this means: This is a bullish sign. If ADA stays above $0.81, it could rise by about 55%. Growth in decentralized finance (DeFi) on Cardano, with $400 million in total value locked (up 72% in July), supports this outlook.

3. Midnight Airdrop Boosts Engagement

@TapTools shares:
“3.08% of NIGHT tokens have been claimed through Ledger and Trezor wallets, with over 35,000 wallets participating despite some firmware issues.”
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What this means: This is a mixed but mostly positive sign. While more people are joining the ecosystem, some technical problems could slow onboarding. If successful, this event could increase ADA’s real-world use cases.

4. Ouroboros Leios Upgrade Delays Cause Frustration

@InputOutputHK reports:
“Ouroboros Leios is absolutely necessary and has been delayed too long. We need it now.” – Charles Hoskinson (Cardano founder)
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What this means: Neutral for now. The upgrade promises faster transaction speeds similar to Solana, but delays could let competitors gain an edge. Keep an eye on testnet progress expected by October.

Conclusion

The outlook for Cardano is mixed. There’s strong potential for a technical breakout, but concerns remain due to large investor sell-offs and upgrade delays. Traders are watching for ADA to break above $0.89 to confirm bullish momentum, while support at $0.68 is critical. Also, the recent NIGHT token claims and rising open interest ($1.74 billion) suggest growing market activity. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 41 indicates momentum is not overheated, so caution is advised.

What is the latest news about ADA?

Cardano is navigating a challenging market and important regulatory changes while keeping an eye on potential ETF approval. Here are the key updates:

1. Market Sell-Off Impact (September 24, 2025) – ADA dropped 5% during a $1.5 billion crypto sell-off.
2. Grayscale ETF Regulatory Update (September 23, 2025) – The SEC approved a new ETF framework, but Cardano’s ETF approval is still pending.
3. Spot ADA ETF Approval Chances Rise (September 23, 2025) – Experts see Cardano as a leading candidate for the next crypto ETF approval.

Deep Dive

1. Market Sell-Off Impact (September 24, 2025)

Overview:
Cardano’s price fell 5% amid a larger crypto market sell-off triggered by Ethereum dropping below $4,000. This caused over $1.5 billion in crypto positions to be liquidated, hitting altcoins like ADA, SOL, and DOGE the hardest. Large holders selling big amounts, such as 1,000 ETH, made the situation worse.

What this means:
This shows Cardano’s price is sensitive to broader market risks like Federal Reserve policy uncertainty and liquidity issues in altcoins. Still, Cardano’s 39% gain over the past 90 days (compared to Bitcoin’s 7% loss) indicates it has stronger mid-term resilience.

(Bitget)

2. Grayscale ETF Regulatory Shift (September 23, 2025)

Overview:
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved a new rule (Rule 8.201-E) that lets crypto ETFs list under a general standard instead of going through individual reviews. While Grayscale’s Ethereum ETFs benefited from this, their Cardano ETF is still under review.

What this means:
This new rule speeds up ETF launches for some cryptocurrencies but leaves Cardano’s ETF approval uncertain. The SEC’s uneven approach—approving ETFs for XRP and DOGE but delaying Cardano—shows ongoing debates about how to classify these assets.

(Bitget)

3. Spot ADA ETF Odds Surge (September 23, 2025)

Overview:
With ETFs for XRP and DOGE now approved, Cardano is seen as a top candidate for the next round. Analysts point to ADA’s inclusion in Grayscale’s CoinDesk Crypto 5 ETF (GDLC) and market predictions showing about a 90% chance of approval in 2025.

What this means:
If Cardano’s ETF gets approved, it could attract more institutional investors, similar to what happened with Bitcoin and Ethereum after their ETF approvals. However, ADA’s recent 17% drop over the past week shows some investors remain cautious about short-term gains.

(CoinJar)

Conclusion

Cardano is facing mixed signals: price drops due to market pressures contrast with promising ETF prospects and a $71 million community-funded upgrade project. The big question is whether regulatory clarity or growing decentralized finance (DeFi) use will help balance out market ups and downs. Keep an eye on SEC decisions and the October 26 deadline for Grayscale’s ADA ETF ruling.

What is expected in the development of ADA?

Cardano is moving forward with several key updates:

1. Ouroboros Leios Upgrade (Q4 2025) – A system upgrade to speed up transactions and improve security.
2. Hydra Layer-2 Scaling (2025–2026) – A technology to handle many transactions at once, making the network faster.
3. Cardano Card Launch (Q4 2025) – A new debit card that lets you spend ADA and stablecoins easily through Apple Pay and Google Pay.
4. Midnight Network Airdrop Ends (October 2025) – Final phase of distributing privacy-focused tokens.
5. Account Enhancement CIP (2026) – Allows apps to accept fees in different tokens and supports small payments.

