Why did the price of ADA fall?

Cardano (ADA) dropped 0.71% over the last 24 hours to $0.802, underperforming the overall crypto market, which rose by 1.23%. The main reasons are:

1. ETF Approval Delays – The SEC updated ETF rules but postponed decisions on ADA ETFs until November 2025.
2. Technical Weakness – ADA’s price remains below a key resistance level at $0.855, with bearish signals from technical indicators.
3. Shift in Altcoin Interest – Investors moved funds toward Solana (SOL), XRP ETFs, and Bitcoin amid mixed market feelings.

Deep Dive

1. Regulatory Delays (Negative Impact)

Overview:
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has simplified the ETF approval process by removing some filing requirements for altcoins (source). However, for assets like Cardano that don’t have futures regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) yet, there’s a mandatory 6-month waiting period. Since Cardano futures only started trading on May 19, 2025, the earliest an ADA ETF could be approved is November 19, 2025. This delay slows down potential big investments from institutions.

What this means:

• ADA is losing ground compared to XRP and SOL, which have ETF deadlines coming up sooner (October 24 and October 10).
• Grayscale’s application for an ADA ETF is still pending, which reduces speculative buying interest.

What to watch:
The SEC’s decision on WisdomTree’s XRP ETF by October 24 could renew optimism for ADA ETFs.

2. Technical Breakdown (Negative Impact)

Overview:
ADA’s price couldn’t stay above its 30-day simple moving average (SMA) of $0.849 or the Fibonacci retracement level at $0.878. The MACD indicator shows bearish momentum, and the RSI is at 44, indicating no strong buying pressure yet.

What this means:

• The immediate support level at $0.799 (the low from July 29) was broken, increasing the chance ADA could drop further to between $0.76 and $0.78.
• Trading volume increased by 38% to $1.04 billion, which often signals selling pressure during a price drop.

Key level:
If ADA closes above $0.832 (the 61.8% Fibonacci level), it could signal a reversal of the current downtrend.

3. Shift in Altcoin Sentiment (Mixed Impact)

Overview:
Although ADA saw $93 million in ETF inflows last week (CoinShares), the overall Altcoin Season Index dropped 7% this week. Investors are moving toward:

• Bitcoin (which gained 1.23% in market dominance)
• Solana (with $291 million in ETF inflows)
• XRP (with an ETF decision deadline on October 24)

What this means:
After a strong 90-day rally of 47%, ADA investors are taking profits. This is happening alongside reduced excitement about ADA ETFs and growing interest in other coins with nearer-term catalysts.

Conclusion

Cardano’s recent price drop reflects delays in ETF approvals, technical signs of weakening after a strong third quarter, and investors shifting money to assets with clearer upcoming events.

Key level to watch: The 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $0.736. If ADA falls below this, it could lead to further losses down to $0.70.

What could affect the price of ADA?

Cardano’s price is balancing between upcoming protocol upgrades and uncertainty around ETF approval.

1. Protocol Upgrades – A $71 million treasury-funded plan aims to boost scalability and adoption (positive outlook).
2. ETF Approval Chances – The SEC’s new process improves odds but delays are expected (mixed outlook).
3. Whale Activity – Large holders are buying more ADA, showing confidence but also risk of profit-taking (neutral outlook).

Deep Dive

1. Protocol Upgrades (Positive Impact)

Overview: Cardano’s community approved withdrawing 96 million ADA (about $71 million) from its treasury to fund key upgrades. These include Ouroboros Leios (improving scalability), Hydra (speeding up transactions with layer-2 technology), and Project Acropolis (making nodes more modular). Payments will be made based on milestones, with third-party oversight to ensure transparency.
What this means: If these upgrades succeed, Cardano’s network will run more efficiently, attract more developers, and strengthen its position among smart contract platforms. Past major upgrades, like Alonzo which introduced smart contracts, led to ADA price jumps of over 30%. However, delays or technical problems could hurt investor confidence.

2. ETF Approval (Mixed Impact)

Overview: The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) recently introduced simpler rules for approving ETFs, which could help altcoins like ADA get approved. Grayscale’s spot ADA ETF has a key deadline on October 26, 2025, with analysts estimating about a 75% chance of approval. But futures contracts linked to ADA must trade for at least six months on regulated exchanges (starting May 2025), which means the earliest approval might be November 2025.
What this means: If approved, ADA could see inflows similar to Bitcoin ETFs, which have attracted around $39 billion this year. However, short-term price drops (“sell-the-news” events) are common after such announcements. If approval is delayed or denied, ADA could pull back 15–20%, similar to what happened with Solana during its ETF-related setbacks.

3. Whale Accumulation (Neutral Impact)

Overview: Large ADA holders (with 1 million to 10 million ADA) bought 180 million tokens (about $145 million) in August, pushing ADA reserves on exchanges to their lowest since 2021. At the same time, derivatives trading (futures and options) reached $1.74 billion in open interest, near yearly highs, indicating many leveraged bets.
What this means: Whale buying often signals upcoming rallies—ADA surged 135% in July 2025 after similar activity. But high leverage in futures increases the risk of forced sell-offs if prices drop. A break below $0.76 could trigger liquidations exceeding $50 million, which would amplify downward pressure.

Conclusion

Cardano’s price will depend on successfully rolling out upgrades to compete with platforms like Ethereum and Solana, while also navigating the uncertain timeline for ETF approval. Keep an eye on the SEC’s October decision and whether ADA can hold support at $0.76. If both go well, ADA could retest $1.00 by the end of the year.

Will ETF optimism outweigh the risks of upgrade delays?

What are people saying about ADA?

The Cardano community is divided between optimism for a price breakout and concerns about large investors selling off. Here’s what’s trending:

1. Price target of $1.03 by August – positive technical signals 📈
2. 3.7% price drop raises caution – important support at $0.75 🚨
3. Whales sold 270 million ADA – increased selling pressure 🐋

Deep Dive

1. Bullish $1.03 forecast by August

John Morgan (@johnmorganFL) predicts Cardano’s price will rise 26% to $1.03 by August 16, 2025, with more than half of the days showing gains and a high Fear & Greed Index score indicating strong market confidence.
– Original post
What this means: This outlook is positive for ADA. When technical indicators and market sentiment align, it often leads to increased buying. If Cardano’s price breaks above $1, it could trigger a wave of buying driven by fear of missing out (FOMO).

2. Bearish signals after 3.7% dip

CoinMarketCap reports that ADA’s price fell 3.7% to $0.795 on July 29, testing a key support level at $0.75. If this support fails, the price could drop further to around $0.65.
– Original post
What this means: This is a warning sign for ADA holders. Breaking below important support levels can lead to more selling as traders try to limit losses. The $0.75 level is critical—if it doesn’t hold, the price may decline further.

3. Whales sell 270 million ADA

Santiment reports that large investors, known as whales, sold 270 million ADA (worth about $216 million) in one week—the biggest sell-off since May 2025. At the same time, exchanges saw inflows of $218 million worth of ADA.
– Original post
What this means: This short-term selling pressure is bearish, but it could be a positive sign in the long run. Whales often sell to take profits but tend to buy back later at lower prices, which can lead to a price rebound.

Conclusion

The outlook for Cardano is mixed. On one hand, technical analysis points to a potential rise to $1.03, while on the other, large investor selling and market uncertainty create volatility. Retail traders are debating whether Cardano can break above $1, while institutions like Franklin Templeton continue to support the network by running nodes—a sign of confidence. Keep an eye on the $1 resistance level: a strong move above it could confirm upward momentum, while failure to break through may lead to continued sideways trading.

What is the latest news about ADA?

Cardano is adapting to changing regulations and making it easier for people to use its platform, despite mixed opinions. Here are the key updates:

1. SEC Simplifies ETF Approval Process (September 29, 2025) – New rules speed up approval for altcoin ETFs, including Cardano’s filings.
2. eToro Introduces Tiered Staking for ADA (September 29, 2025) – U.S. users can earn up to 90% rewards by staking ADA on eToro.
3. Community Supports Growth Projects (September 8, 2025) – Proposals approved to increase liquidity and user engagement in the Cardano ecosystem.