Deep Dive

1. Ouroboros Leios Upgrade (Q4 2025)

What it is:
This upgrade improves how Cardano processes transactions, making it faster without sacrificing security or decentralization. Founder Charles Hoskinson called this update "competitively necessary" (Input Output).

Why it matters:
Faster transactions could attract more financial applications and institutional users to Cardano, which is good news for ADA. However, if there are delays or technical challenges, it might slow down adoption.

2. Hydra Layer-2 Scaling (2025–2026)

What it is:
Hydra is Cardano’s solution to handle millions of transactions per second by processing them in parallel. It’s part of a $71 million community-funded plan (Bitcoinist).

Why it matters:
If successful, Hydra will reduce network congestion and lower fees, which is positive. But since it’s being rolled out in phases, there’s a risk it could fall behind other similar technologies like Ethereum’s rollups.

3. Cardano Card Launch (Q4 2025)

What it is:
This new debit card lets users spend ADA, Bitcoin, and stablecoins through popular payment platforms like Apple Pay and Google Pay. It’s designed to make using Cardano in everyday life easier (Cardanians_io).

Why it matters:
This could boost ADA adoption by making it simple for everyday users to spend their crypto. However, the project depends on meeting regulatory requirements and partnering with payment providers.

4. Midnight Network Airdrop Ends (October 2025)

What it is:
The Midnight Network is distributing NIGHT tokens to users via Ledger and Trezor wallets. The airdrop will close around October 4, 2025. This is part of Cardano’s effort to build privacy-focused blockchain features (Cardanians_io).

Why it matters:
While the airdrop may increase short-term interest, the long-term success of Midnight depends on developer support and clear privacy regulations.

5. Account Enhancement CIP (2026)

What it is:
This proposal allows decentralized apps (dApps) to accept fees in tokens other than ADA and supports small payments, improving user experience (Bitcoinist).

Why it matters:
If implemented, it could open up new possibilities for DeFi applications on Cardano. However, it’s still in draft form with no confirmed launch date.

Conclusion

Cardano’s roadmap combines important technical improvements like Ouroboros Leios and Hydra with practical features like the Cardano Card and ecosystem growth through Midnight. The $71 million community-funded projects show strong governance but depend on timely delivery. With ADA down 17% over the past month amid a weak market, these upgrades could be key to boosting network activity and investor confidence.

What updates are there in the ADA code base?

Cardano’s technology is moving forward with important upgrades and new tools for developers.

1. $71M Fund Approved for Core Upgrades (August 4, 2025) – Money allocated to improve Hydra, Leios, and the node system.
2. CNCLI v6.6.0 Released (August 4, 2025) – Better tools for stake pool operators to help keep the network running smoothly.
3. Faster Rollout of Ouroboros Leios (September 8, 2025) – Founder urges speeding up the next-generation consensus protocol.

In-Depth Look

1. $71M Fund Approved for Core Upgrades (August 4, 2025)

What happened: The Cardano community voted to spend $71 million over the next year to improve the platform’s scalability and decentralization.

Key projects include:

• Hydra: A system that processes transactions off the main blockchain to increase speed, especially for decentralized finance (DeFi) and gaming.
• Ouroboros Leios: An upgrade to Cardano’s consensus protocol aimed at handling more transactions per second without losing decentralization.
• Project Acropolis: Redesigning the node software to make it easier for developers to build and maintain.

Why it matters: This funding is a positive sign for ADA because it tackles key challenges that have limited Cardano’s growth. The money is released only after reaching specific goals, ensuring the projects stay on track. (Source)

2. CNCLI v6.6.0 Released (August 4, 2025)

What happened: The command-line tool for stake pool operators, called CNCLI, got important updates. These improvements help operators monitor block production and keep their nodes synchronized with the network.

Why it matters: While this update doesn’t directly affect ADA’s price, it’s crucial for the health of the Cardano network. Better tools mean operators can run more reliable nodes, supporting decentralization and uptime. (Source)

3. Faster Rollout of Ouroboros Leios (September 8, 2025)

What happened: Charles Hoskinson, Cardano’s founder, emphasized the need to speed up the launch of Ouroboros Leios, which was originally planned for 2026.

Why it matters: If delivered on time, Leios could significantly boost transaction speed and efficiency, helping Cardano compete with other blockchains. However, delays remain a possibility. (Source)

Conclusion

Cardano is making steady progress with community-backed upgrades aimed at improving scalability and infrastructure. Projects like Hydra and Leios have the potential to transform the platform, but their success depends on timely execution and developer support. The key question is how Cardano will balance fast innovation with its careful, peer-reviewed development process.