In-Depth Look

1. SEC Simplifies ETF Approval Process (September 29, 2025)

What happened:
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) removed the need for individual filings (called 19b-4) for crypto ETFs. Instead, they now use a general standard that makes the approval process faster. Cardano’s ETF application, managed by Grayscale, is currently under review with a decision expected by October 26, 2025. The focus has shifted to reviewing S-1 registration forms, which could speed things up.

Why it matters:
This is good news for ADA because quicker approvals might bring more institutional investors. However, there’s a catch: ADA’s approval depends on when its futures contracts started trading. If futures began after May 2025, the approval might be delayed until November. (Source: CoinJournal)

2. eToro Introduces Tiered Staking for ADA (September 29, 2025)

What happened:
eToro launched a new staking program for ADA holders in the U.S., offering six reward levels ranging from 45% to 90%, based on how long users stay invested. They also plan to add more cryptocurrencies to their staking options, supporting Cardano’s goal to reach more everyday users.

Why it matters:
This development is somewhat positive because it makes ADA more useful and encourages people to hold their coins longer. However, it also creates competition with Cardano’s own staking system. The rewards depend on how well eToro manages the program. (Source: Coinspeaker)

3. Community Supports Growth Projects (September 8, 2025)

What happened:
The Cardano community approved a $5 million ADA loan to help expand exchange listings and retail partnerships. Additionally, @Zealy_io teamed up with @MinswapDEX to create interactive challenges that reward users for trading on decentralized exchanges (DEXs). Meanwhile, @MLabs10 launched Feesaswap, a tool that lets users pay transaction fees with any native token.

Why it matters:
This is a positive sign showing strong community support. These projects aim to improve liquidity (making it easier to buy and sell ADA), increase user activity, and give developers more flexibility—important for competing with other platforms like Ethereum and Solana. (Source: Cardanians_io)

Conclusion

Cardano is moving forward by navigating regulatory changes, introducing new staking options, and encouraging community-led growth. While the outcome of ETF approvals depends on specific rules, the ongoing retail and developer activity suggests a healthy ecosystem. With important deadlines and upgrades coming up, the big question is whether ADA’s technical progress will lead to steady price gains.

What is expected in the development of ADA?

Cardano’s development plan is focused on improving scalability, governance, and practical uses:

1. Midnight Sidechain Launch (November 2025) – A privacy-focused blockchain with a cross-chain token giveaway
2. Ouroboros Leios Upgrade (Q4 2025) – Boosts transaction speed and efficiency
3. Cardano Card Release (Q4 2025) – A debit card for spending ADA and other cryptocurrencies with Apple/Google Pay
4. Hydra Upgrades (2025-2026) – Enhances microtransactions and Layer-2 scaling
5. Treasury-Funded Core Upgrades – $71 million approved by the community for protocol improvements

Deep Dive

1. Midnight Sidechain Launch (November 2025)

Overview: Cardano will launch the Midnight sidechain, which focuses on privacy, in November. It will distribute $NIGHT governance tokens to holders of ADA, BTC, ETH, and SOL through the Glacier Drop airdrop. Midnight supports confidential smart contracts using advanced cryptography called zero-knowledge proofs and lets users pay fees with various cryptocurrencies.

What this means: This is a positive step for ADA’s ability to work with other blockchains, helping connect different crypto networks. However, if users don’t adopt cross-chain features quickly, it could slow down progress. The airdrop might increase network activity temporarily but could attract regulatory attention.

2. Ouroboros Leios Implementation (Q4 2025)

Overview: The Leios upgrade is designed to make Cardano faster by increasing transaction capacity by 4 to 6 times and lowering delays. This upgrade is part of a $71 million community-approved plan announced in August 2025 (Cardano Forum).

What this means: This upgrade is crucial for Cardano to compete with other popular blockchains like Solana and Ethereum, especially in decentralized finance (DeFi). If implemented smoothly, it could reduce transaction fees caused by network congestion. However, it depends on how well node operators adopt the changes.

3. Cardano Card Release (Q4 2025)

Overview: Cardano plans to launch a physical and virtual debit card that allows users to spend ADA and other cryptocurrencies through Apple Pay and Google Pay. Users will continue to earn staking rewards even while spending. This card is being developed with financial technology partners.

What this means: This move could make Cardano more useful for everyday spending and attract more retail users. The success of the card depends on how many merchants accept it and how its fees compare to traditional payment methods.

4. Hydra Upgrades (2025-2026)

Overview: Hydra is Cardano’s Layer-2 scaling solution, and ongoing upgrades aim to support over 1 million transactions per second (TPS) for small payments. Recent tests reached 600,000 TPS with very fast confirmation times (Input Output HK).

What this means: These upgrades are important for applications like gaming and DeFi that need fast, low-cost transactions. Delays could allow competitors like Solana to gain an edge, but a successful rollout could attract large institutional participants.

Conclusion

Cardano’s roadmap combines important technical improvements (Leios, Hydra) with efforts to grow its ecosystem (Midnight, payment cards). The $71 million treasury funding shows strong community support but also brings challenges in execution. With ADA up 49% in Q3 2025, the big question is whether these upgrades can keep Cardano competitive against Ethereum’s Pectra upgrade and Solana’s Firedancer.

What updates are there in the ADA code base?

Cardano is moving forward with important upgrades funded by its community, focusing on improving performance and user experience.

1. Ouroboros Leios Acceleration (September 8, 2025) – A key update to speed up transaction processing.
2. $71 Million Core Protocol Funding (August 4, 2025) – Community-approved budget for major improvements like Hydra and Mithril.
3. Feesaswap Integration (September 8, 2025) – Lets users pay transaction fees using any native token, not just ADA.

In-Depth Look

1. Ouroboros Leios Acceleration (September 8, 2025)

What it is: Cardano’s founder, Charles Hoskinson, highlighted the need to upgrade the network’s core system, called Ouroboros Leios. This upgrade is designed to make the network much faster by handling more transactions at once without losing security or decentralization.

The update tackles current slowdowns in how blocks of transactions are shared and confirmed across the network. It introduces new ways to process transactions in parallel and combines digital signatures more efficiently. This could increase Cardano’s capacity by over 10 times, helping it compete with faster blockchain platforms.

Why it matters: Faster transaction speeds and quicker confirmation times make Cardano more attractive for decentralized finance (DeFi) apps and blockchain-based games. Although this upgrade was initially planned for 2028, the push to deliver it sooner shows strong commitment to growth. (Source)

2. $71 Million Core Protocol Funding (August 4, 2025)

What it is: Cardano’s community voted to allocate 96 million ADA (about $71 million) to support a year-long plan focused on making the network faster and easier to use.

Key projects funded include:

• Hydra: A Layer-2 technology that can handle over 1 million transactions per second, ideal for small payments.
• Mithril: A tool that helps nodes sync faster and lowers the cost of running the network.
• Project Acropolis: A new design for nodes that makes it easier for developers to build and maintain the network.

Why it matters: This funding is a positive sign because it’s tied to clear goals and milestones. If successful, Cardano could become a leader in flexible and scalable blockchain technology. However, there are risks in delivering all these improvements on time. (Source)

3. Feesaswap Integration (September 8, 2025)

What it is: MLabs10 introduced Feesaswap, a new feature that lets users pay Cardano transaction fees using any native token, such as stablecoins, instead of only ADA.

This system uses a decentralized pool that automatically converts these tokens into ADA behind the scenes, making the process simple for users.

Why it matters: This lowers the barrier for new users and projects to interact with Cardano, encouraging wider adoption while keeping ADA as the main currency for settling transactions. (Source)

Conclusion

Cardano is actively improving its network through community-backed upgrades aimed at scalability and ease of use. While challenges like delays and governance complexities exist, these developments highlight Cardano’s commitment to research-driven, modular growth. The upcoming milestone tracking will be key to seeing how quickly Ouroboros Leios reaches full deployment